Raise your own respect, and then coerce the Qing court, wait for the right time, eat both families, and be the only one. This is the strategy adopted by Yuan Shikai with the help www.biquge.info of the situation.

But he still misjudged the situation and the strength of the revolutionary party. Unlike the Xinhai Revolution in history, the strength of the revolutionary army, the full mobilization of Chen Wenqiang, and the smooth development of the revolutionary situation did not enable Yuan Shikai to reach the level of fearlessness.

In fact, it was not only Yuan Shikai who underestimated the development of the revolutionary situation; Even the revolutionary party and Chen Wenqiang did not expect that the revolution would be launched so quickly and smoothly.

Of course, the idea of "vacating the position" is not false, but for the sake of the country's stability as soon as possible and not allowing the two biggest enemies, Japan and Russia, to take advantage of it. But there is a limit to everything, especially for the old Manchu bureaucrats like Yuan Shikai, there is no means of restraint, how can people be reassured.

Wouldn't such a revolution fall short when it overthrew a **** and rotten court, but gave way to another dictator?

It is also an indisputable fact that the rapid development of the revolutionary situation has also made the conditions for the revolutionary party to "wait for a vacant position" more stringent. Chen Wenqiang also agrees with this. After all, there is no immutable strategy and tactics, and it is more realistic to flexibly change them according to the actual situation.

Even so, the power given to the great president is significant. If Yuan Shikai is still not satisfied, it can only show that he has no sense of democracy in his bones at all, and the idea of keeping power in a cage will not succeed.

Chen Wenqiang changed in every way, laughing and scolding, in order to more truly explore Yuan Shikai's psychology in order to draw the most true judgment. The fruits of the revolution cannot be stolen, Yuan Shikai cannot be too lenient, peace talks are not surrender, principles are principles, and the blood of revolutionary aspirants cannot be auctioned off cheaply.

Meantime. Chen Wenqiang also found out the reality of Yuan Shikai, judged the financial embarrassment of the north, and judged that Yuan Shikai was strong and middle-class, and he was not prepared enough for war.

True, if all sorts of miscellaneous units and civilian armies are excluded, the current revolutionary army is numerically weaker than the enemy in the north. The Beiyang Army plus the Yi Army and other troops. Yuan Shikai had more than 100,000 horses in his hands. But it should also be noted that Yuan's army did not have an overwhelming numerical advantage.

Moreover, the historical difference in the equipment of the two armies is not obvious now, and the southern army still has some advantages in the number of light and heavy machine guns. Even in terms of artillery, the revolutionary army is rapidly making up for it, and in time, it is expected to overtake. Moreover, the navy was also subordinate to the Provisional Government and to the Yugoslav Army. So. Even if the southern army lost some battles, the Yangtze River was still an insurmountable moat for the northern army.

If we think about it more deeply and broadly, the provisional government's finances are also under pressure, but with the support of the two major banks, and the credit of paper money, it is much stronger than in the north; From the perspective of military industrial capacity and economic strength, the south should also be stronger than the north, and long-term support is assured.

So. Chen Wenqiang got most of the information and came to a relatively accurate judgment. Leaving angrily is not all posturing. According to his thoughts, there was no need for the south to take the initiative to provoke a war, as long as it was consumed, it would be enough to bring down the Yuan clan.

Judging from the performance of the Shandong Beiyang Army, the equipment and training are very good, but it lacks the faith and spirit of the revolutionary army. Without food, Yuan Shikai could not fully control it. To put it simply, the Beiyang Army is still the type of soldier who eats food, which is more than one level worse than the revolutionary army that fights for ideals. As for the Resolute Army and the Patrol Army, they were even worse than the Revolutionary Army.

Chen Wenqiang brushed his sleeves and left. Yuan Shikai was suspicious, he did not think that the peace talks would break down, but believed that Chen Wenqiang was lying and threatening. Because he also has his source of information, and he also has the cause of his self-confidence.

For the time being, the Provisional Government is a large gathering of revolutionaries, constitutionalists and non-partisans, and although the revolutionary party has the upper hand, it cannot do without the support of the constitutionalists. And Yuan Shikai was a new figure in the late Qing Dynasty after all, and his achievements in the political system were quite numerous. At that time, Yuan Shikai was also the main promoter of the constitutional movement. The consultative bureaus set up in the provinces have many pro-Yuan people. They are also inextricably linked with the Kangliang Restoration, who fled overseas, and together, their strength is still very strong.

