The number of household registrations from the Hongwu period to the end of the Ming Dynasty is recorded in books such as "Ming Shilu", "Daming Huidian", and "Houhu Chronicles", and there are more local household registration data recorded in local chronicles. However, as scholars who have studied the amount of household registration in the Ming Dynasty have generally pointed out, the quality of the data in most areas, with the exception of some areas in the north, is extremely poor and does not reflect the true state of population development in the Ming Dynasty. Therefore, the most common method used by scholars is to estimate the average annual population growth rate of the Ming Dynasty by testing the relevant data, and then use the total population of the country in the late Hongwu period as the base to calculate the total population of the late Ming Dynasty. Due to the different estimates of the total population of the late Hongwu period, and the estimates of the population growth rate of the Ming Dynasty are also quite different, the estimates of the peak population of the Ming Dynasty are extremely different. The following is a discussion of the population growth rate of the Ming Dynasty.

He Bingdi, who first estimated the population growth rate of the Ming Dynasty, compared the two household numbers recorded in the Houhu Chronicles in the 26th year of Hongwu and the 21st year of Jiajing (1542), and found that the population in the north increased greatly, while the population in the south declined greatly. He calculated that the average annual population growth rate of the five northern provinces was 3.4 per thousand, and believed that the population growth rate in the south should be slightly higher than that in the north, so he estimated that the total population in the 28th year of Wanli (1600) was about 150 million. In this way, he used an average annual growth rate of about 4.19 per thousand. Zhao Gang agreed with He's judgment that the population of the Ming Dynasty was growing steadily, but felt that He's estimate was too conservative, and he believed that the annual population growth rate of the Ming Dynasty would not be less than 6‰, and that by the 18th year of Wanli (1590), the population would reach a peak of about 200 million. Wang Yumin basically agrees with He's estimate, arguing that the average annual growth rate can be calculated at 3.5 per thousand, plus the rest of the population that is not in the civil register, and the total population will be 150 million by 1600. Ge Jianxiong believes that in a period of peace that has lasted for 200 years, the average annual population growth rate of 4.19‰ is obviously too low, while the quality of life of farmers in the south is higher than that in the north, and its population growth rate is much higher than that in the north, and it should be much higher than 4‰; He advocated that the average annual growth rate should be 5‰, so that by the 28th year of Wanli there should be 197 million people, and there may be a slow growth thereafter, and the maximum population of the Ming Dynasty should be close to 200 million. Later, in a paper co-authored with Cao Shuji, they estimated that the total population would reach 205 million by 1600 due to the increase in the total population of the Hongwu period, and believed that there was a higher possibility. Hedra also argues that He grossly underestimated the population size of the late Ming Dynasty, and based on the understanding that the population growth rate showed a slow downward trend from 1500 to 1800, he envisaged three groups of population growth rate values: from 1380 to 1500, the high value was 6‰, the median value was 5‰, and the low value was 4‰; From 1500 to 1600, the high value was 5‰, the median value was 4‰, and the low value was 3‰; From 1600 to 1650, the high value was 4‰, the median value was 3‰, and the low value was 2‰. She thinks that low values are hard to believe, and that perhaps a value between high and medium is appropriate. At the median value, the population should be 230 million by 1600, 290 million by 1650, and 290 million by 1600 at a high value.

