After Cao Cao failed in the Battle of Chibi, he once sighed: "Guo Fengxiao is here, and he will not be lonely." "So is that really the case? If Guo Jia is alive, can he really change the outcome of the Battle of Chibi? Before answering this question, we can first make the opposite hypothesis, if there is no Guo Jia, then what would history be.

[If there is no Guo Jia]

Guo Jia took refuge in Cao Cao in the first year of Jian'an (196). Later, Liu Bei was driven out by Lu Bu and had to take refuge in the Xuchang court, when Cheng Yu advocated the direct removal of Liu Bei, and Guo Jia agreed that Liu Bei had great ambitions, but did not advocate killing Liu Bei, thinking that this would do more harm than good, and Cao Cao also thought like this, so he did not do anything to Liu Bei, but bought horse bones with his daughter, reused Liu Bei as a pastor in Yuzhou, and gave him soldiers and horses grain and grass. So even if Guo Jia is not there, it is unlikely that Cao Cao will directly attack Liu Bei.

Guo Jia's second appearance was when he was in the crusade against Lü Bu, when Cao Cao was about to retreat, but it was Xun You and Guo Jia who persuaded Cao Cao, and Cao Cao finally won the Battle of Xiapi. In other words, if there is no Guo Jia, there is still Xun You.

And when Liu Bei left Cao Cao to go to Xuzhou, although Guo Jia and Cheng Yu's suggestions were correct, they didn't have time. Then Cao Cao decided to fight with Yuan Shao before the decisive battle, determined to sweep away the future trouble Liu Bei, Guo Jia also agreed, this matter from the description in the "Emperor Wu Ji", Cao Cao himself has made up his mind, so even if Guo Jia is not there, Cao Cao will crusade against Xuzhou first, after all, Cao Cao wants to redeem his mistakes.

As for Guo Jia's opinion of Sun Ce, it is indeed very accurate and has become a reality, but if it is not for this assassination planned by Guo Jia, then it is of little actual significance.

After the death of Yuan Shao, Cao Cao led the army to the north, Yuan Tan and Yuan Shang were invincible, and Cao Cao drove all the way from Liyang to the base camp Yecheng, just when Cao Cao's army was ready to take advantage of the victory to pursue and conquer Yecheng in one fell swoop to eliminate the Yuan brothers, Guo Jia persuaded Cao Cao to withdraw from the army, so that Cao Cao lost this great opportunity.

If there is no Guo Jia, Cao Cao is very likely to eliminate Yuan Tan and Yuan Shang in the eighth year of Jian'an (203), and seize Jizhou and Qingzhou in one fell swoop, and the lord of the remaining two states and states Gao Gan surrendered when he saw Cao Cao's strength in history, although he rebelled again later, but he didn't see any ability, and Yuan Xi, the lord of Youzhou, was the worst of the three Yuan brothers, and Cao Cao was driven out of Youzhou by his subordinates before he sent troops in the official history, that is, if there was no Guo Jia, If everything goes well for Cao Cao, he may have basically solved the battle in the north in the eighth year of Jian'an (203).

And at that time, if Cao Cao was going south, Liu Biao was not dead, Sun Quan, who had a grudge against Liu Biao for killing his father, was unlikely to unite with him, and Zhuge Liang on Liu Bei's side did not go out of the mountain, and if he only dealt with a Jingzhou, Cao Cao's chances of victory were very great.

After Cao Cao seized Jizhou, Guo Jia proposed to Cao Cao to recruit and reuse Qing, Hebei, Youzhou, and four prefectures to attract the hearts of the people. This suggestion is very reasonable and has a certain effect, but it has not reached the point where there will be turmoil in the north if Guo Jia does not say this, and the impact is limited.

At that time, Guo Jia thought that the alliance between the Yuan Shang brothers and Wuheng could directly threaten the four northern states, and even reverse the situation, so he suggested that Cao Cao send troops to fight. It is true that Wuheng has invaded the north for a long time, and the Yuan family also has a certain reputation in the north, but no matter how you look at it, it is too late to say that Yuan Shang and Yuan Xi can really threaten Cao Cao, and at that time, Yuan Shang was abused by Cao Cao in the north, and Yuan Xi and Cao Cao didn't have to make a move. As for Wuheng, in the entire Three Kingdoms era, only the Han people in the Central Plains abused foreign races, and Cao Wei only lost once against foreign races in history, with a victory rate of more than 90%.

