Subtitle of this chapter: Saint Seiya is coming, economics is over.

………………………………………………

"Dr. Yuan, you're talking about oil, right?"

“BINGO！”

Our Master Yuan nodded to a gentleman with round-rimmed glasses and a goatee among the two who had just walked in and said, "Dr. Owen Fisher, you're right. It's oil! ”

Irving? Irving Fisher (1867-1947) was a New Yorker through and through. He was the first Ph.D. in economics at Yale University, but he received his degree in the Department of Mathematics at Yale University.

His doctoral dissertation, "A Mathematical Study of the Theory of Value and Prices," used quantitative analysis to examine utility theory, and is still a must-read for economists a hundred years later. This paper established him as the first mathematical economist in the United States.

MV=PT – Fisher's equation is considered to be E=MC^2 for economics. (note 1)

Later economists called it a tool that revealed God's secrets, an academic atomic bomb. It was from this equation that Milton Friedman, the guru of the Chicago School, built the magnificent edifice of monetarism, and the Fisher-Price equation is also the foundation of modern money banking.

He was also the president of the AEA in 1918.

However, this guy was unlucky in the Great Depression, not to mention the money.

On October 20, 1929, he made a prediction that the stock market "had reached a plateau that seemed to last forever."

On October 21, the New York Stock Exchange was sold off in large sums as soon as it opened, with more than 6 million shares sold throughout the day, so that the stock market automatic recorder did not record the last trade until 1 hour and 40 minutes after closing.

On this day, he told the outside world that the stock market was "just correcting on the edge of madness."

On October 23, the situation continued to deteriorate, with the New York Times index falling 31 points.

He said that the Wall Street bankers' conference unanimously agreed that "the value of the stock market is not exaggerated at all," implying that the stock market should still rise.

On Oct. 29, he said......

By the way, it was Black Tuesday, so he didn't say anything.

However, he refused to shut up after this, and wrote "The Deflationary Theory of Debt in the Great Depression" and "100% Money", both of which declared that the government and banks should strictly control the amount of money in circulation, and even implement a 100% deposit deposit system.

The reputation of liberal economists has been ruined in this way by guys like Owen Fisher!

Yuan Yanqian looked around at these economists in the room, and secretly gritted his teeth, Lao Tzu must find a way to make you all shut up when the time comes......

"The Economist Flu refers to a strange epidemic of infections that occurred in New York in October 1929. From September to October of the same year, under the call of Mr. Yuan Yanqi, a world conference of economists was held in Los Angeles, which was attended by major economists from all over the world.

There was no particular theme at the conference, just academic exchanges and private meetings. Some say it's more of a vacation trip than an academic conference. However, since the travel expenses of the participants were all provided by the Committee of the General Assembly, the Conference was considered by all to be a great success.

However, after the conference ended in early October, the participating economists went home and fell ill with symptoms of high fever and coma, most severely Yale professor Owen Fisher, who was in a coma for more than a month.

However, by November, almost all of the patients had recovered without medication and were able to recover quickly. Only two or three died of old age or infirmity.

They missed the last black 10 days of October, and they missed the best opportunity to save the Great Depression.

Therefore, some people say that the Great Depression was a conspiracy of Mr. Yuan Yanqi, who deliberately summoned economists and made them sick to bring about the Great Depression. Of course, this is nothing more than a conspiracy theory.

At that point in time, there was an outbreak of bird flu on the west coast of the United States, and it is estimated that the participants were accidentally infected, so it was called the 'economist's flu'. ”

—Excerpt from SCP Encyclopedia: The Economist Flu

Our Master Yuan said to everyone: "Gentlemen, I know it seems a bit strange now, but as an economic worker, you must have a forward-looking and overall vision......

"The revolution of the internal combustion engine, which began in the second half of the 19th century, got us on the wheel. Before the last European war, more than half a million cars were produced worldwide every year. And just last year, we in the United States alone produced more than 2 million cars of all kinds! ”

"And how many more years? 3 million, 4 million, or even 5 million is not impossible. ”

In fact, in 1926 the world produced more than 5 million cars, and the United States alone produced 4.3 million of the 5 million cars.

"At the same time, it is foreseeable that sooner or later the steam engine on trains and ships will be replaced by the internal combustion engine. At that time, oil will be the blood flowing in the world's economic system. Without oil, there can be no international trade. ”

"In the chemical industry, oil is also the most important raw material, and I believe that with the development of chemical technology, more artificial compounds can be extracted from oil, which will inevitably lead to a material revolution!"

When she thinks of petrochemical industry, Yuan Yanqian thinks of nylon, thinks of nylon, thinks of stockings, and thinks of stockings......

"Pickup pickup."

"Master ball, what's so skinny? I didn't think about being a stocking! ”

"Host, what you want is a bit inappropriate, so this system picks up, you still have to pay attention to the host......"

"Shut up!"

Our Master Yuan shook his head, shook off the chatter and inappropriate pictures of those master balls, and then said passionately: "Think about it, gentlemen. Isn't oil, which brings convenience and wealth to mankind, more qualified as a monetary standard than gold, which can only be kept in a vault? ”

OIL DOLLAR - Oil Dollar, how can you put forward such an advanced concept if you are not a traveler?

In the original timeline, until the mid-seventies of the twentieth century, when the "Bretton Woods monetary system" collapsed, Dr. Kissinger, an old friend of the Chinese, was appointed as the US Secretary of State, whose primary mission was how to "guide" the oil-exporting countries to accept the US dollar as the sole denomination and settlement currency for international oil transactions.

He succeeded, convincing other OPEC members through Saudi Arabia, and finally making the "peg" of the dollar to oil the consensus of the world. And the U.S. Treasury can buy oil by printing money, a privilege that no other country has.

