Chapter 495: The Way to Go
Iran's biggest bargaining chip is oil and gas.
Last year, Iran was China's fourth largest oil supplier and second largest natural gas supplier, and 11 percent of China's oil imports and 28 percent of China's natural gas imports were supplied by Iran.
In addition, Iran is also a major investment destination for China.
By the time the Iraqi civil war broke out, Huaxia had invested more than $150 billion in Iran.
In fact, it all starts with the "Iran nuclear deal" that year, that is, after Iran pledged not to research, manufacture and pursue nuclear weapons, the international community will gradually lift sanctions against Iran within five years, and last year happened to be the fifth year that the agreement was signed and came into effect.
The question is, how long can this continue?
Huaxia is indeed the world's number one energy importer, but Huaxia has been looking for alternative energy sources and trying to reduce its dependence on imported energy.
In the short term, Huaxia's progress in the field of combustible ice will have a direct impact on natural gas prices.
You know, the first combustible ice mining platform for commercial development has been put into operation in the South China Sea, and the results will be available within three years.
What is the result?
Of course, there is no value in large-scale commercial exploitation.
If there is, then five years at the earliest, ten years at the latest, it is very likely that China will change from an importer of natural gas to an exporter of natural gas.
What is this concept?
Only in China's territorial waters and exclusive economic zone, the total reserves of combustible ice that have been proven and have extraction value exceed the total reserves of natural gas in the world.
In addition, imported natural gas accounts for 20 percent of China's energy imports.
Because it is already a pure importer of natural gas, the proportion of natural gas in China's energy structure is not large, for example, natural gas is rarely used to generate electricity.
You know, in Western countries, especially in some environmentally conscious European countries, natural gas is mainly used to generate electricity.
As long as combustible ice is commercially mined and the cost of extraction can be controlled within a reasonable range, the proportion of methane that replaces natural gas in China's energy mix will certainly increase significantly, thereby reducing the demand for other energy sources, that is, reducing the demand for imports.
It is conservatively estimated that only one point can reduce the scale of China's imported energy by three percent!
Who is the most unlucky?
Obviously, Russia, Iran and Qatar, because these three countries are the main exporters of China's natural gas imports and the world's three largest gas exporters.
When the time comes, Huaxia will even become a competitor to these three countries in the international natural gas market.
Comparatively speaking, oil-based energy exporters such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Oman have been less affected.
Quite simply, these countries do not have a lot of natural gas, and they mainly rely on oil.
Although combustible ice is a clean energy source with bright development and great commercial value, it is unlikely to replace oil in the short term.
Don't forget, oil is not only a fuel, it's also a chemical raw material.
What's more, most cars burn oil, not natural gas.
In addition, in terms of extraction costs, combustible ice is difficult to lower than oil in the short term, and the cost of oil extraction in Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia is the lowest in the world.
Iran, that's miserable.
Just by losing China's natural gas market, Iran loses more than $10 billion a year, and at the current market price, it even reaches $30 billion.
Of course, that's not all.
According to Huaxia's latest national energy strategic plan, nearly 60 nuclear power plants will be built by 2045, and the 30 nuclear power plants that have been approved have a total of 120 units, and all of them are fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, with a total planned installed capacity of 400,000 megawatts.
What is this concept?
That's almost the total installed capacity of 20 Three Gorges hydropower stations!
What's more, nuclear power plants are almost immune to the weather and are able to output electricity steadily, while hydropower plants can generate seasonal fluctuations in their capacity.
The vigorous development of nuclear power plants is also aimed at reducing dependence on imported energy.
Of course, it is also related to the development of clean energy, that is, Huaxia's current nuclear power plan, which is mainly used to replace polluting thermal power.
It's just that when another 30 nuclear power plants are built, it will be different.
According to the announcement issued by the Huaxia authorities, starting from 2035, the sixth-generation reactors will be the mainstay.
Why the sixth generation, the fifth generation?
Fifth-generation reactors are also available, but they are kept in reserve, i.e., they will be considered for construction after problems arise in the development of sixth-generation reactors.
This sixth-generation reactor has a lot of origins.
Although Huaxia officials have not announced the relevant technology of the sixth-generation nuclear power plant, and have not even mentioned what type of reactor it will use, the outside world has always believed that it is likely to be a fusion reactor, at least an enhanced fission reactor that integrates controlled fusion technology.
If this is the case, it means that the first nuclear reactor with controlled fusion technology will be available around 2040.
So, is this possible?
No one can say for sure, and no one dares to pack tickets.
Only one thing is certain, if the controlled fusion technology can be commercialized and the fusion nuclear energy can benefit all mankind, then the first breakthrough must be Huaxia.
Why?
In today's world, the country that pays the most attention to and is most willing to invest in the field of controlled fusion technology is Huaxia, and it can even be said that only Huaxia.
You know, controlled fusion technology is the only way for Huaxia to get rid of energy imports.
Neither combustible ice nor fifth-generation fission reactors with a single reactor power of 8 million kilowatts can completely replace fossil fuels.
What's more, as long as China's economy continues to grow rapidly, the demand for energy will rise.
To put it mildly, the combustible ice mined in the South China Sea cannot even meet the annual energy demand, so it is still highly dependent on imported energy.
In fact, it is not a question of imported energy, but of the energy itself.
Although new oil fields are discovered every year, and many new energy sources are emerging, such as shale oil and combustible ice, these fossil energy sources are limited, and even the raw material for fission reactors, that is, uranium ore, has limited reserves that will be depleted in the next few decades to centuries.
Only hydrogen is infinite.
It can be seen that only controlled fusion technology can completely solve the energy problem, at least to ensure that there will be no energy problems in the next tens of thousands of years, or even longer.
For Huaxia, controlled fusion technology is the only way to reach the pinnacle.
How long until 2040?
It's only been 20 years!