Chapter 265: Zhu Erdian's Analysis

"Mr. Minister, I'm sorry to disturb your dance. Pen Fun Cabinet www.biquge.info" Cusponzi shook hands with the French minister, only said a polite word, and then hurriedly turned to the topic, saying: "The Chinese government has brazenly marched into Outer Mongolia, and our government cannot ignore it. ”

The French minister shook his head and said, "Nothing, just a verbal report on the matter." ”

Cuspenzi was very dissatisfied with the French minister's understatement, and could not help reminding: "China has reached an understanding with your country on the issue of Outer Mongolia, is your country not ready to exert influence?" ”

The French minister pursed his lips and said: "However, our government has also reminded your country before that it is not in the interests of the Entente to involve our energies in the Far East, and our focus is on seeing Germany, the most vicious enemy, in Europe. ”

I see. If China succeeds easily in Outer Mongolia, France will naturally be optimistic about its success, and will even take the opportunity to make certain demands on the Chinese government.

Now, seeing that China's tough stance and the danger of intensifying the conflict between China and Russia, we do not want to offend the Chinese government for the time being, nor do we want Russia to be caught in a big and protracted war in order to weaken Russia's military power on the Eastern Front. And France is focusing on Morocco and has no time to think about anything else.

The French minister looked at Cusponzi's face and said: "The efficiency of your government is really slow, and to this day, it still has not come up with a general response strategy. On the contrary, the swift response of the Chinese government was unexpected by all of us, and with strong support from virtue, it should have a temporary advantage in military power. If a large-scale war with China begins in the Far East, this is exactly what the Germans are doing. So, in my opinion, your country can back down. Wait until you're ready before acting. ”

"How do you back down?" Coupunsky asked with a gloomy face, France is Russia's closest ally, but in the Russo-Japanese War, it stood by and watched because of the Anglo-Japanese alliance, and now it is repeating its old tricks.

"From independence to autonomy." The French minister said: "Calm the emotions of the Chinese and ease the tense atmosphere." If your country agrees. My Government is ready to unite the countries with mediation in order to conclude a clause in favour of Russia. If it drags on, it will be difficult to change the fait accompli by the time the Chinese military makes significant progress. ”

Kupenschi groaned and didn't speak, wondering if it would be feasible to do so.

The French Minister continued: "At present, the construction of a strategic railway to Germany and the building of a navy are the priorities of your country, and if the question of Mongolia is resolved, my Government is willing to finance both of them. ”

Or do you want Russia to give up some of its interests in the Far East and help you keep an eye on Germany. Or rather, to hold one of Germany's legs, so that he would not dare to go to war with France easily.

Kupenschi nodded noncommittally and said, "As for your government's proposal, I must ask for instructions before I can reply."

The French minister nodded perfunctorily, turned and walked away, his eyes wandering around to find the beautiful young lady to dance again.

With some hesitation, Kupenschi walked to the Japanese minister, since the specific plan drawn up by the Japanese government for the partition of Inner Mongolia had not yet been approved by the Russian government. It is true that he could not come up with much to induce Japan to take action as well. In addition, Japan was constrained by the British. I also feel the growing influence of the United States and Germany in China, and want them to help the Russians to fight the fire, I am afraid that this idea is not optimistic. Of course, if Russia succeeds in Outer Mongolia, the cunning Japanese will not mind a piece of the pie in Inner Mongolia.

Moreover, Japan's domestic political situation has not been stable since the promulgation of the Imperial Defense Policy in 1907. That was the beginning of the arms race between the Japanese Army and the Japanese Navy.

After the Russo-Japanese War, the international economic crisis continued to oppress the Japanese economy, and trade exceeded one after another, and the principal and interest of foreign debt issued for the Russo-Japanese War exceeded twice the annual budget, reaching one billion yen. In addition, Japan did not receive war reparations, and had to borrow foreign debts in order to repay its debts and interest.

Therefore, if Japan wants to expand its military, it can only rely on raising taxes and cutting administrative and fiscal expenditures. As a result, the Cabinet and the Ministry of Finance tried their best to curb the budget requirements for the expansion of the army and navy, which led to a resurgence between the navy and the army over limited budgetary resources, and Prime Minister Katsura Taro even resigned this year.

