Will Iran ignore, or dare to ignore, China's warnings?

The answer is clearly no.

Although Huaxia's way of issuing the warning was very tactful, no one dared to doubt Huaxia's determination to safeguard national interests, let alone Huaxia's methods.

To put it mildly, in recent years, which country that provoked China has a good end?

A few years ago, India and China faced off in the border area.

The result?

Although India retreated a few months later and withdrew its troops across the border, India's economic growth rate fell from 7 percent to 3 percent that year, and riots and unrest erupted across the country, as well as clashes with Pakistan in Kashmir.

In recent years, India's development has been going downhill.

You must know that before the confrontation with China, India has always been favored by Western countries, and some people even believe that India will replace China as the locomotive of global economic growth, become the fastest growing non-developed country, and become an emerging economic power on the entire Asian continent.

Some Indians are even optimistic that India will be able to surpass China by the middle of this century.

What now?

After several years of declining economic growth, not to mention India's future prospects, overseas investment in India has plummeted by 80%.

By the time the Iraqi civil war broke out, India's foreign exchange reserves had fallen to less than $500 billion, and India's foreign debt was as high as $1.6 trillion! What's worse is that 80 percent of India's external debt is denominated in US dollars. That is, as soon as the dollar enters a contraction phase, India's debt will collapse. From an economic point of view, India is bankrupt and unable to repay its foreign debt due in foreign currency.

Is there a future for a country that is about to go bankrupt?

In fact, the Iraqi civil war has had a greater impact on India than China.

Why?

India is also highly dependent on imported energy, especially oil.

India's oil self-sufficiency rate is not even as good as China's, with only 20 percent or 80 percent of its oil imported, and it has to be imported at market prices.

Why?

India is too small.

Huaxia has been using its influence to sign long-term agreements with major oil exporters in order to ensure the stability of energy import channels.

In fact, Japan is doing the same.

Although the price of a long-term agreement is not too low, generally higher than the average price of the previous year, when there is a large fluctuation in oil prices, especially when there is a sharp rise, the loss can be minimized and the oil can be purchased from the oil-exporting country at a more reasonable price.

What about India?

No.

Not to mention Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries, even another major oil exporter, that is, Russia, which has always maintained close relations with India, has not signed an agreement with India on the price. As for the United States, which has become an oil exporter and has been secretly supporting India all these years, it also did not sign an agreement price with India. To put it bluntly, India is not in a position to bargain with oil exporters.

The point is, the Indian market is too small.

Although India is already the third largest oil importer, the gap between China and Japan is still very large.

To put it more bluntly, oil-producing countries also need export markets.

Without the Chinese oil market, who can Saudi Arabia sell its oil to, or which country can buy all the oil produced by Saudi Arabia?

From this point of view, as long as international finance shifts from expansion to contraction, India's economy will collapse completely.

If India is like this, how much better can Iran be?

You know, India is the third largest economy in Asia, the largest non-developed country, and a huge market with a population of 1.4 billion.

India is no longer good, and the volume is large enough.

What about Iran?

With a population of less than 80 million, the land area is just over a million square kilometers, and all it has is oil and gas, and nothing else.

Of course, there are some minerals, but they are of little value.

From a purely economic point of view, Iran is far inferior to India.

From the perspective of the international division of labor, that is, from the perspective of trade, Iran is even less than India.

In any case, India has a lot of light industry, and there are enough cheap labor to get at least a piece of the pie in the international division of labor.

What Iran has is only energy.

It can be seen that Iran's economic structure, especially its trade structure, is extremely homogeneous, mainly relying on the export of oil and natural gas in exchange for other commodities.

How much capital does such Iran have to compete with China?

As mentioned at the beginning, if China no longer imports Iranian oil and gas, which country will be able to buy all the oil and gas produced in Iran?

No, not a single one!

The United States has long been a pure energy exporter, and even if it has been importing high-quality oil and exporting low-quality shale oil extracted, it will never import oil from Iran.

Don't forget, if the United States wants to buy it, it will also go to the United Kingdom to buy North Sea crude oil, or buy it in the Arab League countries.

Russia is an oil producer in the first place, and Russia's economy is too small.

What about Japan?

Japan does buy oil from Iran, but for political and diplomatic reasons, Japan has never regarded Iran as a major source of oil.

As long as there is a choice, Japan is more willing to buy oil from Saudi Arabia and other Arab League countries.

In fact, Japan mainly purchases oil from Kuwait.

In the aftermath of the Gulf War, Japan provided Kuwait with tens of billions of dollars in reconstruction funds and took control of most of Kuwait's oil fields.

European countries?

Needless to say, Britain is an oil-producing country. The Netherlands and Denmark are also oil producers, and even Norway is an oil producer.

Among European countries, France, Italy and Germany are the main dependents on imported oil.

Germany imports mainly energy from Russia, is not very dependent on Middle Eastern oil, and it also imports very little oil from Iran.

France has been vigorously developing nuclear energy and reducing energy imports as much as possible.

In fact, France's main sources of oil are several African countries that produce oil, because these countries have historical ties to France.

In fact, Italy is the only one that imports a large amount of oil from the Middle East.

Unfortunately, Italy's economy is not large, far less than that of France and Germany.

It can be seen that in terms of energy trade, it is not that China is dependent on Iran, but that Iran is dependent on China, that is, Iran must maintain China's market share.

Obviously, no matter how bold Iran is when it comes to China's core national interests, it must have some concerns.

What if there is Russian backing?

As long as the Iranian leader's head does not enter the water, he will lower his body at this time and respond to the peace initiative issued by China.