85 Looking South (5)
Gu Weijun has been tired of negotiating recently, and if the two sides of the negotiation have no common position, according to the words of the rivers and lakes, it is called "not speculating for more than half a sentence". The two sides sat there foaming at the mouth and talked, talking about one thing, "There are profound contradictions between us, and we have to rely on war to solve them!" ”
The Netherlands does not want to talk to China, and recently the Netherlands has also made efforts to launch a public opinion war in Europe, trumpeting that China is the "Yellow Peril" and the main culprit threatening world peace. It's just that Europe and the United States at this time are completely different from those of Europe and the United States 35 years ago. The Soviet Union was ostracized by Europe and the United States, and of course refused to participate in the anti-China movement. Germany welcomed any policy that might attract the attention of Britain and France, and simply "send you to death, I'll make money", and Germany asked the Netherlands if it wanted to buy German weapons and equipment.
The Germans were so enthusiastic, and France, of course, could not let it go. The French had no interest in sending tens of thousands of people to China to die, and there was no problem in selling equipment to the Dutch. France said it could supply the Netherlands with military equipment in any quantity.
The British wanted to maintain the face of the world leader, but the British, like other European countries, did not want to send troops to fight with China's millions of troops on Asian soil. The Netherlands is a European country, and that's right. It's just that the Dutch have all been sold, and the money they sell is not enough to support a bloody war in which millions of soldiers participate.
As for the United States, Roosevelt and the American plutocracy could not find any reason to really stand out for the Netherlands. The Netherlands participated in the anti-Chinese maritime alliance spearheaded by Japan, which was seen by any European or American country as a naked military provocation. It is not inconceivable that the Chinese settle accounts after autumn in this world. The excuse that the United States seized the Spanish-controlled Philippines was still made by the United States itself. The only surprise in this matter is that China acted as a weak country decades ago, but what does this have to do with the United States? Spend huge sums of money to go to war with China? What the United States needs right now is a lot of money to save the American economy.
The key to all this lies in the cost, China's army is difficult to defeat, the navy is not weak, the air force is the first-class air force in Asia, and the cost of a war with China is too high. All countries have determined that this is a war in which there is no point in small-scale intervention, and there is no benefit at all in large-scale intervention. The Dutch's call for a move in Europe was useless, and in desperation, the Dutch ran to Japan and begged for troops.
Without waiting for the Japanese military department to have any ideas, Kita Ichiki spread the news. With regard to the information provided by Kita Ikki, Japan's attitude was exactly the same as that of France and Germany, and Japan was willing to provide any amount of weapons and equipment to the Netherlands on the basis of cash payment. As long as the Netherlands gives enough money, it is no problem to sell the combined fleet to the Netherlands.
Gu Weijun is a very serious person, but after getting these news, he has a feeling of crying and laughing. Before the start of the war, every top brass was uneasy. Only Chen Ke remained as if nothing had happened. After the start of the war, at least in the early stages of the war, the whole situation took on an extremely favorable posture for China. Gu Weijun now understands what a leader is, and a leader is when others can't understand the situation, and he clearly sees the development of the general trend. By the time the leader makes a move, everything is already settled.
Of course, what Gu Weijun admired even more was that Chen Ke did not have the slightest arrogance, and before the war began, Chen Ke had ordered that the war should be completely ended before 1937 no matter what. Since Chen Ke said this, Gu Weijun could only believe what Chen Ke said, "By 1934, the Great Depression had temporarily ended, and at this time all countries were desperately resuming production, and there was no strength to participate in this military conflict between China and the Netherlands. But by 1937 at the latest, the crisis of the late Great Depression would erupt. At that time, the domestic means of each country were exhausted, and either revolution broke out or foreign wars broke out. Our strategic window period is only a little bit of time. ”
Negotiations continued intermittently, and by mid-September 1935, Gu Weijun learned that China had conquered Sulawesi and that a new attack on the islands of New Guinea had begun. The navy of the Dutch, as well as those warships "on loan" from the British, were never involved in the battle. The navy has been cruising between the islands of Java and Sumatra, with Malacca as the center. They look at their posture to prevent China from attacking these areas.
According to Gu Weijun's judgment, this is also the bottom line of the British, and it is absolutely unacceptable that China threatens shipping in the Strait of Malacca. These are also Chen Ke's "relatively optimistic" judgments. China's seizure of Borneo, now a wild land, and the islands west of Borneo would not have led to a bitter military conflict, and the British would not have sat idly by if China wanted to seize the Strait of Malacca, which controlled a key maritime point in the western Pacific.
Gu Weijun knows very well that what China really wants is this piece of land. There is a lot of oil in this land, and it is said that there is an optimistic estimate that the area can produce more than 15 million tons of oil per year, and when combined with the existing production of 15 million tons in China, China can produce more than 30 million tons of oil a year.
