"I heard that the French have enclosed a piece of land for the United Group at a port in Annam?" In the Prime Minister's Mansion in Downing Street, London, Baldwin asked Chamberlain in bewilderment, "Neville, what do you think the French think, have they forgotten the lessons of Algeria so quickly?" ”

"I haven't forgotten, but now the Italians are very attentive to crude oil, and the French suddenly feel that this way is also good, they can get a steady stream of crude oil without doing anything, and even when the supply of crude oil was tight last time, the French side did not cut off the supply, so they feel more satisfied...... You know, it's easy for the French to rest on their laurels, and in addition to that, the Union Group gives additional benefits. ”

"What's the benefit?"

"Libyan Oil Company's shareholding."

"It's just to buy equity, it's to take out real money, and it's not for nothing."

"But the price has a big impact." Chamberlain introduced, "In February next year, Algeria United Oil shares will be listed, and now Wall Street is making final preparations for listing, it is said that the current stock price has reached 900 million US dollars, and it is expected to break through 1 billion soon after rising, and those companies in France are generally joined at the moment of 5-600 million, and it is said that Ziano Jr. will also pay a dividend at the end of the year, which means that they have earned double the money in just over 2 years, and now they have found an opportunity to invest in Libya. They certainly won't miss it. France's three major banks are already asking for a 15 percent stake, and the US oil majors and the two major commercial banks are each asking for more than 10 percent of the shares......"

"I see, how much do they value Libyan oil?"

"It's $600 million at the moment, and it could increase to about $700 million!"

"Crazy!" Baldwin exclaimed, "The Libyan oil fields are now only half of the Algerian company's reserves and oil production, and it stands to reason that the valuation is about 450 million, why can it be half of the premium?" ”

"There are reasons for this, firstly, the concession in Libya is 40 years, and in Algeria it is 30 years, and after deducting the development cycle, the actual usable development life is 40% more, which partially narrows the difference between reserves and production; Second, the quality of Libyan crude oil is said to be slightly better than that of Algeria, which is a quality premium; Thirdly, the Libyan oil fields were controlled by the Italians themselves, who considered it a political premium. Chamberlain shrugged, "Actually, I think the Libyan tribal forces are a big threat, but the business people don't see it that way." ”

Baldwin nodded: The so-called political premium is naturally that the territory of the coalition group in France is not safe, and it can be fully guaranteed in Italy's own colonies, and this stability is much more important.

"Of course, the negotiations are not over yet, and the French also want to push down the price, because at the current price, it is difficult to double it after the listing, which makes them a little uncomfortable."

"Are Shell and Anglo-Iranian Petroleum going to intervene?"

"There is no such consideration for the time being, they think that the price is too expensive, and there is also the problem that the more shares they buy, the higher the production of United Oil, which will weigh down the price of Shell and Anglo-Iranian oil - so the two oil speculation failures, the management is under a lot of pressure, and the shareholders and the board of directors are already expressing their dissatisfaction, thinking that they have done too many stupid things because of political factors!"

"Damn! These short-sighted guys! Baldwin cursed, "I'm here for the future of Great Britain." ”

"But they can only see the immediate benefits and the accounting statements at the end of the year, and they can't see the future in a few years or more than ten years, and they are not responsible for this matter......

As he spoke, someone hurried in and handed a telegram to Chamberlain, who could not help frowning.

"What's wrong?" Baldwin asked with concern, "What happened?" ”

"It was the little Ziano who caused the incident, and our consul stationed in Canton City obtained the commercial trade contract they were going to carry out with the United Group through an internal reliable tip. Under the terms of the contract, the United Group will occupy two small islands in the Pearl River Estuary and a piece of wasteland adjacent to Hong Kong, with a total area of ...... It could be more than 200 square kilometers and the price was about 12 million silver dollars. ”

"200 square kilometers of leased land was sold for 12 million silver dollars? Are the Chinese crazy? Sell it to us, I'll pay 20 million! ”

"Your Excellency, this is not a leased land, it is a special commercial zone - the administrative, garrison, and police powers all belong to the Chinese side, and no troops can be stationed, no turrets, fortresses, and permanent fortifications can be built. It can only be used for the development of trade, ports, commerce and residence, and after 50 years all will be taken back by the Chinese side without compensation. Chamberlain smiled, "The Chinese side was still clamoring to take back the lease some time ago, how can it continue to lend to the Italians?" This is not a contract with the Italian government, but with the United Group. ”

"Does it make a difference?"

"There is a difference from a legal point of view, for example, if the Italian government changes the dynasty, the United Group cannot be so arrogant."

"Well, there's no hope in sight, though." Baldwin smiled, "I said how to be so generous, it turns out that this is the case, when did the Chinese learn to be smart and know the truth of letting people develop and then recycle." ”

The original intention of the United Group was to follow the Annan method in the Guangzhou Port to enclose land, but the territory of the Guangzhou Port was basically staffed, and the Guangzhou government did not dare to offend people, so it gave the Italians the barren and empty place in Shenzhen, which is basically a fishing village at present, and brought a convenient condition to build a railway to connect with Guangzhou. You can think about it, how many years did it take for Shanghai to develop? In 50 years, when the prosperity is right, they will be taken back by China! "This business model makes me think only about Hong Kong – can it promote Hong Kong's development or harm Hong Kong's development?" ”

"In short, I personally believe that it is promoted in the short term, because as long as the United Group engages in construction, there will be opportunities to drive the development of Hong Kong, but in the long run, it may form a competitive ......."

"So, what do you mean?"

Chamberlain sighed: "Our term of office is also limited, too long-term things we can't understand, maybe we should also let the business community see something positive, so I think we can let it go, there is no need to interfere, I believe that the future prime minister has the ability to deal with these problems, now I look forward to connecting Guangzhou and Hong Kong by rail, and by the way, the development of Kowloon and the New Territories." ”

"That's a great idea! I couldn't agree more! Baldwin thought for a moment, "But with regard to the resolution of the China problem and the future direction of China's politics, I think the diplomatic system needs to continue to think about what is best for Great Britain!" All in all, be flexible! ”