"Shi Xiao Shulang, can the battle still be deduced?" Li Jing asked.

This Li Jing really can't imagine that the battle process can still be deduced, which is simply unimaginable. If a battle can be deduced, is it still a battle? To find out why the ancients said that the veteran was a top trick, in fact, because the veteran had experienced a lot of battles, he could estimate that the combat experience was very rich. Therefore, they can have enough battlefield judgment and enough experience to judge and solve various situations. And this is actually a factor rooted in the human relationship of Chinese civilization, which advocates the use of people without suspicion in China, and is accustomed to using human feelings to manage. Under this model, we attach importance to the communication between people, pay attention to people, and do not pay attention to things. So they are more willing to trust one's judgment. And under this model, it is easy to cause the collapse of the country once the trust is not human, and it is easy to cause the collapse of the country in the end! China's idea of employing people without suspicion and suspicion depends too much on the ability of a certain person and his moral character. This is true even in war, where there is too much reliance on the main general, which will lead to a situation where the veteran is favored.

The West, on the other hand, is adept at data reasoning and then using scientific methods to explain war. Excessive use of rational data to analyze wars is not conducive to their planning at the strategic level and to their ability to command in terms of sensibility. So in the end, the East and the West learn from each other to make up for it, and the West learns the strategic ideas in Sun Tzu's Art of War. China has also learned from the West's ideas on staff construction, and analyzed and deduced the war situation through various data to make up for the lack of implementation level. However, this is also based on the fact that the East and the West have exchanged ideas from each other and complemented each other's strengths.

But at this time, the idea of using data to analyze war was not at all in the Tang Dynasty.

"General Li, you might as well let me deduce it for you! Go get a map! Shi Bufan said to the palace servant next to him.

After the map arrived, it was obviously a map of the Chang'an area.

Then Shi Bufan took some beans as chess pieces, and then said: "We can use all kinds of beans to lead different numbers of troops, and then you think about the deduction of the terrain in this combat process." Then we can work out the time, place, weather and other factors in advance. Then try to think clearly about the time, place and people in the war. Even, the lethality of different arms and the method of killing must have an approximate data. Then, when we deduce the battle between the two sides, we can use part of the arithmetic basis to add, subtract, multiply and divide, and finally get the results of the battle and the proportion of casualties on both sides. ”

"Of course, in order to reflect the serendipity in war. We can use the dice in a casino to throw random shots in combination with the terrain, so that we can simulate all kinds of accidental situations. Then, you can divide into two groups and do the simulation. You can try it, use different methods to conduct deduction operations, and then you divide into two groups to do it, and then General Li and I will be the referees for you, what do you think? Shi Bufan said.

The royal students found it interesting, and then picked up the map and simulated it at each end of the classroom. Then Shi Bufan and Li Jing were in the middle, and they were referees. As for the changes on both sides, they can be helped by the corresponding servants, who themselves cannot touch the chessboard. However, it was very interesting, and it made them feel as if they were playing chess, but they also felt very interesting.

"Shi Bufan, school scholar, your method is too ......" Li Jing was suddenly speechless.

Li Jing never dreamed that there would be such a way to play. At first glance, this deduction seems to be a play house, completely like a toy for a child to play with. But after thinking about it carefully, Li Jing couldn't help but feel a burst of horror, because this was simply terrifying. Don't look at it as a small game, but the things contained in it are completely different. Because this deduction process, although not necessarily very accurate, but it has a very important reference role. Especially for the confrontation between soldiers and soldiers, it is very helpful for combat.

Although the current deduction rules are still relatively crude, there are not many things considered in this deduction process. For the time being, it only takes into account the relationship between the troops, the terrain, the weather, the lethality of the troops, and the restraint of the troops, and as for other morale, logistics, or internal problems of their own army, they have not been fully considered. However, Li Jing believes that these futures can also be added, and other parameters can be gradually added to this deduction process. In the future, not only these possibilities, but also logistics, morale and even various factors can also be added, and they are not static.

