The response of U.S. economic policymakers and mainstream economists to new technological and economic shifts has focused on three areas:

The first is tax cuts plus investment in the military, investment in infrastructure, new technologies

In order to cultivate its own motivation for the development of enterprises, the Reagan administration carried out large-scale tax cuts for the first time in the history of the United States, canceled many strict regulations on enterprises, ensured that enterprises had a relatively relaxed development environment, and increased defense spending and implemented the Star Wars program to promote the vigorous development of domestic high-tech industries and manufacturing industries. In contrast, the Obama administration's initiatives are more targeted, with more money being invested in infrastructure and research and development of new technologies while cutting taxes.

In the current Clinton administration, the main focus has begun to focus on the latter two areas.

One aspect is that the United States needs to attract more investors, and in the United States in a period of transition, foreign investment plays a twofold key role.

First, if we want to successfully achieve industrial upgrading, it means that we must have a large amount of funds to take over the relatively backward industries, promote social employment, so that the newly liberated resources can be deployed in emerging industries, and lay the necessary foundation for the development of new technologies.

Second, the implementation of an expansionary fiscal policy in times of economic recession will inevitably lead to a rising fiscal deficit, and if we want to avoid the deficit's leading effect on inflation, we must make up for the deficit by selling government bonds, and foreign funds are undoubtedly the main purchasing force.

During the Reagan era, the United States attracted mainly Japan, which introduced laws to encourage foreign investment on the one hand, and used various means on the other. Japanese companies are encouraged to invest in the U.S., either actively or passively. For example, in 1981, after the United States asked Japan to automatically restrict the export of cars to the United States, the major Japanese automobile companies bypassed the quota. All must choose to invest in factories in the United States to maintain market share in the United States.

By the time of the Obama administration, China had become the largest creditor of the United States. The Obama administration's eyes have naturally turned to China*. On the one hand, the United States has contributed to the outbreak and spread of the European debt crisis in a certain way, fundamentally creating a situation in which China has only one direction in which US Treasury bonds can be invested, and on the other hand, raising trade barriers for the export of Chinese goods to the United States will eventually lead to a sharp increase in the amount of investment in the United States, so as to ensure the completion of the industrial upgrading of the United States.

In this regard, Clinton only needs to continue the policies of the Obama administration to continue the important transformation work of the United States, but this also requires the Clinton administration to maintain relations with China.

And the real job that needs to be done by the Clinton administration is the last one. That is a hard-line foreign policy, and the reason why Hillary Clinton was elected as the new president of the United States is very closely related to her consistent hard-line foreign style.

In the face of weak domestic economy and drastic changes in the international pattern, the US government still wants to maintain the hegemony of the US dollar and use a single means to maximize its own interests. During the Cold War, the U.S. government did not hesitate to have bad relations with the Western European allies in order to curb the rising momentum of the Soviet Union, believing that the Soviet Union would not respond drastically, and unscrupulously imposed high-pressure military and economic sanctions on it. This led to the deterioration of the domestic economic situation in the Soviet Union.

However, in the face of a rising Somalia, the same approach to the Soviet Union could not be replicated, and the Clinton administration chose a different path. Maintain the hegemony of the dollar. That is to co-opt more countries, tie them up with dollars and economies, and then complement them with military strength. Let more and more countries be inseparable from the United States.

For now, the Clinton administration's approach has undoubtedly been successful. In just a few years, India has become the most solid partner of the United States. The U.S. has poured a large amount of dollars into India to help India complete its industrial and infrastructure construction, while India has bought a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds, taking on the risk of the U.S. economy.

And militarily, India has also begun to rely on the United States, although India now has its own shipbuilding industry, but there is still too much technology and equipment to import from the United States, even the Indian Ocean proud computer industry, also needs the support of the Americans.

Once the United States stops providing technical support to India, India's so-called military industry will be completely extinguished, and the Indian Navy's five aircraft carrier battle groups and three Kitty Hawk-class ships will probably have to be towed back to India by tugboats.

