Problems related to the Kurds. [Full text reading] is certainly not a trivial problem.

In the words of the US Assistant Secretary of State, who dealt with Iraqi ethnic affairs during the Iraq War, the Kurdish issue is the biggest ethnic issue in the Middle East, and the scope and difficulty of resolving it surpass that of the Palestinian-Israeli issue, and the Kurdistan region is the powder keg of the Middle East.

The main reason for the complexity of the Kurdish issue is that it involves several countries.

The Kurds are a nomadic people in the West Asian Bed region, belonging to the Indo-Mediterranean type of the Europa race, mainly distributed in the Caihaoros Mountains and Taurus Mountains, and the main gathering places are from Kermansha in Iran in the east, the Eurates River in Turkey in the west, Yerevan in Armenia in the north, Kirkuk in Iraq in the south, and some in Aleppo, Syria. They are in Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and a few in Lebanon, Afghanistan, Jordan, and Russia. The Kurds are the fourth largest ethnic group in the Middle East by population after Arabs, Turks and Persians, and the oldest ethnic group in the Middle East. For more than two thousand years, the Kurds have lived in the mountains of Kurdistan. Lives a simple nomadic life.

In a sense. The Kurds are the most unfortunate and the strongest people in the Middle East.

As a large ethnic group with a population of tens of millions, the Kurds do not have a state of their own. Historically, in the late Arab Empire. The Kurds once established several feudal dynasties. Subsequently, the Turks and Mongols invaded the Kurdish areas for several days. From the time of the thugs to the old century, the Kurds remained semi-autonomous under the Ottoman Empire, serving as a buffer zone between Turkey and Iran. Due to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the Kurds were divided into several countries. Although the Treaty of Sèvres signed in the year of the year provided for the creation of an autonomous Kurdistan. However, the treaty was never ratified. After 3 years. The Treaty of Lausanne replaced the Treaty of Sèvres. But Kurdistan and the Kurds are not mentioned. In the past few years, Iraq has been hit by two Kurdish wars for autonomy and independence. Given the government's cold shoulder, Turkey's Kurds are even called mountain Turks. Iran's Kurds are not only oppressed by the government, but also have to endure religious persecution by Shiites. Relatively speaking, Iraq's Kurds have been less repressed. In the last year, before the Iran-Iraq war ended, the Iraqi government began to suppress the Kurds, resulting in an influx of millions of Iraqi Kurds into Turkey and Iran. Until this time. It is the Kurdish struggle for autonomy and independence that has attracted great attention from the international community.

It was the Iraq War that really turned the Kurdish issue into an international issue at the beginning of the century, because the first Iraqi president supported by the United States was the Kurds.

The problem of the Kurds is far from being the problem of a county family.

Because of some ultra-ethnic policies adopted during Sadabha's administration, there are only a few Kurds in Iraq. It accounts for only about about the total Kurdish population.

In fact, even the Western countries' affection for the Kurds is complicated.

Historically, Saladin Yusuf Ayyub, the founding monarch of the Ayyubid dynasty of Egypt, was the most famous Kurd. His greatest impact on history was the seizure of Jerusalem, which brought about a turning point in the struggle between Muslims and Christians here.

The mother is undoubted. Westerners can't forget this history.

At the beginning of the century, when the U.S. military invaded Baghdad, overthrew Saddam's regime, and sent a Kurdish to the Iraqi presidential palace, Hollywood's Fox Company made a controversial and criticized film called "The Heavenly Dynasty", which tells the story of the French blacksmith Barrian, known as the "defender of Jerusalem", and the "villain" in the story is the Kurdish Saladin. Because the U.S. military was trapped in Iraq at the time of its release and faced various social and ethnic contradictions, the film was not only banned in the Islamic world, but also boycotted in many other countries, and was even considered by many to create contradictions between Muslims and Christians.

The question is, does the conflict between Muslims and Christians need to be created?

