The real "butterfly effect" in history - the Sarajevo incident and its impact on China

The butterfly effect was proposed by meteorologist Lorenz in 1963. Pen × fun × Pavilion www. ｂｉｑｕｇｅ。 ｉｎｆｏ

It is to the effect that a butterfly in the rainforest of the Amazon basin in South America, with a few occasional flaps of its wings, could cause a tornado in Texas, USA, two weeks later. The reason for this is that the movement of the butterfly's wings causes changes in the air system around it, and causes the generation of weak air currents, which in turn cause corresponding changes in the air or other systems around it, which causes chain reactions, and eventually leads to great changes in other systems.

This effect shows that the result of the development of things is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions, and the slightest deviation from the initial conditions will cause great differences in the results.

The "butterfly effect" is used in sociology to illustrate that a bad and small mechanism, if not guided and adjusted in time, will bring great harm to society, and is jokingly called a "tornado" or "storm"; A good tiny mechanism, with the right guidance, after a period of effort, will produce a sensational effect, or "revolution".

In June 1914, Austria-Hungary troops conducted military exercises in Bosnia, near the Serbian border (then under Austro-Hungarian rule), aimed at Serbia (then an independent sovereign state, and probably still is), with the participation of Austrian Crown Prince Franz Ferdinand. He was an extreme militarist, who was sent to the army to be trained from an early age and had a great influence in the Austro-Hungarian Army. He advocated the annexation of Serbia by force, the expansion of the territory of Austria-Hungary, and the strengthening of Austro-Hungarian rule. The military exercises were held not only to show Serbia but also to demonstrate to Bosnia the ruling power of Austria-Hungary. The rampant provocations of Austria-Hungary provoked great anger among Serbian nationalists, who, in order to counter the arrogance of Austria-Hungary and retaliate against Ferdinand's provocations, decided to assassinate Ferdinand, which was carefully planned and carried out by a secret Serbian nationalist organization called the "Mafia". A humble civil society organization brought disaster to the whole of Europe and changed the world forever.

In May 1914, with the strong support of Germany, Austria-Hungary decided to hold large-scale military exercises in Sarajevo, Bosnia, near the Serbian border. The date was chosen on June 28, the anniversary of the conquest of Serbia by the Turks (June 28, 1386). With Serbia as an imaginary enemy, two corps were dispatched, and the heirs to the Austro-Hungarian throne, Ferdinand and his wife, decided to personally visit Sarajevo.

This provocative action of Austria-Hungary greatly angered the Serbian patriots, and the "mafia" and the local Bosnian secret nationalist group "Young Bosnia" drew up a plan to assassinate Ferdinand.

The Serbian Government had been aware of the assassination of Ferdinand and opposed it, fearing that it might lead to dire consequences, as Serbia would find it difficult to withstand the Austro-Hungarian military offensive. The Government of Serbia, through its Minister to Austria-Hungary, alerted the Austro-Hungarian Government to the danger of Ferdinand's life if he went to Bosnia. But the Austro-Hungarian government ignored this warning.

In the early morning of 28 June, the Young Bosnian Order placed seven Assassins on the street where the Austrian Crown Prince was passing. At around 10 a.m., after reviewing military exercises on the outskirts of the city, the Ferdinands proudly entered Sarajevo in an open-top car. A long line of royal cars slowly drove through the crowded streets, with only a sparse line of gendarmes and police on both sides of the road. Ferdinand sat in the second car and Sofia sat to his right.

As the convoy drove past the city center into Appel Pier, the first assassin who was ambushed here failed to make a move because a policeman came up and stood in front of him. Another assassin, Chabrinovich, not far away, suddenly burst out of the crowd and threw a bomb at the car in which the Ferdinands were travelling, but the bomb was bounced to the ground by the canopy and exploded in front of the third car, injuring General Poteacus's deputy and Sofia's maid with fragments. Ferdinand pretended to be calm and got out of the car, inspected the scene, glanced at Chabrinovic, who was caught by the guards, then boarded the car and waved his hand: "Gentlemen, this man is crazy, let's go as planned." The convoy quickly drove into the town hall, where the Ferdinands attended the welcoming ceremony and then took a short break to the hospital to see their injured entourage.

It was supposed to go to the hospital, but the driver deflected in the wrong direction and happened to bump into Princip, who was waiting at the corner of the street. The opportunity for assassination came. Principo drew his pistol and was about to raise his gun to shoot when a policeman not far from him spotted him and rushed up to grab him by the arm. At that moment, a member of the "Young Bosnia" named Mikhailo Psara, who had just arrived, waved his hand like a bolt of lightning and punched the policeman in the neck. At this time, Principo's gunfire rang out, and the Austrian crown prince and his wife were shot and killed. There was chaos all around, and Mihailo took the opportunity to flee the scene, while Principo was arrested on the spot (and later died in prison).

Franz Ferdinand's assassination in Sarajevo was exploited by the two major military blocs that were driving the war. The day after the incident, the Austro-Hungarian Chief of the General Staff Hertzendorf and Foreign Minister Berchdold both believed that the time had come for a "solution to the Serbian question" and demanded an immediate military mobilization and a declaration of war on Serbia. But they were also worried about Russian intervention, so they asked the German Emperor Wilhelm for help.

On the afternoon of Sunday, June 28, the Kaiser learned of the assassination of Franz Ferdinand on his yacht off the coast of Kiel and immediately ceased his browsing activities. He lived like a gambler who had placed a bet, and kept shouting, "Now is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity!" The Germans had a premonition that Russia's military might be growing stronger after the Russo-Japanese War, and that the now seemingly powerful Austro-Hungarian Empire would be in decline, so Germany made the decision to go to war.

While Germany and Austria were preparing for war, Russia and France were also actively preparing for war. On July 20, French President Poincaré and Prime Minister Viviani visited Russia. The two countries assured each other that in the event of war against Germany, they would fulfill their obligations as allies. Russia had made three concessions and retreats in the international crises of 1909, 1912 and 1913, and now he decided not to make concessions this time.

Knowing that Russia was preparing to send troops to the aid of the Allied Serbia, the German Emperor Wilhelm II sent a telegram to his cousin, Tsar Nicholas II, asking him to postpone the dispatch of troops in case of a large-scale war in Europe. The hesitant Tsar was warned by his ministers: the Russian army was ready to attack, and the withdrawal of troops was like a "huge machine" forcibly blocking full speed, and its losses were incalculable. As a result, 1.5 million Russian officers and soldiers prepared to advance westward. In the end, the news of Russia's troops decided the fate of Europe.

