"This, I would like to hear it in detail" Yu Peiran's tone was still blunt, he promised to fight a war that he would inevitably lose, and he was still not believed, of course he would not be polite.

I have to say that this study room of Beihongde is so magnificent that it has everything. At this moment, Qian Dingzhang walked to a blackboard and wrote with chalk

f=(bq-q)/b=p(b+1)-1/b

f = the ratio of the capital that should be placed in the bet

p = probability of winning

q = probability of failure

b = odds

After finishing writing, he looked at Yu Peiran with a smile: "Brother Yu, what do you think about this?" ”

"What is this?" Yu Peiran's pupils contracted suddenly, a simple formula actually didn't mean anything, but Yu Peiran, as a professional speculator, could instinctively feel the huge effect contained in this seemingly bland equation. He received a master's degree in applied mathematics from Oxford in England. After returning to China, he was influenced by his elders to enter the speculative market, and everything he learned came in handy, and he won many battles in the investment airport. Seeing his appearance, Bei Hongde and the others also began to stare at the blackboard.

Qian Dingzhang looked at Yu Peiran's appearance and sneered in his heart: "Count you as a living skeleton, this is the famous Kelly Formula, an equation that is known to senior gamblers in later generations, and is used to calculate the formula for maximizing the long-term growth rate of repetitive behavior with positive expected value of betting." In other words, it is through this formula that the best betting efficiency can be obtained, ignoring the order of winning and losing after betting, and only focusing on the result.

Seeing that Yu Peiran was still thinking, Qian Dingzhang decided to nod him, "Brother Yu, do you usually go to the racecourse?" ”

"Huh?" Yu Peiran, listening to him pull from the equation to the racecourse, was a little unable to react for a while, "Oh, oh, when I have time, I go back to touch my luck, but it seems that the gambling is not good." Seeing that Qian Dingzhang did have two brushes, his tone began to soften. When it comes to "bad luck", he also smiles in a rare self-deprecating way.

"Damn, don't laugh, you can shoot ghost movies without makeup" Qian Dingzhang said while complaining in his heart, "What if, Brother Yu goes to buy Ma Cai according to this equation?" ”

"Yes, yes, Brother Zhao, if you buy Ma Cai according to this, although you won't make a lot of money, you can guarantee that you won't lose, that is, you can ensure that your interests are maximized. Yu has eyes and doesn't know Mount Tai, please bear with me if I was offended just now. At that moment, he clenched his fists and bowed halfway, as if he remembered something, put his hands flat to his side, and bowed straight and straight at 90 degrees.

This can make Qian Dingzhang take a big jump, and he hurriedly wanted to help, but he thought that it was too late to do it, and Yu Peiran's gift had already become a big gift in his mouth, "Brother Zhao is really talented, Yu has eyes and doesn't know Taishan Taishan, I don't know that Brother Zhao teaches at that university, and he will come to the door to apologize for his sins and ask for advice after this incident." ”

Seeing the other party like this, Qian Dingzhang couldn't and could only bow to the ground and say that he didn't dare or not.

Pei Hongde laughed out loud when he saw it, "Two, two, stand up, are you worshipping heaven and earth or learning Oriental radish heads?"

Both of them had a look of ridicule on their faces when they heard this.

"It's just that, Brother Zhao, Yu found that this formula can only be applied to gambling betting at present, and it seems that there is still a bit of a distance to apply it to stocks."

"Hehehe, Brother Yu has good eyesight, this is the prototype formula, I have thought about the deformation algorithm in my spare time. The stock market is more than expected losses compared to casinos, so... Then he wrote another formula on the blackboard.

f =(bp - cq)/(bc)

c = net loss ratio.

"What does Brother Yu think?"

"Smack" Yu Peiran slapped his thigh, "I am really fortunate to see Brother Zhao today, so not only can it be directly applied to the stock market or futures, but also because it is simple, I can teach a few henchmen and let them each take care of their own stalls, as long as I don't need to worry about it within the scope of the formula, I can concentrate on formulating the overall situation." ”

"Dare to ask who Brother Zhao is under his tutelage and where he is currently teaching, and Yu will come to the door to ask for advice in the future" Obviously, there are only university professors who can play applied mathematics so well during this period. So Yu Peiran naturally came to this conclusion.

But Qian Dingzhang knew in his heart, "There are many, many trees planted on the university campus, and there are many people hanging on one of the trees, and this tree is called Gaoshu." At that time, that is, 70 years later, he was also one of the above, and an undergraduate student who failed a high mathematics course was able to fool the master of mathematics in this era, relying on the continuous progress of human beings in mathematics. Like the Kelly formula, it was almost 20 years later that Kelly of Bell Labs proposed it for the first time, and it is not a big problem to plagiarize it himself at this moment to scare people, after all, he has hung up the department, which makes him deduce this formula from beginning to end at a glance, so it is natural to show timidity.

Fortunately, this Yu Peiran has real talent and learning, and he writes the equation by himself and understands it with a little bit of dialing.

"Brother Yu is polite, Zhao is still an idler, and he doesn't dare to mislead people's children.

