I'm sure many readers who can't afford to buy a house are in pain, and I've been sad about this recently.

But today, I learned from my relatives who are real estate developers and an iron buddy who came back from the big city that in fact, I live with my parents, or are willing to rent a house, will be the mainstream in the future. It's impossible for house prices to skyrocket again!

I didn't believe it at first, but after listening to them, I felt the need to publish it to all readers. If you think it's not worth it for a dime, I'll write it backwards.

History is always strikingly similar, not only in ancient times, but also in the present.

I can definitely believe that in the future, housing prices will no longer become a general existence of stock speculation, and it is unreliable to make money by relying on this.

My iron buddy who came back from Shanghai has been listed in April and sold today, and it has been more than half a year. I'm about to lose confidence, and I just signed the house rental entrustment agreement through Lianjia in the morning, and I plan to rent it out. Unexpectedly, the guests who came to see the room at noon were particularly satisfied, and the conditions were negotiated and the contract was signed in the afternoon. It was barely sold!

In 15-16 years, when the Shanghai market was hot, the house sales cycle of this real estate was about two weeks, because in the surrounding area, this community is considered to be good in terms of support, quality and transportation.

However, now. In the Pudong Expo section, a 72-square-meter new public house, near the subway station, was listed in Lianjia, for a full 3 months, and only 2 people came to see the house. I asked him if the price was too high, and he said that it was already the lowest price for the same area in the same community. The final transaction price was 21% lower than the initial listing price.

It can be judged that the transaction cycle of about half a year, with a bargaining range of 5%-10%, is a typical microcosm of the second-hand property market in Shanghai. Some friends may not know that unlike second-, third- and fourth-tier cities, Shanghai, a mature first-tier city, the main body of housing transactions is the second-hand housing market, not the new housing market.

Strict purchase restrictions and increasingly unfriendly credit policies have also distressed many friends who want to buy a house, but please believe me, the more distressed must be the seller. The era of skyrocketing housing prices is coming to an end, trust me!

Some people say that the housing prices in the third and fourth tiers have skyrocketed recently? I'm talking nonsense, it's still going to skyrocket, and you can still invest in a house!

That's right. But in fact, it is only some of the strong third- and fourth-tier cities. More disadvantaged cities will continue to be vulnerable. A small number of third and fourth lines have taken off recently, just because after the first and second lines are locked, hot money is speculating. This growth is not endogenous and unsustainable.

2018 is a new year.

15-16 years of very loose money. In 17 years, there has been a significant tightening in the real estate sector - higher mortgage rates, purchase restrictions, and higher down payment standards for loans. The U.S. ended its easy money and began to tighten. If China's currency is too loose, the renminbi could depreciate rapidly or hot money could flow out in large quantities. Cause financial instability!

Another general trend from the perspective of population, China's post-90s generation is only 80% of the number of post-80s.

If you have a restaurant at home, you can only serve 10 tables a day, but later you can only serve 8 tables a day. All else being equal, how much does profitability change? Is it a 20% reduction?

Wrong! It could be a 50% drop!

Because your daily fixed costs need 6 tables of guests to spread out, only 4 tables are actually profitable. When guests are lowered, profits are slashed drastically.

The real estate market is a similar problem!

Once the population is small, the overall trend is difficult to get very good. This is different from when the post-70s passed the baton to the post-80s. The demand for housing after the 90s will decline, and the basis for the explosion of housing prices no longer exists.

Many of the current generation of middle-aged and elderly people have purchased additional commercial houses and invested in addition to their own living needs. In the second, third and fourth lines, there are too many families with 2 or more houses, considering that the homes of the elderly will be inherited by their children in the future, many post-90s families will face the happiness of holding 3 or more houses in the future.

Have you ever seen a person who was born in his 80s and owned 2-3 houses casually?

Readers, have you ever seen that there are even many people around you who do not own their own homes? They basically have houses – they complain about the scarcity of houses, but they actually mean the scarcity of high-quality houses, they may not have a house in Beijing's East Third Ring Road, but they all have them in their hometown. (So, in fact, in China, everyone has a house, and saying that there is no just means that there is no in the first-tier cities, and it cannot be used to make money)!

The National People's Congress has defined that "houses are for living, not for speculation". How to understand this sentence?

We must believe in the party and the government!

Take Shanghai, for example, and look at the city's big move: 700,000 new permanent rental homes in five years. What is the concept of 700,000 sets? At present, there are a total of 2.1 million valid rental houses in Shanghai. And most of them are residential buildings, not professional rental products.

The arrival of 700,000 of these new rental homes on the market will revolutionize Shanghai's rental market. Past experience has shown that skyrocketing housing prices are hard to control – and this government has shown you with their muscles that they can still control it!

At present, the average interest rate of the first home in the country is as high as 5.12%, which is 1.07 times higher than the benchmark interest rate. Among the 553 banks in the country, only 5 offer a 9% discount interest rate for the first home.

In other words, 90.8% of the banks in the country, begging grandpa to tell grandma, will not give you any preferential interest rate. You know, in August of 16 years, the average interest rate was only 4.44%, and this year, the actual interest rate hike for the first home has been as high as more than 15%.

This is still the first house, for the second set, the benchmark interest rate increase of 10% is basically not found, the 20% increase is the new normal, the highest fact that the rate hike is even more than 50%.

Coupled with the 60% down payment ratio for the second set, everyone will have a clear feeling. Those who have money are not qualified to buy a house, and those who are qualified to buy a house have no money, so they will not let you borrow money to invest in real estate. And those who have just enough money and are qualified, calculate the down payment, and then calculate the interest rate, frowning, and find that things are not simple.

Shanghai rose 8.4% year-on-year, and Shenzhen rose 0.5% year-on-year. According to such data, subtracting the annual interest rate of 5% per year, the actual return on house prices is only about 4%. The income from buying a house in a first-tier city this year is the level of Yu Bao.

And the risk is so high, in 2018, then buy a fart house!

Based on all the above analysis, in 2018, my personal forecast is: the first and second lines will continue to limit purchases and loans, and the bank currency will maintain a tone for 17 years, and at most moderately relaxed.

New home prices remain stable, and some cities where new home supply is extremely scarce are likely to rise slightly.

However, the price of second-hand housing has fallen visibly to the naked eye.

Third- and fourth-tier cities are seriously differentiated and have no reference value. The key depends on factors such as location and transportation, and if it can become a division of labor partner in the core cities of the first and second tiers, and can introduce larger industries and populations, it is still promising. But most Chinese counties do not have such conditions!

Of course, you just need to get married without a house. I propose, you better change your girlfriend, really, the kind of woman who only knows the house and doesn't love you. When you succeed, there are a lot of young girls who want as many as they want.

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From a personal point of view, the above content is definitely worth it, and it is much more than just reading a chapter of history travel. (PS, the Song Dynasty in history is also the Chinese dynasty with the highest housing prices, and the ancient people are also bitter enough.) ）

Let's start with the text of the previous chapter!

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