"Who does he think he is? Why point fingers at us! Benjamin Strong, a Fed official and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, lashed out at a New York Times reporter from his luxurious office.

Although he did not name him, he knew at a glance that it was Contini.

The reporter couldn't help laughing: "He is the president, the richest capitalist in Italy and even in Europe, he is qualified to speak, right?" ”

"Isn't it great to be rich?"

"I'm sorry, but in his mind, maybe having money means being able to do whatever he wants." The reporter humorously said, "Do you need me to publish what you just said?" ”

"Forget it!" Strong sighed, "I don't have the same knowledge as this Mussolini's dog, you write like this, the Fed has always adhered to the principle of policy neutrality, will adhere to the market reality, economic development prospects, credit situation, economic data to make judgments, and rely on our scientific decision-making process to put forward relevant views and policies, the whole process is completely democratic and scientific, reflecting the Fed's professional management ability, we oppose anyone regardless of the facts to point fingers or even spread rumors and slander, Other countries or other foreigners are not allowed to interfere in China's internal affairs! ”

There wasn't a single word in it that mentioned Contini, but everyone knew that now that the president and the Fed were starting to pinch each other, observers were waiting for a good show to begin.

After this war of words, the two sides died down for a few days, and a new variable appeared in the market: because of the high interest rates in the United States, speculative capital began to pour in from various European countries, after all, the interest rate of 20% for stock purchases was not the high interest rate that is often seen, and the interest rate on loans to long-term industrial capital also reached the height of 9-10%, so that profit-seeking capital poured in like sharks smelling blood.

These funds must have gone straight to the place where the profits were highest, and they were too lazy to lend for the long term, which led to the index continuing to climb towards 370 points in late June. In the face of the state of the stock market rebounding little by little, Fed officials finally understood that the American people's confidence in the stock market has not been lost, that is to say, the big bull market is still unfinished, and it may be that only a big disaster can completely cool down the big bull market.

On June 27, three days after Capello became Italy's education minister, the Dow Jones index broke through 370 points, and the stock price rose again, marking the complete failure of the Fed's new policy. As the index reconsolidated and rose, the pace of Contini's stock reduction in June accelerated significantly, and he reduced his holdings by more than $300 million in a month, and the current market value of the remaining stocks is only more than 200 million, of course, the funds from the reduction did not flow out of the stock market - more than 300 million of Contini's holdings were returned to the bank, and the bank changed hands and lent to other people who continue to bet on the rise of the stock market.

In this round of transfers, stocks and loans were transferred from Contini to American investors, and because there was no outflow, the stock market was very stable, and only a few prescient figures were reducing their holdings, but there were not many such people, Livermore counted as one, Joseph Kennedy counted as one (the father of President Kennedy in history, who made his fortune from this crisis), and he said to his friend: "If even the shoe-shiner was buying stocks, I wouldn't want to stay in it anymore!" This wise choice allowed him to withdraw his funds early to lay the foundation for his family's future, but their amount was not large, adding up to a market value of more than $10 million, which was just a drizzle.

In the face of the continued rally in the stock market, Contini believes it is time to take a closer look. On July 5, when he was inspecting agriculture in the southern part of the United States, he was interviewed by reporters again and expressed his views on the stock market:

"Now that the stock market has completed its shock and consolidation and broken through the 370-point mark, I think it's a good thing that our call for some time has been effective. This effect is inextricably linked to the US Federal Reserve, which has attracted large inflows of European capital by its stupid and stubborn insistence on a system of high interest rates. On the surface, this kind of capital injects impetus into the stock market, but on the other hand, it is quite dangerous, and the target of this transnational capital inflow is not industry and commerce but speculative markets, and if the capital market is in turmoil, they will have a collapse effect, so they may be trampled on at that time. If the stock market can continue to rise, the crisis may gradually overcome, but what if it falls? The consequences are unimaginable. ”

Contini knows very well - the reason why the great crisis of 1929 lasted for more than 6 months under such a drastic policy pressure in March is essentially due to the injection of speculative capital in Europe, especially the Jewish speculative capital of Britain and France, which ransacked Germany a few years ago, and a few years later they set their sights on the United States. Everyone closes their eyes and makes a fortune together, why does the president say it?