According to the more than 20 million tons of oil trade a year between China and the United Kingdom, and the 20 million tons of oil trade between China and the United States, China will be able to supply 70 million tons of oil in the coming year.
Even if he doesn't understand military affairs, Gu Weijun still feels that there is a strong smell of conspiracy in it. A sense of peacekeeping that he couldn't explain made Gu Weijun feel very uncomfortable.
The troops at the front did not think so much, and it was very easy for China not to encounter the enemy at sea. The biggest problem now is not the enemy, but the fact that there are really countless islands in the Dutch East Indies, and these densely packed islands make people dizzy just by looking at the map, even if China only occupies the northern islands, it is very difficult to go around one by one.
If you want to go to the island, you have to use a boat, and the use of a boat will consume oil, and the oil in the stock will soon be greatly insufficient. The commanders at the front suggested that they should gather their forces and move south to take the core of the Dutch East Indies, the islands of Java and Sumatra. This encounters another paradox: if you want to attack, you need to have good military bases, and you need a lot of hydrological data. Running back and forth island by island is again a prerequisite. It's useless to be in a hurry.
The British minister to China is one of the more troublesome ones lately, and there has been no indication in Britain for a long time. The Dutch minister went to the British minister every day to cry about China's tyranny. Combining intelligence from all sides, the British minister came to a very nonsense conclusion. If China is content with the islands it already controls, it will not continue southward. Britain was afraid that they would sell the Netherlands.
If you look at the map, you can see that both Borneo and Sulawesi are surrounded by Britain and the Netherlands. But once China continues to move south, taking Sumatra will be equivalent to controlling half of Malacca. The capture of the island of Java cut off the British from Australia. As long as Britain is not prepared to wade into this troubled water and prepare for an all-out war with China, there is no reason for Britain to stop China from moving south.
Then if you look at the problem from the perspective of Britain's recognition of China's hegemony in the Far East, it will be completely different. Selling Holland was of great interest to the British. As long as China stops at its two large islands and a group of smaller islands, Balikpapan's oil can be considered a temporary benefit that will satisfy China's appetites. In this way, the alliance between Britain and the Netherlands in Southeast Asia was not destroyed, and the islands of Sumatra and Java still formed a defensive line against China's attack on Australia.
It is naturally best if China can withdraw its troops, and even if China does not withdraw its troops, it cannot continue to move south. Selling the Netherlands becomes a rather meaningful option. As for what will happen to China in the future, then we will talk about it later. You must know that 30 years ago, the British fleet was still rampant in the Yangtze River in China. It's not that Britain doesn't want to fight, it's that Britain really doesn't have the strength to fight.
The Dutch governor was certainly not a fool, and the news from everywhere gave him a growing taste of betrayal. The fact that Britain restrained the Netherlands from doing anything to the Chinese in the Dutch East Indies has proved that the British had other intentions. The expulsion of the Chinese and the confiscation of Chinese property will naturally result in a complete tear with China. The British made it clear that they did not want to tear their faces with China.
If the Dutch could decide the development of the world with their own ideas, they would naturally demand that China completely withdraw from the Dutch East Indies, and then pay a large sum of money to the Netherlands. It's just that the Netherlands themselves knew very well that this was unrealistic, and that no war would be fought to this point without a side that had already won a major victory making such concessions to the losing side.
The British expressed their stance privately, and the Dutch authorities remained tough on the surface, imposing a curfew and adopting a superficially high-pressure policy against the Chinese. But that's about it. There have been no large-scale camps of Chinese or confiscation of Chinese property. In internal discussions, the Netherlands has already taken into account the situation when the situation is quite unfavorable.
"According to the situation obtained from the UK, the UK cannot accept China's invasion of the Strait of Malacca, let alone China's interception of the sea lane between the UK and Australia." The Dutch envoy said with a sad face.
Britain did not want to send troops directly, and once the Netherlands killed the Chinese in the Dutch East Indies, the British position of wanting to mediate would only retreat. The Netherlands is not a second-hand country like Japan, which is only interested in taking advantage of any treaty. After all, the Netherlands also worked as a coachman at sea hundreds of years ago, competing with Britain on the sea. Seeing the attitude of the British, the Netherlands already knew that things could not go the way the Dutch wanted it.
"If China meets Britain's conditions, where will the British stand?" The Dutch governor also asked worriedly. The fleet, nominally "lent" to the Netherlands, is now roaming around Malacca. As a former sea coachman, the Dutch side was well aware of what the British thought. As long as Britain reached an agreement with China, the British threw the Dutch flag into the water, and it was as if nothing had happened. All the British care about is Malacca.
"Is that the end of Europe's dominance in Asia?" Said one of the people who attended the meeting.
Hearing this, the faces of the Dutch East Indies authorities became very ugly, half angry, half sad. But things are so cruel, since Britain and Holland are rampant in Asia with strong ships and cannons, they can only kneel in the face of more powerful strong ships and cannons.
