When it came time to decide to leave Rurione, Cunningham did have two options. Judging by the state of the fleet at that time, he should have sent the fleet south and returned to Cape Town to end the interception. From Cunningham's own point of view, the Tang Imperial fleet still has the possibility of going south, so he still has a chance to intercept the Tang Imperial fleet, and now that the storm is blowing fiercely, the Tang Imperial fleet will not be able to attack Cape Town, and he has every reason to stay. What's more, the replenishment fleet that had returned to the port of Cape Town to replenish its fuel had arrived.

Cunningham decided to stay, and on the night of the 25th, he sent a destroyer to rendezvous with the supply fleet. At that time, apart from Ruriwang, only the western part of Madagascar, that is, in the Mozambique Strait, had suitable anchorage and replenishment, so he set the southern end of the Mozambique Channel where the fleet and the fleet would meet. On the 28th, just before he joined up with the supply fleet, he received an extremely important piece of news that a large number of water patrol planes of the Tang Empire had appeared in Moroni, and that a group of seaplanes was obviously not stationed in Moroni, but somewhere in the north of the island of Madagascar. In other words, the Tang Imperial Marines built a temporary seaplane activity base over there!

If you change someone else, you will definitely miss this information, at that time Godford did not pay attention to this information, he also made a suggestion to Cunningham, the fleet will return to Cape Town immediately after refueling, most of the warships need to enter the port for maintenance, and the weather is so bad that there is no reason for the fleet to stay here, the fleet of the Tang Empire may not have gone south at all, but is operating in a sea area north of the island of Madagascar, and will wait until the storm has passed before going south.

Cunningham did not take Goldford's advice. And also made Godelfoy a little more patient, giving him a few more days. Cunningham not only paid attention to this information, but also accurately judged the situation at hand. And this is the difference between a good fleet commander and an ordinary fleet commander. In the face of difficulties, ordinary fleet commanders thought of preserving themselves first of all. And a good fleet commander, while thinking about preserving himself, will also take into account that the enemy will also encounter difficulties, and this is the opportunity to defeat the enemy, and defeating the enemy itself is also overcoming difficulties!

Cunningham's first thought was why the Don Marines wanted to build a base for seaplane activities on the island of Madagascar. Let's be direct. What exactly are these seaplanes used for to perform their missions?

In the British Navy, the main task of seaplanes is to carry out anti-submarine patrols, especially in the North Sea, the North Atlantic, more than eighty percent of the seaplanes of the British Air Force (British surface seaplanes belong to the Air Force, and there are very few anti-submarine patrol planes belonging to the Navy) are carrying out anti-submarine patrol missions, especially those long-range seaplanes assisted by the United States, almost all of them carry out this task without exception. Actually, in the navies of the Don Empire, the United States, etc. Seaplanes are also mainly used to carry out anti-submarine patrols, especially large shore-based seaplanes.

In addition to anti-submarine patrols, seaplanes are responsible for search and rescue. Surveillance, reconnaissance and so on work, while seaplanes do not belong to combat aircraft in a narrow sense. is a second-tier military aircraft.

In Cunningham's view, the deployment of seaplanes by the Tang Imperial Marines to the north of the island of Madagascar at this time was not at all for anti-submarine or search and rescue, and these seaplanes had only one purpose, that is, to monitor the Mozambique Strait and prevent the British and French fleets from going north from this side. And this also proves that the first task force of the Tang Empire is in no way in the northern waters of Madagascar, and it will not go south from the Mozambique Channel.

The reason for this inference is very simple: there are no storms in the Mozambique Strait, the aircraft carrier can be used normally, and the carrier-based reconnaissance aircraft on the aircraft carrier, and even the small seaplanes on the escort cruisers, are more effective in carrying out reconnaissance missions than the shore-based large seaplanes. Moreover, these planes belong to the fleet and report directly to the fleet, and according to the establishment, the shore-based large seaplanes either belong to the shore-based aviation units of the Navy or to the Marine Corps, and even if they are discovered, they need to pass through several transmissions to send the news to the fleet, which is not only inefficient, but also wastes a lot of time. If Task Force 1 were to move south from the Mozambique Channel, its carrier-based reconnaissance aircraft would be sufficient to cover the entire strait, and there would be no need to rely on the power of shore-based seaplanes to carry out reconnaissance missions.