The reason why Obama gave India all the technology and aircraft carriers with confidence was that he aimed at the lifeblood of the Indians and firmly grasped the key points of all technologies, so that the Indians had to rely on the United States, otherwise India's industry would not be able to operate, and the aircraft carriers could only stay in the port and rust.

And the Indians, who are gradually accustomed to becoming stronger, are naturally not willing to return to the original situation where they have to rely on the world for everything, although they still have to rely on the United States, but India can complete its own production of most other things.

It is precisely because of India, coupled with NATO, that the United States can continue to maintain its current status as the world hegemon, of course, this is also inseparable from the rapid development of the United States itself, and being tough on foreign countries is inseparable from military support.

In six years, three supercarriers in Somalia have joined the naval combat sequence, and the fourth supercarrier is about to be launched, and the United States is not losing much, in six years, the three Ford-class have also completed the launching work, and began the next stage of preparation for the construction of the three aircraft carriers, and the hull module of the fourth Ford-class aircraft carrier has been produced and is in the assembly stage.

It can be said that the development of the United States in terms of navy alone is only a little slower than that of Somalia, and this is still the efficiency of construction during the non-war period, once the United States enters a state of full-scale war, it is fully capable of building a Ford-class aircraft carrier battle group in a year, or even faster.

However, in order to seek military superiority over Somalia, the United States has now reached trillions of dollars in military spending, and in addition to research expenses, the cost of direct procurement of military equipment has reached $400 billion a year.

Such huge military spending has put the Clinton administration under tremendous pressure at home, and although the economic and technological transformation has been successful, increasing employment and new economic growth points, the United States still retains the title of the world's largest military bloc and economy. But trillions of military expenditures have also made this superpower feel extremely stressed.

For the time being, there are contradictions in the United States. It has reached a very dangerous situation, and there is a contradiction in employment. The gap between the rich and the poor, the contradiction of taxation, the contradiction of race, and the dwindling welfare ...... A series of social problems brought about by the US government system have forced the Clinton administration to consider the adverse consequences of a further arms race.

It has to be said that the extreme asymmetry in Somalia's economic and military development has made the United States see the possibility of completely dragging down Somalia, but the facts have further told the United States that Somalia's military is developing rapidly, but there is no conflict with the domestic economy. Behind Li Lan is a small treasury, and it is this mysterious small treasury that supports the huge army of Somalia.

The United States has repeatedly estimated the limits of Li Lan's endurance, but the result has been miscalculated again and again, to the point that the United States has gradually become the country that has suffered the most damage in this arms race.

This is unacceptable to the United States, the United States relied on the arms race to successfully drag down the Soviet Union, but now the United States is facing the dilemma of being dragged down, Hillary's think tank has come to a very important conclusion, Somalia has been in foreign wars again and again. The vitality of the Somali army has not been fundamentally damaged, but it has been strengthened by war after war. Another point is that they do not know the limit of Li Lan's endurance, so blindly carrying out armament development. It's unwise.

When it comes to the arms race, the Americans naturally have incomparably rich experience, and the United States and the Soviet Union have gone through the course of the Cold War for half a century. It finally ended with the collapse of the USSR and the outing. Was the collapse of the Soviet Union dragged down by an increasingly high-profile arms race? The answer should be yes.

Compared with Somalia now, the Soviet Union was actually even more difficult to deal with. In the seventies of the last century, the Soviet economy showed an upward momentum. At one point, the production of oil and steel surpassed that of the United States. But Brezhnev then overestimated the shape. Taking advantage of the strategic contraction of the United States, it has infiltrated the Middle East, Central America and Africa, and even sent troops to Afghanistan. The United States could not bear it anymore, and finally quickly picked up the economic stick again, and imposed a round of severe sanctions on the Soviet Union in 1979, including freezing about 155 million yuan of applications for the export of advanced technology to the Soviet Union, ending grain exports to the Soviet Union, and so on. In the absence of overwhelming military and political superiority, economic superiority is the weight to break the balance. However, because the Soviet Union had too wide a front, its economic difficulties were too great, especially the small Afghan war, which caused the Soviet Union's economy to lose too much blood, and more than 40 billion yuan was thrown into Afghanistan, and the injury was not light. 、

