Chapter 1275: It's a lot to lose
"Joseph, when can we achieve a comprehensive ceasefire?"
"Mr. President, the date has been set. On May 8, 1945, Berlin time www.biquge.info a ceasefire could be achieved with the European Community and New Asbania. As for the ceasefire with Japan, it will only be possible after full communication between Germany and Japan. ”
"May 8...... Today is May 1st, and there is still a week to go. ”
"It was true that there was still a week, but Hitler assured that the European coalition ground forces would not launch an offensive outside the Avalonian Peninsula and Labrador, and that they would not launch any further attacks on the American mainland. The reason why he proposed May 8 as the date for a ceasefire was that he hoped to have full exchanges with the Japanese side in order to achieve a ceasefire on a global scale. ”
"Oh, I see."
Truman, who was communicating with Vice President Kennedy on the hotline, exhaled softly. The attitude of the Germans was still moderate, and the matter of a ceasefire was finally finalized.
"So has the amount of compensation changed?" When Truman asked the question, his heart began to beat faster.
"1,000 billion Euromarks." Kennedy replied in a very sensual tone, "Hitler wants to get 1,000 billion, of which 75 billion will be paid in gold and silver, and the rest will receive materials, which can be paid in installments." ”
"1,000 billion ...... It's still too much! Truman shook his head, a little regretful. When Roosevelt was still there, 500 billion couldn't be used, and now it's doubled, which is really a loss.
"There should be room for negotiation...... But for us, 1,000 billion euromarks is not out of reach. ”
1,000 billion euromarks is equivalent to $400 billion now (the dollar is definitely bearish), which is almost equal to the GDP of the United States for 2 years.
It seems like a lot, but apart from $30 billion in gold and silver and some oil, agricultural products and livestock, most of the reparations (about $360 billion) can be repaid over 15-20 years, or an average of $18 billion a year (in 1944 terms), which is actually not a lot.
In addition, the raw materials demanded by the Germans such as grain, livestock, cotton, crude steel, coal, petroleum products, and non-ferrous metals were not difficult for the United States to raise. The United States is the chosen nation, with the world's largest and most fertile agricultural land, as well as the world's largest reserves of coal mines and extremely low mining costs. As long as the U.S. economy can maintain normal and healthy functioning, it will not be a problem to pay the reparations in 20 years.
However, it will not be easy to maintain the normal operation of the post-war American economy. Even post-war political stability in the United States will face serious challenges.
"Joseph," Truman sighed as he thought of this, "Edward (referring to Secretary of State) will arrive in Rome yesterday, and the talks with German Foreign Minister Ribbentrop are now underway...... I think it's time for us to reach out to Republican leaders. ”
Of course, there are open and formal channels for the discussion of peace between the United States and Germany. Stettinius has now led a delegation to Rome, where he will formally begin negotiations with a diplomatic delegation led by German Foreign Minister Ribbentrop at the Venetian Palace.
However, both Truman and Kennedy knew that the real opponent in this peace negotiation was not Germany, but in the United States!
After the call with Truman, Vice President Kennedy immediately left the temporary vice president's residence in the Art Institute of Chicago building and went to meet with Republican leader Taft at the temporary congressional residence in the nearby Art Institute of Chicago library.
The meeting took place in Congressman Taft's office, and apart from Kennedy and Taft, the only person present was Nelson, the chief of staff of the Vice President. Rockefeller.
In a room filled with the smell of books and coffee, the three begin a meeting that could decide the fate of the United States.
Kennedy smiled wryly and said to the Republican leader: "Senator, now that the Secretary of State has met with the German Foreign Minister, it is estimated that a ceasefire agreement will be reached soon." But real peace negotiations are likely to be very difficult...... The Germans will certainly raise their asking price, and three or four hundred billion dollars in reparations are indispensable. ”
Taft shook his head: "Damn it, lose so much money...... I said that this war could not be fought, but that stubborn Roosevelt would not listen. ”
"Isn't it," Nelson. Rockefeller chimed in, "Mr. Vice President and I are both opposed to war...... Now that those who supported the war have either died or stepped down, it is hateful to ask those of us who oppose the war to clean up the mess. ”
"Nelson, you say," Taft looked at Nelson. Rockefeller, "Who's going to pay for this?" ”
Nelson. Rockefeller exhaled and smiled bitterly: "No one can afford that much money, except for the Federal Reserve." ”
What this means is that the ticket is printed! Whether it is 300 billion yuan or 400 billion yuan, it is definitely not possible to rely on taxes to collect so much money, and there is no hope that the issuance of treasury bonds can be raised. The only way to do this is for the Fed to lend directly to the government...... It's printing dollars to dilute the savings and wages of all American people.