The British side was also ready for war, and believed that it was better to fight late than early, and that it would be detrimental to itself if it continued to delay. Because Britain saw that Germany's production capacity was stronger than its own, it would soon catch up in the naval shipbuilding race, hoping to defeat its dangerous rivals by war while still maintaining its naval superiority. However, after the Sarajevo incident, Britain did not show any intention of entering the war at first, because it was afraid of Germany pulling back from the precipice and taking responsibility for starting the war in the first place. Within Britain, 12 cabinet members disapproved of going to war, and a mass rally in Trafalgar Square demanded that Britain declare neutrality. Under pressure from the vigorous peace movement, British Foreign Secretary Gray told the German ambassador to Britain that Britain had no alliance with Russia and France and was not bound by any obligations, and repeatedly affirmed that Britain's attitude was to "do everything possible to prevent war between the great powers."

Austria-Hungary, with the support of Germany, chose the day on which French President Poincarre left Russia on July 23 to return home, and issued an ultimatum to Serbia, giving a 48-hour deadline to reply. In the ultimatum, Austria-Hungary deliberately provoked, using insulting language. However, in order to avoid war, Serbia tried its best to refrain from forbearance, and accepted everything except that it did not agree to the Austro-Hungarian interference in Serbia's internal affairs. However, Austria-Hungary, in desperation, declared war on Serbia on 28 July, as planned.

After the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum, Russia informed Austria that an attack on Serbia would cause a large Russian army to advance westward, and that Russia would not allow Austria to defeat Serbia and become the hegemon of the Balkans.

On July 26, British Foreign Secretary Gray proposed that Germany, Britain, France, and Italy mediate the discord between Austria and Serbia. However, Britain secretly encouraged France and Russia to fight against Germany and Austria, and promised to support them, which emboldened France and Russia. The true face of Britain was revealed only the day after Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, and imperialism could not have refused war.

On July 28, Austria-Hungary sent troops to Serbia to avenge Archduke Ferdinand and his wife, opening the First World War. Behind Austria-Hungary was Germany, and behind Serbia was Russia. Russia also has two former enemies, now friends, the United Kingdom of Great Britain (UK) and the French Republic.

On July 29, then British Prime Minister Gray met with the German ambassador and made it clear: "If the conflict is limited to Russia and Austria, Britain can remain neutral; If Germany and France were involved, the situation would immediately change, and the British government, under certain conditions, would be forced to make an urgent decision. In this case, you can't just sit on the wall. When Kaiser Wilhelm II finally learned of the true intentions of Britain to enter the war, he intended to pull back from the precipice and persuade Austria-Hungary to accept British mediation. However, Austria-Hungary had declared war on Serbia for two days, and the army had already marched into Serbian territory. Things have come to this point, and it is impossible to undo it.

On 30 July, Russia sent troops to Serbia's aid. On 1 August, Germany declared war on Russia and warned France to remain neutral and not to choose sides. France immediately refused, and Germany immediately declared war on France and quickly invaded neutral Belgium. Belgium was a security bulwark for Britain, and the German invasion harmed British interests, and Britain had to get involved in the war, declaring war on Germany and Austria-Hungary.

The Austro-Serbian war broke out quickly, and Russia and France sided with Serbia and immediately carried out a general mobilization for war. On 31 July, Germany presented an ultimatum to Russia and France to stop their general mobilization, which was flatly refused. On 31 July, Germany declared war on Russia. The German emperor ordered 500,000 German soldiers to march east to meet the enemy and fight against the Russian army.

On 2 August, in order to implement the "Schlieffen" plan, the German General Staff sent an ultimatum to Belgium, demanding that the German army be allowed to fight against the French army through Belgium and that it should be given a reply within 24 hours. Belgium, with a population of 7 million, courageously rejected Germany's unreasonable demands and appealed to Britain for help. At the same time, Germany was warned that any violation of its borders would be resisted.

On August 3, Germany declared war on France, and 1.5 million troops marched to the French border, embarking on the road of no return.

On August 4, Germany flagrantly violated the 1839 treaty "guaranteeing the permanent neutrality of Belgium", and the German army invaded Belgium. When Britain learned of the German invasion of Belgium, it issued an ultimatum to Germany on 4 August, demanding that Germany unconditionally respect Belgian neutrality. But German Chancellor Batemann told the British ambassador to Germany: "International treaties are nothing but a piece of waste paper. As a result, Belgian soldiers and innocent civilians were brutally killed, and Germany's crimes caused outrage in the world.

On 5 August, Britain declared war on Germany on the grounds that Germany had undermined Belgian neutrality.

In this way, in just one week, the two major military blocs in Europe appeared one after another amid the clamor of war, and almost all the major powers in the world were involved in this bloody war that lasted for four years.

This assassination immediately ignited the fuse of the First World War. At first, no one could have imagined that the assassination would kill countless adult men soon after. However, due to alliances between empires, competing interests in the colonies, and mutual suspicion, disaster finally happened.

This was not only a disaster on the European continent, but those few bullets also caused decades-long suffering in an ancient country in the east of the Eurasian continent -- a decades-long bloody war between a thousand-year-old country and an emerging island country, the "Sino-Japanese War," the Far East's version of the "Thirty Years' War," or the "Hundred Years' War."

At first, this scuffle had nothing to do with the East, but since the First Sino-Japanese War, Japan has defeated China and Russia one after another, and considers itself to be among the world's great powers, and is particularly keen on international affairs. A military alliance between Britain and Japan in 902 to counter Russian expansion in the Far East. At the beginning of the 20th century, in order to strengthen its position in the Far East, Britain tried to contain Russia's expansion in the Far East under the guise of Japan. And Japan, in order to occupy Korea and Northeast China, was anxious to seek an anti-Russian ally. On 30 January 1902, the British Foreign Secretary, the Marquess of Lansdownne (5th), H.C.K. Petty-Fitzmaurice, and the Japanese Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Hayashi Toshi, signed the Treaty of Alliance between Britain and Japan.

In view of the alliance between Japan and Britain, Britain sent a note to Japan after entering the war: If the war spreads to the Far East, please help Britain protect Weihai and Hong Kong. Japan was quick to say that it would take the necessary measures.

Let's look at the landlord Fat Sheep Country, China.

At that time, Britain and Germany had huge interests in the Far East, and Britain not only occupied Hong Kong, but also leased Weihaiwei; Germany leased Jiaozhou Bay, later known as Qingdao, and its economic influence spread throughout Shandong and North China. The Anglo-German war is likely to start in China, so how should China respond then?

