Section 630 Inflationary pressures
Pan Xun didn't lose, because this time Mi Qing and Li Fuan worked together, Yang Chao added fuel to the fire behind the scenes, almost the three of them worked together, and finally let him grab 40% of the votes, in fact, not to mention that he had 40% of the votes, even if he lost miserably and got less than 10% of the votes, then he also won. Pen ~ fun ~ pavilion www.biquge.info
Because he proved to the world that he can stand on the opposite side of Yang Chao and fight Yang Chao directly, his opponent is no longer Mi Qing, no longer a politician like Li Fuan, but a top political giant like Yang Chao.
Sometimes, your opponent proves your worth, and your opponent determines your status.
After this battle, Pan Xun became a person who could directly fight with Yang Chao, so all the political forces that did not deal with Yang Chao and were suppressed by Yang Chao over the years will gather around him to form a new political force, he won, not the election, but a banner for himself, which will gather a very considerable force for him.
After the election, Yang Chao did not rush to leave, he planned to stay a few more days.
There is no need to rush in Siberia, even if poison gas is used, after Irkutsk is not taken in one go, Soviet Russia will not be able to advance, of course, the tsarist army will not be able to advance, and the war will probably fall into the stalemate of the First World War.
In the final analysis, the two sides are evenly matched, even in World War II, the Nazis met the Soviet army in the end is not to be pulled into a state of protracted war, now the Soviet army is large in number, but the command is relatively rigid, and the weapons occupy a disadvantage, plus the offensive line is too long, in fact, when the front line is clashed, the Tsarist Army is often inferior in strength, so no one can eat anyone in the short term, can only enter a stalemate.
What the Soviets plan to do, Yang Chao did not know, they had now given up the blind offensive, but held on to the area of Angara Port. The plan of the Tsarist Army, Yang Chao was very clear. Rommel and other officers suggested delaying the counterattack after the first snow fell in Siberia, just as Napoleon had done in Russia, and Siberia was difficult for the Soviets. As soon as it snows, their logistical supplies will be in trouble, and then it will be time to counterattack, and the most important thing for now is to make decisions for winter operations, stockpile supplies and conduct the necessary training.
All think. Time was on the side of the tsar, as time went by, the training of the soldiers on the tsar's side became more and more formal, the use of superior weapons was more handy, and the coordination of various arms was smoother, while on the side of the Soviet army, with casualties, their veterans were wearing out, the combat quality of the recruits was getting lower and lower, and the senior officers changed frequently. The morale of the army was also affected, so Yang Chao also agreed with their plan to drag the war until winter.
So Yang Chao stayed in China and stayed in Shanghai to deal with some things, after all, he was the Minister of Emergency Crisis, and it was too bad for him to be abroad for a long time.
After more than a year of operation, unemployment is no longer a big problem, and the really unemployed urban workers have either been absorbed by the National Reconstruction and Development Office or have found new jobs in enterprises that are slowly resuming production.
The economy is recovering, albeit slowly. But this is a very good sign.
The reason for this achievement is not unrelated to the country's already increased deficit of 30 billion dollars, and the total deficit in Roosevelt's New Deal was only 35 billion dollars, and then Americans began to worry about inflation. Turning into a state of austerity.
Roosevelt also announced a 59% depreciation of the dollar without restraint, announcing that the price of the dollar was $35 for one ounce of gold, and the gold content of one dollar was only 0.7 grams, while one tael was now two gold dollars, equal to two grams of gold, and the nominal price of one Chinese tael was equivalent to $2.459. But this is only the nominal price of the dollar, because the United States has banned the export of gold, in fact, the real price of the dollar is even lower, and the price of the dollar to the Chinese tael in the European market has even reached the price of 3 dollars to 1 tael.
Therefore, Mi Qing's 30 billion taels are almost 100 billion US dollars.
These 30 billion taels are mainly used to maintain the wages of 50 million state employees, one tael per day, 50 million taels a day, more than 10 billion taels a year, and in addition to purchasing various equipment, it is obvious that the government's deficit in the end will never be just that.
But don't worry about the government's credit, Yang Chao's 20,000 tons of gold, but a real 10 billion taels of hard currency, with these hard currencies as interest collateral, the government borrowed 100 billion taels of treasury bonds, it is still easy. The central bank used the British goods as a reserve to issue 1,000 taels of notes to buy government bonds, and there was no problem.
But what Yang Chao needs to worry about is inflation, no matter how he deals with it, in the end, tens of billions of taels of banknotes have actually flowed from the government to the hands of workers and enterprises, and it is no wonder that such a huge amount of banknotes have poured into the economy without causing inflation.
