Chapter 37: The Big Short (24)
Mellon was also a little inexplicable by Hoover, but the stock market fell so sharply, he was under a lot of pressure, and finally reluctantly said: "Look at the situation in the afternoon, see if the index can be better, if it can be pulled up, maybe there will be a ...... to save it"
At the opening of the afternoon session, Contini let Livermore harvest, while carefully checking the stock market trends, sure enough, Hoover's words at noon had a certain effect, although Mellon himself would be skeptical, but still told the news to Wall Street colleagues through the internal circle, and the stability maintenance fund headed by Mitchell desperately adjusted its position and exchanged shares, abandoning those speculative concept stocks, and focusing on large-scale blue chips with indicator significance - the overall bull market is not good, and the structural bull market is good. Besides, the average P/E ratio of small tickets and concept tickets is more than 80 times, which is indeed too high, but the blue chip is now only 15 times P/E, which is supported by real performance, which is not high at all......
In the afternoon, after the Dow Jones hit the lowest level of 264 points, it finally lived up to expectations and began to rise, although the initial 20-point rebound suffered a wave of selling, but in the case of several major companies working together to save themselves, the key index stocks have improved greatly, at least the trading volume is, not straight down, but for speculators, especially leveraged people's favorite concept stocks, theme stocks, hot stocks, high price-earnings ratio stocks are still falling, the entire Wall Street investment institutions get the same instructions: keep the big and abandon the small! In Hoover's words, it is necessary to be bold and bold to make the backbone key enterprises bigger and stronger, and as for those small companies, they will return to where they come from.
Since the Dow Jones index is not an index that covers the stock market as a whole, but only selects giant companies in the industrial and energy sectors, the stock market is quickly polarized by this force: large stocks represented by U.S. steel and General Motors have begun to stop falling and rebound, while small stocks that have fallen sharply, and stocks with high price-earnings ratios are falling in a straight line.
Livermore came over to ask what to do, and Contini muttered for a long time: "What do you think is better to deal with?" ”
"That depends on the estimation of the market outlook, do you think 264 points can be kept? Or, can it hold on in the short term? ”
Contini shook his head: "It's impossible, 264 points can hold for 1-2 weeks at most, and I think sooner or later it will fall below 200 points, or even below 150 points." When he said this, he didn't dare to say that it had finally fallen to 47 points in history - that would be terrible.
"If that's the case, I'll understand...... We're going to hold on, wait until we get up, and we'll go and close our positions now, and buy some bonds and stocks in the joint system. ”
"To diversify positions, the Fed and the exchange may soon have to check." Contini mused, "How many positions are there now?" ”
"4.4 billion, according to the ratio of margin, can support a position of 8 billion."
"Some of the money will be returned to the Union Bank at the beginning of next month, and then to the Federal Reserve, which I promised. Cut the position to less than 4 billion, and look at it for a day for the time being, we are not in a hurry to beat the stock market to death with one rod......"
At the end of the day, countless people left the exchange in exhaustion – the volume of records was so large today that it took 105 minutes for the telex to complete the transmission of all the transaction data.
In this stock market crash known as "Bloody Monday", the Dow Jones index began to fall from more than 370 points, the lowest fell to 264 points, and only began to slowly raise its head at noon and afternoon, but in the end it only rose to 292 points, failing to regain the 300-point mark, and investors who are familiar with the stock market can see that the so-called tail rebound is only a rebound in the market and large tickets, and those small tickets and market rumors continue to hit the abyss with the hottest theme stocks - today I am embarrassed to call myself a hot bull stock before if I don't cut half of it.
Even at 292 points, the stock market has fallen by 80 points, which is twice as high as last Monday, and the number of liquidators is twice as high as last week - not to mention 5-6 times leverage, 3 times leverage is included in forced liquidation. It was really the luck of some people that the strong period had rebounded again, so they were lucky enough to avoid the forced liquidation, and the overall market value of the stock market evaporated by more than $13 billion, so that Hoover had to come forward to make a speech to stabilize the morale of the military.
