Chapter 24: Shorting Germany (4)

At 4:05, the delay data was all cleared, and the exchange rate was fixed above 5305, but everyone knew that this was by no means the final result, but the German trading hours were closed, and then the Chicago Board of Trade in the United States would continue to trade, even if the mark was not a key variety in the United States, there was still a lot of reference value - the closing price in the United States would determine the opening price of the next day in Germany.

The telegram from the United States confirmed their suspicions: the American market jumped sharply, and the price directly hit 5500, and by 4:25, the trading price was below 5700, and there were few buys......

William struggled to squeeze himself out of the crowd of envious, jealous, and manic peers to report to Contini, only to find that the two were nowhere to be found - taking advantage of the rampaging of the exchange just now, Contini and Antonio hurriedly pulled away, leaving only a note and a check for $10,000 for William.

"Mr. William: Thank you for your perfect work today, my impulsiveness and immaturity have troubled you, please help me close the equivalent of $4 million at a price above 6,000 on the next trading day, which I held more on my impulse. The check is a reward for your work, good luck and hope to continue to have a good time working together in the future! ”

William took a deep breath, and his hand holding the check couldn't help but tremble - he got the equivalent of 20 years of after-tax salary for an average engineer in one day, what a generous patron!

He knows how much money Contini makes, which may be a height that he will not be able to reach in his lifetime, but he is not jealous because the client is taking a huge risk - as long as the price continues to go up by 5 percent, the client's margin will evaporate completely. Only those who can take risks can have profits, and the greater the risk, the higher the returns, which is an unbreakable concept in the speculative world.

[Some students said that they didn't understand the money-making routine, so I will give a simple example: the essence of 4000:1 short selling is that you borrow 4000 marks from an unspecified counterparty who is optimistic about the appreciation of the mark, and then exchange it for 1 dollar.

Now you have $1 on your account, and when the mark rate becomes 8000:1 to close the position, you only need to sell $0.5 to get 4000 marks, and then return it to your opponent, and the other $0.5 is your net earnings. Of course, this is only a theoretical return, and the actual transaction also involves spreads, handling fees, overnight fees, etc., which need to be deducted, and the actual net income of this operation will be less than $0.5, but not much less, at least more than 0.45. 】

Contini's position is basically close to 3925, and the position is about 16 million US dollars, if it is settled at a price of about 6000, it is equivalent to earning more than 5 million US dollars in one day! And William has reason to believe that 6,000 will never be the end of the depreciation of the mark, and it is possible to fall below the 10,000 mark, but why should customers urgently close the 4 million position? Does he think things are going on and on?

Since the client has explicitly entrusted, he can only do so, of course, he is determined to find a good price to sell without going against the client's wishes, and seek the maximum benefit for the client - this is a manifestation of the ability of a good broker.

"Uncle Antonio, I made a mistake today, a big mistake...... "In the hotel where he was staying, Contini lowered his head and reviewed, "I should not be too confident and impulsive, things will always change unexpectedly, and I can't overestimate it." ”

Antonio nodded, of course he knew what the mistake of Contini was, the two had agreed to hold a position of $10 million to $12 million, and in extreme cases it could not exceed $14 million - this was because Contini took out an additional $50,000 as a margin, but Contini not only broke through the $12 million mark early, but even 14 million rushed to the 16 million position, during which Antonio reminded him twice, but Contini didn't listen, I firmly believe that the news will come.

Of course, the news came, but it came too late, and it was close to the market, which was a very dangerous move, although Contini held a margin of nearly $800,000 to hold a position of up to $20 million, but under the effect of 25 times leverage, as long as the mark exchange rate rose by another 4%, the margin would all be wiped out, and Antonio had even made up his mind that if the situation was not good, he would order William to forcibly reduce his position in the last 5 minutes.

Fortunately, in the end, God did not disappoint the young master, and the news of the time came - this also made people break out in a cold sweat, and his heart was raised in his throat, and he was so nervous in the last few minutes.

Now that the situation has been reversed, the news is conclusive, and Contini is sincere in admitting his mistakes, he can't hold on to it - he is only a butler and not a boss after all.

He said softly: "Young master, don't blame me for talking too much, you can't make enough money, but you can lose it." In this turbulent market, although you have good cards and enough confidence, you have to prevent a mistake and lose everything, which I think you should learn from the master and the leader - the march into Rome is actually quite sure, but the leader himself stays in the rear of the attack and retreat, which is a lesson learned after suffering a big loss. Although it is inevitable that young people will suffer losses and fall into trouble, I still don't want you to encounter too many and too many setbacks! ”

"You're right, I'm hot-headed, it's easy to go ......crazy in the speculative market"

From the rally speech, persuading Grandini, welcoming Mussolini's march into Rome to opening a newspaper, writing "One Doctrine, One Party, One Leader", promoting transportation strategy, and starting with Mark loans, Contini has always been taking risks, almost pressing all his net worth to gamble, but every time he won the bet, which caused his self-inflated consciousness, thinking that he could do anything, today's crisis, which did not break out, finally reminded Contini of his own feeling at a critical moment - always walking a tightrope, sooner or later there will be a day when it falls.

Antonio looked at him with satisfaction: "Let's go over this matter, you don't have too much psychological pressure, after all, today you are the winner, you should celebrate for yourself......"

"It's still early, and I'm not sure if I don't get the money."

"Are you afraid that the exchange or bank will not give money?"

"If the mark is viciously devalued, Germany will soon restrict the flow of foreign exchange or even forcibly ban the interbank foreign exchange market, at that time no matter how much money is made on paper, it is only the right thing to get the money and leave Germany."

"Okay, I'll ......arrange it later," Antonio asked, "is Mark really going to continue to depreciate significantly?" ”

"Definitely! Because the German government will not pay reparations, and France and Belgium are unwilling to make concessions, it is impossible to reach an agreement for the rest of December, and after the New Year, France and Belgium will definitely send troops if they do not get the money, and Germany is simply powerless to resist...... "Contini sighed, "Once the Ruhr area is occupied, the heart of the German economy will stop beating, let alone 6,000 in the future, even 60,000, 600,000 marks may not be able to exchange for 1 dollar!" ”

Contini is well aware that when the depreciation of the mark is craziest, 1 trillion marks can be exchanged for 1 dollar, and to buy a loaf of bread requires sacks of banknotes, and even the face value of the banknotes is not as good as the price of the printed paper itself, and under this exchange rate and inflation system, the economy has no other end than collapse, and more than 99% of the disastrous German people will naturally be disappointed with politicians and bankers.

In other words, although Hitler only came to power in 1932, the foundation of his rule was already doomed in the economic catastrophe of 1923, coupled with the collapse in 1929, in less than 10 years, the German people suffered two total collapse-like blows, like a spring, the harder the pressure, the more powerful the outbreak!

It is in any case a brilliant and self-fulfilling irony that the French government insisted on occupying the Ruhr area by force, which was the result of the destruction of the French Third Republic instead of its opponents, and the French policy to suppress Germany!

"That's horrible." Antonio muttered to himself, his face full of incredulity.?