Although the topic of discussion was very serious, Chen Hongmian couldn't help laughing: "It's useless to tell me your flattering words, the emperor and the princes of the court are definitely willing to listen." ”

After a pause, he smiled and asked again: "Only these two times, I'm afraid the convincing power is not very sufficient?" ”

Hua Xue shook her head and said, "Of course." From the end of the Han Dynasty to the end of the Tang Dynasty, more than 700 years, and from the end of the Tang Dynasty to the present, it is more than 700 years. Push forward another 700 years from the end of the Han Dynasty, which is about the era when Confucius lived. , Confucius has a clear record of starvation, which shows how serious the natural disaster is. At that time, the thieves were active, apparently because of the natural disaster, and the people were starving. It's just that in the Spring and Autumn Period, the country was not unified, the land was vast and sparsely populated, but it was difficult to see the specific situation of the disaster, which could only be used as evidence of the existence of the disaster. ”

Chen Hongmi was not very convinced of this, but Hua Xue talked about Confucius's starvation, and as a Confucian disciple, it was really difficult for him to refute it. It can't be said that it is not because of natural disasters, but because of the ability of Confucius, right? Isn't this a deception of teachers and ancestors? And it is not in line with reality, if Confucius is not capable, how many other people are still capable?

After thinking about it, Chen Hongmi gritted his teeth and said: "You also said that there is no specific record of the disaster, I'm afraid it is difficult to use it as a basis." Anything else? ”

Hua Xue also knew that this was not to be relied upon, because his information recorded that this disaster was not at this time, but in the last years of Yin Shang. But this time did not match the law of once in 700 years, so Hua Xue had to count 700 years by herself and put on the disaster template. Fortunately, if you go back seven hundred years, there are indeed very obvious signs of disaster, and there are other records that it was indeed the Xiaoice River period at that time. However, this is not a difference in the records of the two worlds, but a scholarly controversy that exists in both worlds due to the long history and unclear records.

"And. Push up more than 700 years, Pangeng moved to Yin. Pangeng was moved because of the flooding of the Yellow River. Dashang has repeatedly moved the capital before, but because of the flood, he had to move the capital again, why did the flood disappear after Pangeng moved to Yin? Not only because of the good choice of places, but also because of the natural disasters of drought in the north and floods in the south, which should come at the right time, and there is less precipitation in the north, so why is there flooding? It's just that the overall water volume at that time was far more than now, so now it is a natural disaster of drought in the north and flooding in the south, and for Yin Shang, it is a good situation to alleviate the flood at the beginning. It wasn't until the natural disasters intensified year by year that the power of drought began to be felt. Then Wu Ding raised Fu and said that between the plates, the monarch and the ministers worked together to overcome the natural disaster, and then there was Wu Ding Zhongxing. ”

"Fu said that it was lifted between the plates" is the saying of "Mencius", Hua Xue said it smoothly, and Chen Hongmi was also convinced. This history, the classics are not clear, but the overall context is really right with what Hua Xue said, Chen Hongmi thought about it and could only admire.

Hua Xue said again: "At that time, the ghost side, Qiang side, and earth side in the north could not bear the disaster that was getting worse year by year, and went south to invade the border, so they achieved the prestige of women. Just like the Xianbei who went south at the end of the Han Dynasty, the Khitan who went south during the Five Dynasties, and even the Jianyu today. ”

Chen Hongmi listened carefully, and naturally found the loophole of Hua Xue: "What you said is very reasonable, the north is too cold and arid, and there is no food, so all ethnic groups will naturally go south." But you have missed a time here, during the time of Confucius, there were no large-scale southward alien races? ”

Hua Xue explained: "It's true that there is no record, but it doesn't say anything. During the Spring and Autumn Period, the main force of the war was the chariot, and although the Qin and Jin dynasties were not Zhou Tianzi, they were all great powers. When King Wu was fighting, he was only a hundred chariots. In contrast, we know that at that time, even if there were alien races going south, for Qin Jin, the alien races without chariots had no combat effectiveness at all, and it was not worth mentioning. However, Yan Guo, Zheng Guo, etc., more than 100 years ago when Confucius was born, there were records of Shanjung invading the south, and they were beaten very badly, and Yan Guo was even forced to move the capital because of this. But Shanrong unfortunately provoked the Qi State, and the slogan of Qi Huangong's 'respect for the king and Yiyi' must be familiar to adults, and the fate of Shanrong does not need to be repeated by students. ”

Chen Hongmi was completely convinced, this kid is indeed a genius who is not inferior to Xiang Lu. It is enough to study astronomy and history, and even the way of war is the way, which is not an ordinary genius.

After thinking carefully about Hua Xue's entire rhetoric, Chen Hongmi had to believe that the current natural disaster in the Ming Dynasty is what Hua Xue said, a natural disaster once in 700 years. It's just that Hua Xue said that there is still a problem to solve: "You said that this natural disaster occurs once in 700 years, which can be regarded as reasonable and well-founded." But how many years does this disaster last at a time? ”

This question is actually quite embarrassing. The natural disasters at the end of the Ming Dynasty actually lasted until the beginning of the Qing Dynasty, not that the natural disasters stopped as soon as the dynasty died and Chongzhen died. And even after the natural disasters stopped, the weather remained cold for a long time. But the persistent cold, rather than the capricious weather, flattened the catastrophe rather than the sudden outbreak at the end of the Ming Dynasty. The most unexpected natural disaster was the five years before Ming's death. This gives people a misleading impression that "natural disasters are with the Ming Dynasty".

"This natural disaster will last for a long time, or even more than a hundred years. The exact length of time is difficult to determine. Because of the sudden drop in temperature, the frequent outbreaks of natural disasters are followed by a period of stable low temperatures. Although disasters are not frequent during this period of low temperature, it cannot be regarded as a smooth weather. From past accounts, it is difficult to determine the specific timeline. ”

"Yijiazi?" Chen Hongmi exclaimed, "Didn't you just say five years? ”

"Five years is counted from next year, and one jiazi is the total time. Freezing three feet is not a day's cold, and the temperature drop is not a matter of a year or two. This sudden drop in temperature, according to the students' information from the data, began to erupt in the thirteenth year of Wanli fifty-two years ago. Adults can ask some elders with good memories that since the thirteenth year of Wanli, the weather has changed more and more frequently, and the significant change is that it has become colder. Since the twenty-eighth year of Wanli, the whole world has been in a period of frequent disasters. If you count from the thirteenth year of Wanli, there are still eight years of frequent disasters, and if you start from the twenty-eighth year of Wanli, I am afraid there will be twenty-three years. I've figured the former, but I've had to prepare for the latter, especially since even if the disaster eases and the weather will continue to be cold. Of course, even during periods of frequent disasters, natural disasters do not occur at all times and in every place, and the five-year period is extrapolated from the actual weather conditions in recent years. For example, this year, although it is a period of frequent disasters, at least near Suzhou, there is no significant drought, which can only be said to be a normal year. The rest of the localities may have disasters, but they are also confined to one or two provinces. ”