Roosevelt's old classmate William. Joseph. Colonel Donovan returned to wartime London in early July. At a time when the whole of Europe seemed to be subject to the feet of the German Empire, only the islanders of London and the rest of Britain had no intention of yielding.

But Colonel Donovan, who returned to England, was very surprised, not by the tense wartime atmosphere in London, but by the peace and quiet of London. Compared to London, when France was about to fall in May, the smell of gunpowder in the city was not stronger but almost dissipated.

There were no trucks tethered to balloons outside No. 10 Downing Street, anti-aircraft guns in nearby squares had been removed, and there were no crashed planes or buildings that had just been bombed in the city, only some road sweepers were diligently clearing the leaflets dropped by German planes last night -- since late May, the harassing bombing between Britain and Germany has stopped dropping real bombs, but has instead dropped "paper bombs." Every night, several Ju.88 bombers burst in from an altitude of 8,000 meters, dropped tons of paper bombs that had no lethal power, and then swaggered away. British Wellington bombers also went to Berlin every night to drop leaflets.

Colonel Donovan picked up a leaflet that hadn't been cleaned up and looked at it as he walked. The Germans claimed on leaflets that they had large strategic oil reserves and advanced synthetic gasoline technology that could fully meet the fuel needs of the whole of Europe. At the same time, the Germans announced the results of a joint effort between submarines and airplanes that made everyone shudder - they sank 88 British merchant ships throughout the month of June, not counting the number sunk by mines!

On the one hand, sanctions against the EU and blockade of Germany and Italy, and on the other hand, submarines break diplomatic relations and blockade the UK. Did the Second World War depend on the blockade?

With this in mind, Colonel Donovan walked into 10 Downing Street, and was led by a secretary in the Prime Minister's office to a room with a large schematic diagram of the position of the fleet hanging on the wall. Colourful little pushpins are scattered across the Mediterranean, Persian Gulf and Indian Oceans, but dense around the British Isles. There are also a number of pins connected together in a thin line marking the transatlantic shipping route. The British Prime Minister stands in front of this diagram with two elderly men in military uniforms.

Seeing Donovan walk in, Churchill pointed to the thin line on the map with his cigar and said, "Colonel, the situation is obvious now, and here is the key to determining the victory or defeat of the world." In case the Germans cut off this place before their own supplies run out, we are finished. ”

Unlike in history, Hersmann's German strategy did not include the option of flattening Britain or landing in England. Now the method used by Hersman to deal with Britain is one - to break diplomatic relations!

Before the defeat of France, the task of breaking diplomatic relations was mainly carried out by submarines, but after the Germans took over Brest on the Brittany Peninsula, the Fw-200 and He-115, as well as the Fokker Zero, joined the operation.

Now the latest tactic of the Germans is to use the long-range Fw-200C3 reconnaissance/maritime patrol aircraft to conduct reconnaissance in the Atlantic, 1000 kilometers northwest of Brest. When the Fw-200C3 spotted the British convoy, it would call the submarine and the He-115 torpedo bombers and Fokker Zero fighters (as escorts) from the submarine and the Brest base to attack.

This tactic was extremely successful in late June. On June 24, a convoy of 48 merchant ships and 12 destroyers was attacked by German aircraft and submarines in the waters west of Ireland, losing 29 merchant ships and 4 destroyers, and another 10 merchant ships and 3 destroyers were damaged to varying degrees!

As a result, the British Admiralty had to keep the convoy moving further north and to enter the waters west of Scotland, also within the combat radius of the He-115 and Fokker Zero, after dark.

But passing through that not very wide sea area at night was very vulnerable to being sunk and injured by mines (laid by Fw-200s and German submarines), and the losses were also shocking.

And the huge losses at sea are also the reasons why Churchill chose to sanction the EU and ban the import of strategic materials (oil, steel, grain, cotton, rubber, non-ferrous metals, etc.) regardless of the risk of a neutral European country falling to Germany. Therefore, the countries that have joined the European Customs Union are Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway (Quisling became the Prime Minister of Norway after the Battle of France), Denmark, Finland, Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, Galicia-Ukraine, Slovakia, and 12 other countries.