In fact, moderate inflation has already begun, and the minimum wage determined by law has easily raised the wages of employees, and if they are swallowed up by inflation in the end, it will be a pity, because after the wage increases, the cost of the whole country will be greatly increased, and the competitiveness will be greatly reduced, at the cost of declining economic competitiveness, if there is no real increase in per capita income, it is really too sad.
Therefore, stopping inflation is already an urgent problem for Yang Chao to solve, and while inflation has not yet exploded, this trend will be nipped in the bud.
Hold a meeting with friends in the banking industry.
Zhang Jiaao asked the central bank to sell bonds, collect cash from the market, and at the same time increase the discount rate, whether it is to sell bonds or increase discounts, the ultimate purpose of using these financial instruments is to raise market interest rates, so that money can be collected into the banks, rather than continue to enter the economic cycle.
Yang Chao disagreed, investing money is a pair of good brothers with inflation, and if there is more money, it will naturally be worthless. Artificially tightening circulation to curb inflation is a common principle of the times, and it is a good solution, but it will have the evil effect of suppressing private investment.
At present, the state is running a large deficit in order to stimulate the economy, and if it suppresses private investment, it will mean that the government is constantly replacing the role of private investment. This is the method adopted by the Americans, they not only use government power to vigorously promote the fiscal deficit, carry out the construction of large-scale public works, and at the same time raise interest rates to tighten circulation, but also adopt the method of high taxation, Roosevelt era, the United States tax revenue as high as more than 50%, although effectively curbing hyperinflation and high unemployment, but seriously restricting private investment in the United States, knowing that Roosevelt was the year when the United States private investment increased for the first time.
Therefore, it is impossible for Yang Chao not to learn this lesson, his current approach is to promote the government deficit at the same time, but not to raise taxes like the United States, he hopes that the government deficit will flow out of the currency, can flow into the hands of investors, instead of turning around and being collected by the government with high taxes.
Promoting private investment is the last way to end the economic crisis.
But neither the deficit can be tightened, nor the interest rate can be raised, and the inflationary pressure is indeed very strong.
Yang Chao thought for a while and said: "At present, inflation mainly occurs in consumer goods, and the people have money in their hands, so they naturally want to consume, and consumption is not a bad thing, but the minimum wage system that raised the daily wage by one tael before has also affected the countryside, and now the rural employees must also implement the daily wage of one tael, so the price of pork, beef and mutton, green onions, ginger, garlic and other food will inevitably rise." ”
On the one hand, the price of agricultural non-staple food is because the production cost of the peasants is high, and of course the price must be raised, and on the other hand, the wages of the people in the cities have risen, which is acceptable. But the fundamental reason is that the people suddenly have more money in their hands, and the people who have just experienced the crisis at the beginning do not dare to spend money, but after a year has passed, they have saved some money in their hands, and it is inevitable to consume, under the regulations of one tael per day, even ordinary employees have a salary of 360 taels a year, and it is not a problem for people who are thrifty to save two hundred taels a year.
So the mentality is stable, and I dare to consume, the money in hand is spent at once, and a large amount of money is used for consumption, it seems that there is too much money, and if there is more money, the money is not worth much, so I dare to consume things that cannot be consumed in the past, I can't afford to eat so much meat in the past, but now I obviously eat more meat.
The consumption of the common people will only get stronger and stronger, but the production cost of meat is higher than in the past, and secondly, due to the economic crisis, the previous production has shrunk significantly, consumption has expanded, the cost has risen, and the output has also declined.
"You have to press consumption."
Yang Chao carefully analyzed everyone's reports and analyzed.
Although more consumption means that the people's living standards are high, but now is not the time, now the supply problem has not been solved, if they consume on a large scale, after creating inflation, their money will become more and more worthless, press it, let the output of agricultural products slowly recover, and when the time is in consumption, that is the real improvement.
Production is less, consumption is more, so pressure consumption, promote production, shrink the funds for consumption, and increase the input of production, this is the correct direction of adjustment.
To accomplish such adjustments, administration will not work.
Yang Chao said with a smile: "It depends on all colleagues in the banking industry. ”
Everyone looked at Yang Chao, and during this time, life in the banking industry began to get better.
The main thing is that the big banks are having a better time, nothing else, just the government has launched tens of billions of bonds to underwrite, which is a good business with huge profits.
Yang Chao said to everyone: "So now, instead of raising interest rates, we should lower them. ”
This is exactly the trick used by governments in the 21st century, to maintain low or even zero interest rates during economic crises, and some countries to have negative interest rates, in the hope of boosting production, growth, and especially employment.
But apparently the bankers of this era did not understand it.
Zhang Jiaao frowned and said: "If you don't raise interest rates, how can you suppress inflation?" (To be continued.) )