Chapter 39: The Big Short (26)

Because of the delay of the Italian telegram, Contini did not go downstairs until a little after 9 o'clock to meet the reporters and representatives of the people who had been waiting for a long time, but they were still moved to tears - they were all prepared for the president to show his face at 11 o'clock, but he did not expect to wait until 9 o'clock.

"I know you're here to ask a lot of questions, but the press conference will be tomorrow, and I still have a lot of work to do, so I can only take 30 minutes to answer your most pressing questions...... "The lobby manager said he had collected the questions and put them on a slip of paper?" ”

"Yes, President, in the time we have just waited, we have democratically voted on the ten most pressing issues and ranked them in order of number of votes......"

"Very good, then I'll answer the question."

"The first question that everyone is most concerned about is how to see the stock market tomorrow and the future direction of the stock market." Contini smiled, "Actually, there are two questions here, the first one is for the short term, and the second one is for the medium and long term. In the short term, I think it will be possible to stabilize for the time being because the exchange has launched new measures, and the president and business dignitaries have also made speeches and stabilized the morale of the military. There will be a big problem in the long run - this problem will be very strange, after a period of time there will be polarization, those stocks that have been hyped in the early stage will fall into the abyss, and those companies with a certain strength and foundation will get good support, but there is a sentence I also want to say that if the Federal Reserve does not adjust the relevant monetary policy, it is impossible to make the stock market bullish as a whole. ”

Everyone fell into deep thought, the president's words have been very clear, the short-term look at stability, long-term down, but in the future, the rise is not together, the fall is not together, it is not an exaggeration to call it a structural bull market......

"The second question is, what do you think of the new initiative?"

"The actual effectiveness of these measures needs to be tested by the market, but one thing is certain, the administration cannot replace the market itself, no one can manipulate the stock market, and the government is no exception, I think the stock market is a barometer of the economy, sometimes the stock market runs faster than the economy, sometimes it runs slower than the economy, but in any case, the stock market cannot exist without the economy, do you think there are any hidden worries behind the prosperity of the American economy for so many years? I think there is......"

"The third question is a children's rhyme that has been popular in New York recently: Mellon blows the whistle and Hoover rings the bell. Wall Street signals that America is rushing to hell! What do you think? Seeing this question, Contini laughed, "The person who wrote this children's rhyme obviously has great doubts about the government and the future market, in fact, the stock market and the economy have very complex causes, which can not be solved simply by the decision of one or two national leaders." I'll give you a very simple example, the American middle class has lost a lot in this stock market crash, even if it does not go bankrupt or go bankrupt, in the next few years, they will cut back on food and clothing, reduce the demand for luxury goods and fashion products, and cut off the consumption of all dispensable goods - this will bring about the export of the Italian and French fashion industries and a large loss of output value, which will indirectly affect their enterprises and industries; In the same way, the middle class that originally planned to buy a new house and change to a new car will also postpone consumption, which will lead to a series of industrial changes, and the US economy will enter a new pattern. Sorry, I can't understand it right now......"

"Fourth, what is your solution to America's economic woes?" Contini shook his head, "I think there are two problems in the United States, first, the United States is a free market economy, but now the relevant institutions and policies are increasing their interference, which destroys the internal logic, and this interference can not be implemented consistently. Second, there must be problems that must be solved in their entirety unless the system is changed – but this is not possible.

The simplest problem is the unemployment rate, and all U.S. presidents pay special attention to the unemployment rate because they are democratically elected, but I would say that the price of labor in the United States is the most expensive in the world, and if you want to achieve full employment, you will either have to lower the standard of ordinary wages, or companies will suffer large losses, both of which are unacceptable to others. In the final analysis, in such a society where the global economy is closely related, all factors of production are flowing freely, and the cost of materials to produce a towel is about the same, but the labor cost is much different, and the price is also high and low. If you want to protect American jobs, you have to use high tariffs - well, if the United States uses high tariffs, Europe won't use them? That's the trade war.

