When Comrade Bukharin had not yet calculated how much foreign exchange the Soviets would lose in the event of a large increase in the supply of crude oil, the over-the-counter spot market in New York had already set off a great wave.

In fact, the information obtained by the Cheka is lagging behind, as early as 5 days ago, the exploration team had already identified the discovery of the oil field and reported it to the US side and the United Group, 2 days ago, the news formed a consensus in the circle, and then the press conference. In this short period of time, the liquidity of the OTC spot market has increased wildly, and a large number of positions have been traded with each other, but it is clear that the bears have the upper hand.

Now there is no standard crude oil futures market in the world, but with the gradual popularity of securities trading, the over-the-counter spot market is also developing rapidly, this over-the-counter market is large and small, the big may be several consortiums through fund management companies and investment banks jointly established, the small may be some capital management companies, the smaller may be a bar owner, in order to provide fun for the dull bar during the day, these bosses usually launch a variety of ingenious trading objects. It is said that it is a flexible transaction, in fact, it is almost no different from gambling: for example, betting that the stock price of General Motors will fall in that range at 10 o'clock, and then setting different odds for different ranges, you can go to the counter to bet if you fancy it, usually after 10 o'clock 5-8 minutes will have an exact quotation coming, conscientious, more cautious bosses through carefully arranged odds for pumping, conscience black, bold bosses dare to bet directly with gamblers - anyway, there is no business, if you win, you just eat, and if you lose, you can't run away.

Contini asked the United Group to bet on the large over-the-counter market, in fact, his opponents are not small oil spot players in the circle, and it is difficult for them to understand the reason for the large-scale bet on the bears - now the United States, Europe is recovering and showing a thriving scene, more and more cars, ships are being produced, these all consume oil, not to mention the navy, even ordinary civilian cargo ships have begun to fuel oil, with the extensive and in-depth scientific research, more scientists are aware of the importance of petrochemicalsThis is all a reason for future price increases, so why are there still people betting on a forward market decline? Judging from the technical chart, crude oil is also in a bullish trend, and moving against the trend is clearly a stunned behavior.

The discovery of large oil fields in Algeria by the United Group gave this blind optimism a resounding slap in the face, and with the intervention and suppression of local predators such as Standard Oil, the price of the forward spot market fell rapidly, and the price of crude oil scheduled for delivery in June 1926 fell rapidly from $1.39 to $1.14, a drop of nearly 20% in a week, and the over-the-counter spot market set a relatively low margin in order to attract more people's attention, but 5% - in other words, a 5% decline is enough to blow up. Regardless of whether they have raised the margin in the middle or not, there is only one result - liquidation!

Of course, there are also some speculative bulls who refuse to admit defeat, thinking that even if it is a big oil field discovery, what will it be? Will it be able to produce oil on a large scale in June next year? This is clearly an irrational suppression of market panic, as long as they survive this panic period, they still have the expectation of recovering their costs or even turning over. Up to now, the number of short orders held by the United Group has exceeded 40,000 (1,000 barrels each), and based on the standard of an average profit of $200 per ticket, it has a floating profit of $8 million.

These arrangements were gradually accumulated after Contini ordered the oil field exploration team to divert to Algeria, which was much earlier and more calmly than the New York Petroleum Company and other companies that arranged shorts after receiving accurate information, and the purpose of Contini's negotiations with the Soviets today was to lock in the victory with a decisive word!

The negotiations went very well, and after only two hours of negotiations in the morning, the Italian and Soviet sides signed a barter trade package: Italy exported and directed a complete set of Caracciolo-class technology priced at $3 million; the purchase of vehicles, motorcycles and aircraft worth more than $2 million from the United Group, the Fiat Group, etc., and authorized their production in the Soviet Union; the purchase of machine tools and complete sets of industrial equipment worth more than $15 million from the United Group; The total amount is more than 20 million US dollars.

For its part, the Union Group pledged to buy 12 million barrels of Baku crude oil ($1.02 fob) from the Soviets, 3 million tons of crude steel or rails produced according to Italian requirements, as well as other deals such as aluminum ingots and wheat.

On the whole, Italy's industrial products and equipment are priced according to the international level, and the industrial and agricultural products of the Soviet Union are 15-20% lower than those in the international market, but because the round-trip freight is actually the responsibility of the United Group, in fact, the difference profit is only about 10%.

