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In the compartment of the special car, Chen Wenqiang was having another round of secret talks with Fa Chinhan. As the Entente expected, Germany was indeed carrying out an operation to win over China. Moreover, the conditions offered are also quite generous.

However, in Chen Wenqiang's view, the Germans were generous to others, and in addition to offering a loan of 100 million marks on attractive terms, the other promises to cede Russian and French interests and colonies in the Far East to China were simply empty promises.

During the talks, Chen Wenqiang also found that Germany believed that Britain had always wanted to avoid a continental war, and if war broke out, there was no doubt that it would take a neutral position. So even if there was a war against France or Russia, it would only be a local war. According to the estimation of the German General Staff, Russia would not be able to complete its armament program until 1916-1917, and Germany decided to preemptively defeat one of France and Russia before Russia's strategic preparations were completed.

Chen Wenqiang did not warn Germany of the British attitude, which would likely lead Germany to adopt a cautious approach. But he could not agree to join the Allies, which was at stake in the future of the country.

"Frankly, it's not very appropriate for China to join the Allied bloc right now." "This will put China under tremendous pressure from the Entente bloc, and the geographical isolation of China and Germany will also prevent China from receiving effective support from Germany," Chen said. Of course, China's feelings for Germany are absolutely sincere, and no effort is spared in supporting it. Your Excellency will feel these very deeply after the return of those staff officers of your country. ”

It is not surprising that Falkingham acknowledged that Chen's argument was reasonable, that Germany's military might in the Far East was not sufficient to provide China with sufficient confidence, and that the United States had explicitly rejected Germany's request for an alliance.

Excuses can be found, but some level of commitment is also necessary. Chen Wenqiang ordered someone to take a map of China, pointed it out, and said: "Now our country is worried about the attitude of Britain, because this will affect Japan, another powerful military force in the Far East. If Britain were to adopt neutrality in the European war, our government would immediately join the Allied bloc and strike Russia militarily from behind. ”

For an emerging country, a country with a long coastline and a weak navy, it was natural to fear Britain and Japan. And making such a clear commitment is undoubtedly the limit of what the Chinese government can do.

"So, can China and Germany sign a secret agreement to fix these things in writing?" Falkingham believed that in this case, for Germany, the goal had been achieved, and it was unlikely that Britain would enter the war. In other words, China's accession to the Allied bloc is already a sure thing, but the time will be delayed and the situation will be clearer.

"Absolutely." Chen Wenqiang readily agreed, the agreement between countries is not unbreakable, and Italy in the allies will not turn against the water? What's more, Britain's participation in World War I was inevitable, and the preconditions were fixed, and China did not have to worry about it.

Falkingham was pleased with the results of his visit to China, and that Germany's financial and technical assistance to China was not a one-sided offering. First of all, German capital has achieved great expansion in China, not only occupying a large share in automobiles, chemicals, etc., but also involved in the development of petroleum in northwest China, four large oil refineries, half of which are owned by virtue and half of each of them.

Moreover, there are almost no restrictions on the export of Chinese agricultural products such as beans, sesame, cowhide, wool, and pig bristles, as well as mineral raw materials such as antimony and tungsten, to Germany. You know, many of them are strategic materials, especially tungsten and antimony ore, which are of great help to the German military industry.

"I am touched by the frankness of the Chinese government." Falkingham personally poured wine and was ready to raise a glass to the conclusion of the secret agreement, which, in his opinion, China had been tied to the chariot, there was no doubt about it.

Chen Wenqiang put down his wine glass and said with a smile: "I'm afraid things are not so simple, if Britain enters the war, so what?" ”

Falkingham shook his head resolutely and said: "This is impossible, not to mention that Britain tried its best to avoid the outbreak of war in Europe, and only said that our Majesty is related to the British king, so I would not make such a judgment." ”

"There's always something going on." Chen Wenqiang's attitude seemed to Fa Jinhan to be a little stubborn, but Chen Wenqiang still said, "If such an unfortunate thing happens, our government will not enter the war prematurely, and please understand this for Your Majesty and the government." Moreover, this should be included in the signing of secret agreements, including the Qingdao issue. ”

Falkingham was silent, pondered for a moment, and asked tentatively: "Mr. Secretary, is it possible that because Britain entered the war, your government will declare war on our country?" ”

"Not so." Chen Wenqiang shook his head and said, "But it is necessary to maintain neutrality, Your Excellency will not think that with the strength of our country, you can resist the joint attack of Britain and Japan, or even Russia, right?" ”

Fa Jinhan blinked and continued to ask: "So how does the Qingdao problem need to be solved?" ”

"Just as there is a precondition for the commitment made by my country, I hope that your country will also make a specific plan for a particular situation." Chen Wenqiang said slowly.

"What do you mean by exceptional circumstances?" Falkingham asked.

Chen Wenqiang pondered for a moment and said: "The special situation is the assumption made by our government, that is, after the outbreak of the war in Europe, if Britain enters the war, it will definitely invite Japan to join the side of the Entente and start an attack on your country's Far East Fleet and the Qingdao garrison. ”

"This situation can basically be ruled out, is your government some-hehe." Fakingham seemed to find it ridiculous, and he didn't finish his words, but the meaning was clear, that is, the Chinese government was a little unfounded.