Of course, the constitutionalists are strong in social influence and economic strength, and the military has always been their weakness. Therefore, they had to attach themselves to the revolutionary party or the Yuan clan in order to realize their ideals and ambitions.

As for the peace talks, the constitutionalists were more eager than the revolutionary parties and hoped to achieve national stability and reunification without fighting. Chen Wenqiang and the revolutionary party did not expect the same, but the reality is always cold and undesirable.

Although Yuan Shikai kept saying that he agreed with the commonality, he obviously thought that no matter whether he was an emperor or a president, in short, after he became the head of state, he would be on top of the throne, and accept the revolutionaries and constitutionalists, and even the original Qing bureaucracy within his new legal system. However, the gap between his new legal system and what the revolutionary party wants to establish and abide by is so great that it is difficult to integrate the old with the new.

Therefore, although Chen Wenqiang thought that it was more appropriate to set the capital in Beijing, and could take into account the northeast and Manchuria, but in order to restrain Yuan Shikai, he had to be dragged to Nanjing. Or disperse the Beiyang Army and move it to other places, at least in the Gyeonggi area, there must be a revolutionary army, and it will not be weaker than the Beiyang Army stationed here. As for the problems of the north, there is always a way to solve them.

The so-called Son of Heaven guarding the country is certainly reasonable, but it is not without drawbacks. Under the conditions of communication in ancient times, the capital of Beijing naturally had a faster response to the riots of ethnic minorities in the north. But now the telegraph is instantaneous, and where the decision-making level sits, the impact is not great. And in the context of modern warfare, the role of fortified cities has also been greatly reduced.

It's just that Beijing, as the capital of the Ming and Qing dynasties, is more psychologically identified with people. And Beijing, as a political center, has a very large influence on the north.

In view of Yuan Shikai's psychology, Chen Wenqiang decided to adopt three strategies: upper, middle and lower. The best policy is for the revolutionary army to enter Gyeonggi and form the Beijing Military Region together with the Beiyang Army, which is responsible for the security of the capital and the protection of the provincial legislators and high-level members of the Renaissance Association in the north; The middle strategy is to delay, neither reach an agreement nor break it lightly, and just consume it; The next strategy is to pull Yuan Shikai to Nanjing and select elite soldiers to guard the north.

Because, Yuan Shikai has been told that the next policy as a condition for peace talks, I believe that he will not choose, even if he agrees verbally, he will come up with a conspiracy to make the oath of office in the south come to naught. As for the other two options. Chen Wenqiang can be regarded as having achieved his goal.

Moreover, Chen Wenqiang decided to trap Yuan Shikai to provoke him or lure him to resort to tricks. Those old feudal tricks, Yuan Shikai probably doesn't think so, but if you look at it from a modern political perspective. It will reveal his psychology and make it appear in its original form.

Obviously, Yuan Shikai discussed with his staff and think tanks overnight and made adjustments. He was prepared to make big concessions, first to get the presidency, and then to use means to make it difficult to move the capital to Nanjing, and when those political enemies in the south arrived at his one-third of an acre, he could slowly solve the problem and finally achieve his goal.

But when Yuan Shikai came to Chen Wenqiang with wishful thinking. However, they were told that the peace talks would be held in three days as scheduled, that there was no need for the two sides to hold private meetings, and that all issues would be resolved at the negotiating table.

What's going on? Yuan Shikai and the others were confused, they had a long talk last night, and today they are as cold as ice and business?

Did Chen Wenqiang really want to do what he said when he left in anger last night? Yuan Shikai's heart suddenly became uneasy, and he was even more eager to see Chen Wenqiang to confirm the ominous feeling in his heart.

Chen Wenqiang was in the consulate in Tianjin, Germany. The telegraph was used to communicate and negotiate with the south. In addition to this, he made a request to the Germans. It was necessary to secretly lend a batch of weapons and ammunition from Qingdao to supplement Zhao Sheng's department in Jinan.

"Have the peace talks broken down? Or is there no sincerity in the peace talks at all? The German consul, Noelil, expressed surprise and puzzlement.

"Promoting peace with war is just a necessary preparation." Chen Wenqiang didn't tell the truth, but smiled faintly: "Negotiation without strength is surrender, and appropriate pressure is also a common method in negotiations." ”

Qingdao as a fortress of the Germans in the Far East. Naturally, there will be no shortage of ammunition and materials hoarded. Noelyi made a cautious statement about the figures that Chen Wenqiang said, and Chen Wenqiang sent a telegram to the governor of Qingdao.

