Chapter 14: The Big Short (1)

After 7 years, Contini hollowed out and used various means, tried his best to take advantage of the traverser, in the stock market, oil, medicine and other fields of comprehensive layout, the use of borrowing a large amount of money from the United States to develop the real money is actually only in addition to most of the basic mining (except for oil, Italy can not spare other resources) involved in the whole industrial chain of heavy industry joint group, at present, most of the United States debts have been paid off, there is still a difference in Italy's domestic debt, the overall debt ratio of 25%, In terms of proportion, the risk is relatively low and controllable, but the overall volume is not small - the total assets of the United Group are as high as 3.9 billion US dollars!

But even with such a large group, except for a small number of industries that make money, the whole is still losing money. It is also because everyone knows that the profitability of the United Group is generally not optimistic, so no one is jealous and envious of Contini's comprehensive reinforcement of many industries in Italy - let the president do what he likes to do if he loses money.

So some people can quietly make 5 billion US dollars by just a stocking, which is really unbelievable - if you really want to make such a profit, other consortia have already come up to rob it, and the closest to the effect of the many products of the United Group is Bailang Duo interest, but even if such a product is in short supply and has a profit margin of more than 400%, the total profit of a year is more than 10 million US dollars, without him, the market size and output are just here. Even so, there are plenty of companies gearing up to crack the imitations. Everyone knows that the remaining patent life of the United Group is only 5 years, and in the 5 years, each company has successfully developed and imitated it, and then produced a batch, and then dumped it after 5 years, which is the wishful thinking of many companies.

The possible losses of the United Group alone have attracted huge expenses, not to mention that Contini also sponsors army tanks and planes at every turn, sponsors the navy's capital ships and cruisers and builds his own aircraft carriers, and the money is spent like water, so he must make a lot of money to maintain it, and then fill in the big hole in the future, and truly achieve the goal of rebuilding an Italian industrial system in 10 years. And after the big crisis, there are not many good opportunities to make money, so even if there is a certain risk in shorting, Contini still decided to rise to the challenge and make another amount of money by shorting in the opposite direction - there will be no such store in this village.

Long is different from short, long only need to buy it in advance and then hold still, and then use the frenzy to slowly reduce its holdings at the right time, Contini's stocks that have risen dozens or even hundreds of times are like this, he used a total of 2914 stock accounts before and after to slowly withdraw this huge amount, a total of up to $3 billion stocks, and thanks to a group of professional managers and Francisco from it in tandem - many stocks are issued from Europe to the United States to reduce their holdings, It would be too strange if all the 3 billion were concentrated in the name of the United Group or Contini, but fortunately, the trading volume of the stock market during this period was as high as 700-9 million shares, making such a large-scale reduction transaction very smooth.

But shorting is different, the shorting entry threshold and trading channel requirements are higher than long, the target object also has a limit, not every stock can be lent, different lending stock interest rates and margins are not the same, need to be accurately calculated, which can not be achieved by remote operation. What's more, Contini wants to short the stock is not a few million, tens of millions, that is, to use hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars as a quota for concentrated selling, of course, if you do well, you will make a lot of profits, and if you don't do well, you must smash it all in your own hands, so you must invite professionals to come out, and Livermore is precisely a figure proven by history - in the 1929 Great Crisis, he made $100 million through shorting, and finally forced the US government to give him an order not to allow shorting.

The $10 million that Contini wanted Livermore to pay for his own operation was for this method, and as for the pressure that the Federal Reserve, the U.S. government, and even other American consortia might exert at that time, he would have to help Livermore carry it, and before he could carry it, he should first build momentum.

From mid-May to early June, Contini instructed his subordinates to continue to reduce their holdings of shares, while expressing his views externally, certainly not radically, but there was a clear difference in attitude. The most typical is that on June 9, at a forum of business people in the central and western regions, he said in an interview:

"The stock market is a reflection of economic fundamentals, the U.S. stock market from less than 100 points to today's Dow Jones word count exceeded 360 points, fully reflecting the past eight years of U.S. industrial and economic prosperity, if the U.S. stock market is to continue to rise, then these economic boom and industrial growth must continue. Please note that it is not the stock market boom that brings economic prosperity, it is the economic boom that is reflected in the stock market boom, but the current market interest rate environment has made the real economy, especially the asset-heavy real economy, encounter a lot of difficulties......

