Chapter 70: Xiao Mubai's Analysis
Regarding Cai Yi's "Five Provinces Border Defense Plan" book, Xiao Mubai still agrees with it in his heart. Pen, fun, pavilion www. biquge。 As a traveler, he clearly knows how strong the British and French powers coveted southwest China, as far away as Jiangxinpo in Yunnan, near Pianma and other regional events, as well as a series of events that did not occur at this time, such as the rebellion against the expulsion of Han Chinese in Tibet during the Xinhai Revolution in parallel time and space, and the McMahon Line after that.
Of course, Xiao Mubai also clearly knew the attitude of the Western powers towards the Chinese revolution at this time. There will be limited involvement, but no direct armed intervention.
Throughout the Xinhai Revolution, the foreign powers were guided by the principle of protecting their own vested interests and seizing the opportunity to expand new rights and interests. Proceeding from this principle, at the beginning of the Wuchang Uprising, the foreign powers all sided with the Qing Dynasty, which was in power, and adopted a defensive and hostile attitude towards the armed uprising of the revolutionaries. In the later period, the principle of "strict neutrality" was adopted. Of course, because the Great Powers had different interests in China, their attitudes towards the uprising were different. As soon as Yuan Shikai came out of the mountain, all the powers turned to support Yuan Shikai.
Putting down the plan in his hand, looking at Cai Yi who was sitting upright on the sofa next to him, he groaned for a while, and Xiao Mubai finally spoke.
"Songpa, in principle, I still agree with the plan you submitted."
Hearing Xiao Mubai's words, Cai Yi's expression was lifted, and he said excitedly: "Since this is the case, I don't know if it can be implemented?" ”
"Songpo, don't worry, wait until I'm done." Xiao Mubai shook his hand.
"Okay, Chief of the General Staff, you say it, I'll listen."
"Frankly speaking, from a purely military point of view, it is very good, and it perfectly embodies the strategic thinking of the theater. However, as a high-ranking general, there is a saying that you must understand that military is a continuation of politics. Xiao Mubai looked solemn and frowned.
Regarding Xiao Mubai's words, Cai Ye listened attentively, military is the continuation of politics, and he has also heard this sentence, the original words are from Clausewitz's "On War".
Seeing Cai Yi nodded, Xiao Mubai continued: "The situation in the southwest border area is complicated and has been around for a long time, which is caused by historical reasons. Now that there is a revolution in the country, the great powers will take advantage of it, and you are not wrong in your judgment, and the planned response is very good, but you have overlooked the most important part of it, which is politics. ”
"Oh?" Cai Ye was a little puzzled now, he was a pure soldier.
"Hehe, this has to start with the international and domestic situation in recent years, as well as the attitude of the great powers towards China."
"I want to hear about it." Cai Yi is colorful.
"Let's start with the attitude of the great powers towards China after the uprising in our country." Seeing Cai Ye with a focused expression, Xiao Mubai continued: "Judging from the overall international situation, the current situation in Europe is tense, and the Anglo-French-Russian Entente group led by Britain and the German-Austrian alliance group led by Germany are making every effort to prepare for a war in order to re-divide interests. The two major military blocs sharpened their knives and showed signs of drawing their guns against each other if they disagreed, and the clouds of war hung over Europe, which can be described by the phrase black clouds crushing cities and trying to destroy them. In order to resist Germany, Britain is now adopting a defensive policy in Asia that maintains the status quo for the time being. In order not to give countries such as Japan and Germany the opportunity to expand their influence in the Yangtze River valley, Britain has always adopted the principle of neutrality since the revolution. At present, it will not directly send troops to interfere in China's internal affairs, nor will it allow other countries to send troops to China. France and Russia, as Britain's military allies, are bound to be in line with Britain on this series of major issues, and will not insist on going their own way. ”
"Besides, Japan, for geopolitical reasons, as a close neighbor of China, is most concerned about the development of the revolutionary situation in our country. Since China's defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War, Japan's aggression against China and its demands for interests have further intensified, as can be seen from the fact that Japan and Russia fought in China's northeast. Now that there is a revolution in our country, it is obvious that Japan is happy to see the civil strife in China, and this is really a good opportunity for them to expand their influence in China. Although it wants to intervene, Britain obviously does not want to see this. ”
Regarding Xiao Mubai's point of view, Cai Ye listened very carefully, and couldn't help nodding in agreement. Not to mention, according to the current domestic situation, the great powers really have this attitude.