There is no doubt that the Kurds are the wretched ones caught between these two mighty forces.

The manifesto of the Kurdish Independence Struggle Party is most straightforward: the future of the Kurds cannot depend on anyone else.

Whether it is the United States, the menacing republics, or the cautious European Union of Russia, which wants to intervene in the Middle East. The Kurdish issue was not treated as a problem, and no effort was made to solve it. In the final analysis, it is because the Kurdish issue is too broad, no matter what it is. If the country really wants to solve the Kurdish problem sincerely, it will offend several countries. The tear book bar throws off the concave coffee factory and tells less, Xia Chop, Xia more

If the political demands of the Kurds are followed, the final solution is the creation of Kurdistan, that is, the establishment of a Kurdish state in areas where Kurds live. Because the geographical concept of Kurdistan spans Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Armenia, the political concept of Kurdistan must also cross these countries, and part of the land must be ceded from these countries.

There is a land issue involved. No country is negotiable.

What's worse is that these countries involve almost all the power in the Middle East and the Near East, and even the major powers that almost hum influence. Round reading the most chopped chapters, choose the tear book, throw the concave Peng complete

Turkey needless to say. Because of the punishment of "leaving Asia and joining Europe" by Greece, the hope of not becoming a European Ming was shattered. So I had to catch Purple Feather in a sense. Turkey is also the most important and solid ally of the United States in the Middle East. As a result, Turkey is also the only Islamic country that maintains close relations with Israel. What's worse is that during Saddam's administration, the Kurds living in northern Iraq were bloodbathed. In addition to the mysterious disappearance of a million Kurds, there is also an influx of millions of Kurds into Turkey. As a direct consequence, Turkey has become the country with the highest concentration of Kurds, with nearly half of the Kurds in Turkey. In other words, if the US authorities support the independent statehood of the Kurds, it will be Turkey that will be affected by the brunt. In the relations between Israel and the United States, especially after the Iranian war, the US authorities will not be able to make a fuss about the Kurdish issue in any way if they must firmly control the situation of the Turkish-US and the United States in order to effectively control the Middle East region. As a result, the Kurdish president, who was supported by the United States during the Iraq War, only served one term, and was subsequently ousted in the general election. In a sense, it is much better to have the Shiites in control of Iraq than to turn Iraq into the "cradle of the Kurdish independence movement."

In fact, during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, the United States engaged in double standards on the Kurdish issue in order to win over Turkey to complete its strategic encirclement of the Soviet Union. Then. In order to eliminate the Kurdish independence movement, the Turkish authorities not only called the Kurds mountain Turks. It also forcibly changed the folk traditions of the Kurds and brutally suppressed the Kurdish movement for autonomy and independence. According to a survey conducted by Amnesty International, the number of Kurds in Turkey has dwindled during the Lichenqin years, with only a few of them going into exile in neighboring areas such as Iran, Syria and Iraq. In a sense, Saddam's cruelty to the Kurds was to emulate the Turkish government, and the international community did not do anything with Saddam Hussein at that time.

Until the recent years of force. When Saddam Hussein fell into the hands of the US military, the US authorities sentenced Saddam Hussein to death for committing genocide in the northern region and committing crimes against humanity.

Iran doesn't need to say much. For several years, the Iranian government has not relaxed its repressive campaign against the Kurds. Although the Iranian authorities have never released data on the Kurdish population in the country, it is estimated that "after the Islamic Revolution." By the time of the concave years, the number of Kurds in Iran had decreased from the highest number of near-burners to Jinwan. In fact. In the period of the Pahlavi dynasty before the Islamic Revolution. Because Iran is the most important ally of the United States in the Middle East, even above Turkey later. At that time, the United States successfully developed the talent network, and its own hand-operated "Tomcat" fighter jets were first sold to Iran, and only to Iran. It can be said that if the Pahlavi dynasty had not fallen, Turkey's importance in the US global strategic system would have been greatly reduced, so the West, led by the United States, turned a blind eye to the persecution of the Kurds by the Iranian authorities. To be fair, more than half of the Kurds in Ruwan and later exiled around the world came from Iran.