The Beiyang government at that time thought like this:

China has diplomatic relations with the warring countries, neither good nor bad, there are neither hostile countries nor iron buddy allies, they are all wolves anyway, and they are all masters that cannot be provoked. The best option for China is to clean yourself and stay out of the way. On August 3, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Beiyang government issued a circular emphasizing that warring countries should not engage in warring relations in China's territorial waters and leased territories. Immediately afterwards, the "rules of external neutrality" were announced, and "it is earnestly hoped that the United States and Japan, which have not yet joined the war group, will come forward to advise the belligerent countries not to lead the war to the Far East."

However, the huge interests are there, and if China wants to stay out of it, it is definitely not something that can be done with an empty statement. Peace requires strength, and it needs hard power, that is, a strong enough force as a guarantee.

Historically, the United States has not made any similar statements, but the flames of the two world wars have hardly reached the Americas (with the exception of some German submarine captains who do not know what to do). The strength of the United States of America kept the continent under her protection from war, and no one wanted to provoke a giant. At that time, the United States did not need China's help, and China always needed the United States. At that time, the United States of America, out of self-interest, declared: "The United States supports China's peace statement and agrees with the neutrality of the concession and leased land." ”

Compared with the pacifist statements of the United States, the belligerent Japanese wolf does not buy the account of Chinese sheep, and the wolf never buys the account of fat sheep. Japan rejected China's peace proposal to limit the area of belligerent and accepted the British invitation to send warships to cruise the waters near Qingdao to enforce a port blockade, and to formulate and propose a battle plan to cooperate with the British to annihilate German military forces in the Far East.

There are two paths in front of China, and the Beiyang government can either go to war or enter the war. However, when making such a decision, the interests of the country must be put first, and the interests of political parties and factions should not be mentioned in foreign affairs. There is a national policy and law to participate in the war, and if you do not participate in the war, you must implement the law of a neutral country.

However, what is surprising is that on 9 August, Vice Foreign Minister Cao Rulin went so far as to tell the Japanese envoy Yukichi Kohata: If the Japanese government can resolutely deal with and expel Sun Wen, the leader of the "rebellious party" who is in exile in Tokyo, then China can allow the Japanese army to land in Qingdao. This is not the first time, nor is it the last, nor is it the last. When the Japanese army later invaded Laizhou, Foreign Minister Lu Zongyu still took advantage of the Japanese people's eagerness to seek help from China and demanded that Japan expel the revolutionaries living in Japan. The central government of a large country is actually exchanging national sovereignty for the persecution of a small country against its political opponents. Later, the Chiang government was still led by the nose by the Japanese.

Japan is going to war. In addition to fulfilling the responsibilities of the Anglo-Japanese alliance, the main purpose of Japan's participation in the war was to expand its rights and interests in China. Japanese politicians clearly see that the chaos in the West will not end anytime soon, and that this is the perfect time for Japan's expansion in Asia. On 15 August, Japan issued an ultimatum to Germany, demanding that all German warships in the waters of China and Japan be withdrawn or disarmed, and that Germany hand over Qingdao unconditionally to Japan by 15 September "for the future return to China."

When Japan submitted an ultimatum, it also submitted a copy to its envoy to Japan, and Foreign Minister Takaaki Kato told the Chinese envoy that Japan had no ambition to occupy Chinese land, and that China had no reason to enter the war. If China's own civil strife is unable to calm down, Japan will work with Britain to help China quell the turmoil and maintain peace in the Far East. Japan's rhetoric is extremely tempting, which is one of the reasons why China has repeatedly made wrong choices.

Germany was in contact with China after receiving an ultimatum from Japan. In the past decade or so, Germany has made huge investments in Qingdao and Shandong, but the benefits of these investments have not yet been fully realized. The war could not be fought forever, and Germany wanted to return its rights and interests in Shandong to China. As for the specific terms, Germany hoped to negotiate after the war. The sovereignty of Qingdao and Shandong belongs to China, and China only leased Qingdao to Germany for 99 years and transferred Shandong's priority development rights to Germany.

If China had boldly accepted Germany's request at this time, and only terminated the Lend-Lease contract early, even if there was some unpleasantness with Britain and Japan, it was generally understandable. The recovery of sovereignty would also save the people of the Territory from the scourge of war, which was the best policy. However, in view of the temptation of Britain and Japan, especially Japan, the Chinese government rejected the German side's request to achieve a win-win situation for both countries.

The reason why the Chinese side said no to Germany was simple: Britain and Japan were against it. This is an overt statement, and the reasons for the implicit inconvenience are: 1. Japan has promised to return Qingdao to China; 2. Japan will accept China's request to expel Sun Wen's "chaotic party" and even help China calm down internal turmoil. This second point is tempting to the government.

At that time, there were wise people in the Beiyang government who thought that Japan might not be able to return Shandong's rights and interests to China so smoothly, and they sent people to negotiate with the United States, hoping that the United States would take over Shandong's rights and interests from Germany, and then the United States would return them to China.

The United States is not in a hurry to choose sides, and its founding principle is free trade. As long as it does not undermine trade freedom, the United States is not willing to do much about world affairs, so the United States does not want to offend Japan and refuses to consider China's request, but only persuades Japan to ensure China's territorial integrity, open door, and equal opportunities, keep its promise, and seek an opportunity to return Qingdao to China as soon as possible. A bunch of non-lethal nonsense, but beautiful enough to meet the demands of China.

In response to the US demand, Japan once again made a solemn promise: Japan has no territorial ambitions against China, and as long as Germany unconditionally surrenders Qingdao, Japan will certainly seek an opportunity to return it to China. And the wolf said unto the sheep, I will give it to you after I have eaten thy piece of meat.

If Japan really fulfills its commitments, Sino-Japanese relations will certainly take a big step forward on the basis of the peaceful development of the past 20 years, and China will certainly thank Japan for its responsibility and generosity: it is enough to be a friend to Britain and enough to be kind to China. But after all, Japan is a short-sighted country, a villain who puts interests first. In addition, China at that time did not have the strength and insufficient ability to defend its own interests, which was the most fundamental reason.

Justice needs the endorsement of strength, and weak countries have no diplomacy!!

Soon after, Beiyang China, which lacked strength, could only repeat the absurd and embarrassing international diplomacy story of the "external neutrality" of the big and light countries in the Russo-Japanese War ten years ago.

Japan, which had grown into the largest power in Asia, did not hesitate to fight for the sake of its ally, the British Empire, and this was a fulfillment of its promise. But Japan did not send troops to Europe to fight Germany side by side with the British army, which would be too costly, and there would be no fruit to eat. Japan chose a convenient path to help Britain in the Far East and destroy and seize German interests in China. This method did not take much effort, Great Britain attracted the main force of the German army in Europe, and Taro's side was completely going down the mountain to pick peaches.