Now Rockefeller, Mellon, Morgan and others think Contini's idea is strange - this guy shouldn't be angry about this and the Fed, right? However, looking at Contini's consistent performance, they feel that it is very likely, it is said that this is a master who will never suffer losses and lose face, and the Federal Reserve is probably also depressed: how can such a person stay in the United States and not leave? If everyone analyzes carefully, they will see that Contini has spent more time in the United States than anywhere in the world in the past two years, and even the Italian naval fleet has changed the guard one after another, Contini still has no intention of leaving, and continues to point fingers at policy affairs.

The New York Times reporter got an exaggerated headline — the president warned of a crisis, and other newspapers had a weaker headline — and the president warned against letting speculative capital destroy our markets.

Livermore saw it clearly: Contini was now more and more neutral, and he was starting to work on his own layout. Beginning on July 6, Livermore began to intervene in the tentative shorting, and the Union Bank provided relevant financial support, and in order to strengthen supervision, the president of the Union Bank, Francisco, personally sat in the New York branch. In just 15 trading days from July 6 to 25, Livermore deployed nearly 400 million stock short orders - it is easy to short now, everyone is bullish on the bullishness, and brokers wish someone would come to borrow stocks to short.

The $400 million position looks like a lot, but it's a little bit worse than Union Bank's own equity position — almost $500 million in this case, which at best is a hedge to lock in profits rather than a naked short sale.

On July 29, at the investor consultation meeting, Contini, as president of the United Group, made a further statement:

"At present, the stock market has reached a height, I don't know how much more it can rise, but the upward momentum needs to be much stronger and much more than the fall, and now the market value of the entire U.S. stock market has exceeded 60 billion, and it takes $6 billion to continue to rise by 10%, even if it is leveraged by 5 times, it needs to invest $1.2 billion, and the 20% cost of borrowing funds makes the 10% rise tasteless, and it must rise by at least 20% to be profitable, so I think investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market......

The stock performance of the United Group is not bad: in the semi-annual report and prospectus disclosed in advance, the net profit of United Pharma exceeded 5.4 million US dollars, the crude oil production of the two United Petroleum has exceeded 5 million tons, and the order schedule of United Motorcycle is still more than 6 months. My advice is clear: if you want to invest next, you have to find good stocks, and those stocks that only have concepts, no performance, and rush to the top are likely to face a downturn – this is not an era where any stock can go up, nor is it an era where you can make a profit by buying blindfolded. ”

A reporter sensitively asked: "Do you think the stock market will face a decline next?" ”

"The fall is definitely coming, it's just when and where, as far as the Fed's idiotic policy, they will never give up if they don't get the stock market down, so there will definitely be a sharp fall, but ......" Contini smiled slyly, "What I want to remind today is not the prospect that everyone knows that the stock market will fall, I am reminding today that not all stocks can rise in the future." ”

"I see!"

This is the first time that Contini has mentioned the possibility of a decline in the stock market in public, and he used the word "conviction" - the pot is still on the head of the Federal Reserve, he used the word "idiot" to describe it, as for the lack of strength in the rise - everyone did not take it seriously, the president is a specific analysis of specific problems, at least he is still optimistic about the shares of the United Group.

This is also the reason why Contini did not leave in July, late July is the most important time node for the United Group - a large number of American shareholders who hold convertible bonds are about to face a choice, whether to keep bonds or convert them into stocks, they can only receive 1.5% interest on retaining bonds, but it is different when converted into stocks, the current conversion price is about 30% lower than the market price, in other words, after deducting fees and interest to convert to shares, shareholders can earn 30%, and such a time window is only once - is to choose 30% Potential profit or to continue to hold bonds that are guaranteed to be 100% paid?

Although the current stock market is confusing, but the public is still hot, they voted with their feet on August 1, a total of 1.5 billion convertible bonds 1.49 billion turned into stocks, only less than 10 million US dollars continue to remain as bonds, public opinion believes that the 10 million bondholders must have a bad brain or forgot, fools know that if convertible bonds are used as bonds, then only 1.5% interest can be charged a year, and at the moment 18-20% interest is not worth mentioning at all, However, there is a 30% potential benefit in converting into stocks, so why not change it? Change!

On the day of the completion of the stock conversion, Contini reduced the money in the last account in his hand: the account left by Adriana, and finally received 10.4 million, and he asked the other party to send the money - Adriana has been tireless in the radio program in the past 4 months, reminding the stock of risks, and expects a decline, if she hadn't said it in the interview comments, everyone would have thought she had become an unreliable stock commentator......