Chapter 22: Prophecy

What about business people? Is it possible to engage in business practices that are still outside the scope of economic research?

Bai Ginseng stood with his hands in his hands, he wanted to see what Boss Yan had that Yu Dafu admired so much. The pen "Fun" Pavilion www.biquge.info saw Yan Buwen introduce himself, and many of them have read the newspapers and magazines published by Yan Buwen Newspaper, and it is also a good person to make a third- or fourth-rate newspaper company among the first-class in a short period of time.

Yan Buwen picked up the chalk, turned around and began to write on the blackboard behind him, and did not speak, Bai Shen glanced at it, and Yu Dafu also looked at it curiously.

The students below chanted, "The invisible hand, and the visible hand." ”

"Teacher Yan, what are you writing here?" Someone joked that they didn't call Yan Buwen Boss Yan, but called Teacher Yan jokingly, and I don't know if it was sarcastic or respectful. After Yan Buwen finished writing, a finger hooked a little under the word "hand" for "visible hand", so he erased it a little, then threw the chalk in the chalk box, and said to the students: "I don't know which economist's work you are studying now?" ”

"Of course, it is Mr. Yan Fu's translation of "The Wealth of Nations", and then there are the treatises of economists such as Marshall and other economists translated by Mr. Bai Shen and several economics teachers, or the economic treatise written by Mr. Bai Shen himself." A student blurted out, obviously very familiar with the subject he studied, after answering, Bai Ginseng nodded in appreciation, the current economic theory is basically developed from Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations", he has studied abroad for many years, and has also had in-depth exchanges with economic predators such as Marshall and Pigou, and thinks that now in the East, he is also ranked in the status of economists.

Therefore, except for some necessary works such as Adam Smith, Marshall and others who need to be translated and taught, he thinks that there is no need to translate the works of others.

Bai Ginseng nodded and smiled: "Contemptible people are not talented, in terms of the study of economics alone, I am afraid that there are few people in the East who are more thorough than me." "I'm afraid Bai Ginseng doesn't have much confidence in other things, but when it comes to the economy, he is full of self-confidence, after all, he is also a master-level person.

Yan Buwen arched his hand, and then said, "Does anyone have any explanation for this title on the blackboard?" Yan Buwen wrote these words casually, and the students below had already explored and whispered privately, and then someone raised his hand and stood up directly and replied: "The invisible hand, we naturally know, is the theory put forward in "The Wealth of Nations", which refers to the role of the market mechanism in economic development, and the market should be allowed to regulate the economy by itself and reduce government intervention, so that the market can be active. ”

"This is the squad leader of the class, Bi Cong." Bai Ginseng introduced that he was also his protΓ©gΓ©.

Yan Buwen nodded: "This classmate is good, but you only talked about a little, and you haven't talked about it yet, this visible hand, I don't know what this Bi Cong squad leader thinks?" ”

Bi Chong's quick thinking, just now when he saw the first few words written by Yan Buwen, he immediately thought of the "Wealth of Nations" that Bai Ginseng had explained in class before, so without thinking, he immediately stood up and threw out his own opinions, wanting to confirm his learning and killing the majesty of this new teacher, but he didn't see that the white ginseng teacher next to him had a white face like a white ginseng. But in the second half of the sentence, Bi Chong didn't think too much, so he could only make it up casually: "This, the visible hand, Mo is not, Mo is not, the people involved in it, either the workers or the bosses, are the elements that constitute economic stability." Or, or rather, some peasants and workers who create the economy, do they have to work with their hands, but they must work with their hands. ”

Bi Cong said in the end, his face was red, and what he said at first was a bit similar, but in the end, he didn't know what he said, and his mind turned sharply, thinking that this "visible hand" must have appeared in the books of his predecessors, and it was in the same vein as the "invisible hand", but I just didn't recall that there was such a damn "visible hand" in "The Wealth of Nations", couldn't it be that this Yan boss fooled me?

"Wrong!" Yan Buwen drank and asked the squad leader to sit down, "Can anyone else guess it?" ”

After Bi Cong sat down, he was very embarrassed, when had he been humiliated like this, after sitting down, he did not have a sense of relief to be let go, but felt a great humiliation, and he had a good impression of Boss Yan before, but now it is all gone. I couldn't help but feel resentful in my heart, I don't know where this argument came from, it won't be self-righteousness. couldn't help gritting his teeth and said: If you don't tell the reason, I will definitely not let you go.

"Haha, Bi Cong, the new teacher has three fires, don't worry about him, he wants to kill our prestige."

"Yes, how can you contradict the new teacher, Brother Bi, you are too impulsive."

