Volume 11 The Central Island Section 44 Tactical Inferences [The Forty-first Outbreak of Sealing and Tui]
After receiving the telegram from Tan Renhao, Gan Yongxing first inquired about the situation on the side of the Second Task Force and the Midway Marine Corps, and after receiving Liao Hanxiang's reply, he called Nie Renfeng again to ask for instructions, and then sent a call back to Tan Renhao. Then, he sent a telegram directly to the Second Task Force, asking the fleet to retreat 150 nautical miles at night, to reduce the bombing operations during the day by half, to pay attention to the fleet's air defense, and to monitor the surrounding sea areas to avoid a surprise attack by the American fleet.
When he was done with these things, it was already half past eleven, and Gan Yongxing had just walked out of the communication center and was about to go back to sleep when he saw Nie Renfeng waving to him next to the corridor corridor. Gan Yongxing was secretly shocked, the principal had already gone back to sleep, could it be that the phone call that started made the principal rush over.
"I can't sleep, I want to go out for a walk, aren't you in a hurry to go back and rest?" Nie Renfeng walked into the office, and without waiting for Gan Yongxing to answer, he continued, "Did you send a telegram back to Ren Hao and them?" ”
"Just came back and reassured them that we had been alerted."
"So, what's your arrangement?" Nie Renfeng went to make two cups of tea and let Gan Yongxing sit down.
"I sent a telegram to Lei Shaoqing, asking the Second Task Force to retreat 150 nautical miles at night, and reducing the daytime support mission to strengthen the fleet's air defense and reconnaissance and search in the surrounding waters. In addition, Liao Hanxiang will also send this telegram, Lei Shaoqing and they will definitely be able to receive the telegram. ”
Nie Renfeng nodded, went to the desk drawer and took out a box of chocolate biscuits. "People are old and often feel F4U, so I prepared something to eat. Do you want two? ”
"Thank you, Headmaster." Gan Yongxing immediately took the biscuit unceremoniously, he received a telegram from Tan Renhao when he was about to go home after working overtime, and he had already broken F4U.
"Do you think it makes sense to analyze benevolently?" Nie Renfeng asked the key question.
"This ......," Gan Yongxing hesitated. Swallowing the biscuit in his mouth, "I'm thinking about it too." There is no clear judgment yet, and perhaps there is some truth in Renhao's analysis. ”
"Yes, I thought about it for more than ten minutes, and I also felt that there was some truth in his analysis." Nie Renfeng shrugged his shoulders, "It's just." He has no evidence, and we don't have any evidence to do so. ”
Gan Yongxing laughed, and he picked up another biscuit.
"So should we trust him, or should we not believe him?" Nie Renfeng crossed his hands, "Yongxing, do you remember a class in the military academy?" ”
"What?" Gan Yongxing looked at the principal with some puzzlement.
"When I was a student, I took that course, and when you were a student, I taught it. It is a tradition of the Naval Academy, and only this one subject is taught by the rector himself. Nie Renfeng looked at Gan Yongxing and laughed, signaling Gan Yongxing not to be polite.
"When I was taking this course, the principal told us that fighting is not solving crimes, and the enemy is not criminals. When there is no way to prove the enemy's actions, we have to rely on intuitive judgment rather than collecting evidence. As a battlefield commander, intuitive judgment is very important, especially when there is no other way, the commander's judgment determines not only the fate of his officers and soldiers, but also the victory or defeat of the battle, the victory or defeat of the war. ”
"Headmaster, I know, this is a 'tactical reasoning' lesson, right?"
Nie Renfeng nodded slightly. "I have been teaching this course for 20 years, and in each world, I have passed on the words of the old principal to the students as they were.
Gan Yongxing also pondered, and he also remembered very well what the principal said when he gave them this class.
"As far as I can remember, Renhao's course got a perfect score." Nie Renfeng let go of his hands, "So, should we trust his intuitive judgment now, or should we wait for objective evidence?" ”
"Headmaster, this ......"