Cao Shuji recently re-examined the Ming Dynasty's population growth rate, criticized the views of scholars such as He Bingdi, and revised his own previous estimates. According to his observations, the number of registered households in the northern region was still on the rise before the Hongzhi period, but it began to decline after Zhengde, indicating that the number of registered households at this time was by no means credible, and He Bingdi compared the population of the Jiajing period with the population of the Hongwu period, and naturally underestimated the population growth rate of the Ming Dynasty. He studied the relevant data and speculated that in most areas of the north, the average annual natural growth rate of the population in the Ming Dynasty could reach 5‰-8‰. He also collected scattered data from the Fang Zhi to estimate the average annual population growth rate in the south of the Ming Dynasty, and came to a contrary result to He Bingdi's estimate, that is, the annual population growth rate in the south was lower than that in the north, only 3‰-4‰. Based on the situation of the northern and southern regions, the average annual population growth rate of the Ming Dynasty was about 4.1‰, and by the third year of Chongzhen (1630), the population was about 192 million. Chen Yuyong also conducted a preliminary investigation of the phenomenon of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south" in the official records of the Ming Dynasty, and believed that there were indeed quite serious hidden omissions in the household statistics of the Jiangnan region in the Ming Dynasty, and the explanation of scholars such as He Bingdi had a certain truth. However, he also pointed out that it is unscientific to deduce the total population of the south during the same period based on the growth rate of the population in the north, and that the population growth rate in the south of the Ming Dynasty should be relatively low, and the total population of the nine provinces of Nanzhili, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Huguang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan, and Yunnan in the middle of the Ming Dynasty should not be less than the early Ming Dynasty, but it will not be several times more than that in the early Ming Dynasty. In addition, Li Bozhong also criticized the popular view that the population growth rate in Jiangnan should be relatively high, pointing out that by the Song, Yuan, Ming and Qing dynasties, birth control was gradually popularized in some parts of China, and became one of the important characteristics of population behavior in these places, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions were particularly important. It was during the five centuries from the late Southern Song Dynasty to the middle of the Qing Dynasty that the population of the Jiangnan region changed from the previous high-speed growth to low-speed growth. Specific to the Ming Dynasty, Li accepted He Bingdi's assumption that the average annual population growth rate of the five provinces in North China was 3.4‰, and believed that the south should be slightly higher, of which the four provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Fujian may be lower than Hunan, Hubei, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan, etc., and the growth rate of the five provinces in North China and the seven provinces such as Hunan may be close to the national average, which is about 3.8‰, and the population growth rate in the south of the Yangtze River should also be close to the national growth rate.

The research of these scholars has further deepened the study of the population history of the Ming Dynasty and laid a good foundation for estimating the population growth rate of the Ming Dynasty and the population amount in the middle and late Ming Dynasty. However, it is necessary to further study whether there was a huge gap between the population growth rate between the north and south of the Ming Dynasty, and what is the appropriate value for the population growth rate of the whole country. Judging from the available data, the natural and man-made disasters in the northern region of the Ming Dynasty were not less than those in the south, and their impact on the population growth rate should not be much different in the south and the north. Only the phenomenon of infant drowning is more severe in the south than in the north, which may lead to a lower population growth rate in the south than in the north, but not much lower. The above-mentioned scholars' examination of the population growth rates in the North and the South, as well as their estimates of the lower population growth rates in the South, are based mainly on official records of household numbers, especially those in local chronicles. However, because of the huge differences in socio-economic conditions and the manner of conscription between the North and the South, the problems and nature of the household registration figures in the two places are very different, so the difference in population growth rates between the North and the South may not be as large as the official statistics reflect.

Many people in the Ming Dynasty commented on the huge difference in the level of economic development and the enslavement system between the north and the south. As Xu Fuzuo pointed out: "To the north of Huai, there is no fixed mu of soil, and one look is the hectare, so every time there is more hidden field grain; In the south of the river, there is no real household Ding, and the household is based on the property, so there are many missing households. Ge Shouli also pointed out: "Most of the provinces have their own affairs, and the people in the south are dense and narrow, and they are not able to buy land. The northern land is sparsely populated, and even nine are engaged in farming, renting and occupying the land, and there is a lot of abundance that is not sold. The southern field is not repulsed and not barren, the mu rate is worth a few gold, even one or twenty gold, but there is water conservancy, two or three years can collect a few stones, the north land regardless of the middle and lower, its price and its production, and the south is suspended, that is, the land can not be compared with it, Wude thus levy it? In the south, for every dozens of people in a household, only one ding is served, and it takes ten years to take the turn to be a errand. Ding Ding in the north is in service, and he is on an errand every year, and there are even those who have died and falsely reported their registration, and their strength is extremely poor, and they can add money to the barren land they are raised! "Haiyan County Chronicles, Food and Goods" also pointed out: "The hidden leakage of the household registration is the disadvantage in today's world, not only in the southeast, but also in the southeast", because "those in the north of the Jiangbei who are poor in Dingding, there is still a real household registration today, and those who are on errands in the south of the Yangtze River have no real mouth, and the disadvantages are unique." These comments show that during the Ming Dynasty, there was a phenomenon of bullying the grain and Dingkou in the north and south, but the focus of the deception was very different. Generally speaking, due to the "vast land and sparsely populated land" and "very wide land" in the north, the phenomenon of concealing grain from the fields is quite serious, and not only has the Dingkou been basically entered into the official register, but there is also the phenomenon of falsely increasing the number of Dingkou in many localities. For example, the Gongchang Prefecture in Shaanxi Province was expelled due to "the name of official evasion and reduction", so that there were 2,200 registered Ding in Anding County, only 400 in Shizhiding, 1,600 in Tongwei County, and only 600 in Shizhiding. "Yanzhou Mansion Chronicles" records that in the twentieth year of Wanli (1592), there were 42,657 households and 107806 households in Wenshang County, while in the twenty-second year of Wanli (1594), there were 12,737 households and 87,782 households in the "Book of Instructions". Li Xicheng, the compiler of Jiajing's Lanyang County Chronicles, once explained the growth of household registration: "The gradual increase in household registration is caused by the division of households, not the actual increase." Shen Bang, the commander of Wanping County, also pointed out that the number of Ding editors compiled by the previous magistrates of the county was "unbearable and existed in name only". In the densely populated and narrow south, from the Hongwu period, the investigation and registration of the population is not as strict as in the north, and the leakage of the population is more, this situation is more serious in the middle and late Ming Dynasty, and the situation is generally "dense in the land and neglected in the household registration, the homeland has no taxes, and the number of books does not occupy the Ding", and the phenomenon of concealing the household is very serious. The rapid development of commercialization and urbanization in the south in the middle and late Ming Dynasty also led to a large number of people leaving their land and household registration. Xu Wei once talked about the population problem of Zhejiang Huiji, saying that "those who are not registered are three times more than the one who is not registered." He Qiaoyuan described the situation in Fujian, saying that "in the homes of the common people today, those who are registered are called officials, and those who are not registered are called private people." Ye Chunji talked about the situation in Shunde, Guangdong, saying that "the home of the Hao Party, the city with the officials, and dozens of people ascend to power, although it is important that dozens of people share it." The local chronicles of Nanchang, Jiangxi Province also pointed out: "According to the six years after Longqing, there were 300,000 households and 900,000 mouths. There are millions of unmarried and sick men and women, and the total number of unreported households is no less than hundreds of thousands, and the number of displaced people is not yet here, but more than two million. ”

