Chapter 19: The Big Short (6)
PS: The 800th monthly pass is added
On September 9, the Federal Reserve Bureau, which had basically made a judgment, reported to the authorities, and the content was full of words, in other words: in addition to the $800 million gold payment, the U.S. branch of Union Bank also transferred nearly $4 billion of positions abroad. If Union Bank declares bankruptcy on the spot at this time, the United States will have at least $4 billion in funds that cannot be recovered, and theoretically the Fed will have the right to sue for the loans issued by Union Bank in the future, but these companies are scattered in Europe, and it will be difficult to collect debts at home.
$4 billion is not a small amount, and the cumulative loans issued by the United States to Germany's Dawes plan a few years ago are only at the level of 2.7 or 800 million, which is enough to completely sort out the financial system of a European industrial power. Treasury Secretary Mellon slapped the case in his office and said angrily: "Nonsense, this is nonsense, let them return the money!" ”
"The other party said that the loan had been disbursed and could not be recovered, and there was no default anyway, who stipulated that the loan could not be issued."
"I don't believe that these loans have been issued to other companies in Europe, and they must have been using tricks to finance themselves and avoid regulation." Mellon said, "Connect the phone, I'll talk to President Ziano." ”
"He attended the New York Investor Summit today, and he was not there to be in charge, but he was in charge of the president of the Union Bank, Francisco ......"
"It's useless to look for him, he's just a professional manager, the real backstage boss is little Ziano, you immediately greet him, just say I'm going to visit him tomorrow, and then I'll report to the president now."
"Do you want to disclose it or condemn it publicly?"
Mellon shook his head: "No, you can't do this, to be honest, he hasn't violated the rules of the game now, he has made the most of the rules, so we can't poke this matter out yet, we still have to persuade him to get the funds back, he wants money to buy industrial equipment, he can't use this kind of desperate method, this is not a gentleman's doing." ”
Of course, Mellon knew that it would not work to poke it out, it would detonate the entire banking crisis, so he could only ask the Federal Reserve to give Francisco a death order, in any case, the 800 million gold and the current loans must be recovered as soon as possible, and at the same time, the United Group must provide guarantees, of course, the term can be longer, as long as it is promised, the Ministry of Finance will not be too tight - the president still has this face.
Mellon immediately went to report to Hoover, in fact, there has always been a difference of concept between him and Hoover: Mellon, as a typical corporate leader, believes that more space should be given to capital, while Hoover, from the perspective of a national leader, believes that state regulation should be carried out.
But Mellon's request for freedom is also to give freedom to the American consortium, and he does not intend to give the same freedom to the Italian consortium, so when he reported to Hoover, he gave Contini a hard dose of eye medicine.
Hoover was also taken aback when he heard this, after all, he had seen a lot of winds and waves, and after a moment of silence, he calmed down, and said suspiciously: "This matter is not strictly a violation of the law, so it cannot be sanctioned for the time being, and the point I want to figure out most is why he did this?" What's in it for him? He needs financing to be able to ...... openly."
"He has recently expressed his opinion that the Fed's interest rates are too high to stifle the development of industry and commerce, and at the same time he thinks that the stock market will usher in a profound correction." Mellon also calmed down, "He's afraid he won't be able to get so much money by then...... He wanted to start first, signed a total of 4.2 billion industrial orders, only paid a deposit of 500 million, and was still 3.7 billion! Even if it is paid in 3 years, it will be 1.2 billion per year! ”
"I'll call him, this matter needs to be resolved properly and decily, as little as possible to make a storm in the city, and the Fed's verification team can come back...... It's good to find out the big problems, and don't care about the details. ”
"The Fed said that it has not caught strong evidence of violations, and they ......"
"Idiot! The president scolded them, some people were stupid, and he really didn't wronged them at all! Hoover banged on the table and said impatiently, "What evidence are they looking for?" What about finding out? Do you want to lock up Ziano or kill it? What if there is evidence? The important thing is to get the money back, there is no evidence, everyone advises it, the president also wants to save face, this matter will be calmed down, what do you mean by making a fish to die in the net? Do you force people to take all the 4 billion away? It's the money, not the people......"
"They said Ziano was still in New York and could ...... Can ......"
"He's a diplomatic envoy with diplomatic immunity, and what head is going to go out and arrest him? Even if you catch him, will you be able to catch him? By the police? No kidding, those police in New York can't even control the gangsters, and they can still fight against the president's guards? They are carrying the French Foreign Legion in Algeria! By the army? How can the military be used without congressional authorization? Are you going to war with Italy? Don't be the president in the end, the two of us were dealt with for abuse of power! Hoover scolded with hatred, "The bankers of the Federal Reserve usually look above the top, think they are proficient in economics and finance, and they are politically ...... politically."