Hoover grimly said to the reporters, "...... The basic enterprises of the United States, that is, the process of commodity production and distribution, are based on sound and prosperous foundations, and some setbacks for the time being will not shake this prospect and confidence, I still maintain a cautious optimistic attitude towards the American economy, and now we need to boost confidence and reduce operations, similar to those companies with poor fundamentals, without any industrial support, and lack of follow-up development space, I think their stock prices have bubbles, and the fundamentals of those key companies are still good, with a price-to-earnings ratio of only 14-18 times, It is considered a relatively stable range......"
This is the first time that the official has announced the demise of the small ticket with clear information, of course, the wording is very cautious, Hoover chose to rely on it when he could not keep all the capitalists - the target is, of course, big conglomerates, big enterprises, big capitalists, and the rest, just take advantage of this round of reshuffle for Wall Street to swallow, for many years Wall Street has not relied on the crisis to carry out mergers and acquisitions and asset restructuring? As long as this is done, those lawyers, accountants, auditors, rating agencies and even investment banks will have a lot of room for sharing, and it will not be difficult to create another capital feast.
When asked by a reporter what he thought of the United Group's breach of the contract, Hoover replied solemnly: "First of all, this is a normal business transaction, and both parties have contracts and are performing relevant rights and obligations in accordance with the contract; Secondly, the United Bank, a subsidiary of the United Group, lost a lot of money some time ago because of market confidence and a run on depositors - according to their statistics, as high as 900 million US dollars, any big bank will have problems in the face of such a violent liquidity tightness, but the Union Bank did not have a default event, the rights and interests of all depositors have been guaranteed, and the loan has been repaid on time, which behind the United Group has made a lot of sacrifices, reflecting the attitude of a highly responsible consortium. This sacrifice was first manifested in the suspension of the equipment purchase contract for the guarantee of liquidity, which several business leaders and I regretted and understood, and made a special call to the president to hope that this decision could be changed, or at least partially changed, and he said that he would consider it carefully......"
"You mean that the United Group will continue to fulfill the contract? Aren't many companies announcing that they have made a provision for losses? ”
"That's right...... But the contract is dead, people are alive, for example, General Motors made it clear that they and the United Group have a good history of cooperation in the past, and the communication and exchanges between the two sides have been very pleasant, and this extraordinary period cannot fall into the ground, and the board of directors unanimously agreed after holding an emergency meeting that the payment cycle of the United Group can be extended for 3 months, which is not regarded as a breach of contract...... A similar meeting of GE's board of directors is taking place, and I am optimistic that a compromise will be reached...... I made a one-hour and 15-minute telephone call to the president today, patiently persuaded the president, and explained and coordinated from various aspects, such as focusing on the future stability and friendship of the relations between the two countries, from focusing on the historical cooperation between the United Group and the US business circles, and from the misunderstanding between the United Group and the US financial circles. ”
Hoover changed his words: "Today, many reporters or media vaguely blame the president's statement for the decline in the stock market, but I think this attitude is not objective. No one person or company can manipulate the U.S. stock market, and the United Group and its president do not have such great energy. The stock market is basically a withdrawal of the internal laws of the market. Taking a step back, who wants to lose $500 million in deposits for nothing unless absolutely necessary? It's easy to break mutual trust, it's hard to build it, and now is an era when confidence is more precious than gold, and I think only mutual trust can get through this......"
"What do you think of so many jumps today?" The reporter said, "According to the information we have obtained, 39 people jumped off buildings in New York alone today, exceeding the total number of people jumping off buildings in the country last Monday by ......."
"First of all, I would like to express my condolences to these deceased and their families, it is really sad that things have come to this point." Hoover took off his glasses with great talent for performance, took out a handkerchief and wiped his eyes, as if there were really tears flowing out of them, and then said in a choked voice, "This is the misfortune of the times, I hope others will learn a lesson and reduce leverage as soon as possible, the government, the Federal Reserve, and the exchange are studying whether to limit the leverage multiplier......"
In fact, Hoover said one less word, and when the internal meeting was held, some scholars raised whether to ban short selling, but it was opposed by many tycoons led by Mellon, on the grounds that it was high-sounding: you can't change the rules at will, otherwise it may lead to a loss of confidence, and another round of plunge tomorrow will be really hopeless. In fact, everyone knows that this is just an external slogan, and the real situation is that these tycoons have not completed the short-selling arrangement, nor have they sold the stocks that should be sold, how can they tolerate changing the rules now? If you want to change it, you have to wait until they have it arranged.