Although Iran has long been a sworn enemy of the United States, it is impossible for the United States to use the Kurdish issue against Iran if it cannot put pressure on the Turkish authorities. In fact, with the principle of doing things in the United States, when it is attacking other countries with human rights issues everywhere. The fact that the United States has never blamed the Iranian authorities for persecuting the Kurds is enough to explain the embarrassing position of the United States on this issue.

Because Iraq broke free from U.S. control after the Iran War, Iraq is also not a paradise for Kurds. The tear book bar dumps the concave coffee factory less, more chopping, more

There are not many Kurds in Syria, Armenia and other countries.

Iran has close ties with Russia, Syria has close ties with the Republic, and Armenia is a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States and an ally of Russia.

It can be seen from this that the Kurdish problem is extremely complicated, there is no absolute need, and no one wants to get into trouble.

The problem is, it's necessary now.

In Li Cunxun's words, Iran's political instability and the president's struggle with the supreme spiritual leader have led to cracks in the originally monolithic Iran. When the so-called "flies don't bite seamless eggs" are united, the United States has no way to deal with Iran, as long as cracks appear, the United States has a way to create problems. Round reading the most chopped chapters, choose the tear book, throw the concave Peng complete

There is no doubt that it is too risky to go straight and the results are not obvious.

According to Pei Chengyi's judgment, because Iran has adhered to the anti-American line for many years, "anti-American" has become the basic ideology of the Iranians, so the direct intervention of the United States in Iran's internal affairs will have the opposite effect, that is, to unite the Iranians who were originally divided for the reform of the political system.

The only solution that the United States can take is one pound, and that is to indirectly undermine the stability of Iran's society.

In order to get the opportunity to meddle in Iran's affairs, the US authorities must create an appropriate justification.

Combine these two points. Creating ethnic conflicts is naturally the best option.

"The question is that the United States may not be able to intervene."

Li Cunxun smiled. motioned for Pei Chengyi to continue.

"Everybody knows. In the relations between the United States and Iran, even if the Kurdish issue is used to stir up Iran's ethnic contradictions in the international community, and then it is not the turn of the United States to send troops to Iran on the pretext of safeguarding the survival of the Kurds. More importantly, with us and Russia here, it is impossible in any case to adopt a similar resolution in the Security Council, thereby delegitimizing the actions of the United States. In this way, the United States insists on going its own way. It will only provoke the fire. When the time comes, even if we don't take action, we can take advantage of the anti-American sentiment of the Iranians to make the US authorities eat and go. If the United States retreats in the face of difficulties, it will be working in vain. Gave us the benefits of the milk small one with Russia. ”

"You're right, it's really ceded to us and Russia."

Pei Chengyi was stunned for a moment, and immediately came to his senses.

"Although the newly appointed Republican president is indeed not very good, the people who can live in the White House are not ordinary people, and it is impossible not to understand such a simple question." Li Cunxun smiled and said, "Even if the US military is nine out of ten, as long as the United States does not want to use trillions or even trillions to fight a large-scale regional war tens of thousands of kilometers away, then American GIs will not appear on the streets of Iran."

In fact, to achieve American interests. It doesn't have to be in the form of a military occupation, or even bring any benefit to the United States. Great power games are almost always zero-sum games. In many cases, to weaken an adversary is to realize one's own interests. For the United States, the reason why it is still stuck in the Middle East after the Iran war. And every now and then knock Iran a few times, just because at some point Iran can be used to weaken us. You have already mentioned at the beginning that if Iran is in a mess, we will definitely do something with Russia. How big is Iran? Even if there is a partition, there must be a natural boundary. To put it bluntly, as long as both we and Russia want to do something in Iran, the United States will not have to do anything, and it will be able to reap the benefits. ”

"It seems that I have thought about it simply."

