Natural disasters are coincidental, but civil strife is orchestrated.

After the establishment of the Nationalist Government in Guangzhou, on July 18, Shi Yousan raised troops against Chang Kaishen and Zhang Xueliang.

On July 21, the Nationalist Government of Guangzhou promulgated the Northern Expedition against Chiang.

On 22 July, Chen Youren, foreign minister of the Guangzhou Nationalist Government, made a secret visit to Japan and met with Japanese Foreign Minister Kishigero Bihara several times, expressing his willingness to exchange the rights and interests of Northeast China for Japan's support, but received no response. Chen Youren then met with the Soviet ambassador to Japan to seek support, but was also refused.

On August 5, Yan Xishan returned to Shanxi on a Japanese military plane to resume his administration.

At the end of August, Feng Yuxiang turned against Lei Zhongtian and Jiang in the old Gansu department, and once controlled the military and government of Gansu.

On September 1, the Guangzhou Nationalist Government carried out a general mobilization and appointed Yan Xishan, Feng Yuxiang, Han Fuyu, Zou Lu and others as members of the Northern Military and Political Commission.

On September 2, the Nationalist Government of Guangzhou officially sent troops.

On September 13, the Guangdong-Guizhou coalition army attacked Hunan in five directions.

On September 18, the Japanese Kwantung Army moved.

Chang Kaishen didn't even dare to suppress the "bandits", and hurriedly transferred back to the troops to deal with the anti-Chiang coalition forces. Zhang Xueliang also made people keep a close eye on the northwest and north China, and they didn't dare to slack off in the slightest, how could they have the energy to deal with the Japanese?

If everything is a coincidence, it is too much of a coincidence.

……

Peiping.

Zhou Hexuan came to Zhang Xueliang's mansion angrily and asked in front of Yu Fengzhi: "Sixth marshal, why haven't you mobilized the elite to defend the Northeast?" ”

Zhang Xueliang was stunned, waved his hand to his wife, and said, "Sister Yu, you avoid it first, I will talk to Mingcheng about important matters." ”

Yu Fengzhi nodded and smiled at Zhou Hexuan, and said, "You two talk slowly." ”

After Feng Zhi left, Zhang Xueliang said: "Yan Baichuan has returned to Shanxi, and Feng Huanzhang is constantly stirring up trouble, and now the armies in North China and Northwest China are unstable, and they may rebel in tandem at any time." Where do I dare to tamper with the army? ”

"Then the Japanese will not be guarded?" Zhou Hexuan said, "The Japanese have planned a big conspiracy in the Northeast, which is already known to everyone in Sima Zhao's heart, don't tell me that you don't know!" ”

"Of course I know, but that's the Japanese military department's own initiative." Zhang Xueliang looked confident.

The situation has developed to the point where Chang Kaishen, Zhang Xueliang, and Yan Xishan all know that the Japanese will do it, and even Chinese and Japanese newspapers have relevant news.

As early as July, He Yaozu, who was aware of the conspiracy of the Japanese, sent a secret telegram to the Nationalist Government in Nanjing: "The Japanese Military Officers' Council has decided to set up a standing division in South Manchuria, which is a great obstacle to China's sovereignty, that is, a great danger to the territorial integrity...... Check that the Japanese government's policy toward Manchurianism has recently changed...... As Governor Ugaki officially stated, the original rule of Xianman was a dual system, but now it has been changed to a unitary system......"

Zhang Xueliang took out a confidential document, handed it to Zhou Hexuan and said, "Be honest and don't worry, you take a look at this first." ”

Zhou Hexuan opened the document and read it carefully, but it was information sent back from Japan by a spy in Feng, and the content of the intelligence clearly stated: The Japanese Kwantung Army is ready to start at the end of September. However, the Kwantung Army's conspiracy had been revealed, and the Japanese government was deeply outraged by it, and Foreign Minister Bihara questioned War Minister Minamijiro about it.

After Zhou Hexuan finished reading the intelligence documents, Zhang Xueliang said: "Mingcheng, your judgment of the Northeast is very accurate. But we need not worry, the Japanese cabinet is against the military department's sending troops, and they will restrain the bad behavior of the Kwantung Army. Moreover, the conspiracy of the Kwantung Army, which had been planned for a long time, had been completely exposed, and in this case, they could only nullify the plan. ”

Zhou Hexuan instantly figured out why Lao Chiang suppressed the anti-Japanese movement in the country, and why he secretly telegraphed Zhang Xueliang not to provoke the Japanese side.