When the package of economic cooperation between Italy and the Soviet Union was made public (concealing the transfer of military technology from Italy to the Soviet Union, which looked like a joint bloc's purchase of raw materials from the Soviet Union), the New York oil bulls finally knew that the tide was over.

Obviously, the 12 million barrels of oil imported from the Soviet Union will soon be released to Europe, which will immediately squeeze the market for American crude oil, and together with the output of Algerian and Libyan crude oil, they have finally realized the terrible reality that there may be a surplus of oil in the coming year. One of the characteristics of crude oil prices is that the price is not determined according to mainstream users, but according to the shortage or surplus of production, although the market is expanding, but it is not comparable to the sharp increase in supply, so there will be a surplus of US crude oil next year - which determines the avalanche of the over-the-counter market.

So a few days later, the over-the-counter market began to have a bullish stampede, and everyone ran away, quickly forming a situation of killing more and more, and the price even fell below $1 per barrel at the lowest price, and the industrial predators such as United Group and Standard Oil made a lot of money and smiled from ear to ear - of course, this is a later story, not to mention it for the time being.

With this agreement as the foundation, Stalin held a grand welcome banquet for Contini and Ida in the evening, in addition to him, several members of the Politburo were present, including Bukharin, Kamenev, Zinoviev and others, in the toast, Stalin not only sang praises for the friendship between Italy and the Soviet Union, but even touted the 22-year-old Contini as an outstanding young thinker, politician, and entrepreneur, and expressed his "deep approval, deep inspiration, and deep honor" for his behavior of calling himself "comrade" on the dock! And deliberately led the conversation to hear his views on the theoretical viewpoint of "building socialism in one country".

As soon as this sentence came out, Bukharin and others all looked at Contini intently, wanting to hear what he had to say, Contini knew that this theory was the focus of internal controversy among the Bolsheviks, and at the same time knew the achievements of Comrade Iron in history.

"As a matter of fact, the worries and hostility of various countries towards the Soviet power first of all depend on whether the Soviets export the revolution, and if your country can abandon the idea of exporting revolution and concentrate on domestic construction, I believe that the international community's misunderstanding and hostility towards your country will be rapidly reduced. Secondly, I myself have always held the view that different doctrines are applicable to different countries and different historical stages, and there is no one-size-fits-all policy, for example, your country believes that only the Bolsheviks can save the Soviets, for example, our country believes that only the Fascists can save Italy, and for example, the Americans believe that liberalism can be adapted to the national conditions of the United States - to a certain extent, they may all be true, all right; Third, to prove whether a theory is correct or not, it is not necessary to rely on finding chapters and sentences from the classic works of our predecessors, but to make a comprehensive judgment based on the national situation and the international strategic situation...... If a revolutionary theory is not proven and cannot be exported to the outside world, how can it resonate and endorse other countries? ”

After a pause, Contini added: "Actually, I studied Marxism in school, and I have compared the similarities and differences between Leninism and Marxism, Mr. Lenin believes that revolution can occur in a weak country like Russia, while Mr. Marx believes that the socialist revolution will first take place in a highly developed capitalist country. Can it be said that this adjustment is a departure from Marxism? Apparently not! In the same way, Comrade Stalin's viewpoint on building socialism in one country has been sublimated and developed on the basis of Leninism, and is a useful exploration of Leninism in the new period in terms of state building, social development, economy and people's livelihood, and so on. How did they know that the world would change so drastically? In succession, there were differences between the various schools of thought, and Monsieur Gramsci in Italy (the leader of the Italian Communist Party) clearly held a different view from the Russian Bolsheviks, so it was best to seek common ground while reserving differences. ”

After listening to the translation, Stalin was the first to applaud, and then the others applauded, and he looked at the other comrades around him, as if to say: You see, even the Italians know that I am the successor of Leninism, and this is a useful exploration in the new period, which shows that there is a sufficient and solid theoretical basis for "building socialism in one country." It's just that his applause was enthusiastic and loud, and the applause of several other opposition parties was somewhat reluctant.

Contini smiled and added meaningfully: "In fact, it is very easy to test whether the theory is correct or not, the leader has been in power for nearly three years, Italy has undergone earth-shaking changes, the Italian people know the importance of the three flags, your country has implemented the new economic policy in the past few years, whether the domestic situation has deteriorated or improved compared with previous years, I believe you all know in your hearts." ”