Chapter 1048: Strategic Tail
After Shen Honglie finished speaking, he looked at the other people sitting in the room, Zhao Bei looked calm, Lan Tianwei and Jiang Fangzhen also looked calm, but the adjutants looked surprised, obviously,
However, as soon as he finished saying this, Shen Honglie suddenly found that the word "encircling Wei to save Zhao" seemed to be used inappropriately at this time, on the one hand, the "madman president" in front of him was surnamed Zhao, which was somewhat abrupt, on the other hand, this Sino-British dispute between Hong Kong, in the final analysis, was actually Zhao Bei had nothing to do, and deliberately looked for trouble with the British, but he really didn't need Shen Honglie to "save".
After all, the dispute between China and Britain over Hong Kong has not yet reached the point of exhaustion, and judging from the current negotiations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the British government's position has softened, and the dispute may be resolved through diplomatic means.
Sure enough, after everyone in the room was silent for a while, Lan Tianwei spoke, he obviously disagreed with Shen Honglie's opinion, which was somewhat unexpected by Shen Honglie, because according to Lan Tianwei's consistent performance, he is a standard "hawk" figure, a hardliner on the outside, and Shen Honglie's current suggestion should be in line with the "hawk" proposition.
Shen Honglie has been the governor of the leased land on Bangka Island for a long time, and he is relatively unfamiliar with domestic political issues, so when Lan Tianwei expressed his cautious opinion, he did not talk nonsense anymore, but waited for Zhao Bei to speak.
Xiuhao also has some truth in saying that the current softening of the British position does not necessarily mean that the dispute cannot be resolved through diplomatic negotiations. But on the other hand, what Cheng Zhang said also makes sense, if you don't give Britain, an old power, a little color, it doesn't know how many bowls of dry rice China can eat now! In the struggle between countries, the backing of force is the most important and fundamental, and this point is also reasonable as Cheng Zhang said, the so-called strong country must be the emerging power standing on the corpse of another strong country. ”
Zhao Bei's few words can be regarded as a reconciliation of this mud, neither opposing Shen Honglie's use of force, nor abandoning Lan Tianwei's political settlement, in the final analysis, it is still a middle method.
The main reason why Zhao Bei chose the position of the middle is that the development of the international situation cannot keep up with Zhao Bei's strategy, Zhao Bei does not want to shoot the first shot, but he is not willing to let go of this good opportunity to defeat Britain in one fell swoop, in other words, Zhao Bei's position is now a little wavering.
The Sino-British dispute between Hong Kong and Hong Kong originated at the end of last year, and the cause was the difference in economic policy, but the fundamental reason was that Zhao Bei wanted to test the strategic bottom line of the United Kingdom, so he deliberately added fuel to the fire, and used this means to determine his next action and tactics, which is to continue to sing "literary opera"? Or do you want to go all-out with the UK?
Hong Kong was leased to Britain by the Manchu court, and is now a British colony, enjoying the colonial treatment of the British Empire, since the beginning of the Great Depression that swept the world in 1931, the British government has tightened its trade policy, established tariff barriers externally, and further integrated the unified imperial market internally, whether it is a dominion or a colony, it is regarded by the British government as a link in the overall market of the British Empire, and Hong Kong is naturally no exception, starting from Hong Kong, Goods destined for other British colonies or dominions also enjoy the protection of the British Empire's tariff barriers and preferential market policies.
It is precisely because of this special treatment in Hong Kong that since 1933, many Chinese mainland businessmen saw the business opportunities, so they joined hands with Hong Kong Chinese businessmen to organize a number of staggering commodity smuggling networks to smuggle Chinese mainland manufactured goods into Hong Kong by boat, and then transformed these goods manufactured in Chinese mainland factories into "Made in Hong Kong" industrial products through leather bag companies set up in Hong Kong, and then sold from Hong Kong to the vast market of the entire British Empire. The establishment of this trade system not only brought a huge source of money to the merchants, but also partially solved the problem of the backlog of industrial products in China, so the central government has adopted a blind eye to this kind of "reverse smuggling" activities, and the merchants are safe and do not have to worry about being punished by the law.
However, at the same time, the interests of the British Empire have been seriously damaged, not only the loss of tariffs is serious, but also the British industrial products have further lost the market, in the face of cheap "made in Hong Kong", British local goods have been completely defeated, making the British industrial depression situation more serious, which has caused great panic in the British government, although many representations to the Chinese side, but no substantial progress has been made, smuggling continues, and the depression is also deepening.
After two years of arguing in panic, the British government finally made an important policy at the end of last year, under the pretext that the Chinese government did not fulfill the disarmament agreements reached with Britain and France and connived at unscrupulous businessmen to harm the interests of British businessmen, the British government announced that from the following year, Hong Kong's national treatment in the market system of the British Empire would be abolished, and all dependencies of the British Empire would have to impose a special tariff on goods imported from Hong Kong, although the tax rate was much lower than the tariff rate of tariff barriers, but this was enough to offset most of the "Made in Hong Kong" The advantage of cheapness.
