848 [Trade and War]
A telegram from Lao Jiang made Zhou Hexuan stop in Guangzhou - waiting for someone.
As a result, Zhou Hexuan could only write under the bombardment, and the last part of "Black Soil" was almost completed. waited until the beginning of May, and finally waited for Chen Guangfu, Xi Demao, Ren Sida and others.
Chen Guangfu, a banker known as the "Morgan of China", is currently a senior adviser to the Ministry of Finance and chairman of the wartime base trade committee (with the rank of lieutenant general).
Si Demao, a financier, member of the Equalization Fund Committee of the Ministry of Finance and Director of the Banking Bureau of China, was appointed to be based in Hong Kong and was responsible for maintaining the international exchange rate of fiat currency.
Ren Sida, a trader, is mainly engaged in the import and export trade of mineral products, and has a wide range of contacts in Europe and the United States.
The three were sent by Lao Chiang, naturally to seek a loan in the United States. Even if there was no Zhou Hexuan, they would have to go to the United States, but only a few months in advance.
Historically, Chang Kaishen was forced to be anxious by the shortage of funds, and constantly ordered Kong Xiangxi to go abroad to get money as soon as possible. Kong Xiangxi found Chen Guangfu, because Chen Guangfu had a deep friendship with the American capitalist Morgan and wanted to open a hole with his personal relationship.
Our Dean Kong Xiangxi did not have any plan for asking for help, and he did not even know the amount of help, but he opened his mouth and asked Chen Guangfu to seek at least $300 million to $400 million in loans.
Chen Guangfu wanted to scold his mother very much, borrowing a fart of 300 million US dollars, he didn't even have the confidence to borrow 3 million US dollars. So he was reluctant to make the trip due to illness, and was repeatedly urged by Lao Jiang and Lao Kong for several months before Chen Guangfu went to the United States.
At the beginning, the negotiations between Chen Guangfu and others were not smooth. However, with the fall of Guangzhou and Wuhan one after another, Roosevelt and the American capitalists panicked a little, feeling that they had to pull China along, otherwise China would be pushed by Japan and play a fart, so the loan contract was actually negotiated.
Now when Chen Guangfu was dragging his feet and refusing to leave, Kong Xiangxi said to him: "Guangfu, Zhou Mingcheng has a way to borrow money. He will be the special envoy for the negotiations, and you will be the deputy envoys for the negotiations, and the negotiations will definitely be successful. You don't have a plan in mind, you can ask him first, I believe Zhou Mingcheng must have a strategy. ”
Chen Guangfu thought to himself, anyway, when the sky falls, there is a tall man on top, so let's go...... Therefore, it started two or three months earlier than in history.
Zhou Hexuan went to the United States to ask for a loan just under the guise of it, he mainly went to get planes. Lao Jiang sent a telegram to him and asked him to wait, Zhou Hexuan thought he was waiting for a few diplomats, but when they met, they found that it was actually a group of people who played finance and trade to meet him.
Mom sells batches!
Everyone boarded a ship in Guangzhou and headed for the United States, and they had no clue about the loan, so they could only go to the deck every day to drink coffee and discuss.
It was a beautiful day with a sea breeze.
Chen Guangfu drank bitter coffee and said: "Mr. Zhou, you are an international expert, do you think the United States can really borrow money to aid China?" ”
Zhou Hexuan shook his head and said: "Impossible, the United States claims to strictly abide by neutrality and will not directly lend to China." Unless ......"
"Unless what?" Sid asked.
"Unless we change the way," Mr. Zhou said, "set up a trading company in the United States and seek private business loans from American companies through business cooperation." This bypassed the U.S. foreign policy of neutrality and gave Roosevelt room to maneuver. ”
Chen Guangfu clapped his hands and said, "This method is very good! ”
"Since it's a private commercial loan, it has to make it profitable for Americans," Sidmao said. Mr. Ren, you are an expert in international trade, what goods does the United States most urgently want from China? ”
"Tungsten ore, of course!"
Ren Sida immediately said: "Tungsten ore is a scarce resource in industry, and China is the world's largest supplier of tungsten ore. The world's first tungsten mine is in Jiangxi, and the world's second tungsten mine is in Guangdong, which is a huge advantage for China. Using the benefits of tungsten ore to lure the United States into the hub, the other side will most likely agree. ”
Zhou Hexuan is very familiar with China's modern history, and knows that the United States has five loans to China during the Anti-Japanese War, and the "tungsten ore loan" is only the third, and the first is the "tung oil loan".
Of course, Zhou Hexuan only knew this, and he did not know the details of the five loans. After all, in addition to professional papers, history books are only mentioned in passing at most, and readers will not be full and have nothing to do to study the details.
The five U.S. borrowings to China are: tung oil borrowing, Huaxi borrowing, tungsten sand borrowing, metal borrowing, and fiscal borrowing.
As the name suggests, the first three loans are related to tung oil, tin ore and tungsten ore, and there must be a reason for this order. It can be assumed that the most urgently needed commodity in the United States is tung oil, followed by tin ore, and then tungsten ore.
Zhou Hexuan asked out loud: "Which is the largest importer of tungsten ore?" ”
"Germany." Ren Sida said.