The army and navy had to embark on the path of political mobilization in order to meet their respective appropriation requirements, and the military forces began to intervene in the political sphere, which was delicately balanced by the forces of the political parties and the feudal lords, and the balance was shaken.

However, the ruling Saionji cabinet was trying to balance the huge fiscal deficit left over from the Russo-Japanese War, and due to financial difficulties, Saionji did not support the army's expansion proposal, and entrusted the army's veteran Aritomo Yamaguchi to suppress this demand.

At the same time, in order to cope with the military threat posed by the completion of the Trans-Siberian Railway and the completion of the Amur Railway, Japan is also willing to fight a war between China and Russia. If China wins, the threat from Russia will be reduced, and Japan will not increase its troops in Korea to reduce its financial burden; If Russia wins, Japan can take advantage of the opportunity to fall into the trap and grab more benefits from China in Manchuria.

No one is a fool, everyone has their own little abacus, Cusponzi shook his head a little helplessly, instead of dealing with the cunning little Japan, it is better to go to the British Minister to China, Zhu Erdian. In any case, Britain has the most influence and influence in China. Although there are contradictions between Britain and Russia, it seems that they can be resolved. It shouldn't be a bad idea to test the story before waiting for the Russian government's decision.

At this time, Kupenschi suddenly realized that Russia had indeed acted hastily and overly optimistically on the issue of plotting the independence of Outer Mongolia. If it is expected that the Chinese government will take a tough stance and will enjoy strong support from the United States, it should first engage in in-depth diplomacy so that the Russian government does not fall into isolation on this issue.

Britain has been spying on Tibet, and Foreign Secretary Gray has said that Britain "wishes to preserve Tibet's autonomy under China's suzerainty" and is preparing to send a representative to Lhasa to test Russia's intention to relax the "Anglo-Russian Agreement." Restrictive clauses in the Tibet Article. But the Russian government argued that Mongolia "cannot be regarded as Tibet's equivalent" outside of the Anglo-Russian agreement. The point is clear: Russia does not intend to trade the benefits it has so far achieved in Outer Mongolia for the benefits that Britain intends to obtain in Tibet. The quid pro quo that Russia was counting on was in Afghanistan. In other words, concessions must be made to the Afghanistan and Tibet Treatises in order to amend the Anglo-Russian Agreement.

Meantime. Because no suitable puppet has been found in Xinjiang, the Russian government has expressed to Britain that it is "willing to make it clear that Russia has no intention of taking over the jurisdiction of China's Turkestan (i.e., Xinjiang)"; "In any part of China's Xinjiang there will be no question of Russia acting without prior notice to Great Britain". This also broke Britain's assumption that it would acquiesce in Russia's aggressive expansion in Xinjiang in exchange for revising the Anglo-Russian Agreement.

If the Russian government had made some compromises, it would have made a big difference, Kupenschi is not sure, but it should be better than it is now. At present, the Chinese government has completed the mobilization of troops. When Britain began its military operation, it wanted to favor Russia, and I am afraid that it would have to carefully consider whether it was feasible. In the face of the surging public anger instigated by the Chinese government, coupled with the eyeing of the United States and Germany, it is indeed necessary to consider carefully if they want to protect their inherent commercial interests. If nothing else, Russia, is a good example of the opposite.

Thinking of this, Kupenschi's mouth was a little bitter. Russia's Daosheng Bank's business volume has fallen to an all-time low, and the loss of deposits is still accelerating, although it is still struggling, but it is only to protect the bank's credibility. You know, if the brand falls, it will be over in the future. Russian goods have plummeted, foreign companies dealing in Russian goods are on the verge of closure, and factories run by Russians have completely ceased production. The losses are huge.

Jurdian's eyes had already seen Kupenschi, but he pretended not to see it. He watched with interest as his wife and Ah Xuan were admiring and discussing a delicate Sichuan silver ornament. This is a small gift from Ah Xuan to the ministers' wives at the banquet.

"Ah, is it really the bracelet?" The minister's wife suddenly let out a soft exclamation as if she had discovered a new world, gently rolled up Ah Xuan's sleeves, and asked with wide eyes: "The one at the exhibition, auctioned off?" ”

Ah Xuan didn't expect to be discovered. A little helplessly, he said: "It was the pair of bracelets, which my husband bought at the auction." ”

The minister's wife was full of envy, and couldn't help glaring at Zhu Erdian, and everyone understood what it meant.