In the end, 3 proposals were reluctantly approved:
First, the introduction of a circuit breaker mechanism, suspend trading after the stock market plummets by 7%, let all parties in the market calm down, pause for 15 minutes to facilitate communication and coordination, if it falls by 10% again, then the trading will be suspended throughout the day - everyone agrees that it is necessary, anyway, the consortium has direct seats, and any movement is clear at a glance, Xiaomin, it is better to break yourself;
Second, reduce the leverage ratio, large blue chips can reach 6 times, small stocks can only reach 2.5 times - this is for the good of your small people, just lose all your money, don't keep thinking about jumping off the building to block the government, you must consciously maintain the image of the government and respect the authority of management;
Third, limit naked short selling, the so-called naked short selling is simply short selling without any position on hand, which is the New York Stock Exchange statistics on today's situation and found that there are many people who take advantage of the situation to short, and they actually make a lot of profits, taking advantage of the tycoons - how can Wall Street carry a sedan chair for Xiaomin? This is not conducive to the consortium to cut leeks, it should be strictly prohibited, only the consortium is allowed to short, because the consortium has a lot of stocks on hand, but it is finally "benevolent" to give a little concession, naked short positions can be closed within a month, more than a month overdue to force the liquidation.
The improvements were implemented from September 24 and the stock market opened until 10:30 on Tuesday to give the market time to react.
That night, countless reporters flocked to the United Group in the hope of interviewing Contini - because the president, who had repeatedly predicted the decline of the stock market, was so accurate that the US stock market was now plummeting. In the past, jumping off the building was news, but now the jumping off the building can no longer arouse everyone's interest, stocks are the focus of attention, reporters want to ask whether tomorrow is Zhang or fall, and even panicked professional investors are gathered outside in the hope of listening to one or two.
In the final analysis, the rise of more than 20 points at the end of the day has made these gamblers see a little hope, and they always think that the destiny is endless, and there is still a chance to turn over.
But Union Bank has long said that the president will not hold a press conference until Tuesday, so please be calm.
In the face of the rejection, these reporters and investors really fought, all rushed to the Union Bank willingly, they know that now the president lives here, although they don't understand why Contini has a high-level hotel with good facilities and prefers to live in the front line and "share weal and woe" with the staff, but the reporters still admire this spirit, especially after they visited once, they found that neither Contini's bedroom nor Francisco's room is not luxurious, that is, the standard of a large company's guest house, and it is very commendable.
How do they understand that Contini is not very particular about food, clothing, housing and transportation, and he is too lazy to work luxury and luxury, but he really pays attention to safety, and no rich man in the world can learn it, and the reporters only see the rest place on the surface of the Union Bank, and the real core place is in the underground bunker - only it cannot be open to reporters, and what decorates the president's mansion is not some precious oil paintings and antique furniture, but the defensive wall built by tanks, armored vehicles, and battleship armor belts decorates the president's mansion.
They kept negotiating with the personnel of the United Bank, hoping that the president would show up and say a few words to everyone: everyone knows that the president is in a bad mood, so just say a few words.
So for the first time, Union Bank showed signs of not queuing for withdrawals, in order to prevent the information from being cut off by the middle level, everyone shouted in unison below, "Please meet the president", "Please meet the president", and then a few people said that this is not good, "please meet the president" It seems that we are too strong, too aggressive, and the president does not owe us, we are begging people to talk to us.
Everyone nodded yes and asked, "How should I shout?" ”
"I've seen Italian movies, and that's what people call them......" He stood up "in fear", raised his right hand in a salute, and shouted in a fanatical tone, "Long live the leader!" ”
Thanks to his correct Italian sentence, everyone was shocked by this scene. There was also a reporter who knew Italian and said: "The leader is not there, we have to shout the president, the president is the preparatory leader...... so everyone stood below in unison and shouted "Long live the president", but it was still in Italian, and for a time it was the sound of the mountains and the tsunami, and the whole bank was shaken. Mediterranean hegemon