Chapter 458: Probability

"Although the final victory or defeat is the key to determining the reputation of you and Emperor Chongzhen, your decision itself has an impact on the outcome of the victory, and then it can also have an indirect impact on the reputation of you and Emperor Chongzhen. Pen Fun Pavilion www.biquge.info" Lin Yi couldn't agree with Xiao Mu's final conclusion, "How can it be said that it doesn't matter?" ”

"But the crux of the matter is that the decision on whether or not Yuan Chonghuan and his army should be allowed to enter the city is not so significantly related to the outcome of the war - I allowed the army to enter the city, perhaps because the army has been repaired and its combat effectiveness has been improved, which has led to the victory of the war, or it may have been due to the defeat of the war because of the camp roar; It's the same thing that I don't allow them to enter the city, and it can lead to victory in the war, and it can lead to defeat in the war. Xiao Mu continued to analyze, "So no matter what decision I make, there is no guarantee that the war will be won or lost, since this decision cannot determine the victory or defeat of victory, it will naturally not determine the reputation of me and Emperor Chongzhen in the history of later generations." ”

The discussion between Xiao Mu and Lin Ye on the topic of the relationship between decision, war, and fame could finally come to an end here, and this time the discussion went on to a very deep levelβ€”Xiao Mu was sure that even if anyone other than the two of them heard the conversation between them at this time, he probably wouldn't understand what was being discussed between them at all.

As a result of the discussion, Lin Yi finally understood and accepted Xiao Mu's point of view, that is, the decision of whether or not to allow the army to enter the city for repairs this time did not directly lead to good or bad results.

"So, in that case, what are you going to do?" Lin Yi asked, it was obvious that although the two of them had reached a consensus on this issue, Xiao Mu still had to make this decision in the end, what Lin Ye wanted to know now was Xiao Mu's final decision.

"Since there is no obvious direct connection between my decision and the outcome of the war, I naturally don't need to think about it so much." Xiao Mu replied, "Anyway, no matter what I decide, it may lead to victory or defeat in the war, so why don't I do what I originally thought?" In this way, even if the war is really lost in the end, I can be convinced, and there will be no other regrets, regrets, unwillingness, and other emotions. ”

"So you mean that you plan to agree to Yuan Chonghuan's request and let them lead the army into the city for repairs?" Lin Yi could already hear what he meant from Xiao Mu's words, but he finally confirmed it.

"Yes, I plan to make this decision according to my own ideas, and my original idea was to let the Ming army repair in the city of Daming, rest and eat in Daming's own military camp. Instead of enjoying the same treatment as the enemy's army, sleeping in tents. Xiao Mu nodded and gave Lin Ye an affirmative answer, and Lin Ye could hear that Xiao Mu's tone was very firm, and his decision was basically irreversible.

But even so, Lin Yi finally reminded, "It's already midnight, and it is estimated that it has already passed the hour, and the army led by Yuan Chonghuan and them will definitely have no way to enter the city for repairs tonight." With a full night and a day to go to bed tomorrow night, you can think twice before making a final decision. ”

"No need." Xiao Mu waved his hand and said, "Regarding this matter, it took the two of us just so long to finally figure out the essence of the problem, so even if we think about it for another day, the essence of the problem will not change anything, so I definitely won't change my mind." ”

"And." Xiao Mu continued, "When the army enters the city to repair, it is not just as simple as sleeping in the barracks in the city. The sooner I make my decision, the sooner the soldiers of the Ming Dynasty can enter the city, so that they can eat tomorrow's lunch and dinner in the barracks in the city, and they can also find a well in the barracks to wash their bodies and clothes, instead of eating in the open field outside the city and continuing to wear dirty clothes. This is a real repair, and it must be much better than letting them go into the city and sleep directly when it is close to night. ”

"Well, it's true that trimming doesn't just mean sleeping. There is indeed a big difference between letting them into the city tomorrow and letting them into the city tomorrow night. Lin Yi also nodded, agreeing with Xiao Mu's statement just now, "Since you have made the final decision, there is only one thing you need to do now, that is, to think of a good rhetoric, and tomorrow you can persuade the ministers who disapprove of letting Yuan Chonghuan and them lead troops into the city." ”

"This question is not difficult, you must know that I am the one who has the final say." Xiao Mu replied, "We have also analyzed it just now, and the reason for their opposition is only from their speculation that Yuan Chonghuan defected to the enemy, or that Yuan Chonghuan, Hou Shilu, and Man Gui were ineffective in fighting, and there is no real evidence, so in this case, even if they oppose it, they will not be able to put forward any convincing arguments, just like during the day today - since they can't even say the real reason for their opposition, then what else do I have to worry about?" ”

"Take 10,000 steps back." Xiao Mu continued, "Even if the matter of Yuan Chonghuan's fornication with Emperor Taiji that they are worried about is true, then the first to suffer the most damage is undoubtedly me, the emperor of the Ming Dynasty, and even I, the emperor, dare to take this risk, what else do they disagree with?" ”

"So even if Yuan Chonghuan really fornicated with Huang Taiji, you still have to let him lead troops into the city for repairs?" Lin Yi seemed to hear something very important from Xiao Mu's words, so he hurriedly asked.

"I just said '10,000 steps back,' so that's just an analogy." Xiao Mu replied, "Whether it is from the analysis that you and I have just made, or from the historical situation that we already know, Yuan Chonghuan will not have the intention of rebellion - you know, if he really has the intention of rebellion, how could he be killed by Emperor Chongzhen so easily in the original history?" ”

"Well, the probability that Yuan Chonghuan really rebelled is not much different from the probability that we can cross over." Lin Yi replied, "It is impossible for such a small probability event with a probability of almost zero to occur twice in a row. ”