Chapter Eighty-Five: Speculation (Part II)
[Although the author has tried his best to make this chapter simple, it may still be a little obscure, but please read it patiently, because it is very important, xiexie ......]
As a traverser, the charr has always felt lonely.
It's not physical loneliness. In fact, he was born as an orphan, and he was quite fortunate to be able to have his loved ones after crossing over. He loved his grandfather and sister very much, especially his sister.
This loneliness is spiritual.
In an era that was close to 200 years ago, it was still a foreign country, and the language, customs, and humanities were very different from those of the 21st century, making this kind of spiritual loneliness unavoidable. It took him many years to overcome this psychological barrier, and at one point he was even worried by the Marquis of Treville that he was a little autistic. Fortunately, Zuihou still adapted, grew up slowly, and spent his childhood and adolescence.
But this is just an adaptation, and that spiritual loneliness lies in the deepest part of his heart, lingering all the time.
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand the excitement in his heart now, and finally found someone to talk to - whoever he is!
On the other side, Baron de Beauvang was also a little excited, and although he had a vision, his ideas did not receive much approval within the Banque de France, because after all, it seemed too deviant. He was surprised that the young man in front of him was able to understand his idea, see its benefits, and even point out the obstacles to it.
So the two of them chatted with great interest.
"There's no way, now people just recognize this, as if they can't sleep well without holding a few gold coins in their hands." Charles poured himself a cup of tea, and then looked at his reflection in the red tea.
The annual increment of both gold and silver is finite, and in such a situation it is simply impossible to meet the large-scale expenditures that the government needs, and with such expenditures, the gold reserves of the government must flow out in large quantities along with the supply of money. The Americans swept away 96% of the gold reserves of Shijie after the Great War, and only pegged the dollar to gold for 30 years (1944-1973), until Zuihou, when other countries used their own dollars to carry out large-scale runs, President Nixon had to declare the dollar to float freely and decouple from gold.
"Money is metal, and today, when science is prosperous, the remnants of this medieval idea still linger in the Bank of France, hindering the development of France, which is really sighing!" As if thinking of the many troubles he had encountered, the baron couldn't help but sigh. "Money is just a medium of exchange, and the middle carries guarantees and credits, and a bill signed by me can still be passed through the market even if it says 1 million; And what about the others? They write an IOU of 100 francs, and no one will dare to accept it! ”
As he spoke, the baron couldn't help but laugh mockingly.
"So, now that everybody thinks so, France has no choice but to continue to suffer from the economic downturn."
One step ahead is a genius, a few steps ahead is a madman. If the gold standard is abolished now, it will not be possible to do it, but even if it is done, it will inevitably cause panic and depreciate the currency to a penny.
"Even if the abolition of the gold standard is not possible for the time being, the government should carry out the policies you are talking about. Since it is a good thing, and it is good for the country and the people, then Weishenme does not do it? Charles' eyes were firm, "By widening the debt and a certain deficit, the government can raise enough money to do so." ”
The preciousness of this kind of thinking is obvious: during the economic downturn, the government should roll out large-scale construction, such as railways, highways, water conservancy, and so on, to stimulate economic development.
First, it allows businesses to make a viable profit, which is the cornerstone of the country's economic development. Only when the business is in good condition can the government get more tax revenue to go to war, education, national defense, and so on.
Second, it would give the working class the money to sustain themselves and avoid the social unrest caused by mass unemployment. Even if moral considerations are not taken into account, at least the country can maintain a certain degree of stability.
"Makes sense!" The banker couldn't help but smile again.
That's exactly what he thought.
Charles picked up his teacup and took another sip of tea, taking the moment to clear his mind before re-opening.
"To tell you the truth, I think France needs to build a huge railway network to connect every municipality by rail, and that will take more than a decade or more."
"It's going to be a lot of money." The banker's reaction was unexpectedly calm, and perhaps he had also seriously considered the issue.
"Yes, it's frightening." Charles nodded in agreement. "But isn't this a huge project exactly what you had in mind?"
The banker frowned, apparently pondering Charles' words.
"It's really attractive, but it's going to create a huge debt for the government, probably billions of dollars, and the government will have problems paying it in the future." After a few moments, the baron voiced his concerns and concerns, "Although it seems to me that the government can and should stimulate the economy by borrowing large sums of money, there will always be a limit, and excessive debt will cause the government to lose credit. ”
"Large-scale construction will stimulate the development of China's industry and increase government tax revenue; At the same time, China should hinder the import of foreign goods with high tariffs, and then encourage the export of domestic goods, which can also increase government tax revenue. As long as the policies are implemented properly and the scale of construction is carefully planned, the country's financial security can be maintained. Charles replied firmly, because mercantilism was never new, it had been the national policy of France since the time of Louis XIV, and because Germany and Japan in the future, and China in the future, would do so in the future.
