The second more

Perhaps it was Yanayev's words that inspired Dobrynin, who had been preparing for his visit to South Korea before he began, and the elderly man burst out with the energy of his youth and began to formulate various policies against South Korea.

In the Soviet army, Yanayev was good at promoting young people, but in politics, without exception, he was old = people-politics-governance, and Yanayev firmly believed that the experience needed in international affairs was far more important than imagination. Therefore, Yanayev was rarely promoted to the position of member of the Central Political and Political Bureau or other high-ranking members of the Central Committee, and the only political star who was considered the most promising political star, Comrade Putin, was never moved or promoted to the post of deputy minister of internal affairs.

Because Dobrynin was included in the inner circle of the delegation to South Korea, he had better access to certain high-level intelligence than he had when he was under Gromyko. At least even the arms sales for this visit to the ROK, the negotiation process, and the political bargaining chips have been arranged, and people cannot but admire the great amount of preliminary work put in by the central authorities.

"The 1134A-class missile cruiser, the Kenda-class missile cruiser, and the Type 956 destroyer Excellence were sold to the South Korean government, and by the way, some decommissioned BM21 multiple rocket launchers were sold, it seems that this visit to South Korea is completely to squeeze the surplus value of the other party."

Dobrynin could even imagine how Pavlov would intimidate the South Korean delegation at the negotiating table, and there was a great feeling that if you didn't buy our products, the Korean people's army would move south. I wonder how Kim Yong-sam, who has been treated as an outcast by President Mario, will feel when he is shivering in front of the torrent of steel?

Pavlov didn't feel the same way, weapons were just a way to exchange for foreign exchange in his eyes, and the developed military industry of the Soviet Union contributed at least 10 percent to economic growth. The more unpredictable the situation abroad became, the more open the Soviet arms sales market became.

"Well, Consultant Dobrynin, that's not the point for you. I wonder how you would resolve the conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union if it really came to a point where the contradictions were irreconcilable. Pavlov asked, it was hard to imagine that the man in his seventies, who had played a pivotal role in the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. Although Moscow had not treated him well before, and even considered Dobrynin to be a sympathizer of the Western world, the US ambassador to the Soviet Union during the Carter period, Thun, unceremoniously pointed out that Dobrynin was not our friend at any time, and that he was a staunch believer in Soviet ideology, form, and national interests.

Although he once became the secretary of the Central Committee, the Secretarial Department, and the head of the International Department, Dobrynin is still a special presence in the top level of Moscow.

"The international political game is nothing more than a matter of interests, and when there is a conflict of interests, we must consider one thing clearly, whether this interest is worth the cost to save. At the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis, I was the first to realize that the United States was defending its core interests, which is why the United States showed such a crazy attitude when Cuba built a missile base. Compared with Khrushchev's handling of the Turkish missile incident, it is clear that their methods are more tough. ”

Dobrynin is immersed in memories of the past, "But the whole world remembers the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the vast majority of people do not know about the missile incident in Turkey, why is that?" Because the attitude of the United States is tougher than ours. ”

"You mean, the Soviet Union in this Asia-Pacific crisis has shown no less attitude than the United States during the Cuban Missile Crisis?" Pavlov asked.

"It's one thing to be tough, it's another thing to be flexible. At least everyone knows that it is an agreement where interests are compromised and then agreed. The Taiwan issue does not belong to the core interests of the United States, but it is a ban on China. The US aircraft carrier battle group has repeatedly provoked and tested China's bottom line, and it will only suffer the worst results. ”

The worst possible outcome? The only thing that Pavlov could think of was for the Dongfeng missile to fall on the deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier and then completely wipe the Pacific Seventh Fleet off the map. Judging by China's current reaction, this possibility is as high as 170 percent, and if the support of the Soviet Union is added, then this possibility will rise.

"The Soviet Union? Of course, the Soviet Union will stand firmly on the side of the anti-American coalition, but there is a very critical issue. That is when both sides are about to touch the bottom line, and the Soviet Union will step up to play the role of offshore balancer. After all, we can't let a world war break out. Dobrynin had said so much that he was only halfway there.

"I think the most likely scenario is that the Soviet Pacific Fleet will directly intervene in the dispute, creating a three-legged situation in the strait area. The three U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups, with the Chinese and Soviet sides controlling one Kiev-class and the Ulyanovsk. It's a little disadvantaged, but it's not bad enough to be suppressed by the Americans. ”

After listening to Dobrynin's account, Pavlov finally knew why he wanted to bring this retired old guy back into Moscow's political circles, and the only person who could guess the movements of the top level of the central government in a few words was Dobrynin, who had studied the situation all his life.

Indeed, according to the current situation, the worst-case scenario is for a conflict between the three countries to break out in the Asia-Pacific waters, and it is not clear how it will end in the end.

"Prime Minister Pavlov, there is another very important point, which you must not forget. If you let go at the right time, you can get a greater profit, and if you hold on tightly, you may change things in the middle of the process. ”

This is the lesson that Dobrynin summed up in the greatest crisis of the twentieth century, although at first Khrushchev did not choose to evacuate the ship because of his personal face, but later after the two sides reached an agreement, Khrushchev also achieved his goal. The Americans withdrew the medium-range missiles deployed by Turkey, while Castro's regime remained.

Cuba, a country located in the sensitive zone of the United States, threatens the throat of the United States like a needle.

"So the Soviet Union should know where it is, and we were supposed to take advantage of the Asia-Pacific crisis to expand our sphere of influence, and the final outcome was to calm the Asia-Pacific region." So in the end, the status quo is maintained. And the Soviet Union won a steady win. What General Secretary Yanayev meant was that in this crisis, the United States could only be the loser, and the Soviet Union would be the ultimate winner. (To be continued.) )