"Speaking of Germany, after the outbreak of the revolution, Germany's inclination towards the Manchu government was the most obvious. Because the hearts of the people of the whole country are oriented towards revolution and the people's hearts are turned against each other, revolutions have taken place in various provinces to declare independence, and the current situation in the country is unfavorable to the Qing government. The reason why Germany helped the Qing government was to strengthen the power of the Qing government, so that the war in China could persist for a long time, and further contain the power of the British and French allies in the east. Of course, this is only temporary, and it does not want other countries to further strengthen their influence in China. As for the United States, this is a country where interests come first and is the most realistic, and all it wants is more economic benefits, and as for armed intervention, it is obvious that they will not do it. ”
After Xiao Mubai talked a lot, he picked up the teacup on the table and drank it, and after talking for such a long time, Xiao Mubai's throat was a little dry.
"Listening to your words is better than reading a book for ten years, this sentence is indeed true. Zicheng's words just now made me feel deafening" Cai Yi groaned for a while, and carefully recalled Xiao Mubai's words just now, raised his head and said.
"Hehe, Songpa laughed. This is just a little bit of my opinion. ”
"Zicheng, you don't have to be so modest, so far, the six great powers have each shown their desire not to intervene. If you look at it this way, your analysis is correct. Cai Yi nodded, and then frowned: "Although this is the case, but now our southwest border is full of dangers, and the border area of Britain and France is obviously ill-intentioned, should we also prepare accordingly." “
"Well, Songpo, you are right, although because of the conflict of interests of the great powers in China and the situation of their struggle in Europe, they will not intervene with large-scale armed forces, but some small actions will not be less, and we must still make preparations." Xiao Mubai is colorful.
"Then I can rest assured, no matter what, we must not let the land be lost from us, otherwise we will become sinners of the nation."
"Hehe, do you think I put the fifth and sixth divisions in western and southern Yunnan as decorations! On the territorial issue, we will not give up an inch. ”
Hearing Xiao Mubai's words, Cai Ye suddenly realized, no wonder these two divisions stayed there during the Northern Expedition, it turned out to be because of this reason. Previously, he was also puzzled by this, if he had these two divisions, Guangdong and Hunan would have been taken down, it is said that Xiao Mubai would not have made such a low-level mistake, it turned out that the roots were here, and he didn't expect that he had already arranged them in advance.
At this time, Cai Ye already had a preliminary understanding of Xiao Mubai, this is a person who puts the interests of the nation first, and at the same time, a strong respect rose in his heart.
"However, this is far from enough, the Sichuan border area is close to the Tibetan area, the situation is more complicated, since the former Sichuan governor Zhao Erfeng pacified, although there are no big waves, but the Tusi leaders around the country are small moves. Tibet is also close to British India, and what is most feared is that the British will stir up trouble in Tibet. ”
"What Zicheng said is that now there are only 3,000 border troops left by Zhao Erfeng in the Sichuanbian area, and the military strength is extremely weak, do we choose to send capable troops to this area?" As soon as he heard Xiao Mubai talk about business, Cai Ye immediately entered the state.
"This is a must, but now our defense is too much, and the troops are a little tight, and there are no extra troops to send for a while." Speaking of this, Xiao Mubai also smiled wryly.
After taking up the post of commander of the Southwest Military Region, Cai Ye has made a lot of efforts to the strength of the Communist Party, and he knows that Xiao Mubai is telling the truth. So he tried to open his mouth and asked, "Why don't you train a new unit?" ”
"It can be, that is, three or four new divisions can be formed, and the funds and equipment can be guaranteed, but there is a serious shortage of officers." Xiao Mubai looked helpless.
"Zicheng, do you think this is okay? How about expanding to the Seventh Division on the basis of the original 3,000 border army? Cai Yi chose a compromise method, after all, officers are not something that can be trained in a short period of time.
"That's okay, expanding a division, and the officers are barely enough." Xiao Mubai nodded in agreement.
After the matter was decided, Cai Ye said goodbye and left, after all, Xiao Mubai still had a lot of important military and political affairs to deal with.