"What if that happens?" Chen Wenqiang said solemnly: "At that time, due to Britain's entry into the war, our country was very likely to adopt wartime neutrality, but your country's armed forces gave Britain and Japan an excuse to invade our territory. Because of the vital interests at stake, the government is bound to express concern about this. ”

Fa Jinhan touched his chin and thought for a while, and said: "Then your government hopes that when this special situation arises, our country will return Qingdao to your country, and in accordance with the Neutrality Law, your country will disarm the Qingdao garrison, and then within twenty-four hours, the Jiaozhou Bay fleet will leave the country." ”

"If Britain enters the war, I hope your country will do that." Chen Wenqiang said: "In this case, the Qingdao issue will be resolved in advance before Japan declares war, so as not to be realized." ”

Falkingham was puzzled, but did not take it to heart, because this precondition was unlikely to be possible in the eyes of the German government. Of course, he didn't have so much power, he needed to ask for instructions from home, and ask Wilhelm II to decide.

"I can convey your government's request to the country, and I hope that an agreement can be reached smoothly." After whispering a few words with the German minister, Falkingham said with some apologies: "However, it is not difficult to return Qingdao conditionally, but I am afraid that the disarmament matter is a little troublesome." Because there was a bad precedent before, during the Russo-Japanese War, a Russian ship escaped into Jiaozhou Bay and disarmed itself to accept China's protection, but was directly captured by the Japanese ship. Therefore, it is safer to keep the German overseas Chinese and the army and navy in Qingdao for self-defense. ”

"This is not the time of Manchu rule." Chen Wenqiang flatly refused: "Something like this will never happen." For the sake of national honor and sovereignty, our armed forces are not afraid of fighting to the end with any country. I can tell you unequivocally that after disarming the Qingdao garrison in your country, they will be transferred to Xinjiang or Mongolia to play a role in the battle against the Russians; Or we will organize neutral ships to repatriate. ”

"My government may need a written assurance." The German minister said: "Of course, we can think of more ways to deal with this particular situation. ”

"A written guarantee is OK." Chen Wenqiang raised his glass with a smile and said: "With all due respect, your country's military strength in the Far East is no match for Britain and Japan, and instead of creating some insignificant troubles for the Japanese and harming the interests of our country, it is better to preserve the vital forces and plan for future changes." Of course, if your country can return Qingdao to our country, the benefits it will gain will far outweigh the loss of its stronghold in the Far East. What our country can come up with is very generous, and it will play an immeasurable role in the war situation. ”

Falkingham and the German minister smiled at each other and raised their glasses together. Although they don't know where Chen Wenqiang's self-confidence comes from, these are no longer up to them.

Chen Wenqiang attached great importance to the Qingdao issue, and he also carefully discussed with the General Staff Headquarters several situations that might arise after the outbreak of the war in Europe and the corresponding countermeasures.

The ideal is that after Britain declared war and before Japan declared war, Germany took the initiative to return Qingdao to China; The second was that the German side delayed and used diplomatic efforts to prevent Japan from entering the war, and after diplomatic failure, returned Qingdao to China; The worst result was that the Germans got their heads in the water, thinking that with those thousands of naval and army forces, they could block the joint attack of Japan and Britain, and instead of returning Qingdao to China, they would stubbornly resist by force to the end.

In the first case, the matter was simple: China took Qingdao peacefully, maintained a neutral position, disarmed the Germans stationed in Qingdao, and ordered the German Jiaozhou Bay Fleet to leave the port within twenty-four hours, and Japan had no excuse to attack; The second scenario is more troublesome, as in history, Japan will block China's takeover of Qingdao and threaten war; The third scenario cannot be allowed for China, for which the General Staff has drawn up a military plan to storm Qingdao.

No matter what happens, China must be prepared for a war with Japan, and for the unreasonable Japanese, they may ignore any international conventions and the principle of neutrality. All China had to do was not to violate international conventions and the principle of neutrality, to occupy the moral high ground, to avoid joint action by the Entente powers, and to deal with only one enemy, Japan, alone.

Japan itself was under a lot of debt before World War I, its finances were on the verge of collapse, and its poor fiscal situation did not allow it to go on a long war.

And the European countries, mired in war, will not rather suffer themselves than support Japan in fighting an unnecessary and unreasonable war.

The United States has always been at odds with Japan, and even if it cannot send troops, it will support China in other ways. Russia wanted to seek revenge from China, but it fell into the ground, but it was also powerless because its military strength was contained by Germany.

In a one-on-one war, China tries to avoid fighting two or more countries at the same time, which is the basic principle. Declaring war on Germany at the beginning of the war and biting on Qingdao would not have more interest than neutrality. However, maintaining neutrality and strictly prohibiting belligerents from using Chinese territory, will Japan ignore China and insist on sending troops?

Chen Wenqiang thinks it is very possible, but at this time, China is in the rising period under the rule of the new government, and it is even in a confrontation with Japan, so how many troops can Japan mobilize to China at this time? In addition to a strong navy, Japan has only 20 divisions and more than 500,000 troops in its standing army. Unlikely.