"You should know very well that since I became the commander of the navy, I have been reusing Tan Renhao. You two are my most valued students, and you are the generals who know the most about naval tactics, you are good at fleet decisive battles, and Tan Renhao is good at aviation operations. Nie Renfeng stood up, and his expression sank, "In the past few years, Tan Renhao has almost never failed on the battlefield, his performance can be said to be beyond everyone's expectations, I didn't expect that a young man in his twenties could reach such a height, and a few decades ago, no one would have believed that there would be a naval general younger than Marshal Yuan Haoyi." I have carefully analyzed every battle he commanded, and I believe you have done the same work, what kind of general do you think Ren Hao is? ”
Gan Yongxing thought for a while and said: "He is very good at taking risks, he can even be said to be a gambler, and before each adventure, he will accurately calculate the possible price and the possible return, simply put, the return ratio." And every time he takes an adventure, the payoff ratio will definitely be great. In addition, he often did not follow the rules we agreed upon on the battlefield, often employing some unexpected tactics, and almost always succeeded. ”
"In other words, he attaches great importance to direct judgment, and does not attach too much importance to objective factors, especially when those objective factors are doubtful and contrary to common etiquette, he will never easily give up the intuitive judgment of the loom, right?"
Gan Yongxing nodded slightly, that's for sure.
"What's more, his intuitive judgment is almost always correct every time, and he has used that judgment several times to win, isn't it?"
Gan Yongxing nodded again, Tan Renhao's record is there.
"So, do we believe him, or do we believe the information we have received before?"
Gan Yongxing was stunned for a moment and said: "Principal, a lot of this information is provided by our people, not by the Military Intelligence Agency, and it is ......."
"And we've all confirmed it, haven't we?" Nie Renfeng laughed and asked Gan Yongxing to sit down, "So, let's do a reverse reasoning, if you were Nimitz, how would you command this counterattack." ”
"Nimitz is not the commander-in-chief ...... this operation"
"He is the commander-in-chief of the Pacific Fleet, and the counterattack of the Pacific Fleet must have been planned by him, but when it was carried out. It is possible that MacArthur will be in command. ”
Nie Renfeng also sat down, "Even if this is a mission arranged by the President of the United States, then it is Nimitz who specifically plans the combat operation." And not the president of the United States. ”
Gan Yongxing laughed. "Headmaster, you're going to play Nimitz?"
"Nope. I want you to put yourself in Nimitz's shoes and consider this counterattack from the perspective of the overall situation in the Pacific theater.
Gan Yongxing didn't say anything, and then quickly thought about it. Before, he didn't think about it seriously, and when he made a strategic counterattack arrangement according to the thinking of the commander-in-chief of the Pacific Fleet of the US Navy. He suddenly discovered that Tan Renhao's warning was not unreasonable, but very reasonable.
Seeing Gan Yongxing's expression change, Nie Renfeng laughed slightly. Whether it is Gan Yongxing or Tan Renhao, in Nie Renfeng's eyes, he has always been his student.
"Headmaster, I'm going to inform Task Force 2 immediately, do you want to transfer Task Force 1 back?"
"Think again." Nie Renfeng pressed his hand, "Think about it carefully." When Nimitz was making a battle plan, he would have thought about how much we might guess his arrangement, then.
What kind of deployment will he make? ”
Gan Yongxing hesitated. "Headmaster, what do you mean ......"
"This tactic is actually very simple, but the problem is. If there is a part of our intelligence that is correct and the most critical part. And Nimitz had to follow the president's will when formulating the battle plan, so what would he do? ”
Gan Yongxing thought about it. This is indeed a difficult question to answer.
"True and false, false and true. Nimitz is a tough enemy to deal with, and he'll leave us in the wrong direction. Nie Renfeng let go of his hands, paused for a while, and said, "Then, his best way is not to choose the key point at all, at least not to choose the key point before the battle starts, and then make a decision according to the actual situation on the battlefield." Ren Hao's warning was very reasonable, maybe there was a powerful fleet ambushing near Midway now, ready to sneak up on Task Force 2. But at the same time, the main force of the US military still went to the southwest Pacific, as long as the sneak attack in the north was successful, or the counterattack in the southwest Pacific was successful, then Nimitz's goal was achieved. When the time comes, we will not be able to take care of the end, and we will only be able to passively meet the battle in any direction, and the results can be imagined. ”
"In other words, the U.S. military has not yet determined the focus, and is only a temporary deployment based on the war situation?"
