Chapter 129: The Great Liar and the Great Conspirator (2)
After listening to Roosevelt's judgment, Eleanor was puzzled: "But I have observed that the media has no doubts about this, and there are even many independent financial observers who are helping him speak, I don't think that little Ziano can buy everyone!" ”
"So his scam is very clever, he uses a lot of tricks and bluff packaging to exaggerate and exaggerate this effect, his group of relatives and friends every time they come to New York, they have to buy a lot, and even exaggerate the use of a car fleet, I heard from people in the mall, they go into a counter, not to say anything, but to say - this, that, and don't, everything else is wrapped up for me! Do you really like the product? It's not at all! This is just a big purchase to show his strength, which is essentially marketing and advertising expenses! ”
Eleanor covered her mouth and laughed: "It's really a bit like you say that, I think it's strange, you can buy millions of goods in just a few days, what kind of magic is this?" Italians are not hillbillies who have never seen the world! ”
Roosevelt said, "So, I'm going to say he's a big liar like never before, he can borrow $3 billion, $4 billion, even $5 billion, maybe $10 billion, but he can borrow 20 billion or even 30 billion?" This is impossible, and the US financial system cannot fill this bottomless pit, and this speed will get faster and faster, more and more inflated, and finally it will explode itself if it can't be realized, so he is now engaged in a new scam, issuing convertible bonds - using an ethereal and unseen United Group to undertake convertible bonds, just like a chicken farm borrowing money from others, saying that if the chicks are born, they will return them, but there are no hens on his farm, where are the chicks? ”
"And how did he end up explaining?"
"Confess? Convert all the loans into shares, and then he himself can pull out of them to achieve the perfect golden cicada shell. Roosevelt said slowly, "This is not an illegal hoax, this is a completely legal trap." ”
Eleanor asked a little nervously, "You're not going to poke him, are you?" ”
"No!" At this time, it was Roosevelt's turn to sigh, "First, I haven't become governor yet, and a lawyer who dictates the economy and business may not be listened to by others; Second, his problems have not been fully exposed, and investors' confidence in the United Group has reached its peak because of the success of motorcycles and medicines, and if I come forward to call for a halt, they will be seen as fools; Thirdly, he has a bunch of accomplices on Wall Street, and they all share the money in this model, especially the bloodless investment bankers and intermediaries, who not only encourage the United Group to spin off a little profitable business to go public and make money - I have taken on such a task, and when I offer to sign a statement or promise that the funds obtained by these companies cannot be used by the group, the contract is lost. ”
"And what are you going to do?"
"When I succeed in the election, I will conduct a comprehensive investigation to see if there is any fraud in the whole process - his group is based on a blind confidence, which cannot be analyzed purely by economics, and if this confidence is broken, his business will be destroyed." Roosevelt said angrily, "As long as the banks stop lending tomorrow, his business will be ruined the day after tomorrow, and I can't let him sweep away a lot of capital and leave New York with chicken feathers—it's all a mess I'm going to clean up." ”
While the Roosevelts were secretly discussing Contini's great liar of the century, Contini was discussing the convertible bond situation with Wall Street investment bankers and the financial community: as he expected, all the bankers and investors put away their displeasure when they heard that the United Group would abandon its unlisted shares in favor of listed share convertible bonds, and now they are arguing about how to set the conversion price a little lower so that they can make extra profits.
Just when Contini had announced everything and the market had not had time to digest it, the momentum of the US stock market, which had been soaring all the way, finally slowed down, and forecasters believed that this bull market should indeed come to an end. Entering June, the stock market fell sharply, and the Italian bank stocks owned by the chairman of Bank of America, the Italian-origin financial giant Giannini, bore the brunt this time, and the sudden collapse of the stock price caused huge losses to shareholders. On June 11, Bank of America fell by $120 and Federal Security Bank fell by $80, an overall decline of up to one-third, although it was only concentrated in a few sectors, but it dragged down the performance of the entire market, resulting in a large number of bankruptcies of small shareholders, especially in the over-the-counter market, so much so that even Giannini himself stood up and said: "Now the stock price is ridiculously high, I hope shareholders will be vigilant!" ”
All the bankers and investors came to Contini to discuss countermeasures as if they had made an appointment, and asked him what he thought, but the reason for coming was to communicate about the situation of the 1.5 billion convertible bonds.
