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86_86661The main purpose of General David's visit to Hainan was to make a tentative visit to Hainan. In view of the development of Hainan www.biquge.info we hope to have some cooperation in the region.

Chen Zhong also knows very well that the Americans are by no means a thing in the pool, and it must be the United States that will eventually replace Britain as the world hegemon.

Americans are very smart, China is just a sleeping lion, in the history of this lion has had imperial glory, no country or nation can compare.

This lion will wake up one day, and it is not something that a powerful military empire can conquer by force. Japan, which is trying to annex China, will one day taste the bitter sake brewed by its inadequacy.

The clever Americans, with their extremely sensitive and forward-looking sense of smell, have made a detailed assessment of the various forces in China, and they are more willing to believe that China will undergo tremendous changes in ten years, and that the one that can change China's history is this small Hainan Island, which is not yet noticed.

As a result, the Americans brought an agreement to sell some machinery, investment in steel technology, and strategic advice.

David and Chen Zhong discussed the strategic direction of Hainan's development, and also put forward some countries' experience for reference.

When talking about Germany, they focused on analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of the ups and downs of German policy in recent years.

Germany's development is the first in terms of strategic goals that go beyond the reach of the country. The grand strategic objectives, that is, the national strategic objectives, are the goals and standards to be achieved within a certain period of time determined by the state, and embody the fundamental interests and direction of the country's struggle in a concentrated manner. It is at the heart and head of many elements of grand strategy.

The goal is correct, and the overall situation is alive; The goal is wrong, and the whole game is lost. As George Marshall said, "Even a lieutenant can strategize with the right goals." ”

When determining the grand strategic goal, it is necessary to consider the balance of many factors, and the most important thing is the balance between the goal to be achieved and the strength. Historically, there have been many examples of wars that have been lost because the objectives were too large to support the forces.

In 1871, after Bismarck achieved the unification of Germany after three dynastic wars, he carefully formulated the so-called "continental policy" and established the grand strategic goal of achieving "a continental balance in favor of Germany". This goal was formulated on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the balance of forces and the strategic trends of various European countries, and is quite scientific and reasonable.

However, in March 1890, after Kaiser Wilhelm II forced Bismarck to resign, he began to make a series of adjustments to Germany's domestic and foreign policies, especially after the reorganization of the cabinet in 1897, people with strong expansionist ideas entered the cabinet to hold important positions, adjusted Bismarck's "continental policy" to "world policy", and put forward the strategic goal of establishing a "world empire".

The strategic adjustments made by Wilhelm II were mainly based on an overestimation of Germany's overall national strength. It is true that at the end of the last century, Germany's economy developed rapidly, and its total industrial output "surpassed Britain and caught up with the United States", ranking second in the world, especially emerging industries such as electric power and chemicals.

However, in terms of overall national strength, especially international mobilization and war potential, Britain, an old colonial power, is still the world's leader. In fact, Germany's colonies were less than one-tenth the size of Britain. Although the naval power has developed rapidly, it is still far behind the United Kingdom, which regards the navy as its lifeline. Moreover, the establishment of this goal is tantamount to a challenge to the "international order that favors the old and old powers."

No matter how powerful your country is, if you are an enemy of the world's major powers, you will inevitably lose the fate. It can be said that a series of later strategic mistakes of Wilhelm II were all related to the excessive strategic goals. This was the main reason for Germany's defeat in the First World War, and it was also the greatest strategic mistake.

Germany's second strategic mistake was its failure to understand its core interests. National interests refer to the collection of factors that meet the needs of a country's survival, development, and security, and are the fundamental factors that determine the development of military strength.

From the perspective of historical experience, national interests can be divided into deep national interests and superficial national interests. Deep state interests refer to interests that are related to the long-term survival and development of the country, and must be pursued with all efforts. Superficial national interests mainly refer to short-term interests that do not affect the long-term survival and development of the country.

Sometimes, in order to preserve the interests of the deep state, the superficial national interests can be shelved or even sacrificed. Sometimes, due to the constraints of the general environment, even if it is a deep national interest, it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of the method and realize it gradually in an indirect and prudent way.

Facts have shown that at the critical moment of historical turning point, it is a complex strategic question which are the deep national interests and which are the superficial national interests.

In the middle of the 19th century, Bismarck believed that reunification was Germany's deep national interest, and that reunification was above all else. For this reason, when the Prussian army won a great victory at the Battle of Sadova and the ancient capital of Vienna had opened its doors, Bismarck resolutely opposed the march to Vienna and strongly advocated the signing of an armistice with Austria, which created conditions to ensure Austria's neutrality in the upcoming Franco-Prussian War. For this reason, he did not hesitate to threaten his resignation to force King William I of Prussia and the military to make concessions.

Because Bismarck realized that the main enemy of German reunification was not Austria, but France.

In recent years, there has been a great deal of disagreement among all circles in Germany about its national interests. For Germany, in the face of the treacherous situation of France and Russia, the security of the homeland should come first. The relationship between the native and the colony is the relationship between the skin and the fur. However, various interest groups in Germany have disregarded the overall interests of the country and proceeded from their own narrow interests and needs, thus influencing and interfering with the country's major policy decisions.

The naval faction, represented by Admiral Tirpitz, believed that maritime interests were "a matter of life and death for Germany," strongly advocated the development of the navy, and made all-out preparations for war against Britain. The army faction advocated all-out development of the army, focusing on attacking France.

Financiers and businessmen wanted access to the Balkans, Turkey and the Near East, demanding that Russia be given priority.

The Junker aristocracy of East Prussia demanded that the security of their property be given priority. Batemann-Holweg, then German Chancellor, lamented that the result was "challenging each and hindering the other, and virtually failing to weaken either side in all these processes."

What is even more tragic is that Wilhelm II, as the supreme decision-maker, lacked strategic vision and firm will, lacked a deep understanding of the interests and strategic priorities of the deep state, and was often swayed by narrow interest groups.

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