It was precisely on the basis of this consideration that Japan could not accept Sino-German consultations and could not agree to Germany's surrender of Qingdao to China. The reason is very simple, Qingdao is handed over to China, how can Japan help its allies?

Japan insisted on using this method to help Britain, but China did not want this result, but the United States, which had good relations with China, did not want to offend Japan; Britain, which also had a good relationship with China at that time, also advised China not to do this, and the poor weak country could only be at the mercy of the powerful country.

British Minister Zhu Erdian advised Gu Weijun, counselor of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: "Accept such an arrangement, and don't go to earn those unrealistic false names." Since Japan has promised to return it, it does not have to take it back directly from Germany. Even if Germany now hands over Qingdao to China, which major country will recognize it, given the situation?"

At that time, Beiyang China had no hardcore allies, let alone enemies that had to go to war. China wanted to take the opportunity to turn the other cheek with Germany and join Japan in attacking German military facilities in Qingdao, but Japan did not agree. In the face of world events, China, which is a big country, was actually excluded from the incident, except that Qingdao is China, and there seems to be nothing to do with China.

On 23 August, the deadline for an ultimatum arrived, and Germany did not reply in accordance with Japanese instructions. Japan immediately declared war on Germany in accordance with the ultimatum and attacked Qingdao together with the British army.

In the past ten years, Germany has built many forts in Qingdao. These batteries were basically facing the sea to prevent enemy attacks from the sea. The Krupp cannon is extraordinary, and from the sea, Qingdao seems to be impregnable.

The attackers, the Japanese were too familiar with the topography of Shandong, and during the First Sino-Japanese War, they fought in Shandong and conquered the last Beiyang navy in Weihai. Instead of attacking from the sea, as Germany had envisaged, Japan went around to Zhifu, landed at Longkou, and advanced by land to Tsingtao by land. China should rise up to fight against Japan's approach, and should take the opportunity to directly intervene in a war that Japan does not want to intervene in, and it is a war against Japan, because Japan is an undeclared war this time, which is an infringement of China's sovereignty. Japan did not report to China through diplomatic channels. According to Gu Weijun's recollection, President Yuan Shikai learned of the Japanese army's actions and reported to the governor of Shandong. Japan has clearly violated public international law, which gives China an excellent reason to fight.

However, Yuan Shikai was not prepared to do so. At an emergency meeting convened by the presidential palace, Gu Weijun was named by Yuan Shikai to speak first, and Gu Weijun believed that the Japanese landing at Longkou had blatantly violated public international law, because China had declared its neutrality in the European war. According to public international law, then, both belligerents should respect China's neutrality. Therefore, in order to show that China is indeed fulfilling its responsibilities as a neutral state, China has an obligation to defend its territory in order to maintain its neutral position. Gu Weijun clearly advocated that China should use force to resist Japanese aggression.

Wu Chaoshu, senior political counselor who attended the meeting, said in his speech that Gu Weijun's view was correct, and that China must fulfill its neutrality obligations in order to protect the rights of neutral countries in accordance with international law. If China does not defend its neutrality, silence would be tantamount to acquiescence to Japan's actions, if not acknowledgement.

Yuan Shikai turned to Duan Qirui, the army chief, who wanted to know from the army chief what actions the Chinese army could take. Duan Qirui said that if the president gave the order, the troops could resist and try to prevent the Japanese army from penetrating deep into the interior of Shandong. However, due to the lack of weapons and ammunition, the operation will be very difficult. Yuan Shikai bluntly asked Duan Qirui how long his resistance could last. Duan Qirui said forty-eight hours. Yuan Shikai asked again: What will I do after 48 hours? Duan Qirui looked at the president and said that he would listen to the president's instructions.

The army's "lack of strength" may be one of the reasons why Yuan Shikai gave up armed resistance. Yuan Shikai asked Foreign Minister Sun Baoqi again, and Sun Baoqi was at a loss, but it was certain that there was no good way to do it diplomatically. Yuan Shikai looked around, expecting the ministers of various ministries to say something to boost his spirit, but everyone was silent, waiting for the president's instructions.

Yuan Shikai sighed deeply and said that he understood very well what jurists thought China should do under international law, but we were unprepared, how could we fulfill our responsibilities as a neutral country? He believes that international law is formulated by man, so why can't China formulate its own international law according to its own actual conditions? Yuan Shikai took out a small note prepared in advance as the basis for his speech, and he reminded his colleagues that in the Russo-Japanese War that occurred in Northeast China ten years ago, China had no power to stop the Japanese army's movements, so it had to draw a "war zone". Well, now it is also possible to draw a corridor through which the Japanese army can attack Qingdao, China does not interfere with Japan's passage in this zone, and China remains neutral outside this zone.

On 3 September, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a note to the envoys of various countries regarding Laizhou, Longkou, Shandong Province and various places near Qingdao as the marching areas of the belligerents. China repeats the story of a decade ago, watching as two "friendly countries" fight each other on Chinese soil. The humiliating scenes of the Russo-Japanese War were staged again, and the location was changed to the Shandong Peninsula. Ten years ago, "external neutrality" took a heavy price on China, and its people were ravaged and sacrificed enormously. China's only gain was to expel the Russians who were lying there with the help of Japan, and replace them with the Japanese who "coexist and prosper." Will history repeat itself? The answer is yes.

Yuan Shikai, a former Qing official with extensive experience as an outsider in the Russo-Japanese War, carved out a corridor for the warring nations to pass through. On the face of it, this is equal to all nations, and it is available to all, and I, the host, have done my best to the two of you guests who are fighting in my house. In fact, this move greatly favored the Japanese side and facilitated the Japanese army's attack on the German defenders. As soon as this policy was announced, it immediately aroused a strong protest from the German minister.

The Battle of Qingdao began on October 31 and ended on November 7, 1914. Japan won the battle and occupied Qingdao. This was the first time that Japan had confronted Germany head-on during World War I, and it was also the first time that the British coalition had entered the war.

On September 2, 1914, the Japanese army had mobilized 45,000 troops with the 18th Division as the main force, equipped with hundreds of heavy siege artillery, mountain artillery, field artillery, and a number of aircraft, and forcibly landed at Longkou, Shandong. The Japanese army first occupied Huangxian, Yexian, Pingdu, Jimo and the towns along the Jiaoji Railway within 15 days, and finally forced the troops to advance to Qingdao in Li Village. At that time, the Japanese Navy had dispatched more than 60 warships to blockade Jiaozhou Bay and attack the German troops stationed in Qingdao from the sea, but because the Germans had laid a large number of mines in Jiaozhou Bay, landing on the east side of Qingdao almost became the only option for the Japanese army. A few days later, another British force of about 2,000 men, including Indian soldiers, also landed at Yangkou Bay.

