Section 508 The period of détente before the war [I]
The situation in the Far East -- the situation in Russia and Japan -- can be described in one sentence, that is, it is a steady development in the midst of tension. Pen ~ fun ~ Cabinet www.biquge.info Jewish consortium tried to create a war with loans, and added a deadline to this war. Of course, this plan succeeded, but the war would not break out until the deadline came.
"Top-secret intelligence from Tokyo shows that Prime Minister Hirobumi Ito has been in disapproval of a war with Russia, which he believes is the most important and urgent issue for Japan to restore its economy."
"Who do you think will listen to him?" This is not a question, it is a rhetorical question.
But some people pretended not to hear.
"Except for his own people, no." George. Graham rightly said, "If the Japanese had accepted his claim, they wouldn't have signed that loan agreement with the Jewish consortium." As a matter of fact, the Japanese soldiers led by General Aritomo Yamaguchi were staunch fighters, as well as diplomatic departments and non-governmental figures. Because of the problems of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast China, they both want to go to war against Russia. ”
All this was known to Messerschmitt, as anyone with the most basic knowledge of the situation in the Far East would have known, and Graham was still fooling him with the old stuff. Resisting the urge to punch the bastard in the nose, he banged on the table.
"George, you know, it's not this shit I want to hear."
"I don't think that's ...... Well, well, you're right. Under the direct gaze of a stern, knife-sharp gaze, Graham swallowed all the unfinished nonsense back into his stomach and started over. The Russians are hurrying to build the Trans-Siberian Railway. If the railway could not be completed by that deadline, their hundreds of thousands of troops in the Far East would have lost the war because they could not get reinforcements and supplies. But everyone knows that the Trans-Siberian Railway is simply not going to be open in a year. ”
He paused, drank his water, and quietly observed Messerschmitt's face, seeing that he showed no signs of dissatisfaction, and went on as if to explain something. "The Russians had little money, and what was worse was that the Russian government valued the Trans-Siberian railway so much that in order to fully own and use it, St. Petersburg insisted that the state treasury bear the cost of the construction of the railway, and refused all private investment, foreign or domestic, and was not willing to lend money to France, even though the damned railway was now seriously overrun. In this matter, the Russians are as stupid and stubborn as the French......"
All are comments made from the perspective of the British. Messerschmitt remarks that he disagrees, and at the same time regrets Graham's political sense: if he had been a little sharper, he would have realized at once that the French were about to become friends with the English people, and would have fought with them against the threat of coming to Germany; The Russians, whose expansion in Central Asia had been curtailed, and their expansion in the Far East would have been stopped by the British alliance with Japan, would have turned around and fought Austria-Hungary for Eastern Europe, then with Germany, and finally with Britain and France.
The trend is clear, and the only possible change is whether the Japanese Empire can actually drive the Russians out of the Korean Peninsula and China, as London hopes.
Can the Japanese do it? Messerschmitt is still not completely sure, on the one hand, there is a huge gap between Japan's war capability and Russia's, the number of standing armies is only a fraction of that of Russia's huge army, and the navy is also very bad, and the Boxer War shows that the Japanese military has extremely inferior tactical level, dullness, and lack of flexibility; But on the other hand, Qin Lang believed that the Japanese army would be able to gain an advantage in the war and drive the Russian army out of northeastern China - he never made a mistake, he did not say anything wrong, and this added a lot of points to the Japanese.
In the end, the Russians faced no less difficulties than the Japanese, and the most basic point was, as George . Graham has already said that they will not be able to complete the construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway in less than a year, because they lack the funds and the construction is very difficult.
And these two issues affect each other. When the Russians began construction of the 7,000 versts of the Trans-Siberian Railway in 1891, St. Petersburg was expected to last 12 years, requiring an annual investment of 30 million rubles, of which 350 million rubles were fully invested. In reality, however, the Trans-Siberian Railway has already cost 1.4 billion rubles[Note 2] and, according to the recalculations, it will take at least three years to complete.
Therefore, it is clear that if the construction cost of the Trans-Siberian Railway can reach more than five times the initial estimate according to the normal progress of the project, then the demand for the acceleration of the project will definitely cost St. Petersburg another 100 million rubles.
This is not an easy task for the embarrassed, financially distressed Russian government.
But most importantly, almost all railway technologists around the world believe that the railway will not be completed in less than a year, even if the Russians increase their spending significantly.
The Russian Army was almost lost.