It turned out that both Chang Kaishen and Zhang Xueliang were aware of the conspiracy of the Japanese Kwantung Army, and they also knew that the Japanese cabinet was resolutely opposed to the plan of the military department. Therefore, they pinned their hopes on the Japanese cabinet, believing that the cabinet could restrain the Kwantung Army's self-assertions, and what the Northeast Army needed to do was to tolerate and tolerate again and again, and resolutely not give the Kwantung Army an excuse to send troops.

Zhou Hexuan smiled bitterly: "Sixth Marshal, do you really think that the Japanese cabinet can restrain the Kwantung Army?" ”

Zhang Xueliang said with great certainty: "This is natural, Japan is different from China, they are a unified government with a solid regime. Since the Japanese cabinet was opposed to the expansion of force, how could the Kwantung Army succeed? ”

"The Japanese civilian officials are against it, but the generals have long wanted to fight," Zhou Hexuan exclaimed, "Although the Kwantung Army's plan to start at the end of September has been exposed, they will definitely not invalidate the plan, but may act in advance, and the date of the operation is probably in mid-September!" ”

"Mingcheng, you're thinking too much," Zhang Xueliang explained comfortingly, "In the past year, I have stepped up my intelligence work in Japan. The Japanese Cabinet and the War Department have opposing views, and the War Department wants to expand in the Northeast, but it has been denied and suppressed by the Cabinet. We must cooperate with the Japanese Cabinet and try to tolerate it as much as possible, so as not to give the Japanese Kwantung Army an excuse to send troops. In the event of a violent reaction, it is likely that the Japanese cabinet will not be able to suppress the military. At this time, it was an eventful season, and natural disasters and civil strife were frequent, so even if you wanted to fight the Japanese, you had to get through the difficulties in front of you first. ”

Zhou Hexuan glared at Zhang Xueliang with cold eyes, and asked: "In other words, if the Japanese Kwantung Army attacks Shenyang, will you choose not to resist?" ”

"The Kwantung Army is not so bold, at most it is provocative on the South Manchurian Line," Zhang Xueliang said confidently, "Even if the Kwantung Army really attacks Shenyang, we can contact the Japanese Cabinet and the League of Nations and order it to withdraw immediately to avoid further deterioration of the situation." ”

Zhou Hexuan asked: "What if the Japanese Kwantung Army did not listen to the orders of the Japanese cabinet after capturing Shenyang, and continued to attack and occupy the entire Northeast?" ”

Zhang Xueliang said: "It is impossible, the Japanese cabinet and the League of Nations will not allow the Kwantung Army to come nonsense. ”

"You've decided?" Zhou Hexuan asked disappointedly.

Zhang Xueliang nodded and said: "It's decided, and this is the only way to solve the problem." ”

"Then you just wait to become a sinner in China, farewell!" Zhou Hexuan brushed his sleeves away, he wanted to go to the Northeast in person.

Zhang Xueliang's old mistake has been made again, and his character has never changed. During the "Middle Road Incident", Zhang Xueliang pinned his hopes on the civil strife in the Soviet Union and did not dare to fight a large-scale war; As for the "September 18 Incident" that was about to break out, Zhang Xueliang pinned his hopes on the Japanese cabinet and the League of Nations, wanting to wait for the Kwantung Army to withdraw its troops on its own.

Iron still needs to be hard, how can you wait for the other party to make a mistake?

It is true that the Japanese cabinet opposes the Kwantung Army's sending troops, but their interests are the same on the Manchurian and Mongolian issues. As long as the Kwantung Army creates a fait accompli, then the cabinet must compromise - historically, after the outbreak of the September 18 Incident, the Japanese cabinet strongly opposed this, and indeed urged the Kwantung Army to withdraw its troops as soon as Zhang Xueliang expected.

But what is the result?

In October, the Japanese young Zhuang faction military officers staged a coup d'état, and although the coup ended in failure, it frightened the Japanese prime minister. In order to prolong the life of the cabinet, the Japanese prime minister had to begin to coordinate military-political relations and, to a certain extent, support the Kwantung Army's invasion of Tohoku.

Not satisfied with this, the War Ministry finally forced the Japanese cabinet to resign en masse in December, allowing them to implement their expansion plans more brazenly.

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