"It's not that it's simple, it's that it's complicated."

Pei Chengyi smiled, indicating that he understood what Li Cunxun meant.

"Of course, it's not like we're not prepared for anything. Actually, several years ago! We know that the United States will try to use Iran against us, otherwise it will not be after Iran's economic reforms. Find ways to give away so many Hollywood blockbusters to Iran for free. At that time, Yuan said that the United States did not raise the issue of intellectual property rights with Iran, not because the US authorities wanted to help the Iranian people improve their cultural life, but because they wanted to engage in peaceful evolution in Iran. Li Cunxun smiled and said, "The point is, we are also happy for the United States to do this." ”

"In other words, Yuan started to prepare at that time?"

"It's not just preparation, in a sense, Iran's current problems are the result of our interaction with the United States."

"Interaction?"

Li Cunxun nodded, glanced at the document in Pei Chengyi's hand, and motioned Pei Chengyi to continue

See.

Pei Chengyi didn't ask much, and turned to the next page of the document.

"Maybe you won't believe it, but a lot of times, the hardest thing to believe is the truth."

When Li Cunxun said this. Pei Chengyi was indeed taken aback, because he happened to see something that made him completely unbelievable.

"If you really want to say it, no one will believe it." Li Cunxun smiled and said, "In Iran's political reform, although the president and the spiritual leader have the same understanding of the ultimate goal, that is, to establish a secular system in Iran that is not influenced by religion, that is, similar to the political system in Turkey, the two have completely different understandings of the specific steps of reform. ”

"It's really hard to believe."

"Appearances are surprising, and as long as you know the truth, you won't be surprised."

Pei Chengyi knew that Li Cunxun had goods in his stomach, so he put on a deaf look.

"One step means that Iranian society will be in turmoil for a period of time. For a country heavily influenced by religion. When the people lose their purpose in this life, they will certainly try to find comfort in religion. There is no doubt that such a reform will further strengthen the position of the spiritual leader, thereby significantly undermining the gains of political reform in Iran. What's more, even if Iran becomes a secular Islamic state, the spiritual leaders will be able to control the country in a variety of ways. In other words, in the end, Iran's political reforms are likely to fail. ”

"That is, we will support the Iranian president?"

"In fact, the United States also wants to support the Iranian president, but it doesn't have that opportunity." Li Cunxun smiled and said, "I personally know that Iran's supreme spiritual leader is trying to sabotage reform, and the Iranian president is desperately promoting reform." If the United States cannot overthrow the Iranian regime, the ideal option is to engage in peaceful evolution, the so-called color revolution, and turn Iran into a country that poses no threat to the United States. The problem is that the reform measures taken by the Iranian president are all in the direction of what we have learned, and coupled with the anti-American sentiment of the Iranian people, it is impossible for the United States to support the Iranian president. ”

"So our mission is to protect the Iranian president?"

"We're definitely going to make an effort, but now it looks like we're going to be too late to do anything." Li Cunxun paused a little and said, "Regarding the domestic situation in Iran, we have already negotiated with the US intelligence agencies. The hole cards are revealed. To put it bluntly, if the Iranian president had three longs and two shorts, even if he was killed by lightning while basking in the sun in the courtyard, we would not think that it was Allah's arrangement, but would think that it was deliberately done by some person or organization, and would retaliate with the most severe means. ”

Pei Chengyi frowned slightly. I feel that Li Cunxun's words are very familiar, as if I have seen them in a book.

"If you want to take revenge, you have to have a target for revenge. If the Iranian president is finished, if he kills the spiritual leader, he will definitely lose control and will not do us any good at all, so the target of retaliation cannot be the Iranian authorities. ”

"Then it can only be Turkey."

Li Cunxun smiled slightly, and his expression clearly told Pei Chengyi that he was right.