Chapter 1558: A Matter of Time
Why does time affect the judgment of Wang Rongmin, the reason is very simple In the current Chinese officialdom, under the leadership of Yang Yuanzhao, economic indicators have become an important indicator for judging the promotion of officials, no matter how relevant and capable, as long as they cannot be in the economy, have attainments, and benefit one side of the water and soil, they will not be able to be further promoted, starting from the county level, the city level, and the provincial level. Pen % fun % Pavilion www.biquge.info
In the view of the Central Organization Department, Wang Rongmin's ability is okay, but he has not surpassed others, after all, the high-level still occupies a position, and under the premise of being quite young, the possibility of further advancements is very small, and they also need to have higher requirements for their ability, and they must far exceed the occupants in order to be able to replace the other party's position, which has always been the healthy competition advocated by Yang Yuanzhao.
Wang Rongmin now, put forward the Kra Canal project, at least to prove that he is worthy of affirmation in terms of international and comprehensive vision, the previous foundation plus this project, even if it is not possible now, it can be in the future, but if this project deviates and does not achieve the expected results, it will definitely affect Wang Rongmin, even if it is barely promoted, this will be a stain, plague his entire term, and have a rather adverse impact on him.
In this era, when the war was going on, the whole of China, a few people looked at the post-war period, and the war could not go on endlessly, which everyone knows, but in the midst of the war, it is natural to judge according to the present, in this case, it is easy to ignore the possibility of the end of the war, Yang Yuanzhao can be sure that anyone who makes this report will be the same as Wang Rongmin, and the judgment will be based on the data during the war, not the data before or after the war.
Yang Yuanzhao knew very well that during the war years, China would have more merchant ships going to the Middle East through the Indian Ocean, on the one hand, pulling back crude oil from Germany, which was almost out of nowhere, without Germany occupying Baku, without the 3B railway and the port of Basra, China would not have invested such a large merchant shipping capacity in the Middle East. When the war in Europe is over, the number of merchant ships will be reduced, unless Germany is still willing to export oil to China, otherwise, if you want to maintain the number of merchant ships, the only way to extract oil from the Middle East is to ensure that the canal will have enough ships to pass after the end of the war, and ensure that the canal will recover its costs.
Let Germany continue to guarantee the oil attack after the war, it is unlikely, although at the end of the war, this oil transportation will be guaranteed for a period of time, but the support for Germany will be reduced to about one-tenth of the war, will be greatly reduced, plus oil as the most important energy source in the future, with the development of ground trucks, airplanes and ships, has become more and more important, war time, this is no way, Germany in order to win the war, had to put more than 9 percent of the oil, are through pipelines and ships, Once the war is over, even if an agreement is signed, will Germany still do this, it will certainly not be able to do so, and it will do everything possible to break this contract.
The war has been carried out to this extent, if the war ends, there are two possibilities for Germany, one is that Germany is victorious, as the strongest country in Europe, it is possible to unify Western Europe under the premise that Germany will still obey China's words, Baku as a newly occupied territory, or a world-class oil field that produces oil, Germany will not use it for its own use and development, why is it cheap for nothing, China is now, as much as possible to develop Baku's oil resources, and even to a certain extent, with a devastating development, with only one purpose, Collect as much oil as you can from Baku.
In this era of oil has just been used, people have not yet realized that oil is a non-renewable resource, if the world is in such a development and use, oil will inevitably be exploited one day, what to do then, now have Southeast Asia, Siberia and the Middle East, the world's richest oil resources, as long as it is used carefully, China may not always use oil, but it will be the latest country in the world to run out of oil.
At present, in 1916, a total of more than 85 million tons of oil developed, and then as long as it reaches more than 15,000 tons per year, as long as the war lasts for 2 years, China is equivalent to saying that it has a large oil field with reserves of 400 million tons, which is quite huge even if it is placed in later generations, and the Daqing oilfield has been exploited for almost 50 years, and the cumulative total output is only 2 billion tons, which can already be used as a model for China, 300 million tons in 2 years, and if the war lasts for two more years, it will be 700 million tons.