On September 26, 1914, the Japanese and British forces began to attack the periphery of Qingdao, and gradually occupied the German outlying positions in Gushan, Loushan, Luoquanjian and other places.

On the second day after the Japanese troops landed at Yangkou Bay, the Germans sent 58 officers and men to the Fushan Heights to set up observation posts, and set up five fortifications, stockpiling 60,000 rounds of ammunition, 300 grenades, 2,000 flares, and enough food and water to last for eight days, preparing to deal with the Japanese army for a period of time. In order for the Japanese army to destroy the German batteries on various hills in the urban area of Qingdao, it was necessary to install large-caliber heavy artillery in the deep zone, but the existence of German observation posts made the Japanese army have nothing to hide.

In the early morning of September 28, 1914, the Japanese army sent two squadrons of troops to launch a sneak attack on Fushan in the dark. Due to the high mountain and steep road, at 3:30 a.m., these Japanese troops were suddenly fired by German rifle fire, and because they could not distinguish the position of the other side, they had to send a small detachment of 15 people to detour back to the southeast foot of the German position to search, and the rest of the Japanese troops scattered and continued to advance towards the German position.

At 12:30 on October 2, about 30 German soldiers attacked from the front and flank of the Japanese positions in two directions. The Japanese officers who were inspecting halfway up the mountain hurriedly ordered the troops to retreat to the top of the mountain and hold on. A German machine gun squad carrying two heavy machine guns crossed the Haibo River from the direction of Taitung Town to the avenue about 50 meters northeast of the bridge, set up machine guns and fired fiercely at the top of the hill in all directions. The Germans who rushed up the hill were repulsed by the Japanese, who had fewer troops, and after retreating, they joined up with the Germans at the Haibo Bridge guard post.

German heavy machine guns fired until 1 p.m. At this time, the 12 German field guns located on the east side of Taitung Town also began to bombard the Japanese troops on the Sifang Mountain, but due to the long distance, the Japanese casualties were not large. After 10 minutes, the Germans ceased fire on all fronts, and three German soldiers carrying red cross flags and stretchers walked out of the Haibo River Bridge guard post and came to the foot of the Sifang Mountain to carry away the dead and wounded.

In the afternoon of the same day, the commander of the 48th Wing of the Japanese Army believed that the Germans might attack again that night, so he sent an infantry squad and a heavy machine gun squad to support the Japanese troops in Sifang Mountain. At about 8 o'clock in the evening, the German field artillery positions began to bombard the 54-meter-high ground of Sifang Mountain. At 9:15 a.m. on the 3rd, he turned around and fired at the surrounding area of the mountain. The Japanese found about 60 German troops at the front of the position, slowly approaching the Sifang Mountain, which was held by the Japanese army. It turned out that there were about 300 German troops behind the German vanguard, and the troops suddenly attacked the Sifang Mountain, 2 kilometers east of the coastal fortress, in three directions.

This day is the thirteenth day of the ninth month of the local lunar calendar, the full moon is not full, and the visibility is good. The Japanese army blocked the path leading to the village of Dongwujia in the saddle area about 200 meters southeast of the 58-meter-high ground of Sifang Mountain. When the Germans reached about 200 meters away from the Japanese position, the Japanese suddenly fired fiercely, and the Germans immediately dispersed and returned fire.

At 9:30, another German army attacked the left side of the Japanese position from the direction of Dongwujia Village, and quickly rushed to five or six meters in front of the Japanese position. The Germans then retreated after 10 minutes of strong attack. At this time, there was still fierce fighting on the front of the position.

The fierce battle lasted until 10:20 p.m., when Japanese reinforcements arrived, and the Germans began to retreat to the starting point in front of the mountain and return to Taitung Town by car.

That night, the Japanese strengthened their forces in Sifang Mountain and sent outposts to guard the direction of the coastal fortress to prevent another night attack by the Germans. After the incident, the representatives of the Japanese army and the German army jointly negotiated and buried the dead German officers and soldiers on the mountain northeast of Sifang Mountain.

After clearing the outer defensive line of the German army stationed in Qingdao, the Japanese army advanced to the city of Qingdao at that time. The last line of defense of the German army consisted of five fortresses, of which the central fortress was located on the present-day Zhenjiang North Road. The Germans knew very well that once the defense line of the five major fortresses was broken, the German army would have no danger to defend and would no longer be able to organize effective resistance, so they deployed heavy troops on the defense line of the five fortresses. As a result, the two sides entered a stalemate until the evening of November 6, 1914.

The Japanese forces attacking the central fortress of the German army were the 56th Infantry Wing of the Yamada Brigade (Kurume Unit), and the 3rd Brigade (led by Nakajima Shosa) led by Wing Commander Garten Daisa served as the main attack. On the evening of November 6, the visibility was good, and you could see the scenery dozens of meters away. At 5:30 p.m., a squad of engineers first came to the front of the outer trench and cut a large gap 6 meters wide in the barbed wire, and then braved the machine gun fire of the German army in the direction of the northern fortress of Xiaozhan Mountain to cut a hole in the barbed wire of the inner trench. At 6:30 p.m., the engineer squad used explosives to collapse the walls of the German outer trenches, while opening huge passages in both directions for the infantry commandos to charge. The accompanying scouts carefully observed the German fire deployment and the direction of the assault in front of the formation, and made a detailed report to the brigade headquarters after returning.

Based on the report, Kato concluded that it was possible for the Japanese to break through the German defenses here. Moreover, after repeated attacks in recent days, the German army's will to fight has become exhausted and depressed. In addition, the Germans were generally more alert at dawn. Therefore, at this time, all the forces of the German army should be deployed in field fortifications to wait for the enemy to surprise them. It was precisely because of the German army's passive and old-fashioned operational principle that the Japanese army created an excellent opportunity for a surprise attack.

At about 8 o'clock that night, the 3rd Brigade of the Japanese Army asked the artillery to stop bombarding the central fortress. At 9:30 p.m., a small detachment of infantry, assisted by an engineering detachment, was sent to the front of the central fortress to carry out a surprise attack. Japanese sappers, under the cover of heavy machine guns, destroyed the barbed wire fence of the outer trench by nearly 100 meters, and also expanded the two assault passages to a width of 10 meters. If he succeeds this time, he will be followed by a squadron of infantry. At 10:30 p.m., the 3rd Squadron of the 10th Squadron of the 3rd Brigade of the Japanese Army set out. At this time, the Germans also seemed to observe the intention of the Japanese to attack the central fortress, and from 10 o'clock in the evening, the German rear batteries opened artillery bombardment on the third attack position of the Japanese center group. At 11:30 a.m., the Japanese assault team advanced to the front of the central fortress amid German artillery bombardment.