He repeated it twice, couldn't find the right words to describe it, and finally held back for a long time and finally squeezed out one word: "Naive!" ”
Although Mellon and Hoover have a bit of a difference of concept, they still agree with each other on this matter: President Ziano should focus on coaxing, everyone should discuss carefully, and must not turn the other cheek, and there will be a series of troubles waiting for the government - political, economic, financial, and diplomatic are all a series of problems. He hates the Federal Reserve again now, what is he doing to check other people's accounts, and now that he has a problem, he can't poke it, and it's not okay not to poke it, so it's better to pretend to be deaf and dumb at that time? That might be a little less of a hassle.
It's been a lot of work here, and Contini is still attending an investment summit over there, and before Contini speaks, it's the economist Fisher-Price — he came up with the Fisher equation, and he advocates continuing to be bullish on the stock market, even though the stock market index is already a little higher. The speech was similar to the statement of the previous 7-8 predators, so the response was average, and everyone just applauded politely.
Contini's last speech, the organizer's intention is very clear, to take out the president for the finale, because the president has always had strong remarks, everyone is waiting to hear his new ideas, especially not long ago more than 170 investors jointly issued a statement saying that Contini was wrong, plus the Dow Jones broke through the momentum of 450 points, so that everyone wanted to hear his defense.
Among the people sitting in the audience was Livermore, looking at the big people around him, he couldn't help but sigh: the president not only sang short, but also had a short position of more than 2 billion in his hand. But did he dare to reveal these words? Dare to shake it out and keep it tomorrow, and it will be hit by a Chicago typewriter.
Contini glanced around, laughed at first, and then uttered the chilling words:
"Thank you very much for your bullish remarks on the stock market, I am honored to be your opponent, I have cleared all my stock positions......"
The whistle sounded, the shouts were loud, but the more powerful words were yet to come.
"Not only that, but I have gradually built up a short position that matches my personal status and wealth!" "I'm a very sincere person, I talk about it, I sell it in my hands, and I have a clear attitude – that's why the press likes me very much, I don't say anything ambiguous, I can interpret it in hindsight." I put my judgment here......"
Everyone held their breath and listened to the president's judgment.
"A big crisis and a big fall are already waiting for us, they are not far away, maybe next month, maybe Christmas ......Eve," Contini said unhurriedly, "Since the beginning of this year, the agricultural index has remained low and consolidated, and workers' wages have not increased as much as last year, and President Hoover's efforts to develop the economy have been strongly blocked by the Federal Reserve - high interest rates have stifled the vitality of the economy. This cannot be a wise judgment. As far as I am aware, the industrial and agricultural index has peaked in June this year, and now the main commodities are unsalable, and the European market is also experiencing sluggish growth, with only a few varieties selling well. I would like to ask you, apart from the United Motorcycle and the Hundred Waves, can you find a third item that is in short supply? ”
Everyone in the audience squinted their eyes and thought about it, as if there was really none.
"Yes! The third thing that is in short supply is called stocks! There are 47 brokers, more than 200 trusts, and more than 1,000 over-the-counter underground black markets in New York, and even the tavern owner is betting on the over-the-counter market, and the only margin is his courage! Countless people were swept up in it, and I went to Boston to visit, and the driver of the car was asking if U.S. Steel had risen by $5? I went to dine and the waiters hid to the side to discuss which stock was better. I went to walk the streets, and the shoe-shine vendor grabbed me, sir, do you want to recommend some stocks to you, United Pharma is very good - this company invented Bailang Duo interest, do you want me to introduce you to someone, he can buy common shares there - but there is an extra $5 per share processing fee, don't be too expensive, buy it and make money! Sooner or later, the stock will break through $1,000 a share. ”
The audience burst into laughter and pitched United Pharma stock to the president? Who doesn't know that the president is the largest behind-the-scenes shareholder of United Pharma.
"The market is so frenetic that I, the person who comes into contact with stocks every day, tremble...... What are the remaining industries of the United Group: United Power, United Real Estate, United Shipping, and United Airlines, will they also be listed after packaging? Is it also possible to supply United Film, United Packaging, Joint Publishing, United Newspaper, United Refining & Chemical, United Railway, United Electric Power, and United Energy? Oh, forget, I also have United Education, United Telecommunications, United Construction, United Steel, United Shipyard, United Machinery, United Metallurgy, ......" Contini waved his hand, "If you want, I can take the whole of Italian heavy industry to the market, which is a large asset package of more than $30 billion, and at the current standard of 3 times the price-to-book ratio of the stock market, you can issue $90 billion in shares, you or?" ”