In addition, if the ocean-going submarines in the British and French expeditionary fleets were based in Cape Town, they would have to think of operating in the Mozambique Strait, especially in the northern waters of the strait. First, the wind and waves in the south are huge, and the submarine has a limited diving distance, and the submarine floating on the surface of the sea is more likely to be destroyed by storms. Second, the distance is too far, and even if the submarine can reach the Mozambique Channel, its ability to continue to move is very limited. The most important thing is that there is no merchant fleet of the Tang Empire on this side at all, and in the absence of exact intelligence, it is almost impossible to find the fleet on the vast sea, and it is useless for submarines to come. Therefore, it is unlikely that these seaplanes deployed in the north of the island of Madagascar could be used to carry out anti-submarine patrol missions.

Combining these circumstances, Cunningham made a bold guess that Task Force 1 would not be in the waters north of Madagascar or south from the Mozambique Channel. Counting the distance traveled by Task Force 1 after leaving the port of Colombo, it is entirely certain that Task Force 1 still has sufficient fuel. Therefore, it is very likely that Task Force 1 is heading south from the waters east of Madagascar, and it is very likely that it is now somewhere northeast of Madagascar, or even to the east, and is heading south.

Task Force 1 had enough fuel to get to Cape Town, but the weather was so bad that Task Force 1 would not rush to Cape Town and would be on standby near the island of Madagascar. When the fleet is at sea, it is impossible to stop, especially when the wind and waves are relatively strong, the battleship must try to face the wind, or sail against the wind, so as to reduce the impact of the wind and waves on the battleship, especially the impact of crosswinds. Therefore, the fuel on the battleship will continue to decrease, and it will drag on for a few days, even if the weather is good. Then the first task force must be refueled before it can reach Cape Town.

It can be said that Cunningham went with Chang Jie Xinxiang. This was also the same effect of meteorological factors on both sides, as Cunningham prepared to rendezvous with the supply fleet. He also thought that Task Force 1 and Task Force 3 would find a place to refuel. If the two Tang Empire naval ground fleets did not go to Moroni to refuel, they would have to choose to refuel somewhere in the Mozambique Channel. After making this judgment, Cunningham made a bold decision, and the joint Anglo-French expeditionary fleet entered the Mozambique Channel and completed the refueling operation in the sheltered part of the strait. Then, depending on the situation, look for opportunities to annihilate Task Force 1 and Task Force 3!

At that time, Tan Renhao did think about not returning to Moroni, and directly looking for anchorage for replenishment when needed, and the anchorage was likely to be in the Mozambique Channel, near the island of Madagascar, or off the coast of Mozambique. The reason for Tan Renhao's decision is very simple, Moroni does not have the infrastructure for the fleet to dock, and the replenishment operation can only be carried out in the anchorage state, and it is also directly provided by the supply ship with fuel, food and fresh water, while the replenishment operation at other anchorages is exactly the same. In this way, the fleet can save a lot of sailing time. But Cunningham couldn't be sure whether the Tang Empire's fleet was resupplying at Moroni or outside. So, he had to prepare for both.

If Task Force 1 and Task Force 3 choose to replenish in the Mozambique Channel.

Cunningham's inference, then, suggests that the two fleets are likely to be resupplying in a sheltered bay south of the Mozambique Channel. And as long as there is definite information (the time when the supply fleet left Moroni), then he can deduce the approximate location of the Tang Empire's fleet, although this is only an approximate location. It was enough for him to find his target.

If Task Force 1 and Task Force 3 were to return to Moroni for resupply operations, he would have to move his fleet as far north as possible, so that he could save as much time as possible when attacking Moroni, and he could choose to launch a surprise attack at night as much as possible, so that Task Force 1's aircraft carriers would be useless.