As soon as this discriminatory policy of the British government was introduced, it immediately caused an uproar, not only did the Chinese government protest against it, but the entire Chinese world was in an uproar, and many Chinese finally woke up to the fact that the British government still regarded the Chinese as second-class human beings, and even the colonial Chinese under its rule could not enjoy national treatment.
The situation is very good, Zhao Bei is quick to act, and decided to take immediate action to add fuel to the fire, and develop this incident into a symbol, and at the same time, through the "attention" of this incident, to test the bottom line of the British government's policy in the Far East, so there is this "Sino-British Hong Kong dispute", and the main purpose of the Chinese Navy to organize a fleet voyage is also to show strength and declare determination.
Now the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is still negotiating with the British side, and it is still difficult to understand where the bottom line of the British government is, but one thing is certain, for the Sino-British conflict, the Japanese government is trying its best to instigate, Japan hopes that China will fire the first shot of the war against Britain, and then Japan will quickly follow up, just like the Nanyang War back then, the two countries will cooperate to squeeze British power out of the Nanyang Islands.
However, Zhao Bei still maintained a cautiousness, although he knew very well that the British government and the French government were now engaged in "appeasement" in Europe, and were "responsive" to Nazi Germany, but the position of the British government and the French government on the Far East policy was quite uncertain, which can be seen from the last Papua crisis, it was in that international crisis that the British government and the French government manipulated the League of Nations, issued sanctions threats against Japan, which acted without authorization, and even transferred the fleets of the two countries to the coast of Australia. Several joint naval exercises with the Australian fleet forced Japan to spit out the bones it had eaten, and the Republic of Papua was rebuilt, and Japan's international prestige was severely damaged, which led to an attempted military coup, and although the rebel forces of the Imperial Japanese Army occupying Tokyo were quickly disintegrated, Japan's militarization began to accelerate, and now the Japanese government is effectively in the hands of the military department.
Although they showed a tough stance on the Papua issue, on the other hand, the British and French governments sometimes showed a little "appeasement" on the Far East issue, as can be seen from the coup d'état in Siam (Thailand) of that year, when China and Japan supported the coup d'état, and eventually the Siamese government completely sided with China and Japan, but at that time, the British and French governments did not take any further action except for diplomatic protests, which seems to show that the two countries wavered in their Far East policy.
But where is the bottom line between Britain and France? If, like Japan, China takes direct military action to expand its sphere of influence in Southeast Asia, will Britain and France manipulate the League of Nations to take a tough stance as they did in the Papua crisis? And will the United States also join the sanctions camp?
A direct attack on Britain's colonies in Southeast Asia would definitely lead to war with Britain, but the crux of the matter was not here, but the attitude of France, the United States, especially the United States, since Roosevelt was elected president, the United States has begun to strengthen its armaments, the United States is very concerned about the current delicate situation in Southeast Asia, considering the "historical" position of the United States before the outbreak of the Pacific War, Zhao Bei had to worry that a conflict with Britain might provoke American interference, and whether Japan's naval power could be effectively used, It's not quite certain at the moment, after all, Japan's speculative mentality is very serious.
If there was to be a war with Great Britain, it was necessary to gain overall superiority on the battlefield as soon as possible, so that the US government could be cautious and at the same time Japan could be determined to attack Australia.
Therefore, once the bottom line of Britain is tested, Zhao Bei will decide whether to immediately enter the war against Britain, after all, the opportunity must not be lost, the time will not come, since the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War, the main attention of the British government has been diverted to that war, and now the British king who does not love the country and loves beauty is also making the British government embarrassed because of marriage problems, up and down.
The British government may make concessions on Hong Kong's trade issues, but it could also worsen relations with China as a result, and in either case, Zhao Bei must act accordingly.
Will the arrogant British government seek the support of the US government? Will the French government stand firmly on the side of the British government? At present, everything is unknown, history has been tampered with by Zhao Bei beyond recognition, Zhao Bei can no longer effectively learn from historical experience, now he must rely on his true judgment and comprehension, in actual actions little by little to test the bottom line of the British government's Far East policy.
There is no doubt that the seizure of British spheres of influence in Southeast Asia will ultimately require the intervention of force, but the question is, who will take the first shot? Zhao Bei very much hopes that Japan will shoot first, while the Japanese government wants China to shoot first, and both sides are secretly manipulating, and both hope that the other side will play the role of the firefighter for themselves.
When Zhao Bei formulated the strategic plan, Japan received the role of this "chestnut in the fire", Zhao Bei hoped to use Japan, not to be used by Japan, after all, in the norms of international exchanges, "justice and justice" also exist, although it is only a fig leaf, but after all, it is still inseparable, in order to eliminate the influence of Britain on Southeast Asia, not only need sufficient strength, but also need a high-sounding excuse.
Zhao Bei's creation of the "Sino-British dispute in Hong Kong" was to find a decent excuse for war, and when the time came, he would carry a banner of "recovering the country" to fight a war for hegemony in Southeast Asia, which would make the division famous and very beneficial to the improvement of national morale and army morale.
