That's true, but it depends on the perspective.

"Fourth brother, don't tell me, just rely on a few of us, to put it more directly, with my personal relationship with Crown Prince Mohammed, I can turn the conflict into a jade silk."

"You're thinking too much."

Wang Dong was very puzzled and looked at Yunlong incomprehensibly.

"The civil war in Iraq will continue for some time, even years, and the chances of it ending in a few months are very slim, and even if it is, it doesn't matter."

"What do you mean?"

"The whole world is watching this war, but what about after the war is over?"

Wang Dong frowned, seriously thinking about the question raised by Yunlong.

"Besides, do you think Crown Prince Mohammed wants the Iraqi civil war to last for several years?" Yunlong smiled faintly and said, "That's right, Saudi Arabia is an oil producer, and it is the world's largest oil exporter, and it will definitely benefit from the rise in oil prices." However, Iran is also an oil exporter, not much less than Saudi Arabia, and can also benefit from the rise in oil prices, and the actual benefits are far greater than Saudi Arabia's. ”

"How is that possible?"

"Marginal effects of economic development."

Wang Dong was slightly stunned, looking very puzzled.

"When a country's economy develops to a certain level, the growth rate decreases, and the input-output ratio, that is, the input reporting, also decreases simultaneously. For example, when the main factors are equal, the economic growth rate in the United States may be only three percentage points, while in China it can reach six percentage points. Although Saudi Arabia's economy is not as developed, it is above Iran, so Iran can benefit more from higher oil prices. When it reaches a certain tipping point, the advantages that Saudi Arabia now has are probably not worth mentioning. ”

Wang Dong didn't say anything, he needed a little time to understand what Yunlong said.

"By the same token, if oil prices had been hovering low, Iran would have suffered more than Saudi Arabia. To put it simply, because the cost of extracting oil is the lowest in the world, the price of oil has fallen from $140 to $45, which is just a little less oil revenue for Saudi Arabia, and there is no problem of loss. The cost of extracting oil in Iran is much higher, so when oil prices are too low, oil revenues are less. Besides, Iran has 60 million people, while Saudi Arabia has only 20 million, so Iran needs to spend more resources on infrastructure construction, which means more primitive accumulation. When international relations are taken into account, the impact of oil price fluctuations on Iran is even more obvious. ”

"You're saying the Saudi royal family doesn't want oil prices to go up?"

Yunlong nodded and said: "In order to solve some domestic problems, Saudi Arabia definitely wants oil prices to rise and increase oil revenues, but in order to suppress Iran, it definitely does not want oil prices to remain high." In fact, this is also the key to ending the civil war in Iraq in the near future. ”

Wang Dong nodded slightly, indicating that he understood what Yunlong meant.

You must know that not only Crown Prince Mohammed, but the entire Saudi royal family, has always regarded Iran across the Persian Gulf as the number one enemy.

"Actually, from a different angle, it is easier to see Saudi Arabia's position clearly."

"What angle?"

"Stand a little higher." Yunlong smiled and lit the third cigarette before saying, "After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States hijacked oil with dollars and became the actual controller of the international oil market, and the most significant result was to send the Soviet Union to the grave by lowering oil prices, and without a single soldier, it killed its biggest competitor after World War II, and the United States became the world's only superpower." ”

Wang Dong didn't say anything, waiting for Yunlong to continue.

"In the past few decades, the United States has been calling the tide in the international oil market through the financial hegemony established by the dollar. The question is, are oil-exporting countries like Saudi Arabia benefiting from this? The two Gulf Wars, the ensuing war on terror, the movement that spilled over the entire Arab world, the Islamic State that took advantage of the situation, and the financial giants of the United States sat on the petrodollar, while the Middle Eastern countries were in dire straits. Although Saudi Arabia has stabilized, the domestic situation is not peaceful at all. The war in Yemen, the civil war in Libya, the unrest in Egypt, and Syria are all consuming the wealth that Saudi Arabia has built up over decades. Who gets the benefits? Apparently the same financial oligarchs who printed dollars, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries have been bleeding. ”

"In that case, why is Saudi Arabia pursuing a pro-American policy?" Luo Qing couldn't help but ask.

"It's not going to happen overnight."

Luo Qing wanted to say something, but he couldn't help but speak.

"In fact, the Saudi royal family has seen through it a long time ago, otherwise Mohammed, who is in his thirties, would not have become the crown prince. No matter what the outcome of the Iraqi civil war is, no matter how much oil prices have risen, it is the United States, not Saudi Arabia, that controls all this, and it is the United States that benefits the most. Looking at the longer term, for example, in 20 years, when oil prices rise sharply, Saudi Arabia will not only not benefit, but will suffer unbearable losses. ”

"Isn't it good to have more oil revenues?" Wang Haotian also asked.

Yunlong smiled faintly and said, "At present, it seems that oil is an irreplaceable energy source, what about twenty years from now?" When the price of oil exceeds a certain price, such as US$80 per barrel, major energy consumers, such as Huaxia, invest heavily in finding and developing alternative energy sources, such as controlled fusion power plants. If one day in the future, an energy-consuming country like China makes a breakthrough, oil will become worthless. Even if that day doesn't come until a long time later, Huaxia will work other aspects. The United States has huge reserves of shale oil, and Huaxia also has combustible ice, and Huaxia's combustible ice mining technology is unique in the world, and it is expected to be commercialized within ten years. ”

"In other words, rising oil prices will force Huaxia to find alternative energy sources."

Yunlong nodded and said, "As long as a breakthrough is made in any key field, the status of oil will be reduced, and it will no longer be the main energy source." Therefore, from a long-term perspective, only if oil prices are relatively low, Saudi Arabia can continue to earn oil revenues to sustain the national economy and people's livelihood. ”

"A trickle of water flows." Luo Qing underestimated.

Yunlong smiled and said, "That's right, that's pretty much what it means." ”

"The problem is, it's not a long-term solution."

"So Crown Prince Mohammed is pushing forward the economic restructuring, allowing Saudi Arabia to buy into industrialization, and gradually reducing its dependence on oil revenues. Although Saudi Arabia is only a small country of more than 20 million people, it will certainly encounter challenges in the economic transformation and will take enough time. Optimistic estimates, at least twenty years. In order to ensure the continuity of the policy, King Salman put his young son on the throne of the crown prince, and he received the support of the royal family. ”

"Even so, the crown prince may not listen to our advice."

"The crown prince does not value us people, but our backers."