"Father, I wonder if you have noticed the current economic and political situation in Germany?"

"Germany?" Old Ziano thought about it carefully, "It seems that the situation is indeed not ideal, it is very messy, but I can't comment on the rest, I haven't paid much attention to ...... recently"

"Germany's reparations crisis was deepening, and in July the Albert government reluctantly paid 2 billion gold marks in reparations, and then demanded a reduction in the amount of war reparations and a postponement of post-1922 reparations, citing inflation and fiscal crises. Proceeding from its traditional European balance of power policy and economic interests, Britain was unwilling to weaken Germany too much, and tried to reduce Germany's compensation obligations, and suggested that Germany's total compensation be reduced to 50 billion gold marks and that the payment be deferred for four years. France, Belgium and we opposed the reduction of the total amount of German reparations and agreed only to a two-year extension. and demanded that Germany bear the costs of the occupation forces during this period and submit 'production collateral', otherwise the Entente had the right to occupy the Ruhr area. ”

Being reminded by Contini like this, the elder Chiano suddenly reacted, and there is indeed a discussion topic on the agenda of today's meeting - whether it is consistent with the position of France and Belgium on Germany's claims.

"Due to the disagreement and the crisis that have always existed, the exchange rate of the Deutsche Mark has plummeted, falling by 45% in just four months, and now it is almost at the price of 4,300 marks to 1 dollar...... "Contini's report is particularly solid, it is full of newspapers cut out of the Deutsche Mark exchange rate chart and the newspaper summary of the German crisis - in Italian, German and English, showing that the crisis is indeed deepening, and the old Ziano looked more carefully, and nodded frequently while reading.

"On the surface, this is due to the problems caused by the Franco-German reparations dispute, but the deeper cause is the deep insecurity in France and the Franco-German contradictions. In the eyes of France, with Germany's industrial base, population size, and geographical location, it would be easy to make a comeback, and therefore strongly advocated weakening or even dismembering Germany, and eliminating Germany's industrial and military capabilities forever; Britain, on the other hand, proceeded from the traditional continental balance of power, and was unwilling to weaken Germany too much and let France sit on a large seat in Europe; Moreover, the United States is not willing to allow Germany to collapse, because this will not only lead to chaos in the European economy and hinder the sales of American products, but also trigger a possible chain revolution across Europe......"

"So you mean that because Britain and the United States will intervene, and their power is clearly stronger than the French, this crisis will eventually be resolved peacefully?"

"Your judgment is ultimately correct, but I think there is another episode...... "Contini stressed, "the issue of reparations is just an excuse for France, and the amount of reparations from Germany will not solve the problems facing the French economy at all, and the most important purpose of the Poincaré government (the French Prime Minister) is to suppress Germany, so I assert that there will be a big event - for example, France and Belgium will jointly send troops to occupy the Ruhr area and force Germany to comply!" Moreover, this kind of clamor has already begun to appear in the French and Belgian media, otherwise the Poincaré government would not have raised the word about the cost of the occupation forces this time. ”

Old Ziano was shocked: "Will Britain and the United States really sit back and watch this kind of thing happen?" ”

"Britain and the United States, of course, will not help France to suppress Germany, but they will not help Germany to send troops against France, for the people of both countries now have a great aversion to war, let alone to war against their former enemy, Germany. The German army has been disbanded, and it is impossible to fight the French army with those 100,000 Wehrmacht, as long as France wants to occupy it, he will definitely be able to occupy it! But the occupation will not solve the problem, but will only be the brewing of another revolutionary crisis, and it will be at that stage that Britain and the United States will come forward to pick up the pieces, and France will have to back down. "The Ruhr area is the economic and industrial lifeblood of Germany, and if it is occupied by France, the German economy will collapse...... The political turmoil in our previous period led to a 25% drop in the exchange rate, how much do you think the mark would fall if the Ruhr area is occupied? ”

"Probably...... At least...... 50% or more. ”

"If the crisis lasts longer than 3 months, I can expect Mark to fall by more than 90%!" Contini, who has the knowledge of time-traveling, knows that the average mark will eventually fall by more than 99.99999%, and it will take 1 trillion marks to exchange for 1 dollar at the craziest time, but he can't say so sure, predicting that the mark will fall by 90% is scary enough.

"So you want to engage in this speculation?" [Readers who have not seen the relevant content after "Iron Cross" 404 can pay attention to the prestige public account "Moon Shadow Wutong" to get the follow-up plot]

"Yes, the main bet is on the fall of the mark exchange rate. One-third of the positions are going to speculate on foreign exchange directly, and the other two-thirds are going to hedge foreign exchange and then see if they can make some other speculation. "I know you don't have 20 million lire of cash on hand, I'm going to take out a loan from a German bank against my family property, and then finish the job, there are still German banks in Rome, and your position, our family's influence should make this loan easier." ”

If Contini came up directly and said that he wanted 20 million lira to speculate, the old Ciano would definitely think that his son was crazy, but there was the first successful speculation, coupled with the detailed discussion and analysis just now, the old Ciano already had seven points of conviction, and after a moment of silence, he said: "I can't guarantee whether the family business can be loaned from the bank to the equivalent of 20 million lire marks, but I will try my best." In addition, this amount of money is too large, and I am afraid that you will be at risk yourself, and you will need to arrange for others to help you manage it. ”

"Of course, I'm too young and the bankers will look down on me. However, I hope I can have enough say in how to arrange the use. ”

"Yes, although it is a family business, but in the final analysis, the future will be yours, if you lose, the loss is also your ......" Old Chiano smiled slightly, and found that there were still 15 minutes left to leave, so he asked casually, "I didn't expect to be the Minister of Transportation at first, I thought that the leader would let me be the Minister of the Interior, so it is also a care for you." ”

Old Ciano actually had a little pimple in his heart when he said this, everyone knew that the Minister of the Interior had more power, but he didn't expect Mussolini to occupy the Prime Minister, the Foreign Secretary, and the Home Secretary alone, but Contini's answer was unexpected: "No, father, I think it is better and more advantageous for you to be the Minister of Transport than the Minister of the Interior." ”

"Why?"

"Although the leadership has successfully formed a cabinet and temporarily suppressed the voice of opponents, this resistance and opposition will not really disappear, but will be expressed in other forms. If you are the Home Secretary, you will face endless protests, boycotts, and opposition in the coming years, and the character of the leader will definitely require you to suppress with an iron fist......" Contini blinked, "It is not in line with your personality, nor with our family's social status and principles. ”

Old Chiano was silent, he was born in the aristocracy, he had a high social status before, and naturally understood the intricacies of politics, and because of this, he was considered a relatively moderate high-level in the Black Shirts, and his methods were not as ruthless as the Big Four, and he was also opposed to being too violent and bloody, otherwise with his status and influence, how could he be under the Big Four?

He sighed: "The Minister of the Interior can have an immediate effect on the stability and order, but the Minister of Transport is not good, Italy's transportation system is old and dilapidated, and it costs money to improve it slightly, and now the government is very short of money...... If you don't get results, the leader won't be satisfied. ”

"I have two ideas that don't have to invest too much money and it works well......"

"You say, you say." Old Ciano couldn't wait to signal his son to speak.