At 0:50 a.m. on 7 November, the artillery of the brigade used grenadiers and mortars to shell the rear positions of the German central fortress and the north side of the north fortress of Xiaozhan Mountain, but the central fortress did not return fire. At 1 o'clock in the morning, the engineer detachment set up three ladders at the bottom of the trench, and the Japanese troops quietly and quickly entered the outer trench, quietly stepped forward in the night, dismantled the barbed wire fence on the high slope of the front of the fort, and climbed over the inner trench to the front of the shelter.

At this time, the German fortress was still so quiet. At 1:15 a.m., after the sappers dismantled the electronically controlled mines laid in front of the German central fortress, the Japanese squad, led by Second Lieutenant Nakamura, occupied the skirmish trenches in the front line of the German army, and came to a place about 50 meters away from the German shelter to conduct a close reconnaissance of the surrounding terrain of the shelter department. Suddenly, the Germans on duty at the fortifications spotted the Japanese attack, and 11 panicked Germans blocked the path to the shelter with heavy machine guns on the north side of the fort. Seeing this, the Japanese commandos immediately made a detour to the southern slope of the fort and used the tall shelter to block the German machine-gun bullets. The Germans were even more panicked and retreated in the direction of the eastern fortress of Taitung Town. At this time, the sappers hurriedly stepped forward and cut off all the telephone lines, mine lines, searchlight lines, etc.

At 1:20 a.m. on November 7, the Japanese commandos returned to the rear of the fortress in two ways, and when they came to less than 30 meters in front of the gate of the huge concealment department, they found that only a German surveillance sentry was on duty outside. Subsequently, the Japanese army surrounded the shelter. At this time, the Japanese soldiers had already come to the staircase outside the gate of the shelter and shouted to the German troops in the shelter to persuade them to surrender. After a moment of silence, the German commander decided to lay down his arms.

Soon, for the first time, the sun flag of the Japanese army was planted in the forward fortress of the German army.

After the fall of the central fortress, the Germans felt bad, so they concentrated all their artillery fire on the central fortress and organized an army counterattack in an attempt to recapture the fortress, but it was unsuccessful. The Japanese army took advantage of the situation to attack the forts from the front and rear, and successively captured Zhanshan, Taitung Town and other forts. The forts of the Ildis barracks were also lost one after another.

At 6 a.m. on 7 November, the Bismarck South Fort fell. At 6:30 a.m., Bismarck's North Fort was also lost. At this point, the last line of defense of the German army collapsed on all fronts. At 7 o'clock, the Germans hoisted a white flag at Guanxiang Mountain and surrendered. In this battle, the Germans lost 150 people, more than 4,000 were captured, and the Japanese killed more than 1,000 people. On the eve of the surrender, the Germans blew up the artillery of the battery themselves, and the warships and floating docks sank into the sea.

At 4 o'clock in the afternoon of November 7, 1914, the German army in Qingdao officially surrendered to the Japanese army, the total strength of the German army in Qingdao was 10,735 people, and the Japanese mobilized more than 50,000 troops, including 1,682 British troops. In addition to attacking from the sea, the Japanese army also landed at Longkou and Laoshan Bay, and attacked Qingdao in a roundabout way. After more than two months of fierce fighting on land and sea, the Germans finally surrendered. The Japanese entered the city at 10 a.m. on the 11th; On the 14th, the declaration of occupation of Qingdao was issued; On the 16th, a ceremony was held to enter the city; On the 27th, the Japanese emperor issued an order to set up a garrison headquarters in Qingdao and appointed Lieutenant General Kamio as commander of the Qingdao garrison.

Qingdao became a Japanese colony again, the Japanese replaced the Germans, and the hopes of the Chinese Beiyang government were once again completely disappointed. This result was even worse than Tsingtao remaining in the hands of the Germans. In the war between Japan and Germany, the Chinese suffered great losses. The Japanese army not only occupied Qingdao City, but also occupied Laizhou, Pingdu, Jimo, Jiaozhou, Weixian, Zhangdian, and Jinan, and seized the entire line of the Jiaoji Railway. The German troops stationed in Qingdao surrendered, and the Japanese marched forward in a mighty way, quickly taking over the entire German leased territory, including Qingdao, and the railway from Qingdao to Jinan.

The actions of the Japanese army caused a high degree of panic on the Chinese side and also created a difficult problem for the Chinese side. Now that the Chinese side has acquiesced in the Japanese attack on the Germans and ceded a passage, what else can be done to contain the Japanese movement in Shandong? Since the Sino-Japanese War, the Chinese side has been suspicious of Japan's expansion policy in Asia, and at this time, Japan is taking advantage of the European war to use troops in China on a large scale, and it cannot help but let the Chinese think about it. This is a clear attempt to occupy the whole of Shandong!!

On December 29, Vice Foreign Minister Cao Rulin held talks with the Japanese envoy Nippon Zhiyi, at which the Chinese side announced the cancellation of the neutral theater and asked the Minister to Japan Lu Zongyu to formally notify the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Japan is unwilling to accept the Chinese government's announcement and demands that the Chinese side should hold proper consultations with the Japanese side before canceling it. The British minister also put pressure on the Chinese side, advising the Chinese side to proceed with caution.

On January 7, 1915, China sent a note to Britain and Japan, announcing the cancellation of the special marching area in Shandong, restoring the status quo ante, and demanding that the Japanese troops in the neutral zone must be withdrawn as soon as possible. Japan did not accept the request after receiving it, and Japan believed that the Chinese side's announcement of the cancellation of the Shandong Special Advance Zone was inappropriate, and that the actions of the Japanese troops would not be affected and constrained by the Chinese side's announcement.

China's hunch about Japan was accurate, and Japan was indeed not simply helping Britain to drive out Germany. The Anglo-Japanese Pact was only one justification for the actions of the Japanese army, and Japan was determined to use this opportunity to achieve its Asian goals by taking advantage of the fact that the Great Powers were too busy with the war in Europe to look eastward.

As early as the third day after the Japanese captured Qingdao (November 10, 1914), the Japanese cabinet decided to deal with China, which was later called the "21 Articles". In order to ensure that the diplomats on the front line fully understood the government's intentions, the Japanese envoy to China was ordered to return to Japan during the military operation, and to give him a face-to-face lecture and repeatedly discuss the problems that might be encountered in the negotiations with the political elders. After thorough preparation and a decision by the emperor, Nichiki quietly returned to Beijing with this carefully prepared "outline of negotiations with China," or the "21 Articles," to find a suitable time to formally submit it to the Chinese government.