Zhou Hexuan asked again: "What does Germany use tungsten ore for?" ”
Ren Sida said: "It is very useful, to build advanced aircraft, armor-piercing shells, and ship engines...... A lot of things need tungsten ore. ”
Zhou Hexuan nodded and said: "In other words, the main role of tungsten ore now is to make military equipment. ”
"It can be understood that way." Ren Si Dadao.
Zhou Hexuan continued to ask: "What about the tin mine?" ”
Ren replied: "Tin ore is mainly used for industrial products, especially in the chemical field. ”
"Which is the largest buyer of tin ore in China?" Zhou Hexuan asked.
"The United States, huh......" Ren Sida came back to his senses, "Mr. Zhou means to use the tin trade to seek American loans?" But the problem is that tin ore is not unique to China, there are a lot of tin mines in the Americas and the South Seas, and Chinese tin mines are not attractive enough to the United States. ”
"The crux of the matter is that the United States is not at war now, and tungsten ore is mainly used for military production, which is not the most urgent thing for the United States," Zhou said. Tin ore, which is widely used in the chemical industry, can make American capitalists even happier. ”
Ren Sida nodded subconsciously and said, "There is some truth to it." ”
Chen Guangfu clapped his hand and said: "Then so be it, use tin ore and tungsten ore as bargaining chips and put them on the negotiation table for the Americans to choose." ”
Zhou Hexuan said again: "What about tung oil? ”
Ren Sida shook his head and said: "I am engaged in the import and export trade of minerals, and I don't know much about the situation of tung oil. ”
Sid Mao smiled: "Tung oil is everywhere, the price is very cheap, and even the common people who can't afford to buy kerosene use tung oil to light lamps. It's not a rare thing, but can it still arouse the interest of Americans? ”
"Yes, how could Mr. Zhou mention tung oil?" Ren Sida asked.
How did Zhou Hexuan know what tung oil was used for? He's not a god. However, historical data shows that before the termination of the US-Japan trade agreement, the United States was impatient to sign a tung oil loan contract with China, rather than a trade contract for tin ore and tungsten ore, and there must be a reason for this!
These people on their ships are all playing with financial currency, and only Ren Sida belongs to the trading merchants. It's a pity that he is a trader specializing in mineral exports, and he has no knowledge of tung oil, and he can't find anyone to inquire about the value of tung oil.
Not only Chen Guangfu and the others, but even Zhou Hexuan himself has little knowledge of tung oil.
In their impression, tung oil is a domestic cheap thing, and its biggest role is to make paint. Ordinary people who can't afford kerosene can only light tung oil lamps for lighting. Of course, it can also be used for stir-frying, but it seems to be slightly poisonous, and the taste is not good, even low-level civilians will not eat it easily.
Does this stuff surprise Americans?
At the moment, tung oil was no longer discussed, and everyone began to discuss negotiation strategies, intending to make a big fuss about tungsten ore and tin ore.
After landing in the United States, Zhou Hexuan immediately spent money to find a business consultant to inquire in detail about the situation of tung oil in the United States. I don't know if I don't ask, I was shocked when I asked, tung oil is so awesome in the United States!
The Americans used to make paints, and the finest products used linseed oil, but when tung oil came to the United States, linseed oil was immediately replaced by Chinese tung oil. By the 30s, more than 90% of the U.S. paint industry used tung oil as raw materials.
Shanghai is the largest trading market for tung oil in China. With the fall of Shanghai, the import of tung oil from the United States has plummeted, which has driven American paint manufacturers crazy. Guangzhou is the second largest market for tung oil in China, and once Guangzhou falls, the American paint capitalists will jump off the building.
Not only that, because tung oil has combustibility, quick-drying and acid resistance, it is an irreplaceable raw material for the production of warships, ships, submarines, aircraft, wires and submarine cables at this time, and other raw materials of the same type are not as good as tung oil.
In addition, American scientists also heated tung oil to a certain temperature and allowed it to solidify into a gelatinous form, which was used as a substitute for eraser. Tung oil can also be used in the fields of medicine and glass products, and can be used as a refining product in the industry instead of gasoline.
It must be noted that there is only one tung oil production area in China, and there is no other semicolon. The United States is the largest importer of tung oil, accounting for 75% of the world's total tung oil imports, and now 850 kinds of American industrial products must use tung oil!
In the late Qing Dynasty, the United States began to transplant paulownia trees in the local area, but the planting effect was not very good. In the early 30s, the Americans went to the South Seas to plant a large number of tung trees, but they still did not achieve much success and could not meet the needs of American industry at all.
Once the tung oil trade between China and the United States is completely cut off, countless capitalists in the United States will be in a hurry.
It is no wonder that in history, after the fall of Guangzhou, Roosevelt panicked and wanted to sign a tung oil loan contract with China - all of them were forced by the capitalists.
Whether to support China or Japan is a capital game in the United States.
This is because the United States accounts for 43 percent of its trade with Japan and only 14 percent of its trade with China. In terms of investment, the United States invested $387 million in Japan and only $132 million in China. In the U.S. foreign trade exports, Japan accounted for 7.7%, ranking third; China accounted for only 1.1%, ranking 22nd.
Japan is the United States' number one trading partner in Asia, and when a war breaks out, the American capitalists naturally favor Japan.
But if U.S.-China trade is completely cut off, it is not in America's interest. In particular, the lack of tung oil resources, the only one in the world, hurt the interests of too many American capitalists, and Roosevelt had to be responsible for those capitalists.