.“ Why not? ”

"Why?"

This is the most frequently asked question in the German Cabinet, the German High Command, and in the taverns of the German High Command since the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War, and they all discuss the same thing: whether Germany is going to intervene in the fighting that is taking place on the Iberian Peninsula with armed force.

"Why not? This was a great opportunity to expand the influence of the empire in southern Europe, and behold, the Italians had sent troops, should they become the rulers of Spain and all of southern Europe? This is what the supporters of troop donors often say.

"Why? We have already sent more than 20,000 soldiers into Spain as members of the Multinational Joint Force, and the situation there is bad enough, and there is no need for us to get involved in the internal affairs of the Spaniards in their own country? Those who oppose it often add, "We won't be as stupid as the Italians!" ”

If such an event had happened 20 years ago, Germany would have spared no effort to send troops to Spain to expand its international influence, but now is different from the past, when this empire has more power than the British Empire had at its peak, its leaders and ordinary citizens have learned to think, weigh and make trade-offs, and if there is enough profit to be made, they are even willing to send their troops to the distant and cold polar regions, if it does not help to obtain any kind of benefit. People who are close at hand will also choose to sit on the sidelines.

The question now is what the costs and gains of German armed intervention in the Spanish Civil War will be, and what will be lost and gained if the situation in Spain develops.

Hanover, Charlotte Street.

"Ladies and gentlemen! Ladies and gentlemen! Listen to me, everybody! ”

A middle-aged man of average stature, with a cleanly shaved face and an old-fashioned German army coat with no rank, jumped up the steps of the roadside, and his voice stopped many passers-by, as has not been uncommon on the streets since the Reich enacted new regulations on speech and assembly. As long as it is a legitimate and legitimate political opinion, and as long as it does not maliciously attack the policies of the Reich and the members of the German royal family, such speeches will not be interfered with by the police.

"The Empire could have taken advantage of this opportunity to establish a Spanish regime that would be completely loyal to the Empire. It doesn't matter if it's a monarchy or a democracy, what we want is their absolute loyalty to us, not the government of Alfonso XIII, which is openly and secretly! Only by establishing a Spanish regime that we can trust can we have a firmer grasp of the Strait of Gibraltar, and if we now allow the Spanish ** armed forces to capture Madrid, defeat the government army, and establish a new government that is not under our control, then it will not be long before the fortress of Gibraltar will be attacked by this revolutionary government, and then we will have to send troops to Spain, and there will be many more than we are now! When the time comes. We have to fight all of Spain, not to easily clean up the crumbling Alfonso XIII regime and the unstable ** forces as we do now! ”

"Do you think you're the one who can take on the role of the new king of Spain?"

An unfriendly voice came from the crowd, and onlookers burst into laughter.

The man on the steps didn't look panicked at all, he stretched out his left hand and raised his index finger, "No, but I believe it will not be difficult to find a candidate who can be trusted by the Imperial Government and will not be opposed by the Spanish people!" ”

"And then?" The voice just now asked unceremoniously: "And then send a steady stream of financial and material aid to our new allies to help them rebuild their homes and restore their economies?" Ha! If we have the money and supplies, we might as well invest them in West Africa or South Asia, and at least we can get a good return! ”

There was another burst of laughter, and the number of onlookers grew. Inside, there was also a police officer wearing a pointed helmet and an off-white coat. He tied his baton around his waist and looked very calmly at the middle-aged man on the steps with his hands behind his back, the speaker who had just found the naysayer from the crowd. There are signs of street speech moving towards street debate.

"Having a stable and reliable government in Spain is not something that can be compared to a simple investment, it's a political investment whose returns can't be measured in money, you know? Political Investment! ”

"I don't know what political investment is, do any of you here understand?" The opponent has a loud voice and a burly figure than the one on the steps, and at first glance one might think of a pig killer or a bakery. For a few seconds after he asked this question, no one else in the crowd came forward, so he continued:

"All I know is that the other side of the investment does not need to kill the German soldiers, regardless of profit or loss, and what about Spain? Can we take it without sacrificing tens of thousands of people? ”

The man on the steps saw that this was not good, so he clenched his fists and shouted:

"Despite the sacrifices. But it's definitely worth it! ”

"My two sons are in the military, and I don't want them to die for a meaningless war!"