"You can imagine how angry Emperor Nicholas II was." Graham laughed and slapped the table hard, not paying any attention to the startled glances thrown around him, "You know, Friedrich, the Emperor remembers the Japanese slash in his head. ”
Messerschmitt remained silent. Of course, he knew very well what Graham meant, a very famous old story, the "Otsu Incident": on May 11, 1891, in the city of Otsu, Japan, a Japanese policeman named Tsuda Mizo slashed with his saber the Russian Crown Prince Nikolai, who was visiting Japan. Aleksandrovich's head, because the patriotic policeman believed that Nikolai had ambitions to invade the East, and the purpose of the visit was to find out the situation in Japan and prepare for future wars......
Very funny motives, but the consequences caused by Tsuda Sanzang are not funny at all, except that he himself was sentenced to life imprisonment and died in prison, the Minister of Internal Affairs Saigo and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Aoki Shuzo were forced to resign, and the Meiji Emperor had to lead the imperial doctor to Kyoto to apologize, and then personally escorted Nikolai back to the Russian battleship "Twelve Apostles" anchored in Kobe, and finally, Nikolai was made aware of the Japanese vigilance, hatred and hostility towards Russia, and kept it in his heart. It serves as a reference and basis for formulating policies toward Japan.
It goes without saying that Nicholas II, who has already been crowned emperor, must have the idea of revenge against the Japanese in his head, and of course it is impossible to tolerate the Japanese cutting him in the head again, but in the face of objective facts, the emperor's personal will has no meaning.
He had no choice but to find another way to undo the disastrous consequences of the railway's failure to connect.
"What are the movements of the Russian Navy?" Messerschmitt asked.
"Not yet, although there is information that Nicholas II intends to transfer the warships of the Baltic Fleet to form a new Pacific ship, but this plan will not be easy to implement at all." Graham pouted and said, "Port Arthur is difficult to accommodate so many warships, and the maintenance capacity is also limited, which is not suitable for the long-term stationing of the fleet, and Vladivostok, that place is even worse, the winter ice period is close to four months, and there is a lot of fog in the summer and autumn, and the navigation situation is very unsatisfactory." ”
"How's Jiaozhou Bay?"
"Jiaozhou Bay? A few years ago, the Russians really intended to occupy that place, and as a result, the Germans took the lead, what else could the Russians do? Can only watch. ”
"But Wilhelm II ......"
Wilhelm II told the Russians that in a diplomatic note written by the German Chancellor on his behalf, Germany would occupy Jiaozhou Bay in order to "draw closer to the Russian sphere of influence" in order to "draw closer to the Russian sphere of influence" in order to "thwart your intentions by force, and any provocateur who attempts to thwart your intentions by force will be met head-on by your fleet and by the German fleet fighting side by side with you." Of course, the provocateurs accused by the German emperor were, undoubtedly, the Japanese and the British, because "they have now all become our common enemies" [note 3].
Moreover, Wilhelm II gave assurances that he had a "firm hope" that "the fleets of our two countries" would "sink their fleets in the Pacific Ocean" before England and Japan were ready for war, and later, when the Russians took control of Arthur, the Emperor sent a congratulatory telegram to Nicholas II, declaring that "Russia and Germany, standing at the entrance to the Yellow Sea, are the embodiment of St. George and St. Michael, guarding together the Far Eastern cross, guarding the gateway to the Asian continent against the Yellow Peril" - it must be recognized, The German Emperor was unusually wary of the Yellow Peril.
Of course, in any case, he did make assurances to Russia......
"Would you believe the rhetoric of the German Emperor, who had always been open-mouthed?" Graham asked, with a rather strange expression on his face, because he knew what Messerschmitt thought of Wilhelm II: in addition to contempt, he still despised it, even if he had been German.
Hanoverians. Graham suddenly remembered that Messerschmitt had never recognized the German Empire established by Prussia, as if it were some kind of psychological stubbornness.
From this point of view, it seems that the question he just asked is just for ...... Jeer?
"So the Russians have no intention of stationing the fleet or using Jiaozhou Bay?" Pretending not to see the confusion in Graham's eyes, Messerschmitt said as if to himself, "Only then will the Russian fleet have to set off before war breaks out—"
"I have to say, that's stupid." Thinking of the consequences of the Russian Navy's adoption of that plan, even though he was so afraid of the person sitting opposite, Graham couldn't help but interject, "From the Baltic Sea to the Far East, most of the ports where you can dock and replenish fuel belong to the British Empire, and we are allies with Japan." We can sink the Russian navy at any time, or seize its ships, or leave it without supplies and rest, if London so wishes......"
"Yes," Messerschmitt shrugged, "the Russians are in a terrible situation. ”
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Note: 7000 versts is the distance from Chelyabinsk to Vladivostok, about 7420 km
Note 2: From 1891 to 1901, the Trans-Siberian Railway cost 1.46 billion rubles
Note 3: The quotation marks refer to the German Emperor's explanation to Russia in 1898 when Germany invaded Jiaozhou Bay
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