On 4 October, the British minister in China finally received instructions from China to "mediate" the matter. To the surprise of the British minister to China, the bottom line at home is to reach a Sino-British agreement on the Western Pacific as much as possible. Even if a certain amount of Dutch interests were ultimately sacrificed, a new covenant of the Western Pacific order would be reached.
The reason why the British domestic directive came as a surprise to the British Minister was that the Minister thought that the directive had come too late. If Britain had been able to respond like this earlier, the situation in the Western Pacific would only have changed for the better than it is now. China is a large country beyond Britain's imagination, and the Chinese population is larger than the population of the entire British Commonwealth. Without such a country being included in the system established by the British, then China's only option would be to go its own way.
As for the interests of the Netherlands, what does that have to do with the British. Britain can form an alliance with a country in the morning and turn its face in the afternoon to deny people. There are only eternal interests, no eternal friends. This is the only criterion of British diplomacy. The old men in China still look at China with their previous eyes, believing that China does not have enough ability to shake the world, and only after the Netherlands was beaten by China with its sleeves rolled up did Britain understand that something was wrong.
In the same way, the British Minister understood that this was a negotiation to determine the relationship between friend and foe. If China is determined to shake the British colonial system, such negotiations are doomed to fail. So after a day and a night, the British minister finally wrote a proposal.
Chen Ke did not speak after reading the proposal, he did not care too much about the content of the proposal, which was not new at all for Chen Ke, who knew some of the history of World War II.
When the mustache was preparing to start World War II, Chamberlain got the consent of France, dragged his aging body, and arrived in Munich by plane for the first time in his life, and then took a train to Berchtesgaden, where Hitler's dacha was located. Hitler did not go to the airport or railway station to greet him according to diplomatic etiquette, but waited quietly on the steps of the villa for Chamberlain's "arrival", which was indeed an unusual cold reception for a head of government. On the day of Chamberlain's arrival, he held talks with Hitler. Hitler aggressively intimidated Chamberlain, saying that if a conflict arose over the Sudetenland, he would be "ready for any war...... There will never be a step back". He asked Chamberlain, "Does the British government agree to cede the Sudetenland?" Chamberlain immediately expressed his approval of the secession of the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia, and said that he would bring this idea back to England for cabinet approval and consult with France. He repeatedly begged Hitler not to use force, and Hitler agreed that "the Germans would not take any military action until the two men met again."
This is the inevitable process that the weakened world hegemons will go through, and they can only make those new powerful countries nominally abide by the order set by the hegemons through a series of contractions, compromises, and concessions. However, this order is destined to crumble, and no amount of efforts will be to avail.
However, the BJP does not want to be the vanguard of the overthrow of Britain's status, and as long as it proves to the world that Britain is weak, it can muster the courage of the challengers and make them believe that if they persecute Britain more vigorously than China, they can gain more than China.
Retracting his thoughts, Chen Ke seriously replied to this proposal one by one: "First, the land that China already occupies must belong to China. Historically, we have enough information to prove that China first established its political power in these lands. Second, the Netherlands must treat Chinese overseas Chinese and Chinese capital equally, even if it does not welcome Chinese investment, it will not make it difficult for Chinese investment. Third, we don't care whether the Anglo-Japanese alliance continues to exist, whether Britain is willing to unilaterally cancel it, and it has nothing to do with China. Fourth, the Strait of Malacca could be controlled by the British, and we have no intention of getting involved, but China's oil supply should not be restricted. Fifth, China has no intention of invading Britain, but the McMahon Line is completely illegal and cannot be relied upon at all. We have already investigated the areas in southern Tibet that pay taxes to the Dalai. The administration of these areas has not yet been administered by India, and there is no dispute about these areas. ”
The British minister's face was a little cloudy, and the Chinese side was somewhat more tough than Britain imagined, and some were more peaceful than Britain expected. But for Britain, China's hard-line regions are truly wild places. Unless Britain decides that it must suppress China, these areas will be painless.
"So is your country willing to sign a five-year Sino-British friendship peace agreement?" That's what the British minister cared about the most.
"China is willing to sign peace agreements with all friendly countries. Our attitude has never changed on this point. Chen Ke replied frankly.
After sending off the British minister, Chen Ke called the person in charge of liaison with Germany, "Tell Germany that we are likely to sign a peace agreement with Britain, and let Germany determine whether to buy submarines, and if the agreement is signed, the contract will be limited by the agreement." ”
One of the British proposals was that China should not provide any military assistance to countries hostile to Britain. When it came to complying with the agreement, Chen never saw the need for perfidy. Intrigue is more difficult to deal with than conspiracy, and if Germany does not have a strategic vision and does not want the results of Germany's previous cooperation with China to come to naught, Chen Ke believes that the mustache knows how to make decisions.
China is a responsible big country, and as long as Germany does not refuse, the Chinese side will definitely hand over to Germany the 100 submarines with ocean-going combat capabilities. This is a matter of minimum integrity.