The "pig killer" said that he left without looking back, and most of the onlookers on the side seemed to have relatives who had served in the army, so they were also quite touched at this time, and without waiting for the speaker to announce the end of his speech, the people dispersed in twos and threes, leaving only the speaker shaking his head helplessly.

Berlin, the Supreme High Command of the Three Armed Forces.

In a huge operational command room, dozens of army, air force, and navy generals gathered around a large battlefield sand table. Topographically and geographically, it is easy to identify the area represented by the sandbox, the Iberian Peninsula, or indeed the neighboring country Spain, which is suffering from civil war.

"Major, statistics!"

An army general with a half-bald head and a very serious expression took out a handkerchief and wiped it on his forehead, which was dripping with small beads of sweat. Opposite him, a small army general of a similar age and gray hair also had a feeling of collapse after the severe consumption of brain cells.

The officer in charge of the statistics frowned and calculated quickly, and the people around him were silent, and the command room, which was very lively just now, was now so quiet that the sound of a needle falling to the ground could be heard.

After a few minutes, the major, who was in his early thirties, looked up at the two generals respectively, straightened his voice, and announced:

"The Northern Army under the command of Admiral Otto was victorious, with losses of between 75,000 and 80,000 men, and about 3 motor wings, 1 transport brigade, and 15 to 20 trains of equipment were worn out for various reasons; The Southern Army under the command of General Haast failed, losing more than 400,000 soldiers, heavy equipment, and a considerable number of civilian casualties! ”

After the results were announced, the expression of the "winner" was not softened, but the face was even more ugly than that of the "loser". It took him a moment before he looked at his opponent with a look of loss.

"Alas......"

"General Otto doesn't have to blame himself too much, after all, it is very difficult for us to have a chance to meet a strong opponent like General Haast on the battlefield!" The tall lieutenant general on the side came over and comforted him.

The half-bald army general shook his head at him with a wry smile and didn't say a word. At this time, the gray-haired army general on the opposite side got up and walked up to the major officer in charge of statistics.

"Not miscalculated?"

He asked softly.

The Major looked at him, then at the data in his hand, and shook his head affirmatively.

The gray-haired army general took a long breath, he knew very well in his heart that the danger and variables of the battlefield were far from being simulated by the sand table exercise, and that 1,000 people on the sand table might never have a chance to defeat 10,000 opponents with the same equipment or even superior equipment, but in reality, 1,000 people could make 10,000 invading enemies bleed. In other words, the defending "Southern Army" can use more geographical conditions and means of warfare to fight the invading "Northern Army", even if it cannot repel them, it can cost them more manpower and material resources.

The German ** team has never been afraid to engage a strong enemy head-on, but they do not like to be led around by small groups of enemies in the mountains, hills, and forests, and they don't like the kind of combat mode that is headless and brainless, and completely does not conform to the military lesson plan. Fortunately, the stubbornness and conservatism of the French government, the smallness of Britain, and the confusion of Austria-Hungary prevented them from encountering such problems in the initial war, but in the later United States and Russia, small groups of armed elements who were both soldiers and civilians gave them headaches with logistics and transportation, as well as the security of barracks and airfields.

"Hey, Otto......" The gray-haired army general walked up to the general, who was still sitting in his chair with his head bowed, and wanted to say a few words of comfort to this stubborn old friend, but in this case, it was obviously irresponsible to say casually things like "this is just a deduction", "hey, luck is on my side this time", "it's okay, you will definitely win me next time". So, in the end, he just stretched out his right hand and gently patted the other party's shoulder, and then silently left the command room.

With the generals gone, the room grew more and more deserted, until the officer in charge of statistics also left, leaving only the army general with a half-bald head and a gloomy expression.

"Was it born at the wrong time, or was I completely wrong?" The veteran, who was nearly sixty years old, muttered to himself, "It seems that His Majesty's point of view is still right this time, and the occupation of Spain is nothing but a terrible war and the double quagmire of economy and military after the war!" Nothing! ”