Of course, there is another possibility for the end of the war in the future, that is, the defeat of Germany, it is not impossible, China has supported Germany a lot, Germany can fight like now, pressing the Entente to fight, it is impossible without China's support, even now, Germany's situation is good in all aspects, industrial and agricultural production has grown tremendously, and the self-sufficiency rate of agriculture for the first time exceeded 100%, but this is all a pioneering achievement completed with the support of China, once there is no support from China, It's like a castle on the beach, which is blown away by the waves.
It is true that now Germany has the absolute upper hand, occupying Belgium and occupying most of France, but the situation between the two sides in Bordeaux is opposed, and there are winners and losers for each other, once Germany's military strategy has a huge loophole, and the Entente countries seize the opportunity to annihilate the 2 million troops located on the front line, and continue to fight, Germany does not have the confidence to fight to the end with the Entente.
The total population of Germany is only about 80 million, and this population determines the maximum mobilization capacity of 8 million, not more than 10 million at most, but now, with the help of China, Germany has almost made the number of land forces close to 8 million, and more than 1 million are killed and severely disabled, which is already approaching the limit, and even if there are any, it is not much, and it will take time to prepare it.
2 million to 3 million elite troops on the front line were completely annihilated, and the Entente broke through the Bordeaux defense line, Germany could not be said to be a thousand miles away, at least the defeat was decided, as long as the Entente recovered France and Belgium, waiting for Germany, it could only be peace talks and a dignified withdrawal from the war, otherwise, it would be a catastrophe.
China's participation in the camp of the Allies is the inevitable result of strategy, and supporting Germany is also for China's interests, almost giving Germany a lot of benefits, there is Germany to stir up the situation, to disturb the whole Caucasian world, let them catch each other and fight each other, to create opportunities for China, from 1913 to the present, to create opportunities for China for four years, China also seized these opportunities, vigorously developed, and by last year, really came to the forefront, and the United States frontal war.
Once the German front line fails, when the defeat is like a mountain, it is impossible for China to send its own labor force to be a soldier, that is not China's choice, Germany can support it, once it fails, it is a quagmire, fall into that quagmire, even China is difficult to retreat, rather than investing in Germany, it is better to continue to expand itself, stabilize the current front, China and Europe, and the United States are equally far away, as long as they hold their own, at least the advantage of geographical advantage is occupied.
China can defend itself, and even look at the face of the German side, but in terms of oil resources, it is almost impossible to keep Baku, and on the premise of losing Baku, how can China let Germany fulfill its commitments, Baku is controlled by the Entente, and the large-scale oil resources built by China for Baku are basically wasted.
This is also China's development of Baku is very hesitant psychology, from beginning to end, China is very clear, China can obtain oil resources, that is, the current period of time, once this time is missed, then there is no, China investment stage, for the expansion project of Baku, at least more than 300 million US dollars, but therefore obtained stable and cheap oil, take 100 million tons a year, 300 million US dollars is equal to a ton of oil equal share of 3 US dollars, 300 million is a dollar, this is no problem at all, of course, In the eyes of these powers, oil resources are far from being of such high value, but in China, which has popularized motor vehicles and gradually improved in the petrochemical field, of course, it is very clear that the role of oil is far from being described below $10 per barrel, and it is at least about $40 to be considered a more reasonable price.
In the early days, China's petrochemical field, enjoy the advantages of these two aspects, on the one hand, in terms of cost, 10 US dollars a barrel of oil, in the petrochemical cost, almost the same as nothing, and on the other hand, China first involved in the petrochemical field, just stockings, is enough to make China make a lot of money, which is China's biggest pillar in the petrochemical.
Because of the particularity of Baku, time has naturally become a key factor, the canal can not be built within 2 years, when the war is over, China's huge merchant ships, will face the danger of where to go, the passage of canal ships will be greatly reduced, which will lengthen the repayment period, has an unnecessary impact on the Kra Canal, is it will affect Wang Rongmin's future, this is not a joke, at present, the whole of China is interested in the economic capacity of the premise, Wang Rongmin, there are very few people with an international vision, At the first time when the decision was made, Yang Yuanzhao was willing to protect him, and it was natural to consider this issue, in a certain sense, time has become the key to defining whether this project should be vigorously built. (To be continued.) )