Only industrialists, industrialists and businessmen can create wealth for the country, and stock market investors and even speculators do not create wealth, they only use part of their capital advantages to achieve sharing and win-win results on the basis of industrial development, and realize the redistribution of wealth. The real strength and wealth of the United States is not the rising index in the stock market, not those illusory numbers - these things can be printed as much as they want, the real wealth is the milk and bread that the American people enjoy every day, the cars and subways that travel every day, the steel that converts tons into parts, and the tall buildings that rise from the ground......

…… The real economy is the foundation of America's prosperity and strength, I have noticed that President Hoover has repeatedly emphasized the need to create a more prosperous four years, I believe that he will not turn a blind eye to these problems, he has been in office for three months, in response to the past unreasonable management system and related policies, we call for the credit and interest rate policies to be adjusted as soon as possible - before the economic boom, the stock market boom caused damage! Failure to do so can lead to immeasurable errors. ”

The New York Times seized the content and reported it as "This is a red flag", which resonated widely in the business community, thinking that when it comes to their hearts, but for ordinary investors, they will not look at this kind of economic strategy and tirade, they only focus on the president's judgment of whether the stock market will rise or not, so Contini's words are interpreted according to their own needs, and most people judge that the president thinks that the stock market can still rise, provided that the Federal Reserve stops doing stupid things.

Livermore, who carefully studied and judged the report, read a new idea, the president's current position has changed from being extremely bullish to cautiously bullish - to not being able to do it in one step, that is too scary, it will make the president twist his waist, Livermore has a plan, seize the opportunity to sell his stocks, and clear the customers one by one, and now he has to concentrate on serving the big customers of the United Group, and has no energy to take care of the small and medium-sized customers with assets of tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars.

In May and June, the U.S. stock market continued to be predominantly volatile, with the index repeatedly circling neither up nor down, which was an acceptable stalemate for all. Contini's words were quickly drowned out in other chaotic voices, and did not cause more impact and impact, only the people in the US State Department wondered why the president was still in the United States, and didn't he come to participate in the celebration in the first place? President Hoover attaches great importance to the president, and has held many talks, discussing politics, economics, and diplomacy, and expressed his appreciation for Contini for always standing up for him and agreeing with the ideas of "four years of greater prosperity" and "economic development."

Of course, Contini also has a reason to stay, he should have left in mid-April, but the reason why he didn't leave in April was an unexpected situation, which needed to smooth the stock market fluctuations and the five major banks to join forces to support the market;

The reason for not leaving in May was to complete the work of staying in April to inspect the U.S. equipment industry and the western development plan;

The reason for not leaving in June was the new itinerary, inspecting the American education system and scientific research system, and signing the "Italian Study Abroad Act" and the "US-Italy Academic Exchange Friendship Fund Agreement" with Secretary of State Stimson - this is the gift that Contini agreed to give Capello as Minister of Education.

According to the law, starting from September 1929, Italy selects 1,000 science and engineering students to study in the United States every year for a period of 2 years, forming a unique 2+2 structure, which is generally maintained for 4 years, that is, until the end of President Hoover's first term, the tuition and living expenses of this group of students are sponsored by the United Group, if President Hoover is successfully re-elected, it will continue for 4 years, if he is not re-elected, negotiations will be held to see the specific situation.

Hoover was very happy about this, thinking that this was Contini's vote of confidence in him, you see that I don't need to talk about it if I am re-elected, if I can't be re-elected president, I have to think about it again, isn't this an iron buddy?

The academic exchange fund is funded by the United Group with 10 million US dollars, inviting professors from American colleges and universities to give lectures and serve as visiting professors in Italy, and their salaries and expenses during their stay in Italy are all paid by the United Group according to the standard of the professor in the United States at twice the rate, and it plans to invite 300 experts every year, and will also send Italian scholars to the United States for study and exchange, and the expenses are also borne by the fund.

In fact, these contracts are not a matter for the Italian government and the U.S. government, but between the United Bloc and the U.S. higher education system, but because of the large scale, the wide range of involvement, and the flow of people, etc., it is necessary to pull the government to come forward as a witness.