Moreover, during the crusade against Wuheng, Guo Jia suggested that Cao Cao leave his baggage in Yicheng and travel lightly, which was also proved wrong later, and then Cao's army was short of supplies and was forced to kill horses, which may be related to Guo Jia's proposal. Guo Jia thought that Cao Cao's troops could achieve a surprise effect and did not see it, because Wu Heng was far away outside the plug at that time, and the Cao army from the Central Plains was not familiar with the local geographical environment, so Cao Cao's march quickly attracted the attention of the Wuheng people, at first it was not the effect of the response, and then Cao Cao pretended to retreat from the army, and attacked by a detour at the suggestion of Tian Chou, which surprised the people of Wuheng.

Cao Cao spent a full six years after Yuan Shao's death in order to pacify the north in history, from the seventh year of Jian'an (202) to the twelfth year of Jian'an (207), this period was also an active period for Guo Jia, but despite the vast territory of the four northern states, is it really so difficult to fight in the case of Yuan's internal carry? If it weren't for Guo Jia, Cao Cao's seizure of the north would probably not have lasted as long as six years.

Therefore, Guo Jia never proved that he was necessary for the Cao Cao Group when he was alive.

【Acquaintance of Monarchs and Ministers】

Among the many strategists under Cao Cao, Guo Jia knew Cao Cao's mind the most, and Cao Cao commented on Guo Jia like this: "Only filial piety can know loneliness." This is also historically true.

On the issue of treating Liu Bei, Cao Cao believed: "When Fang Jin collects heroes, it is not okay to kill one person and lose the heart of the world." Guo Jia also said: "Yes. However, the public raised the sword to rebel against the people, eliminated the violence for the people, and promoted sincerity and faith to recruit Junjie, and he was afraid of it. Now there is a heroic name, to return the poor to oneself and harm it, in the name of harming the virtuous, then the wise man will doubt himself, return to his heart to choose the master, who is the public and the world? In addition to the trouble of one person, the hope of the whole world is frustrated, and the opportunity for safety must not be ignored! ”

When Liu Bei rebelled and Cao Cao was preparing to crusade against Xuzhou, most of the generals did not agree, so Cao Cao said: "Husband Liu Bei, a master, if you don't attack today, you will be troubled in the future." Although Yuan Shao has great ambitions, he will not move when he sees things late. Guo Jia also has the same view: "Shao is late and suspicious, and he will not come quickly." Prepare for a new start, the hearts of the people are not attached, and the rapid attack will be defeated. This existential opportunity cannot be missed. ”

On the issue of whether to go north or south first, Guo Jia also had a very tacit understanding with Cao Cao, both of them wanted to crusade against Liu Biao in the south first, and later Guo Jia vigorously supported Cao Cao's crusade against Wuheng. Of course, Guo Jia also disagreed with Cao Cao, and when Cao Cao wanted to withdraw from the army, he was blocked by Guo Jia.

At that time, Cao Cao and Guo Jia had a very close relationship, and the two of them were in the same car and sat at the same table. Guo Jia also has a lot of unconventional behavior, so he was also played by Chen Qun, and Cao Cao praised Chen Qun for his meritorious reporting, but on the other hand, he ignored Guo Jia. Their relationship was so harmonious at the time.

It is a good thing for monarchs and ministers to know each other, and Guo Jia was also reused by Cao Cao, perhaps because of this, Cao Cao missed his Guo Jia after the defeat of Chibi, but only this still does not mean that Guo Jia can change the outcome of the Battle of Chibi, first of all, Guo Jia has not been able to prove in history that he has the ability to change the outcome of the Battle of Chibi, and secondly, Guo Jia and Cao Cao are not good at water warfare, and Guo Jia's performance in an unfamiliar environment is not very good, such as when crusading against Wuheng, Guo Jia's proposal backfired because of the impact of the environment, in the end, who can guarantee that Guo Jia will not mess around with Cao Cao?

Guo Jia did not prove himself in the decisive battle (the Battle of Guandu), nor did he prove himself in an unfamiliar environment (the crusade against Wuheng), and the Battle of Chibi was precisely a decisive battle on a par with Guandu, and it was also a water battle that was unfamiliar to the northerners.