Due to British sanctions and blockades, none of the 12 countries can now import goods by sea. As a result, Germany could only afford to supply the entire European Customs Union with its strategic reserves stored before the war and from imports from resource-exporting countries such as the Soviet Union, Romania, and Turkey.

However, Germany in this time and space accumulated a large amount of reserves before the war through Soviet-German cooperation and barter trade, and the oil reserves alone were as high as 20 million tons before the outbreak of the war (in the Western Front campaign, Germany also grabbed the oil reserves of France, Belgium, Luxembourg and other countries)!

In addition, Germany now produces 5 million tons of synthetic fuel and more than 100,000 tons of shale oil every year. The USSR supplied Germany with another 250,000 tons of oil per month (the USSR reduced oil supplies after the events in Batumi). Moreover, Germany also controls the oil fields in Poland, Western Ukraine and other places, and can get 780,000 tons of oil every year, while the large oil fields in Romania are also about to fall into the hands of Germany...... In total, more than 10 million tons of various oils can be obtained every year, which is enough to meet Germany's wartime needs.

As a result, Germany is now able to rely on the release of strategic reserves to maintain the basic consumption of oil in the countries of the European Customs Union. Other resources that need to be imported from outside Europe can also be sustained for a period of time by strategic reserves.

So Churchill's blockade, if it could bring down Germany, would be a few years later. And Britain itself is very likely to fall first because of the German submarine + aircraft breaking tactics.

"It's not over, it's time for us to join." Donovan said with a smile, "The results of the Republican primaries show that the American people do not want to see Germany dominate the world, and it is only a matter of time before they are fully involved." But in my opinion, it's not just the thin line across the Atlantic that determines fate. It's the next offensive for the Germans, and if the Germans get enough oil, non-ferrous metals, and food, I think even if we join, it will be very difficult to liberate the European continent from them. ”

The problem Donovan said was actually the opinion of Roosevelt and the think-tank advisers around him. The European continent is no less industrially powerful than the United States, and its population is much larger than that of Britain and the United States, and its weakness is the short-term resources, especially oil, which is very dependent on imports, and grain, cotton, and non-ferrous metals are also insufficient.

If Germany can solve the problem of supplying resources to Europe, it will be difficult for the United States to win even if it enters the war.

Churchill took a few puffs of his cigarette, a hint of melancholy appeared on his fat face, and he said: "You mean the danger in the direction of North Africa and the Mediterranean, right?" That's right, it's very dangerous there. We don't have enough troops there, and in North and Northeast Africa we have only about 100,000 men, some of whom are Indians. And the Italians probably had more than 500,000 troops there, and they would also be supported by the Germans. Fortunately, we bombed the port of Toulon in May, temporarily paralyzing the French fleet, and we will be able to maintain sea supremacy in the Mediterranean for at least the next 12 months.

In addition, the mistakes made by the Germans in the Balkans may well help us. Colonel, do you think it is possible for the Serbs to rebel against the German ruling? If they were willing to resist, they might be able to hold back the Germans...... Yugoslavia, after all, had a relatively large army. ”

Donovan had just visited Belgrade, the capital of Yugoslavia, and had met the young and vigorous King Peter II. This king and the Yugoslav military, as well as most of the Serbs, were categorically opposed to the Geneva Verdict.

The regent in power, Prince Paul, was torn between knowing that Yugoslavia was powerless to resist Germany and fearing that his compromise would lead to death. Therefore, after his return from Geneva, he took a line of "fake resistance, real surrender". In the name of defending Belgrade, Yugoslav troops were transferred from Croatia and Slovenia and then deployed to Vojvodina (the gateway to the north of Belgrade). At the same time, he also began to purge the Yugoslav army of Croats and Slovenes, nominally to purify the army, but in reality to draw a line with Croatia and Slovenia, and then let these two provinces secede from Yugoslavia on their own.

"Prime Minister," said Donovan, frowning, "most of the Serbs are willing to resist, but the problem is that Yugoslavia is located in a very remote position, and its coastline is in the Adriatic Sea, which is completely controlled by the Italian navy. Without outside assistance, the Serbs could not hold on. ”

"There will be a way," said Churchill, grinning slyly, as he continued, "I have just received very reliable information that the Italian leader is plotting an invasion of Greece." The Serbs only need to endure for two or three months, and we will be able to fight alongside them. (To be continued.) )