Telegrams were sent one after another, with different ciphers and different places. Noelyi didn't know all about it though. But I also knew that something big was going to happen. As for the current situation in China, the German side is more inclined to the provisional government, not only because of Chen Wenqiang's relationship, but also because the provisional government has also adopted a pro-German and pro-American diplomatic strategy.

As for Yuan Shikai, it seems that he is more optimistic about the British, which naturally arouses the vigilance of the Germans. But the Great Powers were engaged in balance-of-power diplomacy, and Germany could not support it too obviously, and the Germans were more than willing to provide such secret assistance, whether it was military or technical personnel, or what they could provide.

"Our navy is growing stronger, and our government is willing to help if it wants to." During the casual conversation, Nouil again pitched, apparently not feeling enough about the revolutionary army taking the French and German armies.

"The Navy is too expensive!" Chen Wenqiang shook his head with a wry smile and said, "Your consul also knows the current situation in our country, and it is not easy to continue to develop and manufacture submarines. Your country has already provided a great deal of assistance in this regard, for which I and the Interim Government are deeply grateful. ”

"Submarines may not be a sign of the strength of the navy, and battleships are the giants of the sea and play a vital role." Noel didn't fully know the role of submarines, he was still the idea of a giant ship's cannon.

"It depends on which countries are being targeted." Chen Wenqiang said with a smile: "For example, Britain itself is short of resources and relies entirely on overseas colonies to provide it, and once maritime transportation is hit, the impact will be great." And those transport ships, I'm afraid they won't be the opponents of submarines, right? ”

Noelyi thought for a while and said: "I'm afraid that the current submarine is still not capable of such a task, and the endurance and attack capability are unsatisfactory." ”

"Deficiencies can be improved and remedied." Chen Wenqiang paused and said: "At present, haven't we overcome a lot of difficulties and greatly improved the performance of the submarine!" In view of its national strength, China can only adopt the strategy of quickly and subduing the enemy. ”

Noelyi spread his hands, expressing helplessness, but also said that he had ended the topic, and turned to other things related to Sino-German cooperation.

In fact, these are relatively normal business dealings, investment and construction, because the peace talks have not yet been completed, and the provisional government has not yet been recognized by the foreign powers, that is to say, there is no football membership, and the official agreement can only be drafted, and it can neither be made public nor implemented.

In this respect, Noryi hoped that the provisional government would prevail and become the sole government of China. Only in this way can the results of the Sino-German talks be put into practice.

However, the advantage of the Provisional Government lies in the fact that it occupies the south, which is relatively economically developed, and is also a key capital exporting area for Britain, France, the United States, and Germany. So, despite the lack of international recognition, the countries approached the interim government to ensure that the diaspora and the businesses investing were not affected, and wanted to reap more benefits from the new government, which was not firmly established.

Following the failure of the Harriman Plan, the United States once again launched the Knox Plan, that is, to build a new railway in the northeast to counter Japan's South Manchurian Railway and Russia's Eastern Railway. Steder served as a representative of the U.S. banking syndicate and negotiated with the Provisional Government to propose the Jin-Ai Railway Plan on the basis of the New French Railway.

After the Russo-Japanese War, relations between the United States and Japan deteriorated sharply, and in particular, Japan did not open the door for American capital to enter Manchuria as the United States expected, but was hostile to foreign capital in an attempt to dominate South Manchuria. Since taking office, Taft has actively pursued "gold-dollar diplomacy" to encourage financial investment in China, hoping that the economic display will give the United States a greater say in the region.

However, the interim government cannot easily make commitments, and can only hold general consultations on relevant matters. Given the existence of the Anglo-Japanese alliance, Britain would certainly favor Japan, and the idea of the United States trying to attract Britain to invest with it would hardly succeed. And if the United States and Germany join forces, will it be more powerful to break the hegemony of Japan and Russia in the northeast?

It is conceivable that once the Jin-Ai railway plan is made public, it will inevitably meet with strong opposition from Japan and Russia, and the United States will certainly have to bear pressure, and the Chinese government will be the most under pressure.

"The failure of the new French railway should be a lesson for us to learn." Noelyi expressed cautious concern about this, "The Japanese and Russian forces in Manchuria are real and very powerful, and due to geopolitical relations, it is difficult for European and American countries to provide timely support to your government after the outbreak of a prominent incident." ”

Chen Wenqiang nodded lightly, yes, if you want to break the Japanese and Russian invasion of the Northeast, it is unrealistic to expect European and American countries. Even if you want to fight it on your own, now is not the time. (To be continued.) )