On the grounds that he had just returned from Tokyo, he asked the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to arrange a time to meet with President Yuan Shikai. After consultation, the date was set for January 18, 1915. At 3 o'clock in the afternoon, Yuan Shikai met with Rizhiyi. After the greetings, Rizhiyi handed the carefully prepared "Twenty-one Articles" to Yuan Shikai. Rizhiyi did not forget to add a sentence:

The Japanese Government expresses its sincerity to the President and is willing to settle the outstanding cases for many years in order to achieve the goal of goodwill. This is instructed by the government to submit the terms and conditions, and may the President accept them, and resolve them quickly and keep them secret. It is a blessing for both countries.

The "21 Articles" have since been understood as Japan's plan for "destroying China", and because Japan deliberately emphasizes that it should be carried out in a secret way, it has increased the Chinese's concerns about Japan's demands. The "Twenty-one Articles" are divided into five items, the first of which consists of four articles, which require China to recognize Japan's inheritance of all German rights and interests in Shandong, and to expand them. Germany's rights and interests in Shandong, which China had ceded to Germany since 1898, now that Japan had taken control of Shandong through the war, had de facto taken over Germany's rights. Japan demanded that China confirm that it had de facto recognized China's sovereignty over Shandong. This requirement is similar to what is called "confirmation of rights" in economics.

Paragraph 2 of the "21 Articles," consisting of seven articles, requires China to recognize Japan's rights to reside, operate industry and commerce, build roads, and open mines in South Manchuria and eastern Inner Mongolia, and extend the lease period of the Lushun, Dalian, South Manchurian, and Anbong railways to 99 years. This obviously surpassed Japan's military action against Germany in Shandong, and no matter what reason Japan used, it made the Chinese side feel awkward and felt that Japan had the intention of taking advantage of the danger of others.

The third item consists of two items, requiring the Chinese side to change the Hanyeping Company into a Sino-Japanese joint venture, and the nearby mines are not allowed to be mined by others without the consent of the company. This is a specific Sino-Japanese joint venture project, and whether it is agreed to or not has nothing to do with the overall situation.

Paragraph 4 requires China not to lease or cede coastal ports and islands to other countries.

In the eyes of the Chinese side, the most serious is the fifth item, which consists of seven articles, which requires the Chinese side to hire Japanese as political, financial, and military advisers, and that China's police and arsenals must be jointly run by China and Japan. Japan has the right to build railways between Nanchang and Wuhan, Hangzhou and Chaozhou. Japan had privileges in Fujian to open mines, build roads, build seaports, and shipyards. Fifth, China regards it as a serious violation of national sovereignty. As some diplomats have said, if China hires the Japanese as demanded, then where is China, and how is it different from the country?

At the beginning of its operation against Germany, Japan promised to hand over the Qingdao Seeker to China. If Japan fulfills its promise at this time, even if Japan does not put forward any conditions to China, China will certainly be grateful and try its best to let Japan share China's market and resources.

However, Japan was too inflated after the outbreak of the European war and was eager to take advantage of the opportunity to monopolize Asia. Japan's actions violated the interests of the Great Powers, but China initially ignored this and did not disclose Japan's demands to the Great Powers in a timely manner.

Rizhiyi told Yuan Shikai to keep it a secret in person, and made a verbal hint about the benefits of Yuan Shikai's acceptance of these demands. This hint hit Yuan Shikai's soft underbelly. Hichi first talked about the very close relations between the Chinese revolutionaries and many Japanese in the opposition, and that the Japanese government "cannot stop these people from making trouble in China unless the Chinese government can really come up with some kind of friendly proof." Nichi-yi also said that the majority of Japanese people do not have a good impression of President Yuan, and they believe that President Yuan is resolutely anti-Japanese, and that China prefers to be close to European and American countries and to be an enemy of neighboring Japan. "If the President accepts these conditions now, the Japanese people will believe that the President is friendly to Japan, and the Japanese government will be able to provide assistance to the President at that time."

Since the assassination of Song Jiaoren, Yuan Shikai has indeed been greatly troubled by the revolutionaries, with anomie and political chaos, and the central government level has almost fallen into anarchy, and it is difficult for Yuan Shikai's government and the parliament composed of elites from all walks of life to reach agreement on almost all major issues. China did not intervene quickly after the outbreak of World War I, did not join the warband, not because China did not want to, but because China could not, and political disputes postponed all major decisions indefinitely.

Rizhiyi's rhetoric aroused Yuan Shikai's thinking. During this conversation, Yuan Shikai sat silently. In Yuan Shikai's view, the "21st Article" was undoubtedly a major blow, and this blow stunned him. It is said that Yuan Shikai only said this sentence: "I can't give you any reply tonight." ”

After sending off Ri Zhiyi, Yuan Shikai immediately convened a meeting of the deputy secretary general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the secretary general of the presidential office to schedule the negotiation steps. In the days that followed, Chinese and Japanese diplomats held more than 20 rounds of negotiations. The international community, especially the United States, has also exerted some pressure on Japan, and the United States does not want Japan to take advantage of the European war to expand its influence in China indefinitely. As for the people in China, they were also mobilized by the government in this negotiation, and the voices of various localities against the "21 Articles" are growing louder and louder. This is the first time in modern times that the Chinese people have intervened in a diplomatic conflict.

In the face of the Chinese Government's intransigence, the rising nationalist sentiment of the people, and the pressure of the international community, Japan made some concessions on the one hand and gave up the "Fifth Demand," which was most unfavorable to China, and on the other hand, in disregard of Chinese nationalist sentiments, brazenly issued an ultimatum to the Chinese Government on May 7, 1915, limiting it to reply by 6 p.m. on May 9, failing which it would carry out the necessary means.

In conjunction with verbal threats, Japanese warships cruised around the Bohai Sea, Japanese troops in Shandong and other places began to increase their troops, and Japanese overseas Chinese withdrew one after another. It gives people the feeling that the Sino-Japanese war is about to break out.

Britain and the United States, which have relations with neither of the two countries, are highly concerned about the possible outbreak of a military conflict between China and Japan. U.S. Minister Reinsch urged China to avoid a head-on conflict with Japan as much as possible. British Minister Zhu Erdian also had this attitude, persuading Yuan Shikai's government to accept Japan's conditions, after all, No. 5 had been deleted. "At present, we can only endure humiliation for the time being, as long as we try to improve ourselves and immerse ourselves in hard work, in ten years, we will be able to compete with Japan." Otherwise, once a Sino-Japanese conflict breaks out, the European and American countries will now have no time to look eastward, and China will suffer the big losses.

