Tan Renhao did not go to Gan Yongxing during normal working hours, but borrowed lunch time to find Gan Yongxing. The Admiral's Dining Room of the Navy Command is located in the Officers' Dining Room, which is luxuriously decorated, with silver cutlery, and it is not a buffet from the outside, but a recipe provided by the adjutant of the general every ten days, specially prepared by the chef, not only delicious, but also nutritious, almost every delicacious dish imaginable, can be served here.

"You're saying that it is possible for the US military to launch a counterattack in two directions?" Gan Yongxing usually doesn't like to discuss business during meals, first, he eats quickly, and secondly, he has never had the habit of discussing things at the dinner table.

"I judge from the command ability, if the US Navy has six fleet aircraft carriers and nine small aircraft carriers in July, then it will be organized into at least three task forces, and it may even reach the size of five task forces. And if so many fleets are operating in one theater of operations, there will be very huge problems in command and coordination. Tan Renhao didn't have much appetite, and the lunch in front of him was basically untouched.

Gan Yongxing nodded slightly. "So, how many aircraft carriers can you command at most, or how many task forces can you fight?"

"Me?" Tan Renhao hesitated for a moment, "At most, command two task forces to fight, and each task force can be incorporated into three aircraft carriers, which is already the limit, so at most command two task forces and six aircraft carriers." Moreover, this will also bring problems of coordination, and it will be difficult to fully bring into play the combat effectiveness of the two task forces. Computer station.. cN

"So, do you estimate that the commander of the US military can command a number of task forces at most?"

Tan Renhao smiled and shook his head. "Spruance and Halsey are the best aircraft carrier fleet commanders we know of U.S. admirals. Spruance had only commanded two task forces at most, while Halsey had no such experience. Command up to one task force. ”

"Is that a possibility?" Gan Yongxing put down the ivory chopsticks in his hand, "What about the U.S. military sending Spruance and Halsey to one battlefield at the same time to command the battle, instead of scattering the two battlefields to operate?" ”

"This ......" Tan Renhao was stunned for a moment. Then he laughed. "Chief of Staff, this poses a bigger problem. How are the territorial authorities of these two commanders determined? When fighting. Who is the primary and who is secondary? Also, how are the actions of the fleet coordinated? Also, how is there coordination between the two fleets and the theater command where they are located? If the two fleet commanders do not agree on the judgment of the battle situation, they will not agree on the arrangement of the battle. Coordination with the theater command would result in a fiasco, not a victory. ”

"You're right, but there are some issues that we have to think about more deeply." Gan Yongxing wiped the food residue off his mouth. "Regardless of which two commanders are in command of the battle, it is not difficult to set a priority between them, and even if Halsey and Spruance cooperate, there must be a priority between them. In addition, responsibilities can be clarified between the fleet and the theater command, for example, the theater command is only responsible for providing intelligence to the fleet and does not interfere in the fleet's combat operations. ”

Tan Renhao pondered. This analysis of the chief of staff is justified. Although dual command will reduce the combat effectiveness of the fleet. However, it can improve the overall combat capability.

"Your opinion is actually quite reasonable." Gan Yongxing took out a cigarette, "I also discussed this with a few staff officers at first, and we all thought at the time. In order to avoid wasting troops, the US military is very likely to divide its troops into two theaters, but the problem is that this will result in the US military not having an advantage in terms of strength in each theater. And it also gave us a chance to break through. According to our current judgment, the US military will choose a main battlefield and devote the vast majority of its forces, perhaps three task forces, or even four task forces. In addition, the U.S. military will also choose a secondary battlefield to contain our forces, at least one of our task forces. ”

Tan Renhao nodded, and after the restaurant service staff brought coffee and left, he said, "Chief of Staff, this situation may indeed occur. If the US military uses a smaller fleet to contain one of our three aircraft carrier task forces, then they will have an advantage on another battlefield, and the situation will be very unfavorable to us. ”

Gan Yongxing laughed. "We'll think about it, but let's go back to the office and talk about it later."

After the two left the general's restaurant, they immediately went to Gan Yongxing's office, most of the officers in the headquarters had not yet returned, and there was still half an hour before the afternoon work.

"At present, we still have very limited information, so we cannot immediately judge the strategic deployment of the US military." Gan Yongxing made a cup of tea for Tan Renhao, "The principal now only asks us to formulate a general strategic deployment for possible situations, as for the specific deployment, as well as the order to issue a campaign deployment to the war zone, these need to wait for us to obtain sufficient intelligence before we can make it." ”

Tan Renhao took the teacup, and his mood was also a little depressed at this time. All kinds of scenarios are possible, and the information will definitely arrive very late, and there may not be time to make adjustments.

"A counterattack by the U.S. military is only possible in two directions, the Central Pacific and the Southwest Pacific."

Gan Yongxing sat on the sofa opposite Tan Renhao, "And we only know now that the U.S. army is reinforcing Port Moresby on a large scale, and Yan Guozhong is already mobilizing troops, and a general attack on Port Moresby will be launched in a few days." With the help of the airfield on Tagura, the small US aircraft carrier fleet operating in the Coral Sea will not pose a threat to our transport fleet and landing fleet. In the Hawaiian direction, U.S. forces are also redeploying, and it is not yet possible to tell whether they are preparing for an attack or have been informed that we will attack Midway and strengthen the defense of the Hawaiian Islands. ”

"In other words, it is difficult for us to judge the direction of the main attack of the US military?"

Gan Yongxing nodded. "We have found someone to estimate that there is about a 60 percent chance that the US military will invest in the main force in the Central Pacific, and only 40 percent of the chance that the US military will invest in the main force in the Southwest Pacific."

"Count?" Tan Renhao was a little surprised, can war be calculated? He'd never heard of it. "How?"