Bi Cong swept his cold eyes, the two of them quickly shut up, and Bi Cong said, "Go to class well!" ”

The white ginseng is still cold on the surface, but Bi Cong was scolded and sat down just now, which made him feel very uncomfortable, after all, Bi Cong is also his proud protΓ©gΓ©, so he was refuted, and he had no face. But Yu Dafu, the old **, was watching from the side, and he couldn't get mad, so he could only carefully figure out the meaning of the "visible hand" handwritten by Boss Yan.

Yan Buwen's eyes glanced at it, from left to right, from right to left, the squad leader Bi Cong had already suffered a loss just now, naturally no one dared to touch the moldy head, so the aura of the classroom was so cold, this is undoubtedly the best resistance. Yan Buwen said with a smile: "I thought that Sun Yat-sen University was all talented and smart offspring, but I didn't expect that when I looked at it today, it was all wilted eggplant." Yan Buwen ridiculed, in fact, knowing the rejection of the students, he could only use the most direct "radical method".

Finally, a female student couldn't stop the pull of the person next to her, stood up, and said angrily: "We are not wilting eggplants, but I just think that the teacher, your argument is probably your family's words, and no one knows about the society, the economy, or foreign countries, no one agrees, or there is no thesis formed and not published." This kind of blind theory that is purely self-playing, we, we don't bother to guess, and we don't bother to learn! The female students were full of indignation, and they told what the students here thought in one bite, and confronted Teacher Yan in the classroom.

"That's right, that's it, everyone can pull out a doctrine when they talk about it, and these things that haven't been tested in practice are all melon skins, and we don't bother to learn."

"If you have published a paper through this theory, both at home and abroad, then take it out and tell us, otherwise we will not agree."

"Even if you say that the sky is falling, you are happy to say it alone."

The female student smiled and looked around, and everyone echoed her words, very proud, so she refuted a few more words before sitting down.

Bai Ginseng saw that this group of students did not give face to this Boss Yan and Teacher Yan so much, and he was naturally very happy in his heart, at least this group of students was not so irritable in his class, at least his heart was still towards himself. But of course, he couldn't embarrass this Boss Yan too much, so he gave a face: "This Boss Yan, since the students have no intention of listening to the class, it is better to ......"

Yan Buwen smiled, this group of students is really arrogant, they say that others are wrong before they hear anything, which is too proud and complacent. So he waved his hand directly, signaling that Bai Ginseng didn't need to say much, Bai Ginseng was closed, held back his anger, and continued to watch this Teacher Yan's ugly appearance coldly, no matter what he said now, the students would not listen.

Yu Dafu snorted coldly, and the students saw that the director who accompanied the class had an unkind face, and hurriedly suppressed the discussion.

This visible hand, from Keynes's "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money", broke out in 1929-1933 the most serious, long-lasting and widespread economic crisis in the history of capitalism. It was in this state that Keynes devoted himself to the study of economic theory in order to cure the diseases of the capitalist economy and seek measures to extricate himself from the crisis, and published the General Theory in 1936.

The "visible hand" of the government plays a huge role in maintaining the balance between supply and demand and maintaining economic stability. Capitalism does not have a mechanism to automatically achieve full employment equilibrium, and therefore advocates government intervention in the economy, through government policies, especially fiscal policies, to stimulate consumption and increase investment in order to achieve full employment.

That is, the prototype of "macro regulation and micro autonomy" in the future.

Yan Buwen said: "What do you think of the U.S. economy? ”

"Needless to say? The economy has been completely liberalized, the situation is very good, the economy is developed, and there is a level of singing and dancing. Some people scoffed at Yan Buyan's ignorance, the American economy was also part of their research, and Say's Law as a god that economists believed in has shown its unparalleled power, and the theory of liberal economics has proved to be unprecedented. Looking at the Western countries as long as they embark on the road of capitalism, there is no one who does not have a hard waist, why, it is because of the money, the market has been extremely expanded, blowing a whirlwind in the world, sweeping the world's money.

Now the students of economics are still intoxicated with the American dream, and when the edifice of capitalism in the United States collapses a few years later, affecting all capital markets, they understand that there are some things that cannot be done by consciousness alone.

The students had heated discussions, but all the students who had seen and heard about the prosperity of the United States were all confused by this great market of capital, so much so that many economists now mistakenly look at the US economy, which is inflated like a balloon that will explode immediately with a single nail. Among them, white ginseng, which has been confused for many years, still believes that this "invisible hand" can regulate everything, and the "Say's Law" will lead the way in the 19th and 20th centuries, bringing the capital market into a new period of glory.