If we want to solve the problem of unemployment, we need to allow labor to move freely, and the employment difficulties in the United States will be transferred to other countries – but is this possible? Every country is trying to protect its job market, and the United States is not only not immigrating, but also absorbing immigrants, on the one hand, a large population, and on the other hand, a shortage of jobs - the unemployment rate is a natural existence of balancing these two contradictions, how can it be solved? ”

On this issue, Contini is obviously lying, and he sees very clearly that the problem of the United States in the final analysis is the contradiction between the limited ability of the people to pay and the expanding production capacity, but it is not easy to solve this problem, and to improve the ability of working people to pay, it is necessary to reduce the income of oligarchs, tycoons and governments. The answer is self-explanatory; As for the initiative to reduce production capacity? Who wants to do this kind of thing, watching others get rich and they can't do anything next to them, then they must rush in and do it together, and repeat the construction will repeat the construction; It is true that there is no redundancy in the planned economy, but the planned economy has brought more problems, shortages -- only shortages are the best criterion to prove that there is no duplication of construction.

He answered all 10 questions in one go, and responded to rumors that Union Bank was preparing to repay Fed loans early, but he said it tactfully: customers said they would do it early, and if they did, Union Bank would definitely do it early, and it was our duty to ensure the stability of the U.S. financial system......

At 10:45, he returned to the rest place exhausted and saw a call back from Italy: seeing Mussolini actually pull the Caracciolo over, he suddenly felt that the leader was still very clear in his mind sometimes, knowing what he wanted in the United States, the 305mm tube of the Doria was still not thick enough, and the 381mm drug cannon above the Caracciolo class was king.

Tuesday's stock market in the postponement of the opening and a lot of good stimuli, finally began to stagger, although the opening is a sell-off - this is a part of the frightened birds in the initiative to reduce positions, but the stability fund and the United Trust reached a tacit understanding, stabilized the stock price of the big blue chips, as for how much the small ticket fell, they don't care at all, so Tuesday's stock market is extremely ornamental, the overall points barely climbed from 392 points to 398 points, and once stood above 300 points, but after careful observation, you will find, Only more than 60 large blue chips really supported the market, and all the other small tickets fell miserably - most of them continued to play 6-7 discounts on the basis of yesterday, and the brokerages also took advantage of the fire to rob, in the case of 2.5 times the leverage, and added the brokerage margin, the actual leverage ratio was only 2 times, which made many investors who held stocks have to cut meat at a low level, so that Wall Street was full of money.

On this day, Livermore's work was relatively easy, on the one hand, he went to pick up those small tickets that fell into slag for closing positions, and on the other hand, he quietly reduced his holdings of some big blue chips with the price up, ready to find a more suitable opportunity to short, and the whole day was repeatedly oscillating in the process of high throwing and low sucking, constantly cleaning the remaining taste of yesterday; On Wednesday and Thursday, there was such a release, and on Friday even the stock index stubbornly stood at 300 points and hit the position of 311 points.

On the same day, a reporter asked Contini: Does the sentence 300 points be the starting point of a new round of bull market in the United States still take effect?

Contini laughed and shook his head: "I think this bull market is basically over, all that remains is to sort out and wait for the economic data and social conditions to improve...... And you can't just look at the US stock market, the European stock market has also fallen sharply, and I think it's too early to talk about a new bull market until the two sides agree to solidify. But if you talk about the future? I don't think 300 points, 1000 points is no problem! You and I will definitely see this scene in our lifetime. ”

This is really not his bragging, he has really seen the morale of the Dow Jones index like a rainbow, let alone 1,000 points, 10,000 points are broken, so he naturally dares to say so. And such a reporter's release was also quite bold, and he was ashamed to write: "The president said, what is 300 points, I will take you to see 1000 points in the future!" ”

These words made many high-level executives and professionals feel inexplicable, but they also made investors pluck up great courage, and they passed it on one after another: the president looks at 1000 points, don't be afraid, this is just a technical adjustment.

The rumours spread so widely that Contini had to reiterate at a press conference on Friday: "I do look at 1,000 points, but I don't say that in the last few years, it will take at least 25 years." I'm still young, and I'm sure I'll live at least 40 years – so in my lifetime!

After this explanation, the audience was stunned at first, and then burst into laughter, as if the plunge no longer existed. Mediterranean hegemon