It's not Nelson's own meaning, it's the meaning of Wall Street as a whole.
"How much is the dollar going to fall?" Taft asked.
"Ideally," Mr. Rockefeller said, "purchasing power would fall by 50 percent." ”
"So much?" Taaffe was stunned, apparently the dollar had depreciated more than he had imagined.
"yes," Rockefeller said, "because in the next 20 years, we will have to pay Europe a lot of raw materials, so domestic consumption of raw materials will have to be reduced, and Americans may need to save a little, and there will be a difficult time for supremacy." ”
This conclusion was made by Wall Street, and it is not necessarily beneficial to the US economy after the defeat -- in Wall Street's view, the US economy will enter a period of economic contraction and inflation after the war, and the life of ordinary people will be more difficult.
"So how do you sustain the domestic economy?" "If the dollar depreciates and wages don't rise in tandem, consumption will probably shrink very much, right?" ”
"Exports," Rockefeller replied, "the Roman Empire would be a very large market, and the best place for American capital." ”
The method proposed by Rockefeller was to export industrialization to the Roman Empire, on the one hand, to find a new, safe, and highly profitable market for American capital; On the one hand, it was also possible to oppose the German-dominated United States of Europe by bolstering the Roman Empire.
"In addition," Rockefeller added, "China, Australia, and New Zealand will also be important markets for American goods and capital." ”
"Australia and New Zealand?" Taft was a little puzzled, "Isn't that a colony of the British Empire?" ”
"Not necessarily," Kennedy shook his head and said with a smile, "There are hundreds of thousands of American and British troops there, and there are a lot of weapons and equipment hoarded." If, I mean, if King George VI and his government leave Canada for Australia, and Admiral MacArthur and his army are unwilling to admit defeat...... And what can the Germans do? ”
Germany could launch a massive expedition, but only with the assistance of Japan.
But why did Japan help Germany conquer Australia and New Zealand? That would only allow Germany to deploy heavy troops in the backyard of the Japanese Empire, which would do more harm than good to the Japanese Empire.
"Australia and New Zealand will become the Baltic republics of our United States!" Kennedy said, "If the Germans can't agree with Japan on Australia and New Zealand, then they'll have to let it go." We can use Australia and New Zealand to break through the limits of the peace treaty. ”
The way to use Australia and New Zealand to get out of the postwar treaty was given to Truman and Kennedy by Roosevelt's confidant, Hopkins, who was now sick at home and dying.
In Hopkins' view, once Canada fell into German hands, the United States could easily be seen dead. There are many things that are inconvenient to do at home, and can only be done in Australia and New Zealand, which are beyond the reach of Germany.
To this end, the United States should try to persuade King George VI to lead the government to take refuge in Australia, and at the same time strengthen Australia and New Zealand as much as possible before signing a peace treaty. In the post-war period, investment in Australia and New Zealand should also be increased to the extent that they can do so. If possible, a strong Australia-New Zealand federation would be fostered.
"It's quite thoughtful," Taft nodded, "then...... When will we be able to resolve this troublesome matter at hand? ”
"It should be resolved within the year," Kennedy said, "and next year is the midterm elections, and a lot of things are inconvenient to operate, so let's solve them this year." ”
Although the defeat of the Democratic Party is assured, Truman and most of the Democratic bigwigs still hope that they can save it, so they are now also formulating a rescue strategy.
There are two specific methods: First, quickly cut through the mess to resolve the issue of peace talks, minimize the damage to the Democratic Party, and at the same time win opportunities for the Democratic Party to adjust its policies; The second is to return to the iron ticket area of the seven southern states, hold high the banner of white supremacy, and first keep the votes of the southern whites.
"Okay, okay, that's all." Taft nodded repeatedly, "The Republican demand is also very simple, as long as a few resolutions are passed to repeal the unreasonable new political law, we will support the peace treaty you have reached with the Germans."
In addition, our two parties could cooperate in the 1946 midterm elections against the fascist party and the Bolshevik party, two saboteurs of American politics!
It is my sincere hope that our country's politics can return to where it was before the Great Depression and the New Deal of the 20s. It is up to our two parties to govern in turn, while excluding all radical political forces from mainstream politics. ”