Yan Buwen knocked on the table, suppressed the students' voices, and said: "I don't think so, this prosperous edifice built by the United States is about to collapse, I predict that in less than three years, the United States, and even the capital countries of the West, will usher in a cold winter." Tens of thousands of businesses will fail, banks will close their doors, the American financial world will be completely paralyzed, millions of Americans will have their savings in vain, and tens of millions of people will lose their jobs. The capitalists poured milk into the sea, burned grain and cotton in public, and buried livestock directly. ”

After Yan Buwen finished speaking, the students all looked at him in shock, not frightened by the scene that Yan Buwen said, but a kind of detached anger, this guy can't refute it, let's talk nonsense, how can a capitalist pour milk into the sea, or burn the grain directly, everyone has to eat, how can no one buy it, this argument is too ...... I don't know what to call it!

"Alarmist!" Bai Ginseng finally couldn't help it and shouted, "It's pure nonsense." This Boss Yan, don't talk about it if you don't understand the economy, so as not to laugh at it. ”

Yu Dafu quietly reminded beside him: "Brother Yan, this is too much, there have been many economic crises in the history of the United States, and the biggest ones were only in 1837 and 1857, when only a few thousand enterprises closed down, and the number of unemployed people was only tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands. The bleak scene you are talking about does not correspond to the current booming US economy. ”

Although Yu Dafu devoted himself to the study of literature, he also took care of the economy, so he was still shocked to hear Yan Buwen's arguments.

Yan Buwen continued: "Everyone doesn't need to be so indignant, they will know after three years." Only this visible hand can save the world. ”

Bai Ginseng sneered: "It doesn't matter if you talk about it in our class, but don't say it out of this class, otherwise it will make people laugh." ”

Bi Chong also found an opportunity to fight back, saying: "The American economy is so strong, we still have a lot to learn, and it is not so easy to curse people to death." I suggest that Boss Yan come and learn a few lessons from us. Otherwise, he would not have understood the world economy. ”

"Hahaha......" The students in the class laughed incessantly, thinking that there was something terrible, but they didn't expect that they were just half-, and they would only be alarmist.

Yan Buwen smiled, didn't care, said a few words to Yu Dafu in private, and prepared to leave. Yu Dafu was also very embarrassed, apologized one after another, Yan Buwen said that there was no need, and when he was about to leave, a blonde foreigner stood up and said in broken Chinese: "Teacher Yan, you haven't said what the visible hand is." ”

Yan Buwen looked over, the blonde boy seemed to be from other countries to borrow here, the blonde boy saw Yan Buwen looking at him, so he introduced himself in a panic: "I am Leonid Kantorovich from the Soviet Union, my parents came to Guangzhou to work, I stopped by to have a look." ”

"Oh?" Yan Buwen saw that the young man asked sincerely, and ignored the shameful laughter of the classmates next to him. So he stopped and said, "This visible hand is, the government!" ”

"Government, government ......" The blonde boy tasted carefully, and a hint of shock suddenly appeared in his eyes, as if he had caught something.

"Get out, get out!"

"Get out of our classroom!"

"We don't welcome people who don't know anything about the economy to come and teach us."

Yan Buwen "rolled" out of the classroom amid a banging and scolding, and Yu Dafu, who was very embarrassed on the side, walked away quickly. Bai Ginseng smiled and returned to the podium, and after this time, the students should know who the economics master is.

It wasn't until a few years later that an unprecedented economic crisis broke out in the United States, a depression, and countries raised tariffs one after another, and started dumping wars, tariff wars, and currency wars, intending to transfer the crisis to other countries. The crisis lasted until 1933, and it was not until Keynes published in 1936 that the role of the "visible hand" of government was thoroughly expounded in 1936 in his General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.

In his foreword, Keynes said: "I have heard that in the land of the East there were people who had put forward the argument that the government was the 'visible hand' three years before the economic crisis, but unfortunately no one paid attention to it at the time, but perhaps it was useless to pay attention to it, because at that time everyone was still indulging in a dream of prosperity...... My book also has half of his ......"

In 1929, when the economic crisis broke out, Bai Shen, the director of economics who was still teaching at Sun Yat-sen University, submitted his resignation: "At the beginning, someone had a far-sighted argument that the American dream was shattered, but I was short-sighted and very ridiculed at the time. I need time to understand the real capital markets. ”

And Bi Cong, who confronted Yan Yan in front of him in that class, was also very ashamed and never mentioned it to others. On the other hand, when a Soviet economist, Leonid Kontorovich, won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1975, when asked who had the greatest influence on him: "When I was only 14 years old, I went to Guangzhou with my parents for a while, and then I also borrowed a few days of classes at Sun Yat-sen University. Visible hand', after the economic crisis in 29 years, he was my first teacher who had a great influence on me, his foresight, told me that everything can not only be seen on the surface, his Chinese name is Yan Buwen, I call him Teacher Yan, but unfortunately I have only met once, I don't know if he is still alive now......" Leonid Kantorovich shed tears when he said it......