Then, his voice lowered a lot, "Besides, the huge debt and financial difficulties can not just provide the government with an excuse and a reason to expand the central bank?" France needs to establish a bank within a bank, with a central bank to manage the entire banking sector, and the Banque de France is able to take on this task. ”
"Excuses and justifications?" The baron's eyes lit up, and then he looked at Charles with some hesitation, "But there will be political turmoil. And the resistance from other banks will not be small, and no one will want to have an extra master on their heads......"
"That was more than a decade later, and the political turmoil was not terrible, it was nothing more than a change of heads of government a few times. As for the resistance of others......" Charles laughed suddenly, "they will finally understand what the general trend cannot stop." ”
Looking at the young man's warm smile, the banker inexplicably rose into a terrifying sigh.
Of course, although it is easy to talk on paper, it may not be possible to do it in practice. Young people always have simple and beautiful ideas, but they don't see the difficulties in implementing them because they don't have real experience. Moreover, he is not at all capable of implementing what he says now.
It's just a little talk, after all.
However, in any case, to have this insight is already better than the vast majority of people, and this young man is at least worth befriending, and perhaps the future is limitless.
Just when he secretly gave this young man a high score in his heart, this young man, who had already impressed him, surprised him again.
"Your idea, in addition to the obstacle of the gold standard, has an even more fatal problem......"
"What?" He subconsciously raised his voice, then instantly came back to his senses and asked again, "What question do you mean?" ”
"In the midst of an economic crisis, if France were to carry out the policies you are talking about, it would undoubtedly benefit a lot and would be able to survive the crisis and usher in a new round of economic prosperity. But......" Charles paused deliberately, then looked up at the baron, "what if every country did it?" ”
"What if every country did that?" The baron muttered to himself.
"If every country does this, it will end up with a very long period of economic stagnation, and the government will have to continue to stimulate the economy until it can no longer sustain it." Charles had his answer.
The gist of Keynesianism is that when the economy is sluggish, the government will vigorously stimulus the economy by reversing it, and use future money (debt) to maintain production and employment in the era of prosperity, and wait for the crisis to end. In times of economic crisis, if one country and two countries implement stimulus policies alone, they can be in a better position when other countries are sluggish and production shrinks due to the crisis.
But what about when every country does it?
In the aftermath of World War II, Keynesianism became prominent, countries raced to implement expansionist economic policies, and governments used huge expenditures to stimulate the economy and maintain high employment rates, thus ushering in a decades of economic prosperity in the post-war period.
However, one day, the prosperity will reach its peak, and no amount of stimulation will have any effect, and the crisis will continue forever.
In the 70s of the 20th century, there was a stagflation phenomenon in the western industrial countries with economic recession, high inflation and high unemployment, and the stagflation that lasted for more than ten years made every western industrial country miserable, and no amount of stimulus policies invested would help.
The same is true in the 21st century.
Everyone can only continue to consume like this, and continue to continue the existing track, zuihou can only see who can't hold on to leave the stage first, and give up their economic territory and market share.
But what about the early and mid-20th century? In that situation where there is no deterrence by weapons that promise each other's destruction?
That's war.
Active, rather than passive, acts of war to eliminate or weaken the adversary's economic position and international market share. Since the 20th century, a country has not gone to war for honor, not for diplomacy, but only for the sake of ensuring its economic status.
However, I am afraid that none of this is what the banker in front of him can think of.
Actually, it's not something that Charles alone can think of.
However, I thought about it.
Because, standing behind me is the history of the future, which is close to two centuries.
"Sir, this is a complicated question, and it is not something that can be explained in one or two sentences," Charles's figure suddenly seemed a little unfathomable, "but I must say that France, or any other country, if it wants to realize its dream of standing proudly in Shijie, must abandon its illusions and arm itself to build an army that can at least guarantee the same fate as the enemy." If a nation wants to stand tall in the forest of shijie strong clans, it must control its own destiny. ”
His words made the banker think so much that he didn't even say anything for a while.
Charles pulled out his pocket watch and looked at it, then nodded his head.
It's rare to be able to have a good conversation with someone, and he is very happy at this moment. But it's not necessary to say too much, that's enough, that's enough.
Looking at the back of Charles leaving, Baron de Beauvang was thoughtful.
"If you're really the grandson of the Duke of Treville, that's great."
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