"I don't know much about that. Anyway, a group of mathematicians we supported came up with a formula, and then calculated the probability of the U.S. military sending troops. Gan Yongxing shrugged his shoulders with a smile, "This is just for our reference." And not a decisive opinion, if you feel unreliable. You don't have to worry about that. In fact, whether it is 60 percent or 40 percent, we do not have any certainty at this point to judge in which direction the US military will concentrate its main forces. ”

Tan Renhao was a little surprised at first, and then he thought it was funny. War is caused by numerous natural factors. Thinking that a combination of factors is a kind of collective action, he did very well in basic mathematics in the academy, and he didn't know how to calculate the probability of the enemy on paper.

"Your opinion is also a possibility." Gan Yongxing looked at the clock hanging on the wall, "I will consider it comprehensively, if you insist that the US military will divide the troops in two directions, or if you have any new ideas, then give me a report, and when you have time, we will talk to the principal about it." The headmaster still has several bottles of wine at home! ”

Tan Renhao immediately laughed. "Okay, then I'll go get the report out first."

Easy to speak. It's harder to do things. When Tan Renhao returned to his office, he found that the information he had about the deployment of the US military was indeed pitiful. The U.S. Navy will leave it at that.

The three small aircraft carriers that are still active are all in the southwest Pacific, while the other warships are still housed in shipyards on the east coast of the United States. What is relatively clear now is the movement and deployment of US ground forces.

Since the end of the Battle of the Solomon Islands, the U.S. military has been strengthening the defenses of Port Moresby and the New Hebrides, including two divisions of reinforcements to Port Moresby in mid-May. Reinforcements are still continuing, and large quantities of war materiel are being sent there.

The battle between the two sides for the US military airfield in the southeast had already begun, and Yan Guozhong urgently airlifted a number of marines over, and also used the cover of the Navy to arrange for a transport fleet to send a large amount of heavy equipment and combat materials. The battle in Port Moresby was fierce, but for a while, neither could completely kill the other.

In the direction of the New Hebrides, the US defense forces have been strengthened from three divisions to six divisions, and airfields have been set up on five islands, strengthening the defenses of Espírito Santo, Marakura, Efate, and Eromana. In addition, the US military deployed on the island of New Caledonia has also been strengthened, with many new airfields added, and the scale of the US military aviation deployed here is also rapidly expanding; in addition to most of the tactical fighters of the US Navy Air Force, a large number of tactical aircraft of the US Army Air Force are stationed there.

U.S. forces in the Southwest Pacific theater have been strengthened. In May, three U.S. convoys arrived on the Australian mainland, bringing not only a large number of warplanes, tanks, and artillery, but also at least 10 divisions of ground troops. After receiving reinforcements, MacArthur became arrogant, and even sent heavy bombers to bomb the Tang Imperial troops outside Port Moresby, the airfield on Kuah Island and other important targets. But MacArthur could not afford to throw any big waves for the time being, at least until the US Navy regained sea supremacy, MacArthur still had to stay in the port of Brisbane honestly, unable to launch a large-scale strategic counterattack.

In the Central Pacific direction, the U.S. military's defenses in the Hawaiian Islands have also been strengthened. However, the islands in the Central Pacific are not densely distributed, and defense depends largely on fleets, not marines. Prior to this, the Tang Army and the US military basically fought fleets in the Central Pacific, and the consumption of US ground forces was not very large. Therefore, the reinforcement of the US army in the direction of Hawaii is not very large.

It is worth noting the deployment of US forces in the South Pacific, as well as in the Southeast Pacific.

At the outbreak of the war, the U.S. military had already controlled all areas except the western Pacific, and among them, the islands in the South Pacific and the Southeast Pacific were not the focus of U.S. defense, and many of the islands did not even have infrastructure for garrisons. At that time, no one could predict the victory or defeat of the Battle of the Mariana Islands, and it was impossible to know whether the Tang Empire advanced eastward, or whether the U.S. army pressed its troops to the Tang Empire's borders. After the Battle of the Mariana Islands, the situation became clear, and even if the war had not yet reached the South Pacific, the United States had begun to strengthen the defenses of the islands in the South Pacific and the Southeast Pacific.

After spending more than a year and mobilizing a large amount of manpower, material resources, and transportation capacity, the US military has set up military stations, airports, temporary ports, radio stations, seaplane supply centers, and so on on dozens of islands in the Tuvalu Islands, Phoenix Islands, Samoa Islands, Fiji Islands, Cook Islands, Tumoatu Islands, and Line Islands, and there are tens of thousands of US officers and soldiers stationed on these islands, as well as thousands of aircraft (mainly anti-submarine patrol planes).

A series of U.S. operations in the South and Southeast Pacific appeared to protect fleets bound for mainland Australia. The anti-submarine patrol aircraft deployed on these islands really played a big role, and the role of those radio listening stations was also obvious, which led to a considerable increase in the losses of the submarines of the Tang Empire in this sea area. But the problem is that it also strengthens the defense capability of the US military on this side. Whether it's sending additional troops to the Australian mainland or serving as a defense line on the southern flank of the Hawaiian Islands, the value of these islands is enormous.

From this only information, Tan Renhao was not able to find the valuable information he needed. The deployment of the US military is very defensive in nature, and the intelligence itself is not completely reliable. More importantly, Tan Renhao had to face the US fleet, not the US Marine Corps.

The confusion on the battlefield is very great, in order to make the opponent make a wrong judgment, casting false intelligence is a very effective means, the intelligence department of the Tang Empire is also doing this, and a lot of the information received before has problems. Thinking of this, Tan Renhao no longer cares about that intelligence, and there is a simple and more practical way to judge the general strategic direction of the US military in the next step, that is, to stand in the opponent's perspective and think about the problem in the opponent's way.