"Oh, that Yu boldly invited Mr. Zhao for the Yu family, as long as Mr. is willing to ask for a conditional position and treatment, let Mr. be."

"Hey, Brother Yu, you're not kind, Brother Zhao is talented, everyone knows it, why did you dig people" Pei Hongde hurriedly interrupted. At this moment, he knew that this Zhao Hao with a pair of small eyes was not a thing in the pool, not only well-informed, but also a talent among people.

"Yes, Yu is reckless, and I also asked Brother Zhao to give me a business card, after the matter, I will definitely visit Uncle Zhao in person."

"Boom" Everyone in the room let out a faint exclamation, this Yu Peiran looks like a zombie, and his personality is similar, although they are all in a small circle, but in addition to talking to that Rong fat man, he usually ignores everyone. Everyone understands people, and knows that this person is not unwilling to associate with others, but that the indifference brought out by the natural mother's womb always rejects people thousands of miles away. Of course, if you ask him to do things, they are handled properly, and after a long time, everyone will not care, first, he is also loyal, on the other hand, which Rong fat man is not eating and sleeping, but he is a real eight-sided exquisite character, and the two complement each other is also interesting.

But today, the living zombie was so polite to this Mr. Zhao, and even said that he would bring his uncle to visit, who is his uncle The famous Yu Qiaqing, who can eat both politics and business, and named the road after himself. It is very difficult for idle people to ask to see each other, so he might as well take it directly to the door. Something was wrong in everyone's eyes.

Feeling this pressure, Qian Dingzhang had no choice but to apologize, "I'm really sorry, Zhao has been away from Shanghai for a long time, he has just returned, and his family's residence has long been different, and now he is still living in a hotel." Brother Yu is ashamed of his love, and he is waiting for this matter. After the younger brother also settles down, he will definitely come to visit. ”

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The Kelly formula is quite useful, but ordinary people do not use it well, one is to engage in capital requirements, that is, gamblers must have sufficient initial funds and then make a reasonable position allocation before it can be effective, and secondly, the requirements for people's computing power are too high, and the nature of doing stocks can be done through computers, Texas Hold'em and 21 points are calculated by the brain. Ordinary people don't try it.

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Balzac once said, "The novel is the private history of the society of the times"

For example, let's talk about the rationality and sociality of the plot evolution in the lyrics, which is still "Jade Dragonfly", which has a branch plot, after the head of the family Jin Guisheng ran away, his wife Jin Zhang was in charge, and found that there were six wharves in Suzhou that belonged to the Jin family, and there were documents and deeds issued by the emperor as evidence.

But when Jin Guisheng was five years old, the Jin family was infighting, which led to the occupation of the dock by the so-called Viper Party, a small group formed by the collusion of some retired officials.

When Jin Guisheng was five years old and the Jin family lost the dock, Jin Zhang's father, Zhang Guoxun, the secretary of the ministry, gave Zhang Guoxun a gift to Zhang Guoxun when the Viper Party took over the wind and washed the dust for him.

Zhang himself was a clean official and was unwilling to accept it, but he had to accept it because of the difficulty on the scene.

And the Viper Party's move is tantamount to putting a layer of insurance on its own forcible seizure - pulling a heavenly official into the water and sitting on the ground to share the spoils.

Ten years later, Jin Guisheng and Jin Zhang got married. Zhang Guoxun also wants to get all the docks back to his son-in-law. But he also has concerns - he can't come forward, he must let Jin Guisheng come forward to ask for it, it is better to fight a lawsuit, and he will operate a little behind his back. The prefect of Suzhou is his protégé, and Jin Guisheng has documents in his hand, so he has to do everything in peace and stability regardless of whether he is on the stage or off the stage.

The prefect of Suzhou, here is pushing the boat along the river, directly judging in accordance with the normal procedures, and blocking the mouth of the Viper Party.

Jin Guisheng is a big family in Suzhou, his identity is sufficient, and he has real evidence in his hands, and it is not easy for the Viper Party to attack him on the surface.

If he himself does not come forward, it can be regarded as maintaining a tacit understanding on the table, and as for the income of the previous 10 years, it will not be recovered by the Viper Party, which will be regarded as a kind of compensation.

The Viper Party has power in the imperial court, and Zhang Guoxun also has it, and the entanglement of interests between the two sides is obtained through Jin Guisheng, and Zhang and Poison do not meet directly.

However, soon after the marriage, before he could implement this plan, Jin Guisheng immediately ran away from home.

At this moment, if Zhang Guoxun comes forward to ask for it in person, it is tantamount to openly tearing his face with the Viper Party, once the two sides start a war, Zhang Guoxun has become much less influential than before, even if the Suzhou prefect has the heart to help, but in the face of the Viper Party, he is afraid that he will not be able to protect himself.

So Zhang Guoxun refused his daughter's request to come forward, and his daughter Jin Zhang's character in the lyrics is a not-so-bad, but short-tempered and willful eldest lady, who got angry with her husband a few times after opening the book, and then tore off a lot of the beard of the new military secretary, and the latter didn't say much because of Zhang Guoxun's face. In this way, she has developed her arrogant arrogance.