Zhu Erdian smiled bitterly and said, "It is a well-known thing that Mr. Secretary of State is rich. The patent fees for the invention of drugs alone are a considerable amount. ”

"Excuse me, Mr. Jurdian." Kupenschi walked up to him and greeted him politely.

Zhu Erdian turned his head to look, immediately stood up with a smile, and said, "Mr. Kupenschi, why are you so late?" There's a great show just now, and you missed it. ”

"That's a shame." Kupensiqi squeezed out a few smiles, greeted the minister's wife and Ah Xuan, and whispered to Zhu Erdian: "Mr. Zhu Erdian, can you talk to you about something in private?" ”

Zhu Erdian nodded, walked to a corner with Kupensiqi, looked at Kupensiqi with a smile, and waited for him to ask.

"My government is looking at amending the Anglo-Russian Agreement, which I think is good news for the British Empire." Kupenschi said.

"That's really good news." Zhu Erdian nodded, and then stopped talking.

Kupenschi was very worried that he was suspicious, and everyone seemed to have a gloating smile, he groaned for a while, and had to continue: "Although it is still being studied and discussed, as long as it is done secretly, it should have nothing to do with what your country is doing in Tibet, even if our government does not approve the amendment, but it just cannot face the treaty between our two countries, and it should have no impact on your country's actions." ”

Zhu Erdian nodded with a smile and said, "The British Empire government believes that it is too early to talk about the Tibet issue at this time, and there are no plans for this at present. ”

Russia wants to pull Britain into the water, this trick is not good, Britain has intentions against Tibet, but it will certainly not choose this time to launch. And Kupens pulled the tiger skin as a banner, Zhu Erdian was clear in his heart. The Russian government had no intention of studying any changes to the Anglo-Russian Agreement, and the Tsars were worried about their haemophilia-stricken crown prince, and were expecting the Rasputin master to "perform" the crown prince's treatment again.

Kupenzi was very helpless in the face of Zhu Erdian, who did not advance in oil and salt, so he had to say his intentions, "Although Mongolia still has a suzerainty relationship with China, it is actually independent in all aspects except for political and territorial issues; And it also has a say in political and territorial issues. If our government recognizes China's suzerainty and Outer Mongolia changes from independence to autonomy, what will the British Imperial government say? ”

Zhu Erdian admired Kupenszi's somewhat low-key attitude, and he paused for a moment and said: "Although the recognition of China's suzerainty is a formality, it may still help to ease the current tensions between China and Russia." Your country should understand that it is impossible to unite all Mongols in one country and to obtain recognition from all countries. Moreover, the independence of Outer Mongolia has caused unease in other countries, and your country should reconsider the matter with renewed caution. The British Empire, on the other hand, always thought it would be more advantageous to maintain the formal unity of China. ”

Kupenschi sighed softly, Jurdian was against Russia, or rather against Britain before it had achieved its goal. And the Russian government ......... It seems that a few battles with the Chinese army are inevitable. After all, the Chinese government has only made a tough stance, and the combat effectiveness of the army, and the government's determination to fight are not very certain at this time.

Zhu Erdian continued: "I believe that an armed conflict with China is not what your government wants. But the Chinese government should have been prepared for a long time, and your government didn't expect it, right? ”

"Prepared?" Kupenschi was taken aback, he had only been a minister for a few months, and naturally he did not know as much about the situation in China as Zhu Erdian.

Zhu Erdian shook his head slightly, feeling very puzzled by the fact that Russia was so slow to react. He slowly explained: "At the beginning of the establishment of the Chinese government, the earliest military regions were Shenyang, Lanzhou and Beijing, and the supply of ordnance and materials to these three military regions was also given priority. In particular, the Lanzhou Military Region and the Shenyang Military Region have seen an astonishing rate of military expansion. According to uncertain intelligence, before Outer Mongolia declared independence, the Lanzhou Military Region should have had at least six divisions, and the Shenyang Military Region was about the same number. ”

Kupenschi nodded thoughtfully and said softly: "No wonder the Chinese government reacts so quickly, could it be that the Chinese government has long ago made Russia an enemy?" (To be continued.) )