"yes, so what should we do?" Nie Renfeng's face suddenly became grim, "Passive defense is very unfavorable to us, if we can grasp the initiative in the battle, then we have the certainty of victory." ”
Gan Yongxing nodded slightly. "Then I will immediately contact Lei Shaoqing and ask the Second Task Force to be vigilant, if we can capture Midway, then the situation will be in our favor.
"Tell Liao Hanxiang to take Midway at all costs." Nie Renfeng stood up, "While the Second Task Force is raising its vigilance, it will try its best to provide assistance to the Marine Corps, and those reconnaissance planes deployed to Midway Island will also assist the Second Task Force." Send a telegram to Tan Renhao and ask them to deal with it carefully, the main fleet of the US army is still very likely to appear in the southwest Pacific, so their side is still the main battlefield. ”
After sending Nie Renfeng out of the naval headquarters, Gan Yongxing immediately sent a telegram, and finally talked to Liao Hanxiang on the phone, promising to provide a batch of reinforcements to the Pacific Theater as soon as possible.
Tan Renhao was discussing with Chang Jianxin what to do and whether to directly warn Lei Shaoqing, when Gan Yongxing's second telegram came. After reading the telegram, the two of them finally relaxed a little.
"At least Task Force 2 will be prepared." After walking out of the headquarters, neither of them wanted to go to sleep, and Chang Jianxin was smoking again.
"Shaoqing should be alert." Tan Renhao sighed secretly, "Judging from this telegram, the principal and chief of staff still believe that the main direction of the US military's counterattack is in the southwest Pacific, but I always feel that there is a problem. ”
"What's the problem? To start with what we are talking about? ”
"No, think about it, Shaoqing may be easily defeated? If it had been a year ago, I might have been worried, but now I think that if he faced an opponent of equal strength, even if it was a fleet commanded by Spruance, it might be difficult for him to take out the opponent, but at least he would be able to deal with it. Tan Renhao slowed down, "The commander of the US army should be clear about the strength of the Second Task Force, and he should be clear about Lei Shaoqing's ability." Even if Spruance were to command the Fifth Fleet, he would have to surpass the Second Task Force. Judging from the information we have now, how many aircraft carriers does the US military have? A maximum of six small aircraft carriers, which is at most the same as the two fleet aircraft carriers of the Second Task Force, and now that the Second Task Force has been reinforced by two small aircraft carriers, is the US military a little too small in the Central Pacific? ”
"You're saying that it's very likely that the U.S. military will leave its main forces in the Central Pacific?"
"I think the U.S. military has at least two or three fleet aircraft carriers in the Central Pacific, and it's very likely that their main force is really difficult."
Chang Jianxin nodded slightly. "Then Task Force 2 is more dangerous now."
"If Spruance still has a few small aircraft carriers in his hands, I'm afraid Task Force 2 will be really dangerous." Tan Renhao sighed, "Okay, let's not speculate too much, tomorrow we will discuss the battle plan with Yan Guozhong and Huang Xiaotian, and after it is determined, we will think about how to fight." ”
After saying goodbye, the two went back to their accommodations. All night, Tan Renhao didn't fall asleep, he was thinking about this combat operation repeatedly, and the first thing he thought of was, if the intention of the US military was to isolate the second task force and destroy it alone, then how many troops would the US military need to mobilize?
This is critical because the number of U.S. troops remaining in the Central Pacific actually determines the size of its forces in the Southwest Pacific. If the U.S. military has mastered the exact size of the second task force now, then Spruance needs at least three fleet carriers, and if the sneak attack is to be successful, then Spruance will have at least three more small aircraft carriers. That is, in order to ensure victory, the US military may have three fleet aircraft carriers, three small aircraft carriers in the Central Pacific. Then, in fact, there are only three fleet aircraft carriers and six small aircraft carriers in the fleet going south.
Thinking about it, Tan Renhao felt that the situation in front of him was gradually becoming clearer, perhaps, the battle situation was different from what everyone had guessed before.