At that time, the reason why Zhao Bei was not in a hurry to solve the problem of the return of sovereignty in Hong Kong and Macao was that the main strategic focus was here, deliberately leaving a reason, and once it was needed in the future, it would be used, which was actually a "strategic tail", which was pulled by Zhao Bei, and the "strategic tail" of the same meaning also had the Far Eastern Republic and the Second Republic of Lanfang, but at present, these two "strategic tails" do not seem to be needed.
Zhao Bei's plan, the big men of the General Staff also agreed, however, in the specific implementation details, there are differences within the General Staff, Lan Tianwei is a "moderate faction", advocating slow progress, Jiang Fangzhen is a "rapid faction", advocating taking advantage of the British economic depression to swallow several British colonies in Southeast Asia in one fell swoop, Malaya, Burma is the prey of Deputy Chief of Staff Chiang, in this regard, his ideas are somewhat similar to Shen Honglie.
It was precisely this internal disagreement that made Zhao Bei's position even more vacillating, and before the General Staff agreed on it, he decided to wait, waiting for the Foreign Affairs Department to test the bottom line of the British government's Far East policy, and at the same time, he also tested the United States' position through the ambassador to the United States. cautious support stance".
It is not enough to have a "cautious support stance", once China and Britain go to war, no one dares to guarantee that the German Führer will not make a secret deal with the British government, after all, in the "historical" World War II he has a "criminal record", Britain is not the first target of the German Führer's elimination, in order to avoid a two-front war, the German Führer did not rule out signing an armistice treaty with Britain in order to concentrate on dealing with the Soviet Union, but the British government at that time did not agree, considering that it is now 1936, The British Prime Minister is not the notoriously tough Mr. Churchill, and the German Führer has not yet revealed his true face as a warmonger, so will the British government make a secret deal with the German Führer? Zhao Bei had no confidence at all.
This strengthened Zhao Bei's determination to wait and see, and at the same time he also decided to further strengthen the construction of armaments, this time he led the task force to visit the South Seas, his important purpose was to go to Bangka Island to inspect the construction of local military facilities, but also to prepare to go to Lanfang to see the local Chinese views of the British, after all, once this war against Britain started, it is inevitable that Lanfang will be involved, and the morale of the people must be taken into account in the overall strategy.
Since this specific tactic can not be determined, then Zhao Bei can only be with the mud, what Lan Tianwei said makes sense, what Shen Honglie said also makes sense, as for who will make the decision in the end, it is President Zhao who has the final say.
A few people sat in the small living room to discuss strategy, all of them were uniformed, there was no idle character, and there was naturally no need to be too taboo when talking, how to eliminate Britain's influence in Southeast Asia, how to incorporate Southeast Asia into the Greater China Economic Circle, these topics did open the eyes of the adjutants, but they also understood that these words can be said here, but they can't be taken out to say, international politics is like this.
The strategy meeting lasted for more than an hour, and then it ended, by this time it was already dark, and Zhao Bei instructed Shen Honglie to prepare a dinner in the governor's palace, and he wanted to entertain President Lan Fang.
"I heard that the center intends to hand over the decision-making of local defense and foreign policy to the Lanfang government, is this serious?"
After instructing the housekeeper to prepare the banquet, Shen Honglie couldn't help but ask Zhao Bei.
"Exactly. An important purpose of my visit to Lanfang this time is to discuss this matter with Lanfang. Zhao Bei nodded.
"However, if there is a war against Britain in the future, Lan Fang's national defense and diplomacy are not controlled by our side, how can we use Lan Fang?" Shen Honglie was puzzled.
Lan Tianwei and Jiang Fangzhen both smiled and looked at Zhao Bei, this question, they had asked it before, Zhao Bei told them the answer, and now, Shen Honglie also needs an answer.
Zhao Bei also smiled and reasoned.
"Chengzhang, you still have to take a long-term view. The war between China and Britain is by no means comparable to the war between China and the Netherlands, this war is either not fought, if it is fought, it will be a real large-scale war, it will not end in a short time, we must be prepared for a long-term war, and we cannot fight alone, the assistance of Japan and Siam is not enough, we also need the assistance of nationalists in Southeast Asia, so we have to build a window here in Nanyang to show the image of China's liberators.
We want the nationalists in Southeast Asia to see that China is not a colonizer, China is a liberator, and Lanfang is the first goal of China's liberation, Southeast Asia is now ruled and oppressed by European and American powers, its sovereignty has been lost, its economy is withering, and a liberator is needed, and China is this liberator, today, we liberate them politically and drag them away from the colonial rule of Britain and France, and tomorrow, we will liberate them economically and drag their economy away from the colonial system of Europe. Now, let Lanfang realize the 'independence' of national defense and diplomacy, this is political liberation, only after political liberation, there will be economic liberation, and in the future, economic liberation will inevitably bring about an 'Asian economic circle'. ”
"Liberators? Asian Economic Circle? ”
Shen Honglie was stunned for a moment, a little strange, but after thinking about it further, he suddenly understood, so he let go of this thought.
When it comes to international strategy, it is the president who thinks far-reachingly.
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