Even if all of them were dispatched, what could they do, and would China still be more fierce than the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression in history? The combat effectiveness of the current Japanese army has not yet reached the level of perversion at that time, but the strength of the Chinese army has made great progress after the development of the past few years.

In Chen Wenqiang's view, in the early stage of the war, if the Japanese army did its best, due to China's long coastline, they might have won several battles, but in the end, the victory of the war would definitely belong to China, and the price paid would be much less than in history.

Of course, this is not the time to fight to the death with the Japanese, and if the war can be confined to Qingdao and the Japanese will retreat in the face of difficulties, it will also be a very ideal result. This will be done through diplomatic efforts to use Britain, France, the United States, and other countries to oppress Japan. The Entente invited Japan to participate in the war, but they did not want Japan to dominate China, or even Asia. Japan does not send troops to fight in Europe, but only cares about its own interests, and this will certainly arouse dissatisfaction, and even vigilance and resistance from Britain, France, and other countries. Japan, which is alone and unable to speak, will certainly not be able to confront China for a long time.

In Chen Wenqiang's assumption, there will inevitably be a war between China and Japan around Qingdao, and whether the Germans take the initiative to return it or the Chinese army forcibly seize it, Japan will definitely not give up. The war is stalemate because China is well prepared, and both sides will suffer large losses. In the end, Britain, France, the United States, and other countries conducted diplomatic mediation, and China and Japan boycotted the war, and the Qingdao war came to an end.

Although this is only an assumption, Chen Wenqiang has synthesized various considerations and combined various historical factors.

The German government soon sent a telegram to Falkingham and the envoy to China about the terms of the secret agreement proposed by Chen Wenqiang, asking them to carefully assess the value of the quid pro quo offered by the Chinese side and submit a detailed report.

Although the Germans considered China's concerns somewhat frivolous, they analyzed the situation in the Far East after Britain entered the war and came to a similar conclusion to the Chinese government. That is, if Britain participates in the European War, in order to contain the German Jiaozhou Bay Fleet in the Far East, it will definitely have to rely on the Japanese Combined Fleet, so it is logical to pull Japan into the war. In other words, if the preconditions assumed by the Chinese government exist, China's concerns are not unreasonable.

Of course, Wilhelm II did not think that this precondition would actually be fulfilled at this time. Therefore, he was very unimpressed with China's request for Qingdao. On the contrary, he was overjoyed by China's commitments, believing that it was in fact a matter of time before China joined the Allied bloc and had in fact pulled China into the German chariot.

Accompanied by Chen Wenqiang, the German delegation visited several large Sino-German joint venture factories, visited Jinan, Qingdao, Tianjin, and finally arrived in Beijing. In Beijing, the Germans were given a grand reception, and President Soong not only received them at the first time, but also set up a state banquet to welcome them.

At this relatively sensitive moment, the high-profile diplomacy between China and Germany has aroused great concern on the part of the Entente countries. Britain, in particular, is extremely wary of a possible alliance between China and Germany.

"Mr. Minister, will there be a war with Germany?" Minister Zhu Erdian's secretary asked worriedly: "You, you know, I have a lot of stocks in my hands. If war breaks out, the price will definitely plummet. ”

Zhu Erdian looked at the scenery outside the car window, didn't turn his head, and said slowly: "Buy some gold!" ”

The secretary was silent for a moment, and said tentatively: "Even if war breaks out, it will definitely end soon, isn't it?" ”

"Soon after?" Zhu Erdian turned his head and asked mockingly: "How long did it take us to defeat the Boers?" Do you think the Germans are easier to deal with?"

The secretary opened his mouth, unable to speak, and it was indeed too risky to bet on a short-term war. Moreover, he determined from Zhu Erdian's suggestion that there was a great possibility of the outbreak of war in Europe, and that the war would not end in a short period of time.

The first phase of capital construction in the capital city of Beijing has basically come to an end.

The roads have been widened, the city's drainage system has finally been built, and although there are not many places to build a large number of buildings due to financial problems, it has gradually acquired the style of a modern metropolis. The streets are full of Oriental cars and cars, and the mule carts and horse-drawn carts that used to fill the city are increasingly being pushed out of the inner city. This busy scene gives the city another kind of political center bearing.

Yuan Shikai withdrew his gaze from the car window, and couldn't help but be vigilant. The atmosphere of the new dynasty has long been revealed, and the Baath Party has money and guns, as well as the powerful but invisible Ministry of State Security and the Investigation Bureau, and anyone can see that the stability of the regime is stable.

There were those who opposed the Baath Party, but they were all suppressed. The Baath Party is not a bodhisattva of kindness, on the surface it seems to be tolerant and generous, tolerant of all rivers, but if it does not attack the enemy, it is enough, it is ruthless, fast and accurate, and it is famous, which has to be admired, and it has to make people vigilant and self-disciplined at all times.

In particular, the reorganization of the League has sounded the alarm for everyone, and only by playing according to the rules can we have a foothold in the country, otherwise- (To be continued.) )