Military exports and expansionist actions have always been a developmental necessity of the arms race. The powerful government with force will never be satisfied with showing off its muscles, but will have to toss until the kidney is lost. Military expansion without strong economic support is bound to be short-lived. The ills of economic development were already a long-standing problem in the Soviet Union, which spent more on its military than the United States, which meant that the Soviet Union drove high-speed tanks without brakes. And the consequences of long-term disregard for people's livelihood have also caused more and more widespread political centrifugation.

The lessons of the collapse of the Soviet Union have made the United States see the future crisis, the same huge military spending, the same huge domestic social contradictions, and the same dissatisfaction with flexing muscles, and the Iraq war was even more symptomatic of the Soviet Union's defeat in Afghanistan.

Fortunately, the United States now has a strong economic support that the Soviet Union did not have, Somalia cannot deal a fatal economic blow to the United States, and it has many powerful allies who can share the pressure. It can be said that this is the capital that the United States can still support, but this kind of economic and military capital that surpasses other countries is not used to squander in the arms race.

The Clinton administration, which has taken over the power of the United States, naturally cannot put the United States on the road of no return, otherwise there is no need for war to bury the United States, and the huge contradictions at home and abroad are enough to destroy the United States, which has dominated the world for nearly a century.

However, when the Americans began to think about ending or alleviating this arms race in this way, the United States suddenly realized that they had not provoked this arms race from the beginning.

The United States has always wanted to maintain this kind of military superiority, and it has no choice but to adopt the method of consolidating its military superiority in order to achieve military strategic superiority. In this arms race, the United States has no choice but to face the war, and whether or not to stop the endless construction of military equipment is the source of Somalia, not the United States itself.

This also brings up a very important issue: The United States wants to end this arms race, but Li Lan has never stopped developing. There are only two options left for the United States, one is not to fight, watch the military strategic superiority being seized by Somalia, and carry out a passive defense strategy.

The alternative is a war, a war that puts an end to this endless arms race once and for all. To put it simply, the development of armaments to the point of Somalia and the United States is no longer to satisfy the defense, but to satisfy the offensive, and since the ultimate goal is to attack, then the desire for such an offensive should be unleashed.

The United States has been studying the choice for a long time, and when Li Lan visits Iran and makes the decision to send the aircraft carrier to Iran, it is tantamount to forcing the United States to make a decision.

The United States has shifted the pressure to its allies, and now Somalia is doing the same, further eroding America's advantage. What worries the United States the most is that in the past few years, Somalia has been stepping up its contacts with South American countries, and Li Lan's diplomatic direction is rapidly leaning toward South America. If this kind of development continues, the United States' advantage will become smaller and smaller in the future.

Once all the advantages begin to be lost, there is only one option left for the United States, and that is the point of no return.

Naturally, the United States will not take the road of no return, and the economic sanctions similar to those imposed on the Soviet Union in the past cannot be replicated by the United States in its policy toward Somalia, and its strategic defense does not conform to the long-term development path of the United States. And in the face of an increasingly complex international landscape, the United States needs an opportunity to reshape the international system.

However, this does not mean that the United States will personally participate in a new war. There are many opportunities in front of the United States, and Somalia has such a huge threat today, mainly from one person, and that is Li Lan. Somalia without Li Lan is equivalent to a caged beast, and although it still has great lethality, it can no longer threaten the United States.

However, it is not a simple matter to put this beast in a cage, and it may hurt itself. It may even evolve to the point where the United States itself faces the wrath of the beast.

Opportunities and challenges coexist, and Hillary Clinton made her choice early on, and this qiē is coming. (To be continued......)