The United States exports the virtual symbol of the dollar in exchange for the injection of oil, a real resource, while the rest of the world uses real goods and services to exchange dollars from the United States to buy essential oil, and these "petrodollars" are turned into US stocks, Treasury bonds and other financial assets in the form of repatriation, filling the US trade and fiscal deficits and supporting the US economy.

The "petrodollar" gave the United States a real weapon for its eventual victory over the Soviet Union-led socialist bloc...... Of course, a large country in the East also played a big role.

However, in this timeline, he proposed "petrodollars" so early, why didn't the master ball pick up? Because......

"Dr. Yuan, you are indeed a science fiction writer that even Mr. Albert Einstein admires, and you do have an extraordinary imagination. But your imagination seems to be too extraordinary when it comes to economics. ”

Another middle-aged man in his fifties who had followed Owen Fisher in couldn't help but interrupt him.

Yuan Yan looked at it fixedly, then asked with a smile, "Are you Professor Wesley-Claire-Mitchell?" (esley Clair Mitchell， 1874~1948)”

"It's me." The other party was stunned for a moment, and asked with a little doubt, "Dr. Yuan, do you know me?" ”

"Professor Mitchell, how could I not know about you, the famous Columbia University professor, and your NBER? ……”

Of course, the "people" mentioned by Master Yuan are not "people".

He was an important figure in the institutional school and, like Irving Fisher, made significant contributions to the quantitative school and the American statistical community. The two have a good personal relationship, so they came together.

NBER stands for The National Bureau of Economic Research. Professor Mitchell is the current head of the bureau. (Author's note: The information about NBER in the previous article is incorrect, and this one is based on the English wiki.) ）

Don't look at the "XX Bureau of the United States", but this is not a government agency like the FBI at all, but a private non-profit research institution.

In fact, NBER was founded by Professor Mitchell last year. And the first research project of this institution was national income and its distribution.

Since then, NBER's main research project has been to continuously revise Mitchell's own book, The Business Cycle, in light of the development of economic realities, including the use of national income data.

Since then, the NBER has grown in size, with more than 20 research projects covering all aspects of economics. More than 30 Nobel laureates in economics and 12 chairmen of the U.S. President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) have worked in it.

One of the more inflated was President Reagan's CEA chairman, and Martin Feldstein, the father of the supply school, was the previous NBER.

He was instrumental in the "success" of Thatcher-Reagan Doctrine and the resurgence of neoclassical liberalism.

Later, after Mises went into exile in the United States in the late thirties, he received a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation and worked for a time in the NBER.

Yuan Da economist said in his heart, I know that I have traveled to the United States in the early 20th century, and those who don't know think that I have crossed into a Xianxia plane with many sects.

"Hahaha......" Yuan Yanqian laughed a few times, pointed to his head and said, "Professor Mitchell is right, maybe my imagination is too rich." But ......"

He looked straight and said in a deep voice: "Gentlemen, I am here to make a prophecy with my imagination. There will come a time when the gold standard will not be able to be implemented, and when that time comes......"

"THE ONLY THING THAT CAN REPLACE GOLDN GOLD IS BLACK GOLD!"

"The reason why Mr. Yuan Yanqian became one of the greatest economists of the twentieth century is that some people even think that this one should be removed. In addition to his great contribution to neoclassical liberalism, he also made a lot of quite precise ...... about the future Accurate to the terrible prophecy. Among them is petrodollars.

As early as 1921, he anticipated the collapse of the gold standard, not once, but twice, the Great Depression and the two times after World War II. He also gave a prescription for oil as a standard for world currency.

According to his prediction, the eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf would become an extremely important region.

Since then, Yuan has instilled in the American economic and political elite the idea that a unified and powerful political entity must not emerge in that region, even if it is a coalition linked by a certain religion.

Therefore, it is very necessary for the United States and even the Western bloc to foster a "heterogeneous" political entity in that region, that is, Israel.

"Coincidentally", at a time when Nazi Germany was in its prime, Adolf Hitler had the same idea. I don't know if this is the result of his own thinking strategy, or if he refers to Mr. Yuan's theory. So he ordered the expulsion of a large number of Jews and sent them to Israel.

What is even more "coincidental" is that during the Great Purge of the Soviet Union, many Jews who identified as "Trotskyists" and "Internationalists" were also exiled by Stalin, and these Red elements were naturally not popular anywhere, and a large number of them had to go to their ancestral homeland.

The consequence of this was that after World War II, a quasi-red state emerged in the region, with a very socialist economic system and a very strong atheist in the ideological field.

These atheists not only suppressed the Jewish fundamentalists in the country, but also began to spread atheism to their Semitic brethren.

Naturally, this behavior made the local conservative religious forces hate it very much, and took the initiative to introduce the power of the Western world to counter the quasi-red Israel.

At the same time, atheist Jews abandoned their old grievances and began to cooperate with the Soviets.

So soon after, the first Middle East war broke out......

The petrodollar has indeed stabilized the economic situation in the free world, but it has also brought endless troubles, risks and even disasters to the world economy.

We can't help but ask, did Mr. Yuan Yanqian know this at that time......

——Excerpt from "Oil: The Black Gold of Yuan Yanqi" (note 2)

……………………………………………………

Note 1: M denotes the average amount of money in circulation in a given period; V represents the average number of turnover times per unit of currency in a certain period, that is, the velocity of money; P denotes the weighted average of the prices of goods and services; T denotes the number of goods and services traded.

Fisher-Price Equation Explained...... You guys go Baidu.

Note 2: This brain hole can't be opened to the fullest, and Murong is also very sorry, but the reason you know. Patients, you can open it yourself.

PS: Subscriptions to these chapters have dropped significantly, so economics is at it.