Fighting is still going on along the Kashmir border, and both sides are deploying troops, but at the United Nations headquarters, ceasefire talks have not ended.

It can be said that this is a very strange situation.

Although both sides are actively launching an offensive or preparing for an attack, neither side has given a clear answer on the question of whether to negotiate an armistice or whether to settle the dispute through negotiations, and it seems that both sides feel that negotiations will begin at some point.

When?

When a decisive victory is achieved.

Of course, at least that's what the Pakistani authorities think.

As mentioned earlier, the Pakistani authorities have always believed that India will sit down and negotiate as long as a decisive victory can be achieved.

What about the Indian authorities?

With the situation at the time, India really needed a victory.

Why?

Only by proving that it still has the ability to continue fighting, and only by proving that it still has the ability to win, will it be possible for India to receive assistance from the United States and Japan.

The point is that the causal relationship between the two events is clearly reversed.

The Indian army has lost most of its main battle equipment, what to use to achieve victory?

Fight a defensive war?

It's not impossible, but the odds of winning are slim.

It can be seen that if India wants to win, it must first obtain assistance from the outside world.

From this point of view, the Indian authorities may not be preparing for victory, but waiting.

What are you waiting for?

Aid, of course.

In fact, judging from the situation at that time, even without any intelligence support, it can be inferred that India has achieved certain diplomatic achievements.

Or rather, India has received the promise of a certain major power that it is about to receive assistance.

Why?

Without foreign aid, even if it is not clear enough, it is impossible for the Indian authorities to drag on the negotiations.

If you drag it out, you will only suffer more serious defeats.

Obviously, it is much better to negotiate early than to negotiate after suffering a crushing defeat.

Especially after the Battle of Bertankot, the Indian authorities had no reason to drag it out.

To put it bluntly, the loss of Kashmir is a foregone conclusion.

In the event of another crushing defeat, the Indian prime minister will inevitably step down.

When the time comes, no matter who comes to power, the first thing to do is to negotiate an armistice with Pakistan and then swallow the bitter fruit of defeat.

Since the outcome is immutable, who bears it, and what does it make difference?

Taken together, it is not difficult to deduce that the Indian authorities must have received the promises and that the assistance provided by some major power will soon arrive.

The question is, what is the nature of assistance?

On the 55th day of the war, a large convoy of convoys arrived in Mumbai.

The ships in this fleet are all from the United States and Japan, but some are flown under the flags of third countries.

However, it was not American and Japanese equipment that was sent, but all Russian-made equipment, the most important of which were hundreds of T-90 main battle tanks.

Many of these tanks have not even erased the signs of the Russian army!

Obviously, this is second-hand goods from the Russian army.

Of course, before being delivered to the Indian army, these tanks have undergone necessary modifications, such as the removal of some sensitive equipment related to Russian military secrets.

How did these tanks come about?

Apparently not the assistance provided by Russia.

You know, in the Russian army, the T-90 is still the main force.

Even if Russia intends to aid India, it will provide the T-72 instead of the better T-90, not to mention the active equipment from the Russian army.

In fact, just after the flotilla arrived in Mumbai, the Russian authorities issued a statement declaring that they had not provided any military assistance to India.

What is that?

Arms trade.

The point is that it is not India that buys these tanks, but South Africa.

It's just that it's Japan that pays for it.

According to information disclosed after the war, Japan purchased 500 main battle tanks from Russia at that time, through South Africa, for about $2 billion.

South Africa didn't do anything, so it took a 10 percent fee.

The tanks were then loaded onto ro-ro freighters supplied by the United States and Japan.

500 tanks, enough to arm 4 fully armored brigades.

In addition, there are hundreds of self-propelled howitzers, as well as about 600 infantry fighting vehicles.

With these main battle equipment, it is enough to arm 10 brigades.

Obviously, the Indian authorities are waiting for this batch of aid.

It is a pity that the Indian army did not use this equipment in the right place.

Why?

With the situation on the battlefield at that time, in the Amritsar direction, even if the strength of 10 brigades is increased, the Indian army may not be able to turn the tide.

The point is that on the opposite side of the battlefield, the Pakistani army has at least 6 armored brigades.

Pakistan could also deploy four to six armoured brigades to deploy at least 1,200 main battle tanks in the direction if needed.

What about the Indian army?

In addition to the assistance just received, there are no main battle tanks that can be used.

Of course, it's not that there isn't, but that there is no way to use it.

The remaining main battle tanks of the Indian army are all placed in the northeast region, and there are only more than 300 in total, barely allowing the five armored brigades to remain fully formed.

Take 500 tanks against Pakistan's 1200?

Obviously, no matter how much the Indian army can fight, it will definitely lose.

It can be seen that in Amritsar, it is impossible for the Indian army to win.

So how to fight?

Quite simply, open a new front.

In order to launch a large-scale offensive in the direction of Amritsar, the Pakistani army has been adjusting its troop deployment, and almost all of the main armored forces have been sent to the northern front.

On the southern front, the strength of the Pakistani army is not very strong.

At that time, there was only one armored brigade in the Pakistani army guarding Karachi, and it was equipped with "Khalid", and the number was less than 100.

It can be seen that if India had put its forces on the southern front, it would certainly be very different.

According to information disclosed later, the US Army conducted a deduction.

If the Indian army hits Karachi with its forces, and the aviation forces are not too small to seize air supremacy, then the Indian army is expected to take Karachi within 10 days.

Obviously, this is an unacceptable outcome for Pakistan.

As long as the Indian army can take Karachi, it can use Karachi to negotiate with Pakistan, and maybe force Pakistan to withdraw its troops from Kashmir.

At least Pakistan can be exchanged for Jammu.

Of course, the premise is that Karachi must be defeated.

Unfortunately, the Indian army did not have the will to attack Karachi.

Judging by the situation at that time, it was clear that the Indian army did not have confidence in seizing air supremacy, and therefore did not believe in being able to advance ground forces to Karachi.

Karachi is more than 100 kilometers from the border.

Without air supremacy, the armored forces would have suffered a fatal blow on the way forward.

In addition, it is also related to a strategic concern of the Indian authorities.

What are the concerns?

Can it hold New Delhi.

According to the judgment of the Indian authorities, if the Indian army attacks Karachi, the Pakistani army will storm New Delhi, and the Indian army may not be able to hold New Delhi!