At present, Shi Bufan has just given a beginning, as for the future, you can invite some experienced generals as needed, let them gradually add various elements to it, and then make this "game" more perfect, so that it may be similar to a real battlefield.

So Li Jing suddenly thought about it carefully, and suddenly felt extremely frightened. Because of this method, it is completely possible for some people to deduce before the battle. It may be of great reference value to have some people try to deduce it based on the information that has been obtained. In the future, the rules of this "game" will become more and more perfect, and the effect of such deduction will become more and more realistic. As long as the rules are perfected as much as possible, the simulation situation on the battlefield will become more and more realistic, and the results will be closer and closer to the real battlefield situation.

So Li Jing felt really terrible, in the past, he thought that he was more of a veteran, and he was experienced. However, if your opponent is fighting in this way, you will also conduct a deduction before each battle. Then a group of people deduced the occupation, and then simulated the opponent's combat ideas, and then empathized as much as possible, and then plugged all kinds of loopholes. After this deduction, all unexpected situations have been tested as clearly as possible, and even several sets of plans can be formulated in advance.

And Li Jing felt that if he was against such an opponent, then his opponent would not be one or two people, but would have to fight with countless people on the other side. Even Li Jing may not be able to have the confidence to brainstorm with the other party to achieve the result.

"Shixiao Shulang, what is this called?" Li Jing asked.

Shi Bufan replied: "This is called war game deduction, which can deduce the war process as much as possible in advance." Don't look at him as a game at the moment, but in the future, the rules will become more and more perfect, so the next step is to let the generals get as much assistance as possible to judge. This kind of let the two sides deduce, and then deduce the battle process as much as possible, and then all the problems are considered. As much as possible, we can ensure that there will be no loopholes, and then even if the enemy has any combat plan, it can be plugged as soon as possible. Therefore, even a veteran may not be an opponent! The so-called three stinkers, the top one Zhuge Liang, this is actually a brainstorming. By letting everyone brainstorm through their own thinking under certain rules. No matter how old those veterans are, they are all alone. One person's idea can never be as perfect as a group of people! Maybe the veteran has a lot of experience, but that's just one person. And although these young people have little battlefield experience, they can brainstorm and then make them think more through this little rule. This can ensure that the loopholes are reduced as much as possible, and even veterans can't seize the opportunity! ”

Li Jing suddenly fell into a wry smile, this is fatal. Li Jing himself is a veteran, of course he knows what the process will be. No matter how good the veteran is, it's just one person. And no matter how good a person is, it is impossible to defeat a group of people. Brainstorming, this is indeed a good idea. In the past, although many generals also had some strategists, these strategists often said that the public was reasonable, and the mother-in-law said that the mother-in-law was reasonable. Each strategist had his own advice, and in the end, the generals did not dare to make a decision easily.

The reason why we attach importance to veterans is actually based on his experience? A veteran has experienced enough wars, then he has a lot of experience in his heart, and he can have more things to stay. But the biggest problem is that the experience of these veterans is completely aware of it but does not know why, this is completely a person's experience problem, which cannot be passed on. This is the so-called saying that can only be understood but not spoken.

In ancient times, the Chinese almost did not use data analysis to analyze local methods, and even Sun Wu was very vague about the data in these wars, and could not have an accurate mathematical statistics. So this model is completely dependent on the personal experience of the generals. The war of the Chinese is art, while the war of the Westerners is science. Chinese generals rely more on the right brain to fight, while Western generals rely more on the left brain to fight. Therefore, in terms of strategy, the West in ancient times was inferior to China, but in the execution of campaign tactics, China obviously had some disadvantages. The cultural differences between the two sides have contributed to this result.

Shi Bufan's war game deduction is actually to turn China's war from art to science. It has become a science like a data stream, and the results of operations are analyzed through data analysis. Although it may not be absolutely accurate, it is definitely of profound reference value.

