Chapter 413: Mystery
When they came to the palace, Saleh did not take Wang Dong and them directly to meet the crown prince, but took them to the meeting room first.
So outward?
Wang Dong was a little puzzled, but didn't ask much.
After all, it was the middle of the night, and Crown Prince Mohammed might be in the middle of the night with a certain princess and break in directly, which was obviously not in accordance with the rules.
When Saleh went out, Yunlong went over and closed the door.
When he walked back, he had already taken out his mobile phone, opened a website, and then handed the mobile phone to Wang Dong and asked Wang Dong to take a closer look.
The online trading platform of the London Crude Oil Futures Exchange, however, has closed, showing yesterday's information.
Wang Dong quickly looked at it and gave the phone to Luo Qing.
"Do you know why peace talks between the warring parties are being promoted?"
Wang Dong sighed and reached out to touch the pocket of his coat.
Yun Long shook his head with a smile, took out a cigarette and handed it to Wang Dong.
There is nothing to say, before the outbreak of the Iraqi civil war, the price of Brent crude oil futures in London was less than $50, and now it has risen to $120.
Just yesterday, the biggest increase in more than two months was created, reaching 9.4 percent.
Why?
Quite simply, the Razak regime's resounding victory at Nasiriyah has made the Iraqi civil war a blur, at least not in the short term.
Moreover, as the rebel army turns from prosperity to decline, the probability of Iran sending troops to the war has greatly increased.
Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran, the world's major oil exporters, will be embroiled in the war.
Regardless of how this civil war ends, it will certainly continue for some time.
As the war continues, it is strange that oil prices are not rising.
The main beneficiaries of the rise in oil prices are not the oil-producing countries that have been or may be involved in the war, but those who have stayed out of the way.
For example, Nigeria, Venezuela, Indonesia, Brunei, etc.
It's just that no country can compare with Russia and the United States.
After all, Russia has always been a major oil exporter, and energy exports, mainly oil and gas, account for two-thirds of Russia's foreign exchange earnings, even if Russia's economy is completely dominated by oil prices, it is not an exaggeration to say that Russia's economy is completely dominated by oil prices.
What about the United States?
Thanks to the shale oil industry, the United States is not only the world's leading oil producer, but also became a net exporter of oil more than a decade ago.
Looking more broadly, the United States is the biggest beneficiary.
Quite simply, the shale oil industry is closely related to oil prices.
When the international oil price is around $45 per barrel, the shale oil industry is profitable.
It is precisely because of this that since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, international oil prices have fallen all the way, and finally stabilized at around $45.
Over the years, it has not been OPEC led by Saudi Arabia that has controlled international oil prices, but the United States.
The solution is also very simple: if the price of oil is below $45 per barrel, the United States will close some oil fields, reduce the scale of shale oil extraction, and increase oil prices by reducing production; Conversely, it will force international oil prices down by increasing shale oil production.
Because it is not only the world's largest oil consumer, but also the third largest oil producer, and many oil-producing countries use the US dollar as their settlement currency, the United States has far more influence on international oil prices than other countries, even more than the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, that is, OPEC.
In previous years, especially after the outbreak of the civil war in Ukraine, the United States has been pushing down oil prices in order to suppress Russia.
According to estimates by the World Bank and other international institutions, for every $10 reduction in oil prices, Russia's annual energy export revenues will be reduced by $6 billion.
You know, that's pure income.
If employment, tax revenues, consumption, etc. are taken into account, Russia's real losses will at least double.
This is exactly what happened, oil prices remained low for more than a decade, and the Russian economy shrank dramatically, becoming negligible a few years ago!
Russia's population is about one-third that of the United States, and its GDP is less than five percent of that of the United States.
Of course, the United States can still benefit from higher international oil prices.
Among other things, the shale oil industry alone could create hundreds of thousands of jobs in the United States and raise tens of billions of dollars in tax revenue for the U.S. federal government every year.
Since it is completely self-sufficient, the burden of rising oil prices can be absorbed in the United States, and the negative impact on the American economy is not serious.
To put it simply, rising oil prices will exacerbate inflation, and the domestic demand market from the shale oil industry acts as a hedge.
It is certainly the oil importing countries led by China that have suffered losses because of the rise in international oil prices.
Last year, China imported more than 700 million tons of oil, accounting for 40 percent of the world's total oil exports, and the total expenditure on imported oil was as high as 250 billion US dollars!
That's still an average annual oil price of less than $50 a barrel.
When the price of oil rises to $120, it will cost $600 billion to import 700 million tons of oil.
An additional $350 billion is a net loss.
You must know that China's net foreign exchange income last year was about 200 billion US dollars, and if it spends an additional 350 billion yuan on oil imports, it will have to spend 150 billion US dollars on foreign exchange settlement for the whole year.
This means that China's economic growth rate will fall by at least four percentage points.
In fact, after the outbreak of the civil war in Iraq, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have lowered their forecasts for China's economic growth.
In a recent assessment, the World Bank predicted that China's economic growth would be less than 3 percent this year.
The IMF's forecast is slightly more optimistic, but only 3.5 percent.
In other words, the two major international financial institutions are optimistic about China's economy.
What's going on?
Over the past few decades, especially in this century, China has been the locomotive of global economic growth, and has maintained a strong growth momentum for more than 40 years.
Even if it is affected by the rise in oil prices, it is unlikely that it will fall to the end.
What's more, before the global financial crisis, the international oil price reached a sky-high price of $140 per barrel, and China's economy is still thriving.
If something goes wrong, there will be demons.
Thinking of this, Wang Dong looked at Yunlong.
"Got it?" Yunlong had already finished smoking a cigarette, but instead of extinguishing the cigarette butt, he connected one. "After the outbreak of the civil war in Iraq, the United States was uncharacteristically out of the situation, and we felt that something was wrong. What happened over the next two months has proven our suspicions. ”
Wang Dong nodded and didn't say anything more.
It is obvious that the United States is making a strategic adjustment, no longer focusing on Russia, but is targeting China and preparing to take China as a knife.
In fact, the signs of this appeared as early as two years ago.
It is a pity that the United States was single-handedly at that time, and now it is only looking in the right direction, because Russia is still expecting international oil prices to bottom out.
Making a fuss about oil prices is really ruthless!