Subtitle of this chapter: Prophecy is risky, pretend to be cautious.

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With money, of course, you can do whatever you want.

Of the four gentlemen, George Baker is the richest man at the moment, and his family is about to donate $6 million to Harvard University and $1 million to NYU.

In the decade or so before his death in 1932, the "Wall Street Miracle" donated about $15 million!

Fifteen million dollars in the twenties...... World War I was enough to build a battle cruiser detachment to play with. You know, the Cow Hood cost only "only" six million pounds.

To put it bluntly, if you really want to have a country to play, this money is enough to find a place in black Africa where birds don't.

However, everyone knows that Yuan Yanqian is talking about the Southeast Asian colonies of the Dutch, and it is a strategic point of great wealth.

The Palembang oil field on the island of Sumatra alone is mouth-watering.

By 1939, Palembang produced 4.7 million tons of oil a year, and the annual consumption of neon gold was only 4.95 million tons. Moreover, the quality of oil produced in Palembang is only that of Brent light oil in the British North Sea, and the sulfur content is so low that it can be burned directly.

It is no wonder that the shameless Japanese Navy is shamelessly heading south.

"Gentlemen, I don't need to say it, you also know that it is not a matter of money to build a country in Nanyang. BU…… U…… UT！ ”

Our Master Yuan said categorically: "But this is not impossible. ”

"Gentlemen, there is only one problem before us, and that question is ......"

He first deliberately lengthened his tone, then took a puff of cigar to whet the appetite of the three of them, and then said in an accentuated tone: "Will we still encounter a world war?" ”

To this question, gentlemen with a little insight in 1921 will answer, quite possibly.

However, the "world war" they imagined was a bit different from the World War II that came later, and there was nothing like the fascist steel axis. They thought that the next opponent would be the more feared Bolshevik Red League.

Whether it was the "Dawes Plan" and the "Younger Plan" to support Germany, or the sale of oil and "scrap steel" to Japan, it also included personally helping Lin Bei's legs to engage in 3412, and later encircled and suppressed the Spanish Republican government.

In the eyes of Western gentlemen, this is all a good fulfillment of the obligation to oppose and defend against the red flag.

As for helping the Soviet Union with its first five-year plan, firstly, the capitalists would sell the urine that killed their nooses as long as it was profitable, and secondly, after the Great Depression, the big guys could not care so much.

"If your answer is completely impossible, then there's not much to say."

"But if your answer is yes, shouldn't we do a little bit of preparation beforehand?"

"I dare to bet on all my possessions, that if the next world war breaks out, the whole of Europe will be left to its own devices. At that time, there will be a power vacuum in most of the world's colonies......"

"That's our chance!"

“……”

The three of them were silent for a while, and Louis Baker was the first to ask, "Neo, how long do you think the next big war is left?" ”

"Fifteen years!"

In the original timeline, World War II broke out in 1939, and the Pacific War began in 1941, so did our Master Yuan make a mistake or deliberately advance the time to fool people?

Not really. The fifteen years he refers to are 1936, the year when the Spanish Civil War began.

In fact, the Spanish Civil War was not the trigger for World War II, at most it counted as a dress rehearsal. The impact on the political pattern of Europe at that time was not very large, which also promoted the "friendship" between the two of temperance and the upside-down hanging man.

But this war is very much in line with the Western imagination of a "world war". On the one hand, there is the conservative clique of Catholic landlords and officers, and on the other hand, there is the radical left-wing coalition that wants to bring all conservative forces to the ground.

And at that time, many people in the world, whether on the left or on the right, sincerely believed that this was the beginning of the redness of Europe and even the world.

Master Yuan, who had been prepared, said very simply: "Louie, you are also half an economist. Mr. Baker, on the other hand, is an experienced economist. You should know what a business cycle is. ”

He turned his head to look at his nephew and said, "Professor, the economic cycle is simply a phenomenon that alternates between economic expansion and economic contraction, and repeats itself. A cycle will have four phases: boom, recession, bust and recovery. ”

"Obviously, we are entering this phase of prosperity, and I would like to be an optimist, so that I can assume that the world and the United States can prosper forever," Yuan said. ”

"But as an economist, I have to be pessimistic about the prosperity that will always end, and that recessions and depressions await us."

"So what will recessions and depressions bring? Revolutions and wars, of course! ”

"We are again in an increasingly interconnected global market. Recessions and depressions are no longer confined to one country or region, and revolutions and wars will spread all over the world like the Spanish flu of previous years......"

"Neo......" George Baker interrupted him abruptly, frowning, "like you said, you're an economist." Then there's no way you can stop an economist like you...... Well, at least mitigate the effects of recessions and depressions? ”

Of course, there is a solution, and it is still ready-made.

As long as Master Yuan jumps from neoclassical liberalism to Keynes...... In these years, it should really be called the "Yuan Yanqian School".

But he had only one way, and if he advocated a big government in the United States of America in 1921, this government should also carry out macroeconomic control, such as abolishing the Federal Reserve and making a real central bank to implement monetary tightening, such as raising the wages and benefits of all workers to expand domestic demand, such as nationalizing key enterprises and sectors......

End of book! OR A BAD ENDING.

Even if the big capitalists and politicians in the United States suddenly have a conscience and brains, they will not only punish him, but will obey him...... Our Master Yuan is not willing to do it, and he is not really an international capitalist fighter.

"Hahaha......" Yuan Yanqian laughed and spread her hands, "Mr. Baker, don't say that I can't do it, even if I have a way, I won't say it." I don't want to be a disgusted Kassandra! ”

Kassandra was the princess of Troy, who was originally a sacrifice of Apollo and thus gained the power of prophecy. But she resisted the day of the god of Japan, so the sun could not let her sun god curse her prophecy would not be believed.

I have to say that Chinese is too broad and profound.

"Hmm...... Where did I go? ”

Huang Zongyi reminded: "Uncle, you said that it has been fifteen years. ”

"yes, fifteen years." Yuan Yanqian turned his head to his nephew and smiled slightly, "Fifteen years later, you are not yet forty......

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Thanks to @ not by the 10,000-point reward of Brother Destiny 1, I will strive to add a little more this year.