"The art of war in the past was rarely counted with arithmetic data, and almost all the art of war in the past was based on the personal experience of the writer. This kind of art of war, which relies on personal experience, has a strong personal mind in it, and it is easy to influence a person's thinking. For a high-ranking general and high-ranking official, naturally there is not much of a problem, because their direction is not there. However, as soldiers who carry out combat missions, they do not need those. They need real data, accurate data that they can see, touch, and want. You should let them know what the consequences will be if they do so, so that they can avoid the evil. And these are not found in any military book in the past. ”

"There is only accurate data statistics, through the statistics of each battle, and then accurate data analysis is derived. This is conducive to the middle and low-level officers and men to draw inferences about the battle and to draw conclusions quickly. And this data statistic can be used by everyone, and it will not be like the past method that can only be understood by relying on the accumulation of experience. Although this method is not precise and may not be absolutely correct, it is a very important reference. Otherwise, it is up to the Lord to judge one person, and that is playing with fire! ”

Shi Bufan knew that in the military aspect, later China had gradually learned from the West's statistics. After almost every army battle, there is a post-war summary. The post-war summary is actually a statistical data on written data, which is used to promote the whole army after summing up experience. After summarizing these data, they are also conducive to operational deduction. The summing up after one battle after another is conducive to those staff officers of all kinds to accurately judge the specific combat effectiveness of their own troops. Therefore, the later armies were also bigger and stronger, and no matter which commander came to command, there would be no major mistakes.

However, in ancient times, this practice of completely pinning the army on a certain commander would cause the army to either win or be defeated, and the risk was very high. Moreover, in ancient times, there was no summary of combat data, and it completely relied on personal perceptual experience, which was not very reliable.

Therefore, whether future generations want to admit it or not, in terms of war thinking, they have also changed from the emotional thinking of the past to the scientific thinking similar to the West. By learning from the West to establish combat deduction, there are also various statistics to assist decision-making, rather than relying on the personal experience of the commander. At the campaign and tactical level, the accumulation of this kind of data is the most important basis for reflecting the decision-making ability of the middle and low levels.

Shi Bufan then asked: "General Li, do you have the confidence to be able to lead troops to fight and win a group of people?" ”

Li Jing replied: "Perhaps, it's good that I can only maintain my undefeated!" ”

Li Jing is indeed like this, he knows that once this method is used to conduct deduction operations, then Li Jing's opponent is definitely not the opponent's main general. Because Li Jing felt that the other party's model seemed to be a "dissection" of himself, and the other party conducted an autopsy of himself from beginning to end, from the inside out. What I wanted to do, I was analyzed one by one, dissected one by one, and then dealt with it.

But if Li Jing wants to take the initiative to attack, where can he find loopholes? No matter how Li Jing is, he is just a person, not a god, and of course he can't analyze the thoughts of every staff officer of his opponent. Everyone has their own ideas, can Li Jing guess the thoughts of each of the other parties? What's more, the other side has people from all walks of life, and they will try their best to improve the battle plan, Li Jing is just one person, I'm afraid that he will not be able to find loopholes from the other party even if he thinks about vomiting blood.

Therefore, the other party can "dissect" himself at any time, but he can't have enough "computing power" to deduce the other party, so Li Jing knows that he will inevitably be defeated in the face of this situation. Perhaps, in the face of this mode of war, Li Jing can only maintain his undefeated is already a genius. The other party can find its own loopholes from many aspects, from top to bottom, from the battlefield formation to logistics, and may even be able to find its own loopholes in all aspects. Then Li Jing is really going to be finished, as long as there is a loophole, the defeat has become inevitable.

This is not a fair duel at all, a group of people, even if the quality of a single person is inferior to you, but people are united according to a group of people under a reasonable mode of operation, then you are a genius alone, it is impossible to fight against a group of people. This mode of wargame deduction can be to give full play to the extreme of one person's calculation of shortness and multi-person calculation. Li Jing knew that this would completely change the existing mode of warfare.