Contini knew that this was just a small twist and turn before the US stock market went crazy, so he smiled: "The bull market has characteristics, it rises slowly, it falls fast, but the decline can be pulled up quickly, every squat is to better jump, only the bear market hovers and falls every day, I think this time is not a sign of turning from a bull to a bear, but a release of market risk, reminding us not to operate with too high leverage - the higher the leverage, the faster you die, and you may die in this squat action." ”
People were skeptical of his words, but soon they became excited, because Contini held a small press briefing the next day, at which he casually told reporters: "The United Group thinks these banks are good assets, so the Group has spent $2,000 to sweep the market!" Just look at the reaction! ”
Sure enough, the New York Stock Exchange suddenly appeared to give a sustained, large number of buy orders for stocks that fell sharply yesterday, especially the bank stocks that fell by as much as one-third yesterday are rushing up like a rocket, reporters frantically rushed out to send out a press release, and the news reached the stock market in the last half hour, and all the stocks swept by the Union Bank suddenly rose in a straight line, and even the brokers did not have time to respond to the customer's request to buy.
On June 14, the stock almost completely recovered the flash of the stock price, and some rose, and Giannini, who had just warned about the risk two days ago, suddenly changed his tune and said: "This is a short twist and turn on the road ahead, and the stock price will definitely make great strides towards the goal of $1,000 in the end!" ”
In order to maintain market stability, the group voluntarily locked in for one year, and will not reduce its holdings within one year, and if the Dow Jones index is lower than 350 points after the expiration of one year, it will not reduce its holdings. The market value of the shares purchased by the Group on the previous day was about US$50 million, and now the price has increased to US$100 million, and the Group may further purchase other stocks that the Company believes have investment potential in the future, including but not limited to the banking sector, but the maximum margin will not exceed US$500 million.
This statement undoubtedly gave the market a shot in the arm, and everyone cheered, except for Roosevelt exchanging views with a few close investors: "What the hell is going on?" Isn't it crazy that people are crazy that there will be such a high and staggering stock price in such a market environment where trade is weak and credit is inflating? ”
This is a question in the hearts of some people who still remain rational, but in the face of the rising stock price, they dare not speak up - Renjia United Group has doubled in a few days, and the stock critics who said that the bull market is over two days ago have been slapped in the face.
On the other hand, deep-pocketed speculators invariably ridiculed them: "You guys are so conservative!" How can someone as cowardly as you make a lot of money? Look at the president, that's the winner in life! ”
These people, represented by William Durant, Arthur Carton, the Fisher brothers, and John Lascob, represented a very powerful speculative force of Jewish conglomerates, who bought frantically despite the high stock prices, believing that the current stagnation of national production was completely temporary—that the United Group was not about to launch a procurement storm, and that it would not be long before the economy would improve. What's more, even the president is optimistic about the stock price, which makes them suddenly feel like a bosom friend.
The crappy investor said: "The stock fell sharply two days ago, and the United Group bought more than 50 million shares with $20 million leverage, and you don't see it, it doubled in less than 5 days - you often envy the president's family for being able to spend money on Fifth Avenue to buy and buy, but when you should have the courage to start, you were scared again, so success always belongs to a few." It's never too late to buy stocks! It's not wrong to follow the president! ”
The news that the president made 50 million in 5 days has been lured almost crazy by the media fanfare, and there are more and more examples of the stock market turning a person into a millionaire overnight, this temptation is irresistible to most Americans, who doesn't want to get rich quickly? As soon as the stock market began to resume rising, most people rushed in frantically to buy stocks, and they would not study and predict the future situation at all, and they were even more reluctant to listen to the words of forecasting experts - the president was boldly optimistic about the market outlook, and said that he would hold it for at least a year, and said that he would increase it to 500 million US dollars.
The slogan at that time was: 2 times leverage, happy life; 3 times leverage, make a fortune; 5 times leverage, broad road; With 10 times leverage, as long as you dare to bet, you are a winner in life!
Even the drivers who drive for financiers will listen to their employers in the back seat talking about Bethlehem Steel stock and not be able to concentrate on driving, because he may have bought exactly 50 shares. Due to the huge volume of trading on a daily basis, the New York Stock Exchange made an exception to shut down on Saturdays several times (in this case, the six-day workday) to give stockbrokers who had to overwork each day to take a breather. Of course, these brokers are still lending, and their lending volumes have increased unabated, causing credit inflation to continue to expand.
This situation confused Fed officials, who had raised the rediscount rate from 3.5% to 4%, hoping to cool down overheated investment a little - which was also the trigger for the June crash, but they were surprised to find that the effect only lasted for one day, and after half a month, the market fully recovered, and the investment boom not only did not come down, but intensified, which is simply illogical and contrary to economic principles.