Chapter 86: Someone Is Going to Attack the Lira (1)
When Contini first instinctively thought that it was a hoax because the United Oil was not currently listed, the United Group still held 42 percent of the shares, and although this shareholding ratio was not enough to unilaterally decide on anything, the oil company was basically still in the hands of the United Group, and the funds for all kinds of share capital increases also flowed into the hands of the United Group in one way or another.
It is necessary to pay attention to strategy in getting funds from oil companies into their own hands, and simply making money from oil companies will turn into major shareholders embezzling the company's interests, so United Petroleum has designed a complex set of operation methods.
The first is the salary of personnel, the standards are set according to the standards of Anglo-American companies, but there is nothing special, the problem is that these personnel usually also hold other positions, which is equivalent to the salary of United Oil for other projects;
The second is the interest, the highest interest rate standard borrowings in the early stage are all in the Algerian company, although the later period is reduced a lot, but it is still necessary to transfer benefits to the Union Bank;
The third is the operating expenses, which are of course amortized directly for the equipment used in the oil fields, but the expenses incurred in the procurement process, including the purchase of other power generation equipment and refining equipment, are also recorded in the Algerian oil company;
The last big part is the construction cost, whether it is the oil pipeline or the cost of crude oil from the port of Tripoli, and even the use of roads, telecommunications and electricity, a relatively high amount has been set, and even the dredging cost of the port of Tripoli has been amortized, the reason is very simple, the first oil pipeline laid in the desert, the expansion of the port of Tripoli, etc., are all supporting services for the oil fields, who will pay if it does not pay? The problem was that these costs could be used in other ways at a later date, and the Union Group did not mention it.
On the more extreme side, the cost of oil guards, the cost of laying mines, including the use of tanks, is charged to Algerian Oil – which is understandable, but a bit overpriced.
In the final analysis, it can be summed up in two sentences: the United Group used the method of low entry and high output to withdraw funds from Algerian oil and enter other subsidiaries; The Algerian oil company's liquidity has been rapidly drained by adopting a part-of-the-group approach.
Finally, there is the subtle erosion: the crude oil production reported by Contini to France and the crude oil production registered in the company's accounts is only 86-88% of the actual production, and the extra eighth is directly the net profit of the United Group. So the British felt uncomfortable with this, and the French also felt uncomfortable and tried to get it by all means.
Of course, none of this creates any moral guilt in Contini's mind: I was supposed to take you to play, and if it weren't for me, who would have known there was a big oil field here? I haven't released the reserves yet! Moreover, since I have paid a huge political and military price at home to resist the pressure of the French on the oil fields, shouldn't this invisible guarantee and competition be allocated to me an extra piece?
The U.S. side has this consideration, but they have more ideas: they don't want to control the oil field like Britain or France, and Wall Street has no interest in the oil field itself, they look at the capitalization behind the oil field. In other words, as long as the oilfield shares can maintain their independence and IPO under the strong push of the president, and then achieve a strong rise, they don't mind the Italians sneaking some away with small actions.
Are Americans all fools?
Of course not, they see very clearly that whoever is in the hands of the oil fields can get a little more benefit like Italy, which is the natural impulse of the major shareholders who control the company - the British and the French will not necessarily be better than Contini in power, but then again, if Britain and France are in power, then American capital will have no right to speak at all, and the Italians control the oil fields, and in order to compete with Britain and France, they may have to rely on the power of Wall Street, not to mention that the president himself has a large number of loans on Wall Street!
Turning around to discuss the news with Francisco, he first nodded, and then shook his head: "President, what you see may not be everything, we have other hidden dangers." ”
"What do you mean?"
"I have just received a telegram from China that the leader is dissatisfied with the current value of about 100 lira to 1 pound sterling, and hopes to promote the realization of 90 lira to 1 pound, and by the way, to increase the exchange rate against the United States."
"He's going to push for the appreciation of the local currency?"
"Yes, it's a hassle."
At present, the exchange rate between the US dollar and the British pound is about 5:1, so the lira roughly maintains the pattern of 20 lira to 1 US dollar and 100 lira to 1 pound, but if we extrapolate according to this idea, in the future, it will be 18 lira to 1 US dollar and 90 lira to 1 pound, and the local currency will directly appreciate by 10%.
"Who's giving this advice?" Contini's face immediately darkened, "Doesn't the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Count Volpi, understand?" Such an appreciation would be a serious blow to the export competitiveness of Italian goods. ”
Volpi was Fascisty's second Chancellor of the Exchequer, and he succeeded in settling Anglo-American demands for war reparations from Italy, at the cost of trying to keep tariffs and currency stable, and importing as many supplies as possible from Britain and the United States. He has performed well since taking office, and Contini has continued to import complete sets of equipment from the United States, and the import volume of the United States has continued to rise, so he is satisfied with all aspects. All of a sudden, it's a bit of a surprise to push the local currency up.
Francisco smiled bitterly: "The telegram was sent by the Count, and he said that the idea was completely decided by the leader himself, and no one could stop him." ”
"Did he say why the leader did this?"
"Having said that, the leader gave two reasons: first, in recent years, the income has continued to rise, and the appreciation of the local currency is conducive to reducing trade losses; Second, the fascist rule has been in power for 5 years, the lira is still at the same level as before, and the average wage of Italian workers has not risen much, which is at the middle and lower level in Europe in horizontal comparison, which does not match the image of Italy as a great country. ”
He knew that the first reason was not Mussolini's true thoughts, and his understanding of economics may not be clear about the triangular relationship between cash flow, capital operation and foreign trade balance, but what he really cared about was the second - how to maintain the face of a big country.
"It's not an economic or financial issue, it's a political issue." "You call back to the Count and ask him to find a way to stop the leader's impulses," Contini thought for a moment. ”