The persuasion of Britain and the United States has profoundly influenced China's decision-making. On May 8, Yuan Shikai convened the ministers of various ministries, believing that Britain and the United States and other countries were powerless to help, and that China's own national strength was not sufficient, and it was difficult for them to meet each other, so they had to accept the requirements of parts 1 to 4 of the "21 Articles".

When the news broke, public opinion was in an uproar. In order to win back the hearts of the people, Yuan Shikai decisively set up a memorial arch, and the president ordered the day of accepting the "21st Article" as the "National Shame Memorial Day".

It is indeed humiliating for China to be forced to accept Japan's coercion. So what was the reason for China to be subject to Japan again after 20 years of the First Sino-Japanese War, after China turned around and even changed its national system? At that time, the most common view of people from all walks of life was that China was not strong enough, so China should take this as a warning, bury its head in hard work, strengthen itself, lie down and taste courage, and take revenge for ten years.

Not all Chinese think so, and at the most difficult time of Sino-Japanese negotiations, Yang Du, a young politician who had been following China's political development, put forward a completely new set of ideas in March 1915. In the "Theory of Saving the Country by the Monarchy and the Constitution" written at this time, he profoundly analyzed the historical background of the Sino-Japanese negotiations, and believed that the main reason for China's inability to confront Japan this time was not that China was inferior in strength, but that China had fallen into the misunderstanding of democracy and republican politics on the road of political development.

According to Yang Du's analysis, the fundamental purpose of the country is to build a strong country that is respected. Constitution-making is the basic means by which the country can achieve prosperity and strength. If the constitution is established, the country has a certain legal system, and neither the head of state nor the people of the country can act outside the law, and the legal system remains unchanged when there is a change in personnel; A virtuous man cannot transgress the law and be good, nor can a disobedient transgress the law and become evil. If the country has this certain legal system as the main body, then there will always be good governance in politics and no bad government, and the sick people will see less and less, and those who benefit the people will see more and more, and all the undertakings in the country will be naturally developed, and they will progress year by year.

In Yang Du's view, constitutionalism and the rule of law, rather than a republic, are the foundation of a country's strong system. If we want to achieve constitutionalism, the monarchy, not democracy, is the key. An incontestable position, an authoritarian with absolute power, can bring real progress to the country, not nominal and nominal progress.

Yang Du famously said: "A non-constitution is not enough to save the country, and a non-monarch is not enough to establish a constitution." The constitution has a certain legal system, and the monarch has a certain head of state, both of which are so-called fixed in one. The strategy of salvation and the foundation of prosperity and strength are all here. ”

After the completion of Yang Du's "Theory of Monarchy and Constitutional Salvation", it was not published publicly, but reported to Yuan Shikai through Shi Xia Shoutian in the presidential palace. If this article is published immediately, it will cause great controversy, then Yuan Shikai may hesitate. And because it is an "internal reference", Yuan Shikai praised it after reading it, thinking that Yang Du's plan was "insightful of the times". The fruit that grows on the land of the imperial system is born with the genes of this land, and everyone has the heart of the emperor, but what is not is because it is not in that position.

The national restructuring is undoubtedly a major event, Yuan Shikai appreciated Yang Du's statement, but did not listen to the wind and rain, and rashly adopted Yang Du's suggestion. On the one hand, Yuan Shikai allowed all sides to discuss freely, and on the other hand, he solemnly entrusted US and Japanese constitutional experts Goodnow and Nagao Ariga to conduct research.

As far as its theory is concerned, the political predicament since the founding of the Republic of China is of course closely related to the change of the national system, but since China has embarked on the road of republic, must it abolish the republic and rebuild the monarchy? Of course, it is not necessary to look at it from the perspective of future generations, but in the view of Yuan Shikai and others, there is no other way to overcome the crisis brought about by Japan.

Based on this idea, the pace of Yuan Shikai's imperial self-reliance was consciously or unconsciously promoted by all sides, but when it entered the implementation stage, Liang Qichao, Cai Yi and others ascended to the heights, and the Hongxian Dynasty collapsed before the founding of the country. Immediately after that, the "New Youth" appeared on the stage, the new culture began, and at the end of World War I, the diplomacy of the Paris Peace Conference failed, and Chinese politics turned again to follow the path of the Russians, which is the conclusion. At this point, the various systems can be regarded as in China.

Federalism, Confederation, Military Dictatorship, Feudal Monarchy, Constitutional Monarchy, Democracy, Republic, Parliamentary, Communal Party Patriarchate, Religious Centralization......

The "World Exposition" on the land of China, in addition to automobiles, arms, and systems.

After the Russo-German War, Japan replaced Germany as the colonial ruler of Qingdao. Eventually, the sovereignty of Qingdao and the Shandong issue became the trigger for the May Fourth Movement in 1919, and after struggle and diplomatic negotiations, China recovered Qingdao's sovereignty in 1922. However, the Japanese army was stationed in Shandong, and soon after, after the Jinan Incident in 1928, Chiang's military unification of the country came to an end.

After the Jinan massacre, Commander-in-Chief Chiang Guangtou decided to suspend the Northern Expedition, which marked Chiang's abandonment of Chiang's plan to personally lead his troops into Beijing, and also meant that Chiang decided to temporarily postpone control of the north and concentrate on consolidating his rule in the south. In fact, the events mentioned in this textbook had a great impact on the development of Chinese history in the future.

There is no doubt that the reunification of China is not good for Japan, nor good for other world powers, and China is in the best state of secession. Subsequently, the Central Plains War, the 918 Incident, and the Mao-Chiang Civil War...... Behind this is the figure of various powerful countries. In the end, the source of all divine dramas was born...... For 8 years, the gods abused the Japanese for eight years, but everyone knows that it is obvious that a large country has been abused by a small country for eight years. These eight years have shaped the current pattern of East Asia.

Going back to the place where the first gunshot rang out, the gunfire in Sarajevo, the one who shot and killed Crown Prince Ferdinand was a man named Gafigri? A Serbian youth from Principo, who was only 19 years old at the time, was still a secondary school student. Principo was not alert, and it was a series of fortuitous factors that made him the Serbian national hero who assassinated Ferdinand. An inconspicuous little man changed the course of history carefully planned by the big guys. Although Ferdinand's assassination was only the trigger for the First World War, and preparations for war may have been underway for a long time, it cannot but be said that this event produced the so-called "butterfly effect".

Sarajevo is separated from China by a thousand mountains and rivers, but this shot has had a profound impact on the course of Chinese history. The great changes in the direction of Chinese history have profoundly influenced later generations, and until now, the course of history is often full of accidental factors.