Therefore, it is easy to estimate the population growth rate of the Ming Dynasty based on the household registration data in the local chronicles, and it is easy to estimate the northern part of the country and the south of the country. A number of micro-historical demographic studies based on genealogical data, although still in their infancy, have provided a useful reference for estimating population growth rates in the South. Cao Shuji has studied the population growth of immigrant clans in the Ming and Qing dynasties, and the sample shows that the average annual population growth rate of the Anhui Yangtze River Plain over a period of 50 years is 8.7‰ in 1401-1450, 10.7‰ in 1451-1500, 7.9‰ in 1501-1550, 7.6‰ in 1551-1600, 6.2‰ in 1601-1650, 8.3‰ in 1401-1650, and 1501- in 1650 it was 7.3 per thousand; The situation in Changsha, Hunan Province was 12.9‰ in 1501-1550, -0.4‰ in 1551-1600, 3.6‰ in 1601-1650, and 5.3‰ in 1501-1650. Ted A. Telford studied the birth rate and population growth of Tongcheng, Anhui Province, and the average annual population growth rate changed as follows: 10‰ in 1494-1524, 9.4‰ in 1525-1534, 7.2‰ in 1535-1544, 6.7‰ in 1545-1554, 5.2‰ in 1555-1564, 8.2‰ in 1565-1574, 6.5‰ in 1575-1584, and 1585- It was 0.9‰ in 1594, -0.3‰ in 1595-1604, 1.2‰ in 1605-1614, 6.2‰ in 1615-1624, 15.3‰ in 1625-1634, 16.4‰ in 1635-1644, and about 7.5‰ in 1494-1644. From these data, although the population growth of various regions and clans may fluctuate greatly over a long period of time, and the overall population growth rate of the middle and late Ming Dynasty showed a downward trend, the average annual population growth rate of the southern population was much higher than the above scholars imagined in the 250 years from the early 15th century to the mid-17th century. Of course, the population growth rate of immigrant clans and strong clans is likely to be relatively faster, so it is not possible to apply these growth rates universally to the entire southern region.

Taking into account the population data recorded in the Fang Zhi and the socio-economic situation of the north and south, I believe that when estimating the population growth of the Ming Dynasty, on the basis of Cao Shuji's estimate, the north can be appropriately adjusted downwards and the south should be appropriately upward, and an average annual growth rate of 5‰ should be adopted in the whole country. In this way, based on the total population of 70.55 million in the twenty-fourth year of Hongwu (1391), multiplied by the average annual growth rate of 5‰, there should be 190 million people in the twenty-eighth year of Wanli (1600). Scholars disagree on whether the population has continued to grow since then, but considering that natural and man-made disasters continued to occur frequently in the more than 40 years from then until the death of the Ming Dynasty, the population growth may have been very slow. Therefore, the estimated population in the 28th year of Wanli can be roughly regarded as the peak population of the Ming Dynasty.