Zhang Guoxun knew his daughter's temper, so he knew that he was reasonable, and Jin Zhang's retreated. But she can't die her personal maid Fang Lan, Fang Lan's character setting is extremely smart, a character with a super high IQ, dealing with all kinds of small scenes and small contradictions is invincible, and Jin Zhang's love is like a sister, everything is considered to maximize the interests of Jin Zhang's family, plus her husband was named a third-grade general, so such a maid began to swell, thinking that these retired officials of the Viper Party are not a big problem. It is recommended that the Kim Chang clan is not afraid to go to the front of the anus. At this moment, this Fang Lan is a typical smart and unwise character, smart means knowing how to fight and win, and wisdom is knowing whether to fight and what to fight. In other words, the wise Japanese staff officers of World War II, and the wise Ishihara Waner.

So, the eldest lady of the Jin Zhang family had a temper attack, and directly led people to storm the dock controlled by the Viper Party, killing people, and the Viper Party sought an opportunity to retaliate, and then the righteous servant Li Dai Taozhuang was beaten to death, which really angered Zhang Guoxun to come forward to find his protégé Suzhou Prefect to judge.

After reading it, Lala's miscellaneous plot introduction was written in 900 words, which involved multiple characters, each with their own position and interests.

As a result, there will be contradictions between each character's own interests and his own position, for example, Zhang Guoxun naturally loves his daughter and hopes to get the dock back, but he is old in officialdom and does not dare to offend the Viper Party in person, so he can only attack in a roundabout way.

There will be contradictions between characters and characters, such as Kim Zhang and Zhang Guoxun, so a series of small contradictions are intertwined and intertwined, driven by some special external coincidents, which affects the development of the whole story, from the beginning of the big deal, gradually out of control. In this series of conflicts, each person's character is further strengthened, and the relationship between the character and the plot becomes a relationship that constantly generates positive feedback. The more the plot progresses, the more obvious and plump the characters' personalities become.

So that when a book comes down, the audience closes their eyes, and several important people can stand in front of them alive, and their joys, sorrows, food, clothing, housing, and transportation are well-documented and reasonable. The characters created in this way are far more profound and credible than the hints brought by the name symbol of Long Aotian or Zhao Ritian.

In fact, it is very simple to summarize, u Jin Zhang's want to recapture the dock controlled by the Viper Party, Zhang Guoxun did not do it because he also had a share, Jin Zhang's personally went out to fight five lives, the Viper Party sought an opportunity to retaliate, the righteous servant Li Dai Taozhuang was beaten to death, Zhang Guoxun put on a big man's prestige to destroy the Viper Party.

The latter is a very typical online text structure, with a little perfunctory 2,000 or 20,000 words, and it can be focused on describing, how Zhang Guoxun is majestic, and how the Viper Party is finally served in a pot.

However, does this really look good? The former is considered a world love article according to the online article, and the book "Jade Dragonfly" may have been made by Wang Xijue when he attacked Shen Shixing, so it was available at the end of the Ming Dynasty.

But is this structure and logic from more than 300 years ago still very familiar and useful today? A series of skirmishes gradually converged, as the conflict of positions and interests was magnified to the point of almost uncontrollable. It may seem exaggerated, but when you think about it, every step is very reasonable, even if there is a violation of logic, it can only show the complexity of the world, not the confusion of logic.

This plot is mixed in the lyrics, I did the math, and I talked for about four hours from beginning to end.

And the focus of the performance is to sort out all kinds of intricate relationships, and there is not much to be involved in our so-called cool points.

Therefore, it is not for nothing that the words are half-dead today, it is indeed not exciting and cool enough.

At present, everyone is a consequentialist, and they like to see the good ending, but the details of the process are reasonable but are not valued.

Those who can understand the subtleties of the entanglement between officials and civilians in Jade Dragonfly are mostly people who have stepped into society and engaged in some more professional work, and a 18-year-old worker who worked on the Foxconn assembly line also knows that "officials protect each other and eat dogs", but it is difficult to say whether he can really understand the subtle joint twists and turns. It's not that I'm discriminating against Foxconn workers, it's that the social division of labor dictates that they can't really understand the subtlety here. What is done on paper is finally shallow, some things are reasonable, it is useless to just look at them, and it is impossible to fully understand them without personally getting involved in practice, and after understanding in turn, they will probably regret it. ”

As a final note, I think this statement is a bit of a stretch on average for my readers. I don't mean to despise wage earners, and I don't think it's worth despising them for not being able to understand some of the subtleties of bullet words. Because I am probably a character who should be looked down upon in the eyes of many people, I basically don't watch TV, I don't play Honor of Kings, and I don't watch live broadcasts, I don't understand any of these common entertainment methods. But I don't feel inferior to this, in my eyes, whether it's playing words, or the glory of kings, shouting microphones or something is a way to relax and entertain. On the premise of not violating the law, everyone is equal to each other, and there is no superiority.

Even to say something that offends people, a person's sense of superiority should not arise from his own consumption or consumption, and it should be his creation that can really make people proud.