Chapter Ninety-Three: The Dust Settles
On the third day, the lira continued to appreciate by 1%, speculative capital poured in to exchange foreign currency, and the queue at ordinary windows increased.
By 4 September, the lira had appreciated to 95 lira to 1 pound sterling, and the US dollar had appreciated accordingly, and the middle class, fearing that their foreign exchange would be further strengthened, had joined the process of exchanging dollars for lira.
However, Contini will not really guide the lira to appreciate to the level of 90 lira to 1 pound, the reason why he guides it like this is completely to create an illusion for the people, after all, the public is blindly following their hearts, moderate guidance is okay, and it is stupid to really think that the lira is worth so much money.
In fact, Italy's economic situation in recent years has been good, and the growth rate of the main industrial indicators is the fastest among the major powers, twice that of the United States, and more than three times higher than that of Britain and France. Although it is reflected in the import and export trade, it is actually not much, because there are two factors that need to be eliminated: the first is the large-scale complete sets of equipment imported by the United Group from the United States and Germany; The second was equipment purchased in the name of the United Group, but in fact sold back to the Soviet Union.
Although the latter's equipment imports were hung on Italy's accounts, the Soviet Union actually offset them with raw materials, so this does not reflect the economic flow of Italy, but should be regarded as the Italian economic system is good enough to accommodate so many products.
Although the United Group has made a surplus, the United Group has actually obtained more foreign exchange through external loans and share sales, nearly $1.8 billion in five years. This is not a small amount – Italy's annual defense budget is only $200 million, and Germany, which was hit hard by the Ruhr crisis, has now stabilized the situation with more than $2 billion in financial support from the United States.
As a result, there is a surplus in Italy's real foreign trade structure, as well as a surplus in the capital account – the latter being reflected only in the accounts of the consortium. In fact, it is impossible not to make a surplus, Italy's traditional luxury exports have expanded with the improvement of the European and American economies, and Italy's other industrial products are not exported much, but considering that the income of Italian workers is only one-third of that of the United States and one-half of that of Britain and France, we can know the actual cost and competitiveness of Italian products. The real constraint on the Italian economy was raw materials, but with the Soviet Union, the problem of raw materials was relatively easy to solve.
It is inherently difficult to attack the exchange rates of countries with double surpluses in capital and foreign trade, and the reason why it is necessary to move this time is because Mussolini's statement caused market chaos, and after Contini's strong intervention, this statement has developed in another direction under the impetus of rumors-depreciation, and it is a large depreciation.
That's why the Jewish consortium saw this opportunity to make a move, and it happened that the Baldwin government was ready to kill the original supply problem, and the two sides started a tacit cooperation together. According to the original estimate, the United Group will definitely not be able to hold up the pressure of storage and give up at first, and then there will be a domino effect, leading to the depreciation of the Italian lira exchange rate. There is room for stirring up trouble – devaluation itself is unscientific and irrational, but people can react incorrectly under the unconscious of the group.
Unexpectedly, the oil company retreated in the face of Contini's action of pumping out the lake water to continue to collect and store, and if the Italians continue to collect and store, then the rest of Europe's supply needs to be met by Italy's reserves, which is equivalent to losing their own pricing power, which is more terrible than losing money.
The attack on foreign exchange also encountered trouble, although it was very successful in the early stage, with the borrowed funds exchanged for foreign exchange and consumed Italian inventory, but then because Contini strictly prohibited borrowing, the subsequent lira could not find a place to exchange, and more importantly, Volpi handed over the foreign exchange rights to the Union Bank, which made it extremely troublesome for the consortium to buy. The central bank or other commercial banks, hundreds of thousands of lirah will be defeated, and in the face of the president of a rich country, how much money will it take to buy it?
No one could buy Contini, which meant that the road to exchange for more foreign exchange was impossible, so they could only continue to borrow, and finally reached a loan of 3.5 billion lire from the Bank of Sienna, and when they were about to give Contini another salary, the guards fell from the sky and quickly did what persuasion could not do. In the United States, perhaps no one dares to conglomerate, but in Italy, conglomerates can only temporarily prostrate themselves in the shadow of power. So don't fight this battle in the end.
By the time they had spent all their lira, Contini still had more than $100 million in free foreign exchange in his hands – a final round of reinforcements that was costly but kept the whole scene afloat.
The days of 3 months are getting closer and closer, and the consortium can only exchange the foreign exchange in its hands back into lira to prepare for the return of the loan, at this time Contini has raised the exchange rate, although only 1% does not matter to the people, but for the consortium with loans of up to 18 billion lira, 1% means a loss of nearly 200 million lira.
The well-laid out Jewish consortium knew that Contini was playing tricks on them but there was nothing they could do, because the term of the loan expired, and if they did not exchange foreign exchange for lira and pay off, the other properties and shares they mortgaged would be at risk of default liquidation, and then the damage would not be the immediate interests, but the entire industry itself, so they knew that the appreciation was a scoundrel at this time, and they could only swallow their anger and accept the 5% loss - in fact, their loss was far more than 5%, The 3-month loan period also lost a lot of interest, but compared to other speculative failures, this is only a drizzle of 8-9%.
Of course, Contini is unlikely to make any money, and the 5% spread will have to make up for the costs of his emergency sell-off of shares, additional loans, and other aspects of maintenance.
But in September, the whole market finally returned to calm, the crude oil market continued to fluctuate in a range, and the price of the lira continued to return to the starting point of 100 lira to 1 pound after briefly climbing to a high of 94 lira to 1 pound, and this 6% range is also educating the average Italian middle class, don't make a fool of yourself, you can't get money, you can only work honestly if you want to get rich.
Although there were no major gains in the economy, after these two battles, the status and importance of the Union Bank climbed, not only the stock price further rose to 2.65 US dollars, but also jumped to the first bank in Italy, and more importantly, after returning the 1.2 billion US dollars of foreign exchange loans from the Ministry of Finance, the foreign exchange reserves of the Union Bank itself reached 600 million US dollars, far exceeding the other major banks, and the United Bank carried out cross-border exchange and capital business to provide convenience.
Using this foreign exchange, Contini quietly bought back the shares he had sold off, and completed part of the transfer of his positions by the way. Among the $40 million stock sell-off, the U.S. stock market has not had much of a twist and turn, which has strengthened Contini's confidence that the reduction will not cause much turmoil in two years. Although the process of selling and buying back has lost money, he attaches more importance and importance to the improvement of the market's ability to undertake.
What's more, politics has further cemented Contini's position. Originally, everyone didn't think that the president had any special skills, and the United Group was just lucky, but after the two battles of crude oil and foreign exchange, especially after the "arrest" incident, the business community's view of the president changed - this is a ruthless and determined dictator, and knows more about the economy than Mussolini, and more importantly, the president is only 24 years old! Younger than the second generation of most industrial oligarchs, this means that this rising political giant and economic oligarchy will rule Italy for many years to come.
The senior management of the Bank of Siena did not dare to complain after his release, but rushed to the United Group to apologize as soon as possible, saying that it was really a mistake for Volpi at that time - this made Volpi not feel good, and he also said good things to the banking industry, but people only remembered the fear that fell from the sky, but forgot that they were struggling to maintain.
Contini wanted to apologize to Volpi, after all, this is a minister of his father's generation, he has been aggressive in doing things himself, and it is not good to be aggressive in the world, and under the influence of old Chiano, Count Volpi happily accepted the New York "souvenir" brought by Vivian (the reader must know what this thing is......