This is why Cunningham chose to use the Mango River estuary for his supply points. It is about 180 nautical miles from the southern tip of the Mozambique Channel and has entered the central part of the Mozambique Channel. And saving this 180 nautical miles is equivalent to saving the fleet about 6 hours, which is also half a night's sailing time, or half an extra night's combat time, and in battle, these 6 hours can be said to be decisive!

It can be seen that Cunningham is actually fighting in the dark, and the battlefield is also opaque to him. Although, Cunningham received several important pieces of information, such as the time when the Tang fleet left the port of Colombo, the time when Moroni was captured, and the construction of a seaplane activity base by the Tang Empire Marines on the northern coast of the island of Madagascar, and these pieces of information were accurate.

However, Cunningham still did not have any information directly related to Task Force 1 and Task Force 3, that is, he was not aware of the specific activities of Task Force 1 and Task Force 3. And all of Cunningham's decisions were made through the conclusions he had drawn from his speculation, without any direct intelligence to justify his decisions.

From this point of view, on the battlefield, the situation of the two sides is relatively balanced. The decisions made by Tan Renhao and Chang Jianxin were actually made through speculation and conclusions. Neither side has any direct information about the opponent, neither knows the specific whereabouts of the opponent, and is groping in the dark, trying to find an opportunity to catch the opponent, and then give the opponent a fatal blow. It can be said that this is also caused by the weather factors here, if there was no such bad weather, the reconnaissance planes sent by the aircraft carriers of the two sides would probably have caught each other a long time ago, and the battle would have been fruitful!

After rendezvous with the supply fleet, the Anglo-French expeditionary fleet spent the morning replenishing fuel and food. Cunningham also began to believe that his judgment was not wrong, and if the First Task Force was in the Mozambique Channel, then the reconnaissance aircraft of the Tang Imperial Navy had already appeared. In the afternoon, after separating from the supply fleet, the joint Anglo-French expeditionary fleet set sail for the waters north of the Indian Reef to maneuver and stand by. What Cunningham needed most was a piece of accurate information, even if it wasn't. For example, the news of the departure of the supply ships that are still in Moroni, or the news that the 1st and 3rd task forces have arrived in Moroni. All these can make him make new judgments.

The key information did not wait, and by eleven o'clock in the evening, Cunningham was waiting for the news of the sudden shelling of the supply fleet, and then the supply fleet did not send any more news. The only explanation is that the supply fleet was wiped out, and it was quickly wiped out. He only received a telegram, but it was enough, the telegram mentioned that the other side had capital ships, and there were also a large number of cruisers and destroyers, and the artillery fire was quite fierce, and the supply ships were hit one after another!

This is definitely Task Force 3. This was Cunningham's first judgment, and he then concluded that Task Force 1 was in the vicinity of Task Force 3 and that Task Force 1 had not taken part in combat operations because it was at night. In addition, the Tang Imperial Navy knew his whereabouts, so it appeared at the southern end of the Mozambique Strait, to block him in the Mozambique Strait, and as soon as the day dawned, the bombers of the Tang Empire would reach his head!

Not to mention Cunningham, any person would make such a judgment under the circumstances at the time, replacing Spruance, Tan Renhao and others are the same. In other words, at that time, Cunningham's thought was not to immediately find the Third Task Force for a decisive battle, but to flee for his life. Even if he can defeat the 3rd Task Force at night, as long as the 1st Task Force is not defeated and dragged in the Mozambique Channel, then after dawn, he will have to be completely finished, and Cunningham has been warned many times that the strike capability of the Tang Imperial Naval Aviation must not be underestimated! To make matters worse, the three aircraft carriers in the British expeditionary fleet were undergoing urgent repairs in the port of Cape Town, and they were not operating with Cunningham's fleet at all!

Now, Cunningham and Chang Jian are thinking